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Updating the Raptors Win Total Projections for 2016-17: 50 Games Left

How great are the Raptors really playing? And if they keep it up, how many wins are they likely to end up with?

NBA: Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

This is a quick update to the attempt at a season win total projection outlined here. We’ll have a similar update every ten games from here to the end of the season.

Ten games ago, the projection had the Raptors pegged for a 6.6-3.4 record in this recent stretch. In reality, the team went 7-3. Not bad. Here are the full performances for each game (see linked original article above for explanations if needed).

Those performances bring the season averages to the following.

Offensive performance: +8.4
Defensive performance: +0.9
Overall performance: +9.3
Adjusted ORTG: 113.6
Adjusted DRTG: 104.2
Projected Pythagorean record: 63-19
Projected current record based on model: 21-11 (actual record 22-10)
Projected final record based on model: 54-28

With those average performances in mind, here is a look ahead to the next ten games.

That projects once again to a 6.6-3.4 record over the next ten games.

Is that projection optimistic? Pessimistic? What about the season projection above? Does the possibility of Patterson missing time open up the Raptors to a few more losses?

As ever, any questions or critiques are more than welcome.

All team ratings per Schedule information taken from