Updating the Raptors’ Win Total Projections with 30 Games Left

This is a quick update to the attempt at a Raptors’ season win total projection outlined here. The most recent update is here. We’ll have a similar update every ten games from here to the end of the season.

Ten games ago (technically 11 — apologies for the late arrival of this one, we’ll cover the Clippers game next time), the projection had the Raptors pegged for a 6.5-3.5 record in this recent stretch. In reality, the team went 3-7, as injuries and generally bad play derailed this stretch. Not good. Here are the full performances for each game (see linked original article above for explanations if needed).

Those performances bring the season averages to the following.

Offensive performance: +5.2
Defensive performance: -0.1
Overall performance: +5.1
Adjusted ORTG: 111.1
Adjusted DRTG: 106.0
Projected Pythagorean record: 54-28
Projected current record based on model: 31-21 (actual record 31-21)
Projected final record based on model: 49-33

With those average performances in mind, here is a look ahead to the next ten games.

That projects to a 5.9-4.1 record over the next ten games.

Is that projection optimistic? Pessimistic? What about the season projections above?

As ever, any questions or critiques are more than welcome.

All team ratings per NBA.com. Schedule information taken from basketball-reference.com.