Franchise wonders just what direction Captain Colangelo is guiding this spaceship in...

In the early hours this morning it was announced that the Toronto Raptors had signed Andrea Bargnani to an extension starting in 2010-2011 for five years at about $10 Million per year.

This, coupled with what should be the official signing of Hedo later today, means that Toronto now has what it views as two major pieces of its puzzle locked-up for the next half a decade alongside Jose Calderon. Should Bosh re-sign next summer, that would mean approximately $50 Million tied up in four players, a number that would remain consistent for at least the next four seasons before Jose Calderon’s salary came off the books.

That’s a lot of loot.

Our colleagues at Raptors Republic noted this morning that "the Spurs have $48 Million tied in 4 players next year, the Lakers have $52 Million tied in 3, the Magic $50 Million in 3 and the Cavaliers $55 million in 4." This means that Toronto will still have room financially to add other pieces to their core, however as the Arsenalist points out, it’s easy to argue that the aforementioned teams are getting a lot more bang for their buck.

And this is really now what it comes down to.

At the height of potential, should Andrea continue to improve at both ends, then suddenly $10 Million a year for a Dirk-clone seems like a steal.

However should he continue to be an off-and-on contributor who struggles defensively, then suddenly this contract could look a lot worse than that of Marcus Banks, the player apparently that BC is trying to include in the sign-and-trade deal with Dallas regarding Shawn Marion.

Essentially, Bryan Colangelo and his crew must feel that a core group of Bosh, Bargs, Jose and Hedo is good enough to remain very competitive in the East, and a few savvy additions will put them in contention with the Clevelands, Bostons, and Orlandos at the top of the ladder.

I’ve got my doubts.

First of all, I don’t think Toronto’s foursome is anywhere near as talented as those of the aforementioned clubs. I’m not even sure Toronto’s group is on par with a club like Philly, who if they can re-sign Andre Miller and re-acclimatize Elton Brand, could still be a very dangerous bunch.

The other piece of this is the depth issue.

$50 Million spent on four players is a lot of money and considering the salary cap just came in at $57.7 Million and the luxury tax at $69.92 Million (a drop from $58.68M and $71.15M respectively), that doesn’t leave a lot of room for change should this starting four not work out – especially when players like Marcus Banks and Reggie Evans are eating into about $8 Million of that room and are still on the books for a few more years.

Essentially the Legomaster is putting most of his eggs into one basket yet again.

Last year we saw the results of this and unless BC can find a taker for Banks and/or Hump, again this year there won’t be much of an upgrade to the bench group. In fact at present, the bench looks to be in worse shape than last year, a notion that is echoed by glancing at Toronto’s summer league roster, which at present accounts for most of the group.

That’s one reason Howland and I are particularly keen to see Toronto’s Vegas entry in action this weekend.

The Raptors have signed off on allowing us media access so we’ll have coverage of the first three games, games that may very well prove to be a good indication of what to expect this season from Roko, Jawai and co. Again, Summer League is hardly an indication of who is going to shine come the regular season, but it definitely will identify who still isn’t ready for the big time. Should the core of Ukic, Jawai, O’Bryant, Douby and DeRozan struggle, things could be ugly this season, especially if Toronto’s expected starters can’t stay healthy.

In fact remember in the original Star Trek series whenever Captain Kirk put an away team together, there were always those "security" guys in red shirts?

Isn’t that Toronto’s bench right now?

You KNEW those Red Shirt guys were going to get blasted as soon as they got down to the planet and if Roko and co. are expected to play major roles for the Raptors this year, it may be a similar situation when they come into a game.

Uh oh Roko, keep a tight grip on that phaser...

Even the original Star Trek group had seven key personnel (Kirk, Spock, McCoy, Scottie, Uhura, Sulu and Chekov) with one or two other minor players thrown into the mix. This team at present has four, which means a lot of "red shirts" trying not to get killed on the court come regular season.

Over the next few days hopefully we’ll see some additions to this lot, be they via the rumoured Shawn Marion sign-and-trade or perhaps even via some sort of other creative maneuvers. There aren’t a lot of free-agent options left in Toronto’s dollar range, especially at the 2 and 3 spots, so it’s going to be interesting to see just what Colangelo can do.

And while I’m not a big fan of cementing this current "core," there is one big positive about BC’s strategy from my point of view – he’s got this season as a test run.

As opposed to last year when Marion came in as the season was wrapping up, the Raptors this year have training camp and a full-season to see just what this roster can do. If it turns up being a disaster, Toronto can attempt to make some major changes next summer when Bosh’s contract comes off the books.

For those of us who aren’t fans of the direction this team is taking, we can take some solace in that I suppose, but for all intents and purposes this is your Toronto Raptors team for the next few years.

And while some may be applauding Bryan Colangelo’s moves, let’s just say I’m not ready to beam this group into the Eastern Conference Finals any time soon.

FRANCHISE

Dude can jump...no doubt about it.

With the 9th pick in the 2009 Draft, the Toronto Raptors choose...

When David Stern came to the podium at the 2009 Draft and announced that the Toronto Raptors were selecting Demar Derozan, it was clear that the Raptors as an organization were going out on a limb. Although not what many would consider the "safe" pick, the Raps felt comfortable selecting not only the best athlete but also the prospect with the best "upside" and raw talent.

I am left wondering why the Raptors decided to go in this direction.

We all know about the immediacy of the Raptors situation, but rather than picking a player that would definitely be able to contribute now, the
team chose a player who only performed at a high level for half a college season, went to great lengths to make sure he had individual workouts and is perhaps the most questionable shooter out of all the players who were available to the Raps. It's concerning.

Nevertheless, the Raptors have assembled a coaching staff that has always been good at player development. With Marc Iavaroni and Jay Triano, the Raptors have coaches that have worked with developing young stars such as Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, and current Raptor Chris Bosh.

DeRozan has shown an ability to defend as well as attack the rim, two qualities that the Raptors have unsuccesfully tried to get out of Joey Graham and Jamario Moon in seasons past. With two front court players that are good shooters, the Raptor's should benefit from having a player whose best avenue of attack is to initiate his offense off the dribble; something only Andrea Bargnani and Shawn Marion have been able to do in the past six months.

So what should be DeRozan's workout regiment for this summer?

The first thing the Raptors coaching staff must do is get DeRozan in to a gym and nail him down at the free throw line. With his athletic ability and his inability to shoot, the Raptors must turn DeRozan into a free throw shooting machine. There's no question that DeRozan will
be challenged around the rim, and in order to make him an effective part of the Raptors' future plans, he simply must increase his shooting percentage from the charity stripe to make it an important weapon in his arsenal. His secondary work assignment should be geared towards his strength and conditioning as he's only had one year in college and the Raptors may require his athletic prowess down the later parts of the season.

But for us fans, the biggest thing we must do is manage expectations.

If DeRozan has difficulties hitting his foul shot, the Raptors will not be able to keep him in during late game situations. Should the Raptors retain Anthony Parker (more on free-agency tomorrow), we may see DeRozan come off the bench. Of course how much playing time DD gets will, for the most part, be up to DeRozan. If the former USC student gets off to a slow start, we should all remember that his only year of college ball also had a similar start.

Maybe most importantly, we have to remember that this kid is still believed to be a "project" who may not reach his full potential even with two seasons under his belt. After all, Tracy McGrady, on a very bad Raptors team, couldn't even find court time under Darrell Walker and Butch Carter.

However, as with every rookie, he gives Raptors fans something to think about over the summer.

He gives us excitement and hope for the future.

And that's the power of the Draft.

Vicious D

Home of the NBA Draft.

It's been a whirlwind 48 hours.

What started off as a last-minute acknowledgment of press access to the draft from the Raptors and the NBA, turned into a full-blown media frenzy by Thursday evening, and an amazing opportunity for myself and for RaptorsHQ all-around.

From having post-draft drinks with the Draftexpress staff, to meeting folks from Slam Magazine and ESPN.com, many of whose work I'd been reading since I was about 15, the entire weekend has certainly been one to remember.

The hope is that overall, this weekend is one to remember for Raptors' fans, with the selection of Demar DeRozan being the start of something extremely special and a moment fans will look back upon in three or four years as a "franchise-changing event."

As I've discussed many a time in the past few days, the DeRozan pick is going to take some time to grow on me. It sounds like the kid is going to work his heart out and is extremely excited to be heading to TO, two huge first steps, however I'm not sold. I worry about the time it will take for him to have an impact, if he has one at all, and still feel like there were other options for Bryan Colangelo that would
have had a more immediate and definite impact.

However I hope I'm wrong.

As many of you saw in the video I shot in the MSG Media Area, DeRozan sees himself as an important part of the Toronto puzzle next year, and if that ends up being the case, it's a huge step forward for the franchise.

It's quite possible that the HQ will be in Vegas to watch DeRozan's first steps via Summer League, so we should be able to gauge just how big of a learning curve there'll be for the youngster from Compton.

However even with the DeRozan selection, something that seemed to make a number of fans happy, there was some general discord about the way the rest of the draft played out for Toronto. Seeing players like Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Patty Mills go so late in the draft had to make you wonder why Bryan Colangelo wasn't looking to snatch any of these players up.

The word in New York was simply that the price for second round picks this year was too high, but when you saw teams like Houston buying up multiple picks, you had to scratch your head a bit. While other teams like the Spurs and Eockets were snatching up second-round steals like DeJuan Blair and Jermaine Taylor, Toronto seemed to simply be waiting things out, looking forward to July 1.

The one positive fall-out in my opinion though was that a number of players with NBA potential weren't drafted including HQ favourites Jerel McNeal, Paul Harris, and Wes Matthews. One of our readers posted some other solid options too including UConn forward Jeff Adrien and guard Dionte Christmas, a player who the Raptors liked the look of in pre-draft workouts. Hopefully some of these names will find themselves on the Dinos' Summer League roster.

Speaking of which, the following is the schedule for Toronto's Vegas entry:

DATE, OPPONENT
TIME (ET)
Friday, July 10 vs. L.A. Lakers
8:00 p.m.

Saturday, July 11 vs. Detroit
4:00 p.m.

Monday, July 13 vs. Portland
8:00 p.m.

Wednesday, July 15 vs. Milwaukee
4:00 p.m.

Thursday, July 16 vs. Phoenix
4:00 p.m.

This year's Raptors entry should be very intriguing as aside from DeRozan, Toronto actually has roster spots to fill so besides the likes of Jawai, Douby and O'Bryant, we could see other individuals from the squad get training camp invites.

I'll be back from New York on Sunday and ready to switch from draft to free-agent mode. The early word is that with the Vince Carter deal, one that I actually like more for the Nets than the Magic, Hedo will be on the open market and the Raptors will be making a solid push.

This frankly scares the hell out of me.

Not because I don't think Hedo could help the team, I definitely think he could be a huge boost at the 3 spot. No, it's more because I worry about overpaying an inconsistent player, especially one who I feel accomplished much of what he did because of the system he played in.

However he and Maurizio go way back, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Toronto make a serious play for his services.

If they can get him for cheap, then fire away.

If not, I'm hoping that the team has a major plan B...

...or DeRozan really is ready to take on the "Air Canada" handle...

FRANCHISE

With all the deals and rumours floating around it looks to be an action packed and exciting night. Keep refreshing this page as we make our way through tonight's festivities.

Eric Smith is also running a live blog and of course we will have updates on our twitter feed (raptorshq).

FRANCHISE: A big shout out from MSG!!!! So first off, the Raptors. From everything I've heard in New York, the team is deciding between Holiday and DeRozan. Some like DeRozan's upside, others who want to get a player with an immediate impact want Holiday. The problem is, Golden State and New York could both throw major wrenches into the Raps plans. If G State pulls off a rumoured deal with Phoenix, then DeRozan might be the Suns choice at 6. And while it sounds like Curry is now going to fall to New York, who knows for sure. If both are gone, I'd say Johnson is the choice. The loonies are filing into MSG right now, so we should be set to go soon for lots of booing!

HOWLAND: We have been told by three sources that the Raps are taking DD provided he is there. Looks like a project, but considering how far off this team is from say....Orlando, the pick could look great a few years from now.

FRANCHISE: We're hearing that Sacramento and Portland are closing in on a deal that
would send Sergio Rodriguez and the #38 pick to Sacramento for #31.

HOWLAND: Do we really need the commissioner to put the Clippers on the clock?

HOWLAND: Hmmmm. Ricky Rubio was going to make less than 100k this season in Europe? No kidding he wants out!

FRANCHISE: I love the Ricky Rubio footage - it looks like he's passing the ball to Howland and I.

HOWLAND: And away we go!!!!!!

FRANCHISE: Draftexpress is reporting that the Warriors don't want to include the 7th pick...so again, this is the real Wild Card pick. WOW - guy in a Bulls jersey right near me standing with a sign that says, "Hey Gar, Go Get Bosh." Gar = GM of Bulls I guess, Gar Foreman.

HOWLAND: If there isn't a trade the Clippers just wasted five minutes that we can't get back....

FRANCHISE: Man, was hoping Stern would say TAYLOR instead.

HOWLAND: Now it gets interesting....

HOWLAND: Who exactly is going to teach Thabeet to be a big man? He also looks like a spaceman in that suit.

FRANCHISE: Man I'd hate to be the Grizz with that pick...just a real project for someone taken that high. Now what though - what's OK City do? Rubio? And really, with all the recent
trades, even if he is the choice, there's no guarantee he'll stay with them long.

HOWLAND: First surprise of the night. Rubio goes where now?

FRANCHISE: Very interesting...so how low does Rubio go? It sounds like Minnesota wants him but if Sacto plucks him, does this mean Minny takes Curry and causes a stampede here at
MSG?

HOWLAND: Well this is a PERFECT scenario for Minny.

FRANCHISE: Wow...so Minny is loving that Rubio is still there, but imagine if Washington wanted Rubio all along? That can't sit well with them...And now what about Minny's second pick? Could they suddenly grab DeRozan?

HOWLAND: Interesting reaction from the MSG crowd to the Rubio pick; some USA chants (dumb), some cheers because it means Curry is still there, and some boos because there was a
fairly large contingent who wanted him as a Knick. Here's the real worry for BC right now. DeRozan makes a lot more sense now that
they've got a real point guard. TENSION.

HOWLAND: Flynn?! Now they have two pure points....how does that work....trade in the making? Knicks fans are loving Curry being within reach.

FRANCHISE: Wow - so that was interesting. MSG going crazy because Curry is getting closer and closer. Watch Golden State screw everything up now. Sigh of relief from the Raps brass I'm sure but again, who knows what G State does.

HOWLAND: This pick has huge influence on what the Raps do. If GS goes off the board someone will fall...like Jordan Hill? Let's hope GS goes with someone like Williams, Johnson....anyone but Hill.

FRANCHISE: Also...have to say that this is the first time I've seen any promise from Minnesota since KG was there and the team acquired Spree and Cassell. PS - Nice, MSG fans heckling Rubio with "USA" chants as he walks to the media area...

HOWLAND: Now that is a kick in the....ya know. Knicks fans must HATE that. Could the Knicks pass on Hill now? The anticipation is killing me!!!

HOWLAND: DAMN IT! Unfortunately no-one fell. Looks like centre-sports is going to be selling Derozan jersey's this year. Being 9 was the worst spot this year. I woldn't be upset with someone else....but all indications are DD. Just wondering if Phoenix wanted Curry in an Amare deal....

HOWLAND: And there it is DD. In some ways not that surprising...albeit a little disappointing. Franchise will be trying to grab an interview ASAP and we will post it when available.

HOWLAND: And there goes Jennings. A bit of a surprise...wonder if he regrets backing out from the Green-Room. In my opinion....Stephon Marbury....moving from Europe to Milwaukee could be a real downer.

HOWLAND: Speaking of downers....what's with the Nets taking HQ favorites? Last year CDR and this year Williams. Great to see him picked however. Bilas is loving him...that's not making this any easier on us.

HOWLAND: Bobcats continue to take guys close to home. Holiday is still available...they have TJ and Jack and Chad Ford is saying Tyler. This could be an interesting pick. Waiting for Franchise to come back from his interview with DD.

HOWLAND: Jennings coming on stage may have been the STRANGEST thing in the history of the NBA Draft....next to the Raps drafting Hoffa. HEAD CASE.

HOWLAND: Video with DD will be available in about 15 mins. Minny takes their third PG. I know they want to get Jefferson the rock but this is crazy....on no wait....to Denver. Love that for Denver.

FRANCHISE: Alright, back. Finished the media session with DeRozan...it was a bit "cricket cricket." As you'll see in the video I took, which we'll post a link to in about 20 minutes, it was basically me asking him questions...and defending the Canadian tax system. I also sat in on the Stephen Curry session so I could ask if he was going to do a "I love college - Davidson extended remix." Cracked him up although not sure most of the media knew what I was talking about. Here's the link if you haven't seen the clip and Curry's skills.

HOWLAND: There are some interesting players available here...Blair, Young, Mullens....any chance BC makes a move here?

HOWLAND: Derozan's twitter page: "Toronto here I come. Air Canadas back."

FRANCHISE: So thoughts on the DeRozan pick, looks like most commentators are fairly happy with it. I'm worried personally. While I didn't love a lot of the other options, there were players like Henderson and Holiday that I preferred. I hope more than anything that I'm wrong but I think that a) this is a major project and b) one that has a good chance of being Gerald Green part II. Seems like a great kid, think he'll work his ass off, but if he gets to be a dominant player, I worry it will be in 3 years when it's too late. That being said, I'm more interested in what Toronto does come July 1 as that, and not this draft, I think will set the tone for next season.

FRANCHISE: And here's your first look at the Derozan video. Don't forget RHQ brought it to you first. Sorry about the quality, recording and asking questions at the same time.

HOWLAND: Start the chant....we want Blair! We want BLAIR!

FRANCHISE: Ok so what's up with Blair?
This is like Granger times 50. I can't understand this. I like Carroll, but were Blair's MRI's that bad? I mean are they metal? Carroll may need a liver transplant and he STILL goes ahead of Blair?

FRANCHISE: Rumour in media room...Curry might have been Golden State's pick just to
spite Walsh and the Knicks...

HOWLAND: One pick left in the first round. Apparently the price is too high for the Raps to get back into the first round but is looking into acquiring a second round pick. We are shutting this down after this pick but if there is more news we will be back.

The HQ team is getting the feeling that Holiday will be in Raptors' red next year...

D Day for the Toronto Raptors.

Yes, draft-day, and also decision day in a process that’s been about as murky as Lake Ontario.

For the first time that I can remember, less than 24 hours away from the draft there seems to be only one thing that’s certain – uncertainty.

Chad Ford’s latest mock draft on ESPN.com has a "confidence" level attached to each of his mocked picks and after Blake Griffin, there aren’t a lot of high percentages let’s just say.

And for good reason.

Memphis, Oklahoma City and Sacramento could go any number of directions and in fact, Ford has James Harden falling all the way to the Knicks in the latest scenario.

For many Raptors’ fans that would indeed be heartbreak hotel as previous to this morning, there didn’t seem any way that Harden would fall so far and to have him go with the pick right in front of Toronto would sting.

So who in the end do I think Toronto will choose?

Again, I think a lot hinges on who’s left on the board when the Raptors roll around. Up until yesterday evening I thought James Johnson was the top choice for Toronto, but word from some of my sources already at the draft in New York is that Flynn is in fact suddenly the forerunner.

However with most mocks now saying that Flynn could go at 4 to Sacramento, I think Jrue Holiday and not Johnson, will be the final choice.

Of course if Holiday gets chosen too prior to the ninth pick, things then get VERY interesting as someone in the ilk of Harden or Evans will have to drop. This would be a dream scenario for me personally as Harden and Evans would be my top two options at 9. In the end though, I have a feeling that Holiday will be the pick, bringing me back to my thought process immediately after his first workout here in Toronto a few weeks ago.

Would I be thrilled with Holiday joining the team? I prefer him to DeRozan or Johnson and would be fine with the selection, but would be happier with Flynn or Henderson. I don’t think Holiday’s season at UCLA did him justice and while I wasn’t a fan before the draft process began, a closer look at Holiday’s metrics recently have warmed me up to him as an option. Considering his ability to play the 1 and 2, Toronto’s needs, and his defensive intangibles, it looks to be a fairly safe pick.

The big question for me though is what happens with Roko if either Flynn or Holiday is the choice in the end.

One of the first errors in judgment made by BC was to under-estimate Jose Calderon’s abilities and had he known that Jose would rise to be a top-level 1, then perhaps Villanueva is either retained or moved for another need. In any event, it avoids the pressure of having to move TJ Ford, and therefore the last thing I want to see is a repeat of history. If Roko suddenly takes a giant step next season and outplays whomever Toronto drafts, it could be a tough road to start to go down again for fans.

It will be interesting to see what direction this team goes in though tonight in any event.

Will BC draft for need, for a player who has the best upside, or take the best player available – ie – one that can impact this team immediately? With the recent moves by Washington, Milwaukee, and now Cleveland (Shaq???) the one thing that’s certain is that the East isn’t getting any easier. Therefore I’m hoping that Toronto looks at drafting a player with an NBA skill-set that can impact this team immediately and Howland is thinking along the same lines. The organization needs to start collecting assets again and the draft is one of the best ways to do that.

Also, Howland believes that the best case scenario for the Raps, no matter how unlikely, would be to somehow turn the number 9 pick into a lower round pick and a future number one. His argument to me last night was that this year’s draft class is just so weak that picking up a first rounder in a future draft would be a coup. In comparison to the upcoming free-agency period, we both believe that the draft is a distant second in terms of the future of this franchise. So unless Toronto gets lucky and as mentioned, Evans or Harden somehow fall, we don’t believe that any of the prospects the Dinos are considering at 9 will have a huge impact this coming season.

Vicious D is essentially on the same page as us and is worried about the whole "Go big or go home" mentality. Here was his take when I spoke with him last night:

"If you're a Raptors fan, you're probably worried about that mindset. Heck, I certainly am. Yes, it's possible to swing for the fences and get a draft pick that turns into the next superstar athlete and the entire NBA knows that Toronto needs one if they hope to compete with the best of the East. However, I'm of the conservative mindset. We've already been warned to death regarding this draft's lack of superstars. In my opinion, that means you look for guys that can contribute now, have a lot of hustle, and can bring intangibles. Which reminds me of a time when the Raptors had a late first round pick and drafted Morris Peterson, a player who arguably in this weak draft class, would be a mid to late lottery pick.

That's why I'm hoping the Raptors go for Gerald Henderson. He may never be a flash player, but the people we've struggled to replace in the past two years never were. Peterson and Garbajosa were simply players who came and put spirit and a calm presence to the Raptors. I believe we'll see many of those same qualities from Henderson if we draft him."

I’d love to see Henderson here of course, but right now it looks like he’s at the bottom five of Toronto’s list.

A few other interesting questions Howland mentioned to me last night regarding tonight’s draft:

-Although BC has stated he is not necessarily looking to get back into the draft, it's clear from some of the recent deals this week (Jefferson and Crawford) that certain teams are making moves with only financial considerations in mind. It would be wise for BC to leverage this somehow to pick-up another asset.

-Do you think BC regrets not dealing the team's second round pick (which was used on Jawai) for the handful of future second round picks offered at the time?

-There is a lot of discussion about why Toronto can't be more active in deals prior to the draft. The reason for this can be traced back to when BC packaged a plethora of assets for JO. As we all know, BC took a risk and the results were not pretty. The effects of that deal continue to be felt today. Although Marion is off the books the Raps just don't have any assets to get heavily involved on the trade market. The roster is currently made up of three core pieces in JC, Bosh and Bargs, a handful of scrubs in Banks, Douby, O'Bryant and Jawai and little else in terms of guaranteed deals. By dealing so many assets to Indiana BC severely limited his future options. In comparison to say San Antonio, the Raptors just don't have a variety of middle-of-the-road contracts to deal. As time goes on we see just how bad that deal was for the franchise. Of course hindsight is 20/20.

Adding to this last piece of Howland’s, it sounds like the going rate for second-round picks this year (cash + future second round picks) is extremely high. This is probably because of the parity in the draft, where early second-round picks could easily end up being more productive NBA players than many first-rounders.

Unfortunately after hearing that, I doubt we’ll see Toronto throw its hat in the ring for a second draft choice now, a shame as I believe that there are indeed many good prospects who will be available in round 2.

Finally, don't forget that we are hosting our annual draft party at Harbour Sports Grille tonight. Howland will be holding down the fort so if you think you’ll be dropping by, let us know in the comments section so we can book additional seating if need be.

I’m not sure what sort of set-up I’ll have in New York, but if possible will be live-blogging and sending up-to-the minute updates, interviews and other exclusives to Howland for posting.

It should be a very exciting night, and hopefully Toronto is able to grab some key pieces for the coming season(s.)

FRANCHISE

Oh and if the Draft isn't enough for you we have National Program news. With a jam packed summer scheduled for our many national teams, Canada Basketball has just released the men's and women's rosters that will be competing at the World University Games.Both teams, comprised of players from both the NCAA and CIS ranks, are scheduled to head out today for Europe. For more info on the event and the teams click the link.

Like DeRozan, Johnson has some of the best "upside" in the draft...

This is why I love the NBA draft.

Two huge trades already, and we’ve still got another 48 hours to go!

I think from here on out though we’ll probably only see small manoeuvres, but that doesn’t mean the actual draft is going to be any less entertaining.

For instance, what impact does Minnesota grabbing the fifth pick from Washington have on the Raptors?

Well, at face value, the impact appears to be zilch. From all reports, it sounds like Minny is targeting three players at 5; Rubio, Evans and Thabeet, all of whom were slated to go well before nine anyways. The problem for Minnesota of course is that all three could easily be gone before they get their shot at any of them. If that’s the case, the Wolves will be looking at the likes of James Harden and Stephen Curry in all likelihood with their next two picks.

So again, no impact on Toronto right?

Not exactly.

What if with their top three choices gone, Minnesota suddenly takes a liking to Demar DeRozan?

Then things could really get interesting.

As I discussed with the HQ Associate last night, the dream scenario would be for players like Holiday and Flynn to now jump into the mix in the top 8, thus causing someone like a Harden or Evans to fall.

However the chances of that happening are probably about the same as Chris Bosh signing a contract extension in a few weeks.

So for now, let’s assume that DeRozan is in play at 9. Based on his discussion with the media yesterday afternoon, Bryan Colangelo has his draft-list narrowed to five players:

-Demar DeRozan
-Gerald Henderson
-Jrue Holiday
-Jonny Flynn
-James Johnson

No big surprise there.

We first broke this story regarding three of the options weeks ago and Henderson was a natural addition once he came to work out. Therefore prior to last week, my guess would have been that Toronto had their group ranked as follows:

1) DeRozan
2) Holiday
3) Henderson
4) Flynn

So what about James Johnson?

I personally think that the Raptors extensively scouted Johnson this past year, and that he was always on their radar. However it was only upon closer inspection, that they vaulted him into their top five. And even though he had a sub-par workout for the Dinos recently, something we recapped here, he must have shown enough to warrant a second look as the Raptors apparently brought him back for another look in the past few days.

Holiday returned as well for a last-second glimpse so again, you have to wonder just what the final order of Toronto’s top five will look like come Thursday.

I personally think Henderson and Flynn, my two favourites of the bunch, are sitting in seats 4 and 5 respectively, and that DeRozan is still the top gun, but really, it’s anyone’s guess how this plays out, especially now that Minny holds picks five and six and has a back-court of Sebastian Telfair and…um…me.

If the Wolves decide to swing for the fences on DeRozan (which personally would astound me based on the success of a recent "upside" pick in Corey Brewer), then I’ve got a feeling that James Johnson suddenly emerges as the top candidate. That would leave really throw the rest of the draft for a loop wouldn’t it?

In fact Draftexpress.com’s newest mock shows that scenario, and I have to say it looks to be pretty bang on.

But if James Johnson is now indeed top dog at 9, how does he stack up against the rest of the prospects?

Recently, everyone and their dog has been firing out various statistical analyses of this year’s draft prospects, so I thought I’d throw my hat in the ring. But instead of coming up with new metrics, I put together a sort of "mega-analysis," and combined key stats from John Hollinger and ESPN’s D.R.A.F.T. initiative, and those compiled by our friends at DraftExpress in their recent five-part positional series.

To see the result, you can click on this link which should open up a Google spreadsheet but first, let me explain my methodology.

For starters, I looked at only positions that were of interest to the Raptors in this draft. Therefore all centers were eliminated from the compilation.

Second, I eliminated the following top prospects, who seem a lock to be gone by the time Toronto drafts; Blake Griffin, Ricky Rubio, Hasheem Thabeet, and James Harden.

Then, I looked at only the remaining US college stars, as their stats were much more readily available and probably a lot more sturdy in terms of projecting off of (not to mention much more likely to be taken at 9 by Toronto.)

In terms of metrics, I also examined only stats that I felt were key to the Raptors this coming season. Therefore metrics like "points scored," "3-point attempts," "assists" and "free-throw percentage" I threw out the window. As you can see from the spreadsheet, I focussed solely on stats that spoke to areas of need for Toronto, and therefore statistics that would hopefully identify which players would be most beneficial to the Raptors in terms of upgrading key areas. These included:

-Free-throw attempts per possession (attempting to measure a player’s aggressiveness in terms of attacking the basket.)
-True-shooting percentage (attempting to measure a player’s true offensive efficiency by factoring in free-throw and 3-point shooting.)
-Assist to Turnover Ratio (classic measure of how well a player takes care of the ball and makes decisions with it)
-Rebounds per 40 Minutes (attempting to garner a player’s rebounding propensity)
-Steals and Blocks per 40 Minutes (not a perfect way to measure a player’s defensive abilities but does take some of these things in addition to athleticism, length etc, into consideration)
-PER – John Hollinger’s measure of a player’s value on the floor
-Hollinger Draft Rater – From ESPN’s analysis this score is a forecast of what level Hollinger expects a given prospect to produce at at the peak of their NBA production.

Finally, I applied these metrics and rules to a list of 30 players, all of whom had been graded by Draftexpress.com, and most of whom had been graded by Hollinger as well.

(For a full explanation of metrics, see this link.)

The results were quite interesting.

As per Hollinger’s article, his top prospect was Ty Lawson. Lawson also tested out extremely well using Draftexpress.com’s analysis and I truly believe that whoever drafts him, probably later in the first round, will have one of the more productive NBA players when we look back at this draft in a few years.

But for our purposes, I want to focus on the Raptors’ top five list to see how each shook out, starting with Mr. DeRozan.

To be honest, my analysis has DeRozan in a similar light as what John Hollinger reported about a week ago; there’s just nothing statistically that indicates that Demar will be a huge success in the NBA across my key metrics. He ranked right in the middle of the prospects I surveyed in terms of ability to get to the line (behind several less-mobile bigs in fact like DeJuan Blair and DeMarre Carroll), near the bottom of the group in true shooting percentage (and obvious red flag), had the fifth-worst assist-to-turnover ratio of the 30 prospects I surveyed, and while was slightly better in terms of rebounding, for someone so athletic his steals per 40 minutes and blocks per 40 minutes were quite poor. In fact his blocks per 40 were in the range of many of the point guards in my survey. Of the group he also posted the second worst PER.

Of course if Toronto is drafting DeRozan it’s on his upside and with only one year of college experience, one could argue that these stats don’t tell the whole story.

Therefore I did a compare of sorts, and matched DeRozan’s key metrics to those of another one-and-done athlete, Thaddeus Young. Unfortunately, Young’s stats surpassed those of DeRozan in virtually every area with the exception of blocks per 40 minutes, both sat at 0.5.

Jrue Holiday fared better than DeRozan, especially in the defensive metrics (his 2.3 steals per 40 minutes was one of the top marks in my group of 30), but he hardly blew anyone away either in many categories. Unfortunately, much like Rajon Rondo at Kentucky, it’s hard to take many of Holiday’s stats at face value because of the system he played in; it simply didn’t take advantage of his offensive abilities.

Jonny Flynn and Gerald Henderson tested out as the two top prospects of Toronto’s group of five and while their PER scores weren’t great, again, Syracuse’s zone and Duke’s "spread the floor" system probably factor in a lot here as well.

So what about James Johnson, the new dark horse option for Toronto at 9?

Unfortunately he wasn’t far from DeRozan in terms of under-performing in key areas.

His free-throw attempts per possession were fifth worst in my group of 30, and his assist to turnover ratio and steals per 40 minutes metrics ranked near the bottom of the pool as well.

The two areas Johnson did excel in however were rebounding and shot-blocking, and perhaps the thought from the Raptors’ brain-trust is that they can work on improving the rest of his game – these two traits are ones that would translate to the NBA right away. Johnson’s 9.9 boards per 40 minutes was behind only DeJuan Blair and Jordan Hill in my survey, and his 1.8 blocks per 40 ranked behind only the aforementioned Hill.

Conclusions to be drawn from all of this?

For me, I’d prefer if Toronto stayed away from both DeRozan and Johnson, the latter especially. I can see what Colangelo is thinking in that both players provide potential upgrades in size and or strength/athletic ability that this team sorely needs, but I’m just not sure their stats bear this out. For players who should have had the ability to create mismatches at the college level, this sure didn’t show through statistically and going into the bigger and stronger NBA, this has to be a concern.

Perhaps what really stood out to me from my analysis however wasn’t so much the pros and cons of top-rated prospects, but which players could be huge second-round sleepers in this draft. Here are a few notable names:

-Paul Harris posted incredible rebounding and free-throw attempt per possession metrics. His length and toughness at the 3 could be a great value in the second-round.
-Jerel McNeal continues to look like a high-value late option and his 2.2 steals per 40 minutes was one of the top marks defensively in the group of 30.
-Danny Green has all the statistical markers of a solid NBA pro for years to come. He contributes positively in almost every key stat and considering Toronto has brought him in for workouts now in two consecutive years, perhaps they take a flyer on him.
-Wes Matthews and Jermaine Taylor are two other players I’d love to see the Dinos snatch up late in the draft if possible. Matthews is an excellent athlete who overall put up some of the best metrics of any of the 30 players I examined. He’s a very solid defender in the Dahntay Jones mould, excels at getting to the line, and would be a cheap replacement in my opinion for Joey Graham, providing very similar skills.

Taylor tested out as one of the best athletes in the combine (his vertical was a shade under 38 inches) and reminds me a lot of Von Wafer. Both played under the radar for lesser-known schools, both can score at will and both have questions regarding defensive intensity and shot-selection.

Franchise would love to see Wes Matthews somehow end up in a Raptors' uniform on draft night...

Due to the parity in this draft, and the fact that many teams like Portland and Minnesota have excessive draft picks, perhaps Toronto can grab someone with a great deal of upside late in the process. Considering this economy, there’s very little risk in doing so as only after Summer League and Training Camp would the Raptors actually have to commit to such a player.

As a final note, we’ll be having our annual NBA Draft Party at Harbour Sports Grille here in Toronto tomorrow night. Howland will be holding down the fort himself this year as I will actually be attending the draft in New York, an incredibly exciting development made possible by media access via the Raptors and the NBA. Unfortunately due to work I’ll be missing today’s series of prospect interviews, but I’ll heading off to NYC tomorrow afternoon and blogging live from the actual event bringing all the Raptors-news and notes.

FRANCHISE

Two of the guys discussed on Sunday.

Howland and Jonathan talked the upcoming NBA Draft of Sunday and here's the transcript.

HOWLAND: It looks like it has been another great year for DX. What has transpired over the last 365?

Jonathan Givony (JG): This year we have sent a lot of time upgrading our database. We have added a lot more stats this year and our traffic numbers continue to rise. The search engines are liking us more and more, and we’re at or near the top of the first page when you Google almost any prospect in this draft. We have a great partnership going with NBA.com which I feel adds some credibility to what we do.

The key to our year was the work we put into the site in November through February. As you can read in the New York Times article on this topic, the mock draft is fun to speculate about and the rumors as well, but the core of what we do is the database and the scouting reports. You can click on any first and second round guy and even some undrafted guys and find a wealth of information, be it scouting reports, measurements or stats.

Some of these guys we’ve been following since high school, even from their junior year. This is what sets us apart from any of the other outlets in my opinion. Everything we write about every prospect is right there, so in that regard we are very accountable, which I’m not sure is always the case with everyone else. We have almost 6000 profiles on the site, but of course not all of them are filled. Some of them are ex-NBA players from years ago. Pretty much every NBA player has something and that was one of our goals this year was beefing up the database with the Kobe Bryant's and the Derek Fisher's and everyone else. We also spent the year updating profiles as well. For example, Brandon Roy has exceeded our expectations and we needed to update.

Our staff has improved a lot as well. They are outstanding and just a huge part of what we do, starting with our programmer Doug Thonus and continuing with the guys that help write scouting reports and articles—Matt Kamalsky, Joey Whelan, Kyle Nelson, Joseph Treutlein, Rick Ditto, Scott Nadler and many others throughout the years.

That’s what really excites me about what we’re doing—I could see us becoming sort of an IMDB of basketball in a few years. Hopefully we’ll be able to keep the site free in the process. There is a tremendous wealth of knowledge there that a lot of people helped contribute to.

HOWLAND: Let's get right into the draft talk – this crop of prospects has been described as a weaker draft class than most years. What are your feelings on the 2009 draft class?

JG: I don't think there is any question that a lot of guys passed up entering the draft this year. Unlike last year where everyone you thought would be in and 10 more guys declared, this year it is everyone you though would declare except 10 or so guys. This really takes away a lot of depth, in particular at the top where the Raptors are picking. Look who is in the mix at 9 for the Raps. If would have been very different if guys like Al-Farouq Aminu, Cole Aldrich, Evan Turner, John Henson, and Donatas Montiejunas were in. Those guys would have been in the picture at 9, and at worst they would have pushed other players down.

I would say the Raptors pick this year at 9 is more like a 15-16 pick in a regular draft year. There is no way to ignore that and for this reason it has been challenging for us to cover. It feels like this year there just are not that many interesting guys to evaluate and then you start to debate whether you are over-analyzing them. I was happy to go out to Colorado Springs last week and just get started on next year. Maybe it is because we have been focusing on this draft for the last 10 months and all the speculation and drama starts to wear on you eventually, but I am ready to move on to 2010.

HOWLAND: One of the most interesting characteristics about this draft is that outside of Griffin there doesn't seem to be a consensus regarding the next best prospect. How would you break this draft class down into tiers?

JG: Well I would definitely but Rubio in a separate tier right after Blake. I would then put Harden, Curry and Jennings into the next tier, all for different reasons. After that you get Hill, Thabeet, Flynn, Evans. That's how I break it down, but there are a lot of differing opinions out there.

HOWLAND: Although you believe Rubio is the second best player in the draft there is some debate as to where he will end up. What are your thoughts on him and do you think he will produce right away or will he need time to develop?

JG: I think he will need some time to adjust because the style of play in the NBA is so radically different than where he has been playing the last few years. He's the youngest prospect in this draft, but that being said, he is the most experienced, which makes for a very unique combination. I like him a lot as a prospect in this draft. He has All-Star potential as a point guard. There are some things that he can do that very few point guards in the NBA can do. He has tremendous vision and anticipation as well as great ability to see the court and make great decisions. These are the characteristics that set him apart. He will have to get stronger and adapt his game, but he is smart enough, talented enough and young enough that this won't be a major issue. He is clearly the most talented point guard in this draft, just ahead of Brandon Jennings in my view.

HOWLAND: One of the things we talked about last year was work-ethic. Which prospects have really blown you away during the pre-draft process with their work ethic?

JG: Blake Griffin is one. You don’t go from being a borderline McDonald's All-American to a number one pick unless you have tremendous work ethic. The other guy is Stephen Curry. This guy was completely off the map in high-school and no-one had heard of him at all. Not only did he become an unbelievable scorer at the college level, but then he re-defined himself as a point guard as well which is very rare. A lot of that is his perseverance and his character as well as how smart he is and how hard he works. Those two guys really stand out this year.

HOWLAND: Speaking of Stephen Curry, it strikes me that he is going to have to succeed as a PG at the next level because there is a long track record of guys his size who failed playing the two. Do you feel that curry can succeed as a NBA PG?

JG: I think he is totally a point guard. I don't think there is any doubt that he can play the point in today's NBA. This year think of the guys they had playing with him and you will see that he didn't really have anyone to pass to and he still averaged over 6 assists a game. Outside of him there was really only one other division 1 player on the Davidson roster. I have seen him make enough smart passes to not have a problem projecting him as a point guard. He is a very unselfish player, he is very smart. At 6'3" he has above average size for an NBA point guard.

HOWLAND: What have you been hearing about the Raps and who they are targeting?

JG: I don't think there is any question that if DeRozan is on the board that they will take him, unless someone that no-one anticipated falling is available. I don't see this happening though. It's DeRozan.

HOWLAND: Speaking of Derozan, John Hollinger and his statistical break-down have him as one of the most over-rated prospects in the draft. What is your take on Derozan?

JG: Hollinger was very open to admitting that his break-down didn't do a great job of projecting one and done guys. A lot of statistical system last year were not high on Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon and O.J. Mayo but those guys turned out just fine. On the other hand people thought was Michael Beasley had numbers unlike anyone else in a long time. Beasley is a good player but both the stats and DX though he was going to be better. The stats are just a tool, one of many that NBA teams should look at. NBA teams should definitely use them and factor them into their decisions, though. I think Hollinger is clearly the best basketball mind that is out there in the journalism realm. His work speaks for itself. I respect what he says on that front and we’ve said many of the same things, but with DeRozan you have to dig a little deeper than just that. We were really critical about Derozan through the year. He started off awful and didn't look like an NBA player at all until about February. He got a lot better over the last month or two of the year. If you ran his numbers over the past few months he would have looked better, albeit with a smaller sample size.

With that said, Raptor fans need to understand that Derozan is a project. He is not going to significantly change anything for them this upcoming year in the win/loss column. He will be a rotation guy, but it is all about developing him for the future.

HOWLAND: Do you think Derozan is overrated?

JG: Derozan being considered a top ten guy obviously has something to do with how shallow this year’s class is. There just any many better prospects available. He is a guy who fits the mold of having NBA size and athleticism on the wing. He was a highly ranked high-school player and this is where his draft standing is coming from, not necessarily from what he has done on the court thus far. It's all about what he might develop into, and obviously that's a risky proposition. It could go either way. I don't think anyone has enough data on him to make a judgment on whether he will definitively be a stud in the NBA or not. He may or may not be helping himself by refusing to conduct individual workouts.

HOWLAND: Who would you consider the most over-rated player in this year’s draft based on their talent and where they are projected to be picked?

JG: In terms of overrated we have been very skeptical about Thabeet over the past three years. There is no question he has improved, but I have a hard time seeing him as a number two pick, which seems to be where we are headed. I guess we will have to wait and see how he turns out, but if you read what we have written about him throughout the years you'll see we are not 100% sold and have been very open about that.

HOWLAND: And under-rated?

JG: From an underrated perspective, Brandon Jennings. Most NBA teams just haven’t seen how talented he is because they weren’t allowed to watch him in high-school and he didn't play much in Europe. In the work-outs people are starting to see the talent, but he has even more than that if you put him in a 5 on 5 setting. From the scrimmages I attended in Rome, the Synergy footage I’ve watched and the game I was at, I was pretty floored. He has a chance to be pretty awesome.

In terms of the comments he made about Rubio…It was obviously stupid to say some of those things, and this was obviously a concern we had early on. The first article I wrote on him was in late 07 or early 08 after we watched him in a high-school tournament. The first impression I had was that he was cocky, arrogant and way too flashy. He was not very mature, but on the other hand, a lot of 19 year olds aren’t. I can tell you that I said and did some really stupid stuff at his age, but thankfully no one had a microphone or video camera to record them.

From being around him a little bit it seems like he actually is a really good guy with a great family around him. I think he might just be getting too caught up in trying be someone he isn't. He has so much desire to show people how good he is that sometimes maybe that comes off the right way. At heart I think he is a good dude, but he needs to be with people that are not afraid to tell him to put a sock in it. One thing people can't question however, is his talent.

HOWLAND: A favorite of the HQ is Terrence Williams. Since the beginning of last season he has moved around a lot on mock draft boards and now there are rumors of him to GS at 7 (DX has him at 11). What is the consensus, or is there a consensus on him as a player?

JG: There is no consensus on him as a player. If you want to take a guy like him and have him succeed you need to have the right kind of players around him which I am not sure the Raps have. Williams is a limited guy offensively. You need a point guard who can penetrate, another wing who can create and a big who requires a double-team and I am not sure the Raps have all those ingredients. If you draft the guy you are getting an all around role player but with the current make-up of the Raps roster, I am just not sure he is a great fit there. They need someone who can do a little bit more offensively I suspect.

HOWLAND: To me it seems like DeRozan is a boom/bust player and Williams is a safer pick. My preference would be to take a guy like Williams and allow him to complement the team's style. Do you think that is the wrong approach?

JG: You can find parts like Terrence Williams, but it is harder to find a superstar. Derozan's upside may lead you to believe that he will be a star and it is tough to pass on that. I am a little skeptical that he can become that All-Star, but I am sure the Raptors have more information on him than I do.

HOWLAND: What about Toronto as a destination for prospects? We spoke with Jerel McNeal recently and asked if there was a stigma about playing north of the border. Even though this is one of the biggest media markets in North America, do you hear any such rumblings from prospective picks?

JG: I think initially it is a pain for them to go and get their passports, but once they get past that, I don't think it is an issue. Once you get to Toronto, walk around and see how incredibly beautiful and diverse it is, how could you not want to go there? I would rank Toronto in the top 10 in terms of NBA cities I would want to live in without a doubt. Initially I think prospects might say "No, I don't want to go there" but first of all they don't have a choice and secondly once they get there they figure out pretty quick that Toronto is an awesome city. I don't think it is an issue that Raptors fans have to worry about. Maybe I am wrong but my initial impression is it is not an issue, except for maybe the tax situation which I’m not all that familiar with.

HOWLAND: How about Andrea Bargnani? Since we spoke last year he has really blossomed as a player, why do you think that is?

JG: I think the jury is still out on him. I think he had a really good year which is encouraging. but I think he still has a long way to go before becoming a player that should have been a top 3 or top 5 pick and that can really carry you into the playoffs. I don't think he is ever going to be the type of player you can build a team around, but maybe I’m wrong.

My personal philosophy is that the way he produces is not necessarily conducive to winning games. His rebounding is atrocious for a big man. Inch for inch, he may be the worst rebounder in the NBA. He is not particularly efficient, his 2 point percentages are low, and even though he is a great three-point shooter, that's not enough, because you need someone to create those looks for him. I am not sure he’s a guy that can create high-percentage shots for himself.

Although he made strides defensively, I would still consider him to be below average there. In terms of toughness and doing the little things it takes to win games, I’m not sure he is a good fit at all alongside Chris Bosh. There is a lot of duplication there. I’m not sure what to think about what people say about his intangibles, about his feel and passion for the game. Maybe if the team had a different style of big man, like a Paul Millsap-type, it would be more beneficial to him, but with the way the Raptors are currently built, it’s tough to get too excited about Bargnani. I could be wrong though. He improved a lot this year. Let’s see what he does next season and revisit.

Note** A big thanks to Jonathan for taking the time to discuss the 2009 NBA Draft. Our annual interview with him is definitely one of the best interviews we do all year.

HOWLAND

Even if DeRozan is the next Gay, can the Raptors afford to wait on his development?

Four days until the draft.

Four days until Demar DeRozan is the newest Toronto Raptor right?

Since we saw Jrue Holiday work out in person, the HQ has suspected that he, DeRozan, Henderson and Flynn were at the top of Toronto’s "one of these guys should be available at 9" draft board.

DeRozan appears to be the favourite, and Bryan Colangelo hasn’t been shy in recent radio interviews about his affinity for the USC product.

But is this the right way for BC to go?

Interestingly, the poll on our home page had most fans favouring DeRozan and Tyreke Evans by a long shot up until last week. Suddenly, some interesting statistical information courtesy of Jon Hollinger was revealed, and then that poll started to change. Guys like Gerald Henderson and Jonny Flynn started to gain momentum, and even the comments on the site referred to the dangers of drafting DeRozan.

There’s no clear answer of course.

As you’ll read in our interview with Jonathan Givony of Draftexpress, none of these prospects are exactly blue-chippers, and so picking DeRozan in the long run might be the best bet.

However here’s a thought I had this weekend.

Let’s say DeRozan is like T-Mac when he first came to the Raptors. In year one, he doesn’t play much, and when he does, looks years away from being able to contribute. In year two, he’s a bit better, and like McGrady shows flashes of brilliance at times. The Raptors exercise their option on him, and finally in year 3 he breaks out.

However without DeRozan being a factor in year one, and without much financial room for the sweeping talent-upgrade the team needed, the Delfino-Marion-Evans trio only brings in a few more wins for Toronto, and Bosh eventually goes south.

Without Bosh, the team continues to be mired in mediocrity and although the Raptors hold DeRozan’s rights, he makes it known then when his contract is up, he too has his bags packed.

Yes, rather a doom and gloom scenario I realize.

But is it that unrealistic?

By all accounts DeRozan is an athletic marvel but a project nonetheless. I’m not sure anyone, the Raptors’ brass included, is counting on him to contribute much next year.

But therein lies the problem.

If Bryan Colangelo truly wants the best chance at keeping Chris Bosh, he not only will probably need to pony up a max contract, but he’ll also have to put together a squad that showed a lot more promise then that of last year. As I’ve discussed many-a-time, by not moving CB4 this off-season, he’s essentially loading up a one-year game of Russian roulette where simply returning to the playoffs, probably won’t be enough.

This team needs to show that it’s on track to compete with the best in the East and even if it’s not this year, it needs to be in the near future I’m guessing for Bosh’s sake.

So does adding DeRozan really help this situation?

It reminds me a bit of Houston trading Rudy Gay and parts on draft day for Shane Battier. At the time, this was viewed as a bad move by the Rockets to give up on a player of Gay’s star potential.

But here we are three years later, and the Rockets are still reaping the benefits of that deal. Gay might be a more dangerous offensive player, and a future all-star, but Houston recognized that Battier was a better fit for their club, and they wanted to start winning now, not in five years.

So this is my question; can Colangelo afford to gamble on "upside" with this pick?

The counter-point to all of this obviously is that perhaps DeRozan DOES have an impact next year, and perhaps Toronto walks away with the player who is eventually the best from this draft class, surpassing even Blake Griffin. And perhaps even if DeRozan doesn’t develop, BC’s next moves via free-agency, which arguably are going to have a much bigger on-court impact for next season, mean that Toronto doesn’t need to rely on Demar anyways, and he can develop at his own pace.

I guess my fear is just that you only get so many rolls of the dice.

So why not play the best odds each time instead of trying to come up with the one big score?

Well, perhaps it’s just not in BC’s nature.

ESPN.com on Friday actually had Colangelo ranked as the top GM in terms of "drafting prowess" in a comparison of NBA GM’s over the past 20 years.

And looking at his track record, he has come up huge on similar "athletic projects" like Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire.

(As a side note, it’s interesting that the Raptors have had the top two executives in the ESPN survey, Colangelo and Thomas, and also two of the bottom five in Jack McCloskey and Pete Babcock, who of course was helping out brother Rob.)

So maybe, for the man who ESPN.com quoted as saying \"At the end of the day, you also have to trust your gut," this is hardly a risky pick at all.

But that’s still not saying grabbing DeRozan is the right choice.

The argument could be made that instead of the typical, "drafting for need vs. drafting the best remaining talent on the board" options, Toronto should explore a third choice; drafting for skill sets. While drafting on upside has surely been a crapshoot (Shawne Williams) and so has drafting to fill a need (big man – Hoffa), the one thing that has panned out historically is grabbing a player with a discernible skill set that translates from college to the NBA (ie; rebounding, 3-point shooting, etc.)

It doesn’t necessarily guarantee the best prospect when all is said and done, but it might make a lot more sense than simply taking a flyer on someone to simply fill a position, or who offers upside. Suddenly under this theorem, players like DeJuan Blair (rebounding) and even Jeff Teague (ability to attack the basket) become much more valuable.

Looking at things this way, you’d have to say then that Gerald Henderson probably is the best play at nine. Yes he’s a wing with some upside, so fits both the "need and best player" suppositions, but he also excels at getting to the rim and defending on the perimeter, two skills that have shown time and time again to translate at the NBA level.

However when all is said and done, I do believe that if DeRozan is there at nine, he’ll be Colangelo’s choice rightly or wrongly. The Raptors’ PR crew informed us late last night that there will be no more workouts this week so it looks like Toronto is happy with the pool of players they’ve seen, and don’t expect the likes of Harden or Evans to be around when the Raptors draft.

Of course a lot can change over the next four days.

With trade rumours flying regarding teams like Washington and Minnesota, who knows how things will play out Thursday night, and the NBA’s "Green Room" List released at Draftexpress this morning is a testament to this uncertainty.

Do the Raptors think they’re cutting through a lot of this uncertainty and grabbing a fairly sure thing in DeRozan?

Perhaps.

But I’m sure if you talked to Denver’s management about their drafting of Nikoloz Tskitishvilli in 2002, they were probably saying the same thing…

FRANCHISE

PS – A huge win for Canada Basketball yesterday as the U16 Men’s Team thrashed Venezuela 106 to 81 to claim a bronze medal, and win a spot in the 2010 World Championship’s.