Toronto Raptors 2022 NBA Draft Day Primer

We’re hours away from the 2022 NBA Draft, and it’s time to review all the information relevant to Toronto’s draft activity tonight. The Raptors (for now) are expected to pick 33rd, sliding 13 spots due to the Goran Dragic/Thaddeus Young swap.

These past few days, we looked into some prospects that might be of interest in the Raptors’ range. We looked into Andrew Nembhard and Caleb Houstan’s CanCon and Fit. Since the Raptors could use a big or two, we looked into the bigs in the second round that come in different sizes and shapes in Jaylin Williams, David Roddy, and Ismael Kamagate. Lastly, given GM Bobby Webster’s presser, we might as well double down with moreeeeeee wings, looking into Dominick Barlow, Jake Laravia, and Justin Lewis’ Raptors fit.

Is there a player at the 33rd pick?

The Raptors have the 33rd pick, and there’s very little excitement surrounding this pick. It’s definitely not the same as picking somewhere in the lottery, but it doesn’t mean the front office can’t find someone of value at this point. Despite the Raptors’ reputation for mining talent, they haven’t had luck in the second round since Norman Powell. However, last season was the only time they were in a position to pick someone before the draft hits the bottom of the barrel. There’s optimism that Dalano Banton (46th ‘21) might be better than where he got selected, and the jury is still out on David Johnson (47th ‘21). Meanwhile, Masai’s front office had gone 3-for-5 when they picked in the 20s, with Bruno Caboclo (20th ‘14) and Malachi Flynn (29th ‘20) not panning out as expected.

Going back to the 33rd pick overall, the prospects at this range are still talented, but a few hiccups on their profile separate them from being a solid first-rounder. However, landing in the right environment is a game-changer for both the prospect and the team. Just look at some of the names picked 33rd or later over the last five years (not including undrafted gems):

• 2017 - 51st Monte Morris DEN
• 2017 - 45th Dillon Brooks MEM
• 2017 - 43rd Isaiah Hartenstein HOU
• 2017 - 42nd Thomas Bryant LAL
• 2018 - 33rd Jalen Brunson DAL
• 2018 - 34th Devonte Graham CHA
• 2018 - 37th Gary Trent Jr POR
• 2018 - 41st Jarred Vanderbilt DEN
• 2019 - 48th Terance Mann LAC
• 2019 - 46th Talen Horton-Tucker LAL
• 2019 - 38th Daniel Gafford CHI
• 2020 - 52nd Kenyon Martin Jr HOU
• 2020 - 35th Xavier Tillman MEM
• 2021 - 35th Herbert Jones NOP
• 2021 - 38th Ayo Dosunmu CHI

While seeing the names above makes one feel optimistic that there’s an opportunity to strike gold in the second round, only a handful of the second-round picks would pan out every year, so the Raptors’ front office has to get the selection right.

What should the Raptors do in the draft?

The Raptors have ten players under contract — Svi Mykhailiuk opted in, and I’m confident they will opt-in Dalano Banton’s contract for next season. The fates of Thaddeus Young, Chris Boucher, Yuta Watanabe, Isaac Bonga, Armoni Brooks, Justin Champagnie, and David Johnson are all up in the air. I would be surprised if the Raptors retain most of them, so if the front office likes more than one prospect in the second round, I believe this draft may be the easiest to acquire another second-round pick. But before that, what should the Raptors do in the draft?

1. Trade into the lottery: Does it make sense for the Raptors to trade a core piece plus at least their pick to get into the lottery?
2. Acquire a late first-round pick: The typical cost of the picks from 18th onwards is a future lottery-protected pick + sweetener.
3. Keep the 33rd pick, call it a day: pick whoever they like, and see who gets undrafted.
4. Acquire another second-round pick: The cost of a second-round pick from the mid-30s to early-40s is a future second-round pick plus cash considerations. The mid-40s onwards can be bought straight up.
5. Flip the 33rd pick for multiple picks: a 33rd pick may be valuable enough to yield a couple of second-round picks. For example, OKC’s got a war chest of picks since last season, and they traded their 34th, and 36th picks to move up to 32nd and select Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.
6. Sell the pick: Perhaps, this Raptors front office is not sold on the prospects and would prefer to punt their pick for next season.

Some teams that might be willing to part at least one of their picks:

• Orlando Magic 32, 35
• San Antonio Spurs 38
• Sacramento Kings 37, 49
• New Orleans Pelicans 41, 52
• Minnesota Timberwolves 40, 48, 50
• Memphis Grizzlies 47
• Golden State Warriors 28, 51, 55

OG Anunoby Rumours

Is OG on the trading block? I doubt it, but I bet the Raptors are listening to the offers. However, it would take a trade that can significantly improve the Raptors’ talent for a trade to get done. It just doesn’t make any sense for the Raptors to keep Pascal Siakam AND Fred VanVleet and take a step back in terms of immediate talent around them by trading OG for a lottery pick that won’t be of help during the Champwich’s “compete window.”

We live in a digital age where national elections are won via social media propaganda, so it’s not surprising seeing propaganda popping up to shake the Raptors’ “tree.” Look at the people reporting them; you’ll see patterns and connections.

Mock Drafts

Based on the mock drafts, we have a consensus top 25 prospects for this coming draft, while there’s a second peloton group of 20-25 draft hopefuls that has a case to go anywhere between the 26th-35th spot. The middle of the pack starts with Jake Laravia and tails off around the range of Dominick Barlow, Michael Foster Jr, Jabari Walker, and Hugo Besson. Out of this group, the Raptors presumably worked out at least 13 of them (* - presumably worked out for the Raptors).

• Marjon Beauchamp
• Jake LaRavia*
• Kennedy Chandler
• Walker Kessler
• Christian Braun
• Wendell Moore Jr
• Bryce McGowens
• Kendall Brown
• Christian Koloko
• Ismael Kamagate*
• Trevor Keels*
• Max Christie
• Patrick Baldwin Jr
• Caleb Houstan*
• Ryan Rollins
• Andrew Nembhard*
• Gabriele Procida
• Peyton Watson*
• Josh Minott*
• Jaylin Williams*
• Justin Lewis*
• David Roddy*
• Jean Montero
• JD Davison
• Dominick Barlow*
• Michael Foster Jr
• Jabari Walker*
• Hugo Besson*

Mock Drafts’ Raptors Pick

Jake LaRavia’s the highest pick mocked to the Raptors, and he’s probably gone by the time the Raptors pick. The Box and One (Dominick Barlow) smartly updated their pick after Bobby Webster’s presser, while Christian Koloko garnered the consensus and mocked to the Raptors by ESPN, Hoop Social, and NBA Draft Room. Out of these picks, only Laravia, Kamagate, Lewis, and Barlow have known workouts with the Raptors.

Workout List

Earlier in the draft process, Raptors Assistant GM Dan Tolzman said that they are looking at potentially having a tight list of 5-10 prospects at their range, plus potentially at least two that might fall to their range come draft night.

We tried our best to gather as the known and rumoured Raptors workouts, but the front office’s knack for secrecy is unparalleled. Per GM Bobby Webster, they worked out 72 prospects, and we could barely find around half of them.

Based on this list, more than half project to go late second or undrafted. However, as Webster said, they worked out around 72, so it’s possible that the Raptors worked out more prospects in the 20s.

My Top 10 @ 33rd Pick

Ignoring the consensus top 25 prospects, I have thought long and hard about who are my top 10 prospects at the 33rd spot. Now, if Jaden Hardy, Dalen Terry, or (maybe) Nikola Jovic slides, I would pick those guys in an instant.

1. Justin Lewis
2. Bryce McGowens
3. Dominick Barlow
4. David Roddy
5. Jake Laravia
6. Jaylin Williams
7. Caleb Houstan
8. Kendall Brown
9. Josh Minott
10. Ismael Kamagate

Cuts: Kennedy Chandler, Walker Kessler, Christian Braun, Christian Koloko, Trevor Keels, Max Christie, Patrick Baldwin Jr, Ryan Rollins, Gabriel Procida, and Peyton Watson

Undrafted Gems

If I were the Raptors, I would be interested in securing a late second-round pick or convince them to bet on themselves with the Raptors for a training camp invite, if not a two-way contract and look at the following names:

• John Butler
• Julian Champagnie
• Alondes Williams
• Trevion Williams
• Jared Rhoden

Final Thoughts

It will be hard to predict who the Raptors will pick at the 33rd spot, but I won’t be surprised if it’s one of Justin Lewis, Bryce McGowens, or Dominick Barlow. Given the Raptors’ lack of depth, the Raptors should look into a second pick. Whether late in the first-round or another in the second round, there’s a few prospects in this range that can boost the Raptors’ bench depth. The Raptors need a “big,” but there’s no immediate help that can be expected from the crop of bigs from this draft. If anything, some solid-ish “big” prospects will go undrafted, and they can put them on the Raptors 905 system for a couple of years.