As we approach the end of the season and the start of the playoffs, it is time to start focusing on exactly which lineups work best together for the Toronto Raptors. Let's take a look at the offensive, defensive and net ratings of the Raptors' top lineups. First, a legend - we're going to be using a lot of acronyms from here on out:
Kyle Lowry - KL
Amir Johnson - AJ
DeMar DeRozan - DD
Terrence Ross - TR
Jonas Valanciunas - JV
James Johnson - JJ
Lou Williams - LW
Patrick Patterson - PP
Greivis Vasquez - GV
Tyler Hansbrough - TH
Chuck Hayes - CH
Landry Fields - LF
Players | Minutes Played | Offensive Rating - ORTG | Defensive Rating - DRTG | Net Rating
DD - AJ - KL - TR - JV | 369 | 106.0 | 104.4 | +1.6
TH - JJ - PP - GV - LW | 195 | 106.9 | 96.2 | +10.7
DD - AJ - KL - JV - GV | 146 | 96.0 | 105.1 | -9.2
TH - PP - TR - GV - LW | 126 | 120.0 | 106.2 | +13.8
AJ - JJ - KL - TR - JV | 118 | 109.7 | 105.7 | +4.1
LF - AJ - KL - TR - JV | 116 | 99.5 | 108.0 | -8.5
DD - AJ - JJ - KL - JV | 85 | 96.5 | 85.6 | +10.9
DD - KL - PP - JV - LW | 81 | 94.5 | 100.4 | -5.9
AJ - KL - TR - JV - GV | 81 | 117.7 | 120.4 | -2.8
DD - AJ - KL - PP - LW | 72 | 114.1 | 111.1 | +3.0
DD - AJ - KL - PP - TR | 65 | 125.7 | 109.9 | +15.8
DD - KL - PP - TR - JV | 59 | 103.4 | 129.5 | -26.1
CH - JJ - PP - GV - LW | 45 | 127.7 | 125.3 | +2.4
JJ - PP - JV - GV - LW | 45 | 90.4 | 118.4 | -28.0
KL - PP - TR - JV - LW | 44 | 107.7 | 110.0 | -2.4
TH - KL - PP - GV - LW | 43 | 101.7 | 109.4 | -7.7
PP - TR - JV - GV - LW | 41 | 105.5 | 117.7 | -12.3
DD - AJ - JJ - JV - GV | 39 | 97.8 | 100.8 | -3.0
DD - AJ - KL - JV - LW | 39 | 106.2 | 86.1 | +20.1
DD - TH - KL - PP - TR | 38 | 119.8 | 90.0 | +29.8
AJ - KL - PP - TR - LW | 37 | 98.2 | 79.6 | +18.7
JJ - KL - PP - JV - LW | 37 | 137.3 | 114.3 | +23.0
AJ - PP - TR - GV - LW | 36 | 134.4 | 105.4 | +29.0
DD - JJ - KL - PP - JV | 34 | 84.8 | 80.3 | +4.5
TH - JJ - KL - PP - LW | 31 | 119.9 | 83.5 | +36.3
KL - PP - TR - JV - GV | 30 | 91.2 | 98.5 | -7.3
That's a lot of lineups with a minimum of 30 minutes played together. It's a decent sample size, though not a great one. If you narrow the view to lineups that have a very solid sample size (say, 100 minutes) you only have a half dozen lineups to choose from.
The most effective units either overall or on defense are in bold. In this case, I'll consider "overall" for general use, and "defensive" for crunch time defending a lead. You'll note that in general our offense is pretty good - every one of the highlighted defensive lineups posts a positive net rating, and most have a dominant net rating. I've long held that defense is the key to this team's success, and this seems to hold here.
From here, we can compile a rotation of sorts, trying to make each substitution have one of the highlighted lineups on the court.
For example, the best mostly bench units are:
KL-LW-JJ-PP-TH (+36)
GV-LW-TR-PP-AJ (+29)
GV-LW-TR-PP-TH (+13)
GV-LW-JJ-PP-TH (+10).
The best units with most of the starters are:
KL-LW-DD-AJ-JV (+20)
KL-DD-JJ-AJ-JV (+11)
KL-DD-JJ-PP-JV (+5).
And then there are a few very highly rated transitional lineups:
KL-DD-TR-PP-TH (+30)
KL-LW-JJ-PP-JV (+23)
KL-LW-TR-PP-AJ (+19)
From these lineups, we can build a rotation where (based on a plan, but also with contingencies for foul trouble) we always have one of these very effective lineups on the court.
Some will counter that matchups should drive a lot of the decisions. And in some cases, they should. But you can play the matchup game while sticking to what has worked for you all season.
I'll explore exactly how a rotation would work based on these lineups next week, but I think there are conclusions to be drawn from the above list.
An example: the single best rated lineup (with 30+ minutes) where both point guards are used has a net rating of -2.8. Maybe this suggests the team should stop using Vasquez as a shooting guard. And you'll have a hard time finding a lineup where he is used with very many starters and has a positive net rating - Vasquez is a bench player through and through. Any time he gets matched up against opposing starters, the Raptors get outscored. Yet, he is very effective playing with bench units.
You'll also notice that the current starting lineup only posts a +2 rating. Interesting.
Do you spot any other patterns? Have any suggestions for a rotation?
(All stats from NBA.com.)
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