This is a quick update to the attempt at a Raptors’ season win total projection outlined here. The most recent update is here. We’ll have a similar update every ten games from here to the end of the season.
Ten games ago, the projection had the Raptors pegged for a 6.6-3.4 record in this recent stretch. In reality, the team went 6-4. Not bad. Here are the full performances for each game (see linked original article above for explanations if needed).
Those performances bring the season averages to the following.
Offensive performance: +7.6
Defensive performance: +0.2
Overall performance: +7.8
Adjusted ORTG: 113.2
Adjusted DRTG: 105.4
Projected Pythagorean record: 60-22
Projected current record based on model: 27-15 (actual record 28-14)
Projected final record based on model: 53-29
With those average performances in mind, here is a look ahead to the next ten games.
That projects to a 6.5-3.5 record over the next ten games.
Is that projection optimistic? Pessimistic? What about the season projections above?
As ever, any questions or critiques are more than welcome.