Please note: All stats from NBA.com.
There have been plenty of complaints for a long time that the Raptors' offense is too perimeter oriented, and especially too isolation oriented. Is that true? And is it really hurting them?
First, let's take a look at the shot breakdown for the Raptors on the year.
Shot Type | Percentage of Shots Taken | Effective FG%
Shots inside 10 feet | 44% | 57%
Catch-and-shoot jumpers | 24% | 56%
Pull-up jumpers | 32% | 40%
You might notice an outlier there in terms of efficiency. And you may also notice that the Raptors take about a third of their shots in that manner. So, that's jump shots off the dribble. But, taking a shot off the dribble is not always a bad thing - dribbling away from a defender running out on you and taking an open jumper is a great counter to a team chasing you off the three point line. What about breaking it down by how many dribbles you take?
Number of Dribbles | Percentage of Shots Taken | Effective FG%
0 | 43% | 59%
1 | 14% | 49%
2 | 12% | 44%
3-6 | 19% | 45%
7+ | 12% | 44%
Again, catch and shoot here looks good (this includes jumpers and shots near the rim). Same goes for a one dribble escape or drive - 49 percent eFG% is pretty good. Those account for 57 percent of the Raptors' shots. The other 43 percent break down into isolations of varying degrees - making a quick move against a defender, lining a defender up, or basically dribbling out the clock. Note that the Raptors are actually pretty good relative to other teams in isolation, but the bar for isolation success is pretty low - no one is good at it. So taking almost half your shots off the dribble, including a full third of them in blatant isolation, is a little problematic.
Even worse, looking at the Raptors' three point attempts, one in three of them are off the dribble. One in three! And off the dribble, the team as a whole shoots 29 percent on pull-up 3's, versus 39 percent on catch-and-shoot 3's.
Now, perhaps isolation and dribble-heavy situations wouldn't be such an issue if players were getting open, say with a crossover or running off a pick. Let's look at how close defenders are on jump shots outside of 10 feet from the basket.
Defender Distance | Percentage of Shots Taken | Effective FG%
0-4 feet (covered) | 39% | 42%
4+ feet (open) | 61% | 49%
Yep. Lots of contested jumpers, lots of misses. Unsurprising.
Now, just for kicks, the team's top shot types by field goal attempt totals.
Shot Type | FGA | eFG%
Jump Shot | 2709 | 45%
Layup/Dunk | 981 | 66%
Hook Shot | 277 | 58%
Obviously you want to get a layup or dunk whenever you can. But the other two categories seem to be telling a tale, and are representative of perimeter play versus post play. Make sure you pay close attention to both the eFG% column and the total shots column.
So given the above, any thoughts on the current offensive system?