Updating the Raptors’ Win Total Projections with 10 Games Left

This is a quick update to the attempt at a Raptors’ season win total projection outlined here. The most recent update is here. This is the last one for this season - let’s take a look at what the crucial final ten games look like, and how the team is playing heading into them.

Ten games ago, the projection had the Raptors pegged for a 5.8-4.2 record in this recent stretch. In reality, the team went 6-4, in spite of Kyle Lowry missing all of those games. Here are the full performances for each game (see linked original article above for explanations if needed).

Those performances bring the season averages to the following.

Offensive performance: +3.8
Defensive performance: +0.9
Overall performance: +4.7
Adjusted ORTG: 109.9
Adjusted DRTG: 105.2
Projected Pythagorean record: 53-29
Projected current record based on model: 42-30 (actual record 43-29)
Projected final record based on model: 48-34

With those average performances in mind, here is a look ahead to the next ten games.

That projects to a 6.1-3.9 record over the next ten games.

Is that projection optimistic? Pessimistic? What about the season projections above?

For those curious, we can also look at just the sample since the All-Star break, to gauge how the team has performed without Lowry. The team’s average performance in those fifteen games is +4.6, basically in line with their +4.7 mark for the season. The team is doing very well to weather the storm — and we’ll see how much upside there could be once Lowry is back.

As ever, any questions or critiques are more than welcome.

All team ratings per NBA.com. Schedule information taken from basketball-reference.com.