FanPost

Why Did TOR Lose to SAS?

As a regular analyst of SAS games, I had previously hypothesized that four SAS wins against good teams – HOU, LAC, MIL and BOS were from the opponent’s point of view trap games in which they fell into the trap of underestimating SAS, anticipating an easy win, and did not adequately prepare to provide the effort and performance required to win an NBA game. (See prior piece on SAS versus MIL and BOS.) While this obviously did not apply straightforwardly to the TOR loss to SAS, I wanted to explore what did and might have happened. In part, I am sharing this with the Raptor community in order to gain feedback from persons more knowledgeable about the situation in Toronto.

In some of the SAS prior games, the trap game effect was compounded by opponents looking ahead to an important following game against a strong team – e.g. BOS to the next night’s game with PHI. Does SAS’s road win against TOR fit this trap-game hypothesis? In addition, secondarily does it fit the important-opponent-players-missing situation that was true in the SAS wins over HOU and LAC?

To address the second question first, were important players missing? As you kniow, Marc Gasol and Fred VanVleet were out. Siakam and Powell played in their first game, back after being out for 11 games.

While outstanding in the first quarter, Siakam appeared to tire going 0 for 5 with 1 point in the second half. Powell, however, did not show such fatigue as he went 5 for 9 with 13 points in the second half (2-5 and 1-3 from three in 4th quarter). However, Powell had a plus-minus of -15 in the fourth and Siakam -10, in 9:37 and 9:13 minutes respectively.

TOR started strong and was ahead by 18 in third. This, might fit a delayed trap-game-effect hypothesis. TOR players might have viewed SAS as a weak team and probably an easy win with Powell and Siakam back and performing well early in the game. However, TOR players initially avoided the trap of not being "up and focused" for the game until their belief was confirmed by the returning players early good play and being 18 points ahead. They then became, to quote Lowry, "lackadaisical" (via ESPN).

So, does the TOR loss to SAS fit the trap game hypothesis? Before deciding, an alternative hypothesis exists that must be considered – SAS’s use of a zone in the fourth quarter (to me, it appeared to be a form of matchup zone). Despite TOR having in response to prior difficulties recently devoted practice time to playing against a zone, TOR’s offense was disrupted by SAS going to a zone defense in the fourth quarter. Judge for yourself in the videos listed below. You can judge how many of TOR’s shots were one’s they were happy to take. Also, watch for the level of effort, attention to detail, and serious purposefulness evident in TOR players.

Individual videos TOR offense during first 8:27 of 4th quarter
(Y) means zone involved

MISS McCaw 24' 3PT Jump Shot (N)

Hollis-Jefferson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T10) (Y)

McCaw 5' Driving Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Lowry 12 AST) (Y)

Thomas 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Lowry 13 AST) (Y)

McCaw Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T11) (Y)

MISS Powell 26' 3PT Jump Shot (Y)

MISS Thomas 27' 3PT Jump Shot (Y)

MISS Siakam 18' Step Back Jump Shot (N)

MISS Lowry 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (Y)

MISS Lowry 20' Floating Jump Shot (Y)

MISS Powell 1' Running Layup (N)

MISS Lowry 3PT Jump Shot (N)

MISS Powell 27' 3PT Jump Shot (Y)

Powell Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T12) (N)

Powell 1' Driving Reverse Layup (17 PTS) (Lowry 14 AST) (Y)

Ibaka 1' Dunk (18 PTS) (Siakam 3 AST) (Y)

MISS Ibaka 27' 3PT Jump Shot (Y)

MISS Ibaka 19' Jump Shot (Y)

Source: NBA.com

While the SAS zone was involved in almost all these plays as the (Y)’s indicate, several times its effect was to force a wide-open 3-point shot. Zones tend to pack the middle and force 3-point shots. Teams including TOR generally like to take 3-point shots. Still, 3-point shots are harder shots to make. This is particularly true of shots 26 feet or longer, and the SAS zone resulted in 5 of these (As you know, the NBA 3-point line is 23 feet 9 inches but is shorter in corners). TOR missed 7 threes during this stretch and made 1. While recorded as a 24-footer, it was from the corner where the line is 22 feet, 3 feet from out-of-bounds line. You can judge the effectiveness of the SAS zone and how many of TOR’s shots were one’s they were happy to take.

On the other end of the court, SAS took advantage of what Lowry as lackadaisicalness and lower confidence (via ESPN). DeRozan and White drives and SAS good shooting led to SAS scoring almost every time down the floor for 29 points on 73.3/40/100 shooting. Derrick White scored 7 points, DeRozan 6 (4 from FTs), and Gay and Mills 5 each. (The complete relevant play by play including SAS offense against TOR defense with links to videos is in the Annex.)

Conclusion

While the SAS road win over TOR fits a delayed-trap-game variant hypothesis, other factors played significant roles including it being Siakam’s first game after 11 games out, VanVleet and Gasol being out, and TOR ineffectiveness against a zone – something they had already shown earlier in the season.

The fourth quarter also had a little of the flavor of win by the three and die by the three, but many of TOR’s threes were from two or three feet beyond the line, possibly an effect of the SAS zone defense. Thus, while it is reasonable to suspect the aspect of being a trap game played a role, albeit a delayed variant, this was significantly augmented by the other factors mentioned to lead to a close TOR loss.

ANNEX

Play by Play

11:47

MISS McCaw 24' 3PT Jump Shot

Mills REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)

11:44

Belinelli 2' Cutting Layup Shot (2 PTS) (Gay 2 AST)

11:27

71 - 82

11:27

Hollis-Jefferson Violation:Defensive Goaltending (B.Forte)

Belinelli STEAL (1 STL)

11:10

Hollis-Jefferson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T10)

Lyles 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (4 PTS) (Gay 3 AST)

11:05

73 - 82

10:46

73 - 84

McCaw 5' Driving Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Lowry 12 AST)

MISS Lyles 4' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot

10:34

10:34

Hollis-Jefferson REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)

10:14

73 - 87

Thomas 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Lowry 13 AST)

Mills Offensive Charge Foul (P3.T1) (J.Sterling)

9:58

Mills Offensive Foul Turnover (P1.T10)

9:58

9:49

McCaw Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T11)

9:37

SUB: Powell FOR Davis

Gay 2' Driving Dunk (12 PTS) (White 3 AST)

9:32

75 - 87

9:22

MISS Powell 26' 3PT Jump Shot

Mills REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)

9:19

White 10' Driving Floating Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Belinelli 1 AST)

9:13

77 - 87

9:13

Powell S.FOUL (P2.T1) (G.Petraitis)

9:13

SUB: Siakam FOR Hollis-Jefferson

White Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)

9:13

78 - 87

8:53

MISS Thomas 27' 3PT Jump Shot

Spurs Rebound

8:51

Gay 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Belinelli 2 AST)

8:43

81 - 87

8:41

RAPTORS Timeout: Regular (Full 4 Short 0)

8:41

SUB: Ibaka FOR Thomas

SUB: DeRozan FOR Gay

8:41

SUB: Aldridge FOR Lyles

8:41

8:24

MISS Siakam 18' Step Back Jump Shot

White REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)

8:21

White 7' Driving Floating Jump Shot (9 PTS)

8:13

83 - 87

7:59

MISS Lowry 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot

Belinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)

7:56

Mills 26' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Belinelli 3 AST)

7:44

86 - 87

7:15

MISS Lowry 20' Floating Jump Shot

Belinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)

7:13

MISS Mills 3PT Jump Shot

7:00

6:57

Lowry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)

White BLOCK (3 BLK)

6:55

MISS Powell 1' Running Layup

6:54

RAPTORS Rebound

6:52

MISS Lowry 3PT Jump Shot

Belinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)

6:49

Aldridge 11' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (White 4 AST)

6:34

88 - 87

6:04

MISS Powell 27' 3PT Jump Shot

DeRozan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)

5:59

5:53

Siakam P.FOUL (P2.T2) (G.Petraitis)

5:53

SUB: Anunoby FOR McCaw

Aldridge Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T11)

5:38

Powell STEAL (1 STL)

Mills STEAL (1 STL)

5:34

Powell Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T12)

5:31

Siakam S.FOUL (P3.T3) (J.Sterling)

DeRozan Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)

5:31

89 - 87

DeRozan Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)

5:31

90 - 87

5:16

90 - 89

Powell 1' Driving Reverse Layup (17 PTS) (Lowry 14 AST)

5:05

Siakam S.FOUL (P4.T4) (G.Petraitis)

DeRozan Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)

5:05

91 - 89

DeRozan Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)

5:05

92 - 89

4:44

92 - 91

Ibaka 1' Dunk (18 PTS) (Siakam 3 AST)

DeRozan 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (23 PTS)

4:34

94 - 91

4:25

MISS Ibaka 27' 3PT Jump Shot

DeRozan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)

4:21

White 1' Driving Layup (11 PTS)

4:09

96 - 91

3:54

MISS Ibaka 19' Jump Shot

Belinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)

3:51

MISS Mills 24' 3PT Jump Shot

3:40

Mills REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)

3:38

Mills 1' Driving Layup (9 PTS)

3:35

98 - 91

Source: NBA.com