What are the Vegas odds on Toronto hitting reset on the reset?

Bovada Sportsbook recently published odds addressing the undecided futures of Dwane Casey, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, and Serge Ibaka. What do they mean and should you really bet on them?

By now we understand that people will bet on anything! Hell even wrestling, which is fake and scripted. It would be like watching Lord of the Rings today, and betting on whether Frodo destroys the ring or not... but alas, you do as you choose with your money.

What’s not known is what direction Masai Ujiri will take the Toronto Raptors, following yet another playoff face plant. That brings me to the first (and likeliest) domino to fall, Dwane Casey.

Dwane Casey

Odds of him staying: -200 (bet $100 to win $50)

Odds of him going: +150 (bet $100 to win $150)

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

No, this picture is not my way of suggesting Drake take over for DC – but I do feel like a new voice is needed to, at the very least try and squeeze every last drop out of this core.

The odds accurately reflect the toss-up that is the Casey conundrum. On one hand, you have a coach who's done nothing but move the regular season needle year after year, culminating in an Eastern Conference final berth. He’s been instrumental in the organization’s transformation — both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan having spoken highly of him in their respective exit interviews.

The glaring problem with Casey has been his inability to get this team to peak come playoff time. In seven seasons, he has a post-season record of 20-31. Regular season success is great, but you are judged ultimately on playoff success and it just hasn’t been there for Toronto under Casey’s watchful eye, specifically the last two seasons.

If Ujiri was afforded the luxury of making this call after LeBron made his decision, perhaps things would be different.

Verdict: A new voice is needed (Stackhouse?)

**UPDATE – 05/11/2018 – The Toronto Raptors announced the firing of head coach Dwane Casey. Did anybody bet?

Kyle Lowry

Odds of him staying: -500 (bet $100 to win $20)

Odds of him going: +300 (bet $100 to win $300)

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The narrative of Kyle Lowry trailing off come playoff time died this post-season. He was magnificent. Lowry posted his highest ever offensive rating (123). He looked rested and energized, a byproduct of the reduced workload in the regular season. Unfortunately he and many of his teammates, in the midst of embracing a new offensive philosophy, forgot they had to play defense too.

In saying that, I would be shocked if Lowry had a different jersey on next season. It’s been discussed at great lengths but the time to move on from this core isn’t this offseason, as much as some may wish it were. Instead, it seems more likely that Lowry remains in Toronto for at least one more season. Depending on how they do next year the summer of 2019 could get really interesting.

Verdict: Remains in Toronto

DeMar DeRozan

Odds of him staying: -350 (bet $100 to win ~$28)

Odds of him going: +225 (bet $100 to win $225)

Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

The thing that perpetually infuriates me about DeRozan’s game — and I love him, so please understand that — is his defensive ineptitude. If you hope to be a team’s leader, their king so to speak, you have to play both ends of the floor. Consistently.

DeRozan, for all his offensive wizardry, is a liability on defense more than should be permitted from somebody who tweets “Don’t Worry, I got us”. The lack of progress in that part of his game, along with inconsistencies from three is what’s keeping him from elite status.

Of the three in question, DeRozan might be the most likely to move. Despite his contract and perceived flaws, he has more value than either Lowry or Ibaka. Having said that, I’m hesitant to believe they will, in fact, part ways with him this summer. I do have a dreams of a DeMar-Giannis Antetokounmpo swap though, especially since the Raptors brought his little brother in for a tryout.

DeRozan’s made a habit of coming back better each year. In the past, it was unclear what wrinkle(s) he would add but now it’s no longer up for debate: more threes, and a substantial improvement on defense.

Verdict: Remains in Toronto

Serge Ibaka

Odds of him staying: -700 (bet $100 to win ~$14)

Odds of him going: +400 (bet $100 to win $400)

Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Well if you’re brave you could put some coin on Ibaka having a new home next season, but I caution you to do so because there’s almost zero chance of that happening after seeing him disappear when Toronto needed him most.

Serge Ibaka was thought to be the third piece to Toronto’s big three but as the year went on, almost every other player took turns occupying that role. Then, when the playoffs rolled around it was Jonas Valanciunas who answered the bell. Even OG Anunoby, a rookie with no playoff experience under his belt, looked far superior to Ibaka.

In total, Ibaka managed just 87 postseason points, 23 coming in Game 1 of the Washington series — his lowest playoff total since his rookie season.

It would make sense that Serge be the odd man out given the clear limitations exposed by a modern day NBA offense, but with two years remaining on his contract, and over $40 million owed to him it’s hard to picture Ujiri finding a willing suitor. Parting with another pick would be necessary and I doubt Masai wants to do that again, so soon after the Carroll trade.

Verdict: Remains in Toronto