Trend or Blip on the Radar; Examining the Toronto Raptors' Start to the Season
by Adam Francis on Jan 5, 2012 11:55 AM EST
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Surprised by the Raptors' early season success? The HQ argues that perhaps you shouldn't be, and that this start to the season is a best case scenario for fans...
About a month ago, I took a look at how I thought the Toronto Raptors' 2011-12 schedule might play out.
Essentially, I had the team win 21 games based loosely on strength of schedule and expectations weren't so high.
However with last night's 92 to 77 win, the Raps may have raised fan expectations.
The club now sits at .500 with three wins and three losses, and all three losses were of the "we could have won that game" variety. Couple that with a stretch of upcoming games against the Nets, 76ers, Timberwolves, Wizards and Kings, teams that right now have a combined record of 8 and 23, and this club could easily be in the top tier of the Eastern Conference, mid-way through the month.
It's a fascinating situation, and one that I'd like to discuss a bit today instead of the usual post-game analysis.
After all, this is essentially the same team that won 22 of 82 games last season.
As one of our readers noted in the comments from our "Rapid Recap," there are a myriad of factors which likely help make sense of things, so I thought we'd take a look at them, starting with the club's improved D, and attempt to determine if this early season success is indeed a trend that will continue, or a flash in the pan.
1) Improved Defense.
This is the obvious one. Toronto last year was by far the league's worst defensive club, and it really didn't matter how you looked at it. This year, albeit through six games, the club looks a lot better in this respect, and currently is allowing only 91.5 opponent points per game, good for 7th in the league. While their offense isn't great, 92.2 PPG means a positive differential, something the team hasn't had in ages. In the last few seasons the team may have been scoring at a high rate, but they were allowing opponents to rack up just as many buckets, if not more.
However as The National Post's Eric Koreen noted yesterday, the defensive statistics are misleading. The team is playing at a snail's pace, 26th slowest in the league in fact, and therefore this simply isn't allowing for much scoring on either side of the court. The D has improved, the club is indeed 14th in the league in defensive rating and holding opponents to a league-low field-goal percentage of .398, but there are definitely other factors at play too, and it's hard to say that the D is the one and only reason the club looks like it is on the verge of being a plus .500 club.
2) The Play of Andrea Bargnani:
If you're going down the list of obvious reasons, this would be next I'd expect. His averages of 24 points and 6 rebounds a game don't scream out at you, after all, he averaged 21.4 and 5.2 last season. But it's the way the former number one overall pick is getting those numbers, especially the "24 points per game" piece. Last season he shot 45 per cent from the field and averaged nearly 18 field goal attempts per game. This year Andrea's been much more efficient hitting on a blistering 55 per cent of his shots, while attempting nearly two less a game.
It's not just his scoring that's better either. His defensive rating is a respectable 104 and while he's still not a rebounding force, he's looked much more aggressive in that capacity.
To me though there's something else going on with Andrea that's not being discussed enough. He's simply not being a black hole on offense. His assist percentage jumped from 8.8 last year to 14.5 so far this season, and Dwane Casey has found a way to get him involved in the offence without sacrificing teammate offensive production.
Last night against the Cavs, Andrea had one of the club's higher assist rates, an unheard of comment last season. And the assists aren't just coming on perimeter swings that sharpshooters like Calderon are nailing. He's getting it done at the rim as was the case last night, when all three of his assists gave teammates easy looks inside the paint.
Put this together and you've got a PER of 24.2, far and away the highest mark of his career to date, and his highest wins produced per 48 minute mark. Admittedly after five seasons of waiting for this player, I'm a bit leery to jump on the "Andrea is an All-Star" bandwagon yet, but there's no question he's one of the team's two MVP's this young season along with Jose Calderon.
My question is where did this all come from?
It's nearly unheard for players at Andrea's position and age to suddenly morph into top tier players but through six games, that's what's going on here.
Maybe Andrea is finally "getting it" after five years in the league. Maybe his off-season finally gave him the necessary preparation he needed to be the team's go-to guy.
Or maybe there's something else here at work which we'll call...
3) The Dwane Casey Effect:
As longtime readers know, I'm not a big believer in coaching impact at the NBA level. Sure there are your Phil Jackson's and Larry Brown's, but otherwise, I tend to think that it's the players on the court that truly decide a team's fate, not the person in charge of telling them what plays to run. Is Doug Collins a huge upgrade over Lawrence Frank? Or Frank over Mark Jackson? One may be better on D, another on O, another in terms of player development etc, but overall I tend to think that these even out, and if you get to be an NBA coach, you're pretty much on par with the bulk of your confederates.
But this Casey situation is putting these beliefs of mine to the test.
You can see and feel the difference with Casey, whether it's on TV, or in the locker room amongst the players. There's just a different attitude, and the team simply looks more prepared to go out and fight each night. As well, the club for the most part looks like it gained 5 years of NBA experience over the summer and I think that's thanks to Casey as well. Both Sam Mitchell and Jay Triano were quite "green" by NBA standards, and Casey's experience and know-how seems to be rubbing off during various in-game situations. Last night against the Cavs the team got stuck a few times in late shot-clock situations, yet desperation heaves were few and far between. Casey's steadying hands seems to have had a major impact at both ends of the court, and individually, he's been able to get a lot more out of players like Bargnani and James Johnson than many would have believed possible.
4) A Healthy Jose Calderon:
Was Jose ever really healthy the past two seasons?
He's insisted, especially last year, that health wasn't an issue but it's hard not to think that the 2011-12 version is the freshest Jose we've seen in quite some time.
Jose is averaging 12.2 points and 10 assists per game, essentially career highs, all the while running the team's offence to perfection. Without him on the court the Dinos have really struggled, and his chemistry with the likes of Bargnani and Amir Johnson, especially on pick-and-rolls, has been problem for opposing defenses. He's looked quicker on D too, and while Casey is riding him pretty hard in terms of minutes, there's not much choice considering the current back-up PG situation.
Most importantly in my books, Jose's shooting percentages have bounced back from their gradual decline the past few years. He's shooting 53 per cent from the field, 46 per cent from 3, and hasn't missed a free-throw. With the attention Andrea is going to be getting this season, it's paramount that he makes his open looks and so far this season, he's doing just that, in addition to providing his usual control of the team's offence.
5) Additional Factors:
The team's D, Andrea and Jose's level of play and Dwane Casey's addition are all biggies in terms of explaining a .500 record, but there's more here too. On the plus side, DeMar's new-found ability to knock down the 3, James Johnson's intangibles, Amir Johnson manning the 5 and the veteran presence of guys like Jamaal Magloire are all important pieces.
But there's something else here that unfortunately looms large in explaining Toronto's success to this point.
The club's schedule.
Two of Toronto's wins have come against a Cleveland Cavaliers team that was expected to be one of the three worst teams in the league this year.
The other win came against a New York Knicks team missing Amar'e Stoudemire, and that even with him, can't beat clubs like the lowly Charlotte Bobcats.
That's not to say they were "bad" wins.
The club is doing essentially what it should be doing; beating bad teams and losing close games to the better clubs.
A 3 and 3 start then, considering the opposition, shouldn't be that big of a stretch and even if the team wins three or four of its next five, I'm not sure it should be that shocking. To me it will be wins against some of the league's top quality opponents that will truly signify that the club is taking the next step.
But to flip things again, I don't think a favourable schedule should diminish what the team has done already, either. As noted above, we're seeing very real improvements from both team and individual play, and had this not been the case, the club could easily have started 0 and 6, regardless of opponent.
So is the .500 start a trend, or more of a product of their schedule?
I'm going with both here as while I think the actual wins mark is more thanks to scheduling, I do think the other factors I mentioned, such as the improvement on D, will continue throughout the season.
This will likely result in more wins than many had expected, and that's perhaps a best case scenario is it not?
The early wins that we're seeing should result in a more confident group, something that will be good to pocket for the season's darker days.
Those darker days should definitely arrive though as the schedule toughens up, and that bodes well for someone in favour of ensuring a top draft pick.
Yet even in future losses, we should continue to see a team that fights tooth and nail, and just falls short thanks to an absence of talent.
I'd argue that in a year like this, you want a team that wins enough games to see their own improvement, and thus stays motivated, yet still falls short of playoffs, ensuring a shot at more premium talent for the future.
So far I think you can check off both of those boxes, and to me, that's all you can ask for.
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Andrea and DeRozan
I think you were absolutely bang-on with the Casey affect and Bargnani’s change in mindset. On defense, he looks much more aggressive hedging on screens and much less confused. Bargnani has above average foot speed for a big guy and he is actually taking advantage of that. On offense, how many highlights of Bargnani’s passing were there last year? Nothing sticks out in my mind that’s for sure. He isn’t the second coming of Vlade Divac but he has the basketball IQ to at least be above average in this regard. Bargs has kept his head up and has actively spotted cutters this year, an element missing from anything we have seen thus far. Whether this lasts hinges on “the Casey effect”. The intangible influence of Casey on Bargnani reminds me of the influence of Charles Oakley and Antonio Davis on VC. Bargnani hasn’t looked this fired up to play basketball since his rookie season and whether Casey is responsible for lighting a fire under his butt or Triano for suppressing it is hard to tell at this point
DeRozan
I was also going to comment on DeRozan’s improved jumper. His whole shooting motion looks infinitely more fluid and he appears very comfortable shooting it. I hope he doesn’t fall too much in love with the 3, but the spacing his shooting threat provides has greatly improved our ability to attack the paint. He’s also taking 3’s from 28 feet out so it looks like all of that time off has already paid off
The thing is
He took many of those 3s when he was wide open. Those are shots that all NBA coaches would want any competent shooter to take. The first ones were swishes too.
Of the ones he took that were more contested, I think at least a couple of them were at the end of the shot clock. To me, these were the more impressive ones because they foreshadow the defense that DD will see more of now that he can knock down 3s at a quality rate. The fact that he hit some of them despite the defense is good news.
He took 8 threes, but I think that was more a product of his situation (being absolutely unguarded or at the end of the shot clock) rather than pure chucking because he now has the range.
Demar's shooting stroke...
His technique is fantastic and the results are stellar, when he isn’t rushed…
The thing I noticed repeatedly over the last few games was that if he had to get a shot off quickly, it was a HORRIBLE miss…
This is probably a significant factor of why he doesn’t create his own shot more and passes back to Jose if he isn’t wide open…
This isn’t a bad thing either…
To me this means he knows his current limitations, is content to play inside of them, and will continue to work on removing those limitations…
Kudos son… Kudos
"the Truth"
demar
hes going to soon learn how to take over games! of his draft class… who do you think is better right now? not blake lets keep him in the following year!
Curry, Harden, Evans
are still all above him in my mind, however I do agree that DeMar has the drive and ability to reach a ceiling higher than all three, if not already better than Evans.
Jury is still out on Rubio, but I don’t think anyone will be questioning the DeRozan pick over Jennings at this point on.
by Clark's Moustache on Jan 5, 2012 7:37 PM EST up reply actions
Um no offense but even though Derozan has a better per and is shooting a better percentage, Jennings is scoring more and has a much higher assist rate while almost matching DD in rebounding even though Demar is 6 inches taller (Derozan – 4 rpg, Jennings 3.3). As for the proceeding Demar is better than Blake Griffin comment, you should not talk about basketball if you are going to say dumb things like that.
Well, demarD was saying he wanted to consider Blake to be drafted the years after DeRozan because he was hurt that year so that DD could (potentially) be considered the best in his class. As such, I’m pretty sure he was saying Blake is much better than DD.
And Jennings has an assist rate below 25% – for a PG that is pretty bad. Now DD is not a good passer, but it is less critical at his spot than at PG.
Jennings is scoring 19.8 points on 18 FGA. DeRozan is scoring 18.5 points on 14 FGA. He’s scoring more because he’s chucking.
Jennings TRB%: 4.5% – Demar’s TRB%: 7.3% Not that comparable.
Like you said, he has a higher PER (18.3 to 16.8), higher shooting percentage (.584 TS% to .496), and he also has a higher WS/48 thus far (.128 to .104).
by dhackett1565 on Jan 6, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
Strength of Schedule
Out the factors mentioned, I’m feeling this is the biggest issue. It’s hammered us in the past, with Toronto often coming on the short end of the stick where even the ‘winnable’ games are sandwiched in between difficult stretches. The negative effect on Toronto aside, when teams are able to get a stretch of wins against any calibre of teams, it’s bound to boost their confidence and for a shotmaking-reliant team like Toronto, confidence is everything. Then of course, shotmaking opens up the rim allowing for some real progress.
Hopefully the momentum continues and the result is team that can weather the inevitable storms that will hit. (Injuries, opposition scouting reports, tough losses)
After that, I rank the factors:
2. Casey effect – the man is a pro and a confident leader
3. Calderon health/confidence – he’s looking better than he even did in summer with spain
4. Defense – They know where to stand now!
5. Bargnani – Finally motivated – but for how long?
Would like to hear others ranking of factors…
Awesome read, feels like there’s finally something to talk about in raptorland
6. The Ed Davis on/off switch
GASP! Bargnani (to quote Franchise)
Up in the skyscrape, me and my apes, bake cakes.
casey
Casey of course has really helped this year but its way more then that.. . Bargs was put in a situation where bosh left and he was told to lead this team when he was not use to. He put up a lot of shots and was forced to play a roll he was not ready or needed some time to adapt. We didn’t have much options so the pressure was huge on him. Demar came on at the end too and ed davis.. Demar has improved… calderon also has amir chemistry and other players who are playing well so hes playing better too. james J also was working on defense all summer and it shows. From player development those are all huge gains plus add in some veteran players and a new defensive coach motivates them even more. Bargs now knows he doesn’t need to force shots like last year and worked on his weaknesses all summer
Bargs forcing shots
Yes he tried and was expected to do too much but that was never the big issue. Basketball is a game that requires D and O.
This issue was Bargs was playing centre last year and he wasn’t trying his hardest on the defensive end. It’s bad when the man on the court that is expect to anchor your defence, isn’t giving 100% and he wasn’t.
The great thing about Bargs this year is he is trying hard on D. He said after the game that he was happy to put the energy into D as a team and then to get confidence from getting stops and carrying that over to the O it was so refreshing….I think Casey has taught him a very important lesson in a very short period of time. He is obviously a great communicator.
by defensive rap on Jan 5, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
Different philosophy this year, over last.
Jay – get Bargnani going on the Offense, and his Defense will improve.
Casey – Defense first … then Offense.
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If I agreed with you, we’d both be wrong.
by RapthoseLeafs on Jan 5, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
On coaching
Not only does Cassey seem to be excellent but the assistant coaches are really involved during the game. It’s a dynamic bench of coaches.
Great point
Johny Davis and crew ain’t no slouches…
by MAS11 on Jan 5, 2012 8:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
competitve games
yes we have beat cavs twice out of are 3 wins but its the way we have played in all 6… look around the league and how many teams have gotten smoked in a game. whatever the team is… u just never know. Maybe Miami and a few other teams have not been smoked in a game. so that also tells u a lot about this team so far. Hope I didn’t speak to early and we get slaughtered by the nets!
schedule
I think we have played hard in every game and been competitive in every game. I also think we play tough and mean business. It’s like for the first time since Oakley and Davis left, we have a chip on our shoulder. We no longer smile when players drive by us to the hoop. Now we take it personal and do everything we can to stop him.
Evaluating the record of 3-3 against who we have played is silly. It’s too early to tell. Two of the wins were against a bad team. Ok. But every game was competitive and that is what impresses me the most.
Who would have thought a few weeks ago that we would only let one opponent get to 100 its in the first 6 games?
Casey
We finally have a coach who has a solid system focused on Defence!!!!!
He is also young and driven, with a high Bball IQ and an excellent relationship with the players. Wow, best move BC has ever made could be hiring Casey. I know it’s early, but so far Casey has far exceeded my expectations.
O'Neil vs Casey
Casey seems just as intense has Kevin was, but he has much better control of his emotions.
Kevin is much better suited to the college game. Casey’s approach is more effective at the NBA level.
by defensive rap on Jan 6, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
And by approach I mean
Kevin yelled and screamed a lot and put all of his emotion into his approach. His passion was awesome and he wore his heart on his sleeve.
Casey tries just as hard but he does it with a quiet determination and self assuredness that Kevin did not have. He was asked how many wins he was hoping to get over the next stretch of games and his answer was perfect. “We aren’t worried about that right now. We are involved in a process of changing the culture of this team. The wins will take care of themselves.”
by defensive rap on Jan 6, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
The Raptor Pendulum
As a long time suffering Leaf fan (and all other sports franchises named Toronto), it’s always fun to savour those moments of glory. They feel as good, as the droughts feel bad.
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In regards to Raptors, I’m tempered by their success, but not completely surprised. I felt the win predictions were off-base, and too pessimistic. Reasons being:
- Injuries – IMO our extensive amount of players down, had a large effect on a minimally talented team. With a new guy in the training department – apparently a talented guy – I would hope our misfortunes are much less. If not, all bets are off.
- Casey – As much as some say coaching is over-rated, I believe in this case we went from a friendly guy out of his element, to an understated “it’s about culture & attitude” coaching philosophy. A culture where playing time is not just a simple case of developing the young guys, but for developing those who’ll put in the effort.
- Defense – It’s pretty hard to be worse then we were last year.
- Jose – Hamstrings and all, a healthy JC is a quality PG. I still believe our best bet for the future is Jose as the quintessential back-up (and mentor) to a new quarterback. If the new guy falters (or goes down), we have Jose.
- Ed Davis – sophomore kid who’s experiencing a better opponent analysis. Last year there was only College video to watch (and decipher) – minimal at that. This year, there’s past NBA video that’s being reviewed. That being said, he’s a young kid who might take a little longer to understand the picture. Eventually his dollar bills will come to say “In Casey I trust”.
- Demar – As part of the horrid defense, and putrid perimeter shooting, things could only get better for Derozan. Like Bargnani last year, he was in a new role – # 2 man – that takes time to adjust. Plus all that mega-practicing his 3 point shot has paid off.
- Veteran Leadership – can’t say enough about this. Some of these new guys have to rub off on the younger players.
- Andrea – It’s still early in the season, but even I’m impressed. Mostly with his offensive efficiency. As one of his defenders on this site – it’s the underdog thing – I sometimes felt like a Christian in a Roman coliseum. That being said, Bargnani hasn’t elevated himself quite yet (to where I’d like to see him) – consistent for a season – but his play this year, is why I’ve believed he had more to give. If anything, Andrea is Casey’s poster boy for success.
Like any pendulum, Raptors will hit some difficult streaks. But what is different, is the attitude and culture around the team. You pay, you play. That in itself will take the sting out of losing.
.
If I agreed with you, we’d both be wrong.
Almost forgot Amir
.
While AJ’s stats don’t show his play, I have to say that Amir is a big surprise as well. I figured him to plateau this year, maybe even a slight improvement. I felt he was one of our better players last year – so would be happy with the same energy and results.
Suffice to say, he’s doing great. Once he gets accustomed to a bulkier presence, he should get a better handle on the ball, and his numbers will come around. Our points in the paint (for opponents) have us ranked very well – and Johnson is a reason why that is so.
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If I agreed with you, we’d both be wrong.
by RapthoseLeafs on Jan 5, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
", Andrea is Casey’s poster boy for success."
If Andrea keeps up this production (specifically the offensive efficiently) and continues to at least look like he’s trying on D, Casey might deserve to get into the hall of fame. Especially after what we’ve seen for the past 5 years.
by MAS11 on Jan 5, 2012 8:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
To be honest
we haven’t looked all that good in the 3 wins that we have. Both Cleveland games were not things of beauty and you saw the Knick game, right. But last year we lost those games. I don’t consider the schedule to be a factor, because it is what it is. Should all balance out.
1- Casey, no brainer.Using a very small sample(6 games) – this team has done a 180 from last season. As Franchise stated, Triano and Mitchell were as green as you could get and both were given sufficient time. And could not get it done.
I don’t know how the rest of season progresses, but I expect the same effort every night. As stated from the interviews, to the assistants, just a completely different culture with, for the most part, the same core.
2- I have to put Bargnani’s play here, for reasons already stated. Rejoice – and hope it continues and possible continues to improve.
3- if Andrea’s play not been so remarkable then the health of Jose would be # 2. And if he goes down, we are in huge trouble.
Them are the big 3 – all else is secondary. One not mentionned is the stench of Chris Bosh finally being removed. Last year his shadow loomed……….
The Order of Things
1. Jose. I think he is criminally undervalued. How many other PGs have we tried since Jose arrived? 10? Yet he continues to efficiently run the offense while rarely turning over the ball. With him healthy the team always has a shot. My favourite Raptor ever.
2. Casey. The influence is visible from the top to the bottom of the roster.
3. Schedule. It’s cream puff time and these are games even a mediocre team should win.
4. Bargnani. In a word, he’s more efficient – at both ends of the floor. I suspect that this has to do with coaching more than Bargs finally ‘getting it’, but I honestly don’t care. More please.
by CamHilton on Jan 5, 2012 5:48 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Raps Record to Date
I think the raps .500 record is due to the schedule thus far, it’s not like we played the heavyweights in the league or anything… and with the next stretch of games coming up, we may have one of the best records in the league within a couple of weeks… does that make the raps one of the best teams in the league? Obviously not
However, the raps defence is exponentially better and everybody seems to be buying in to coach casey’s defensive philosophy (bargs included)… Can’t believe i’m saying this, but bargnani looks like a borderline all star at this point… he may not be a rebounding machine but at least he’s trying on D and been very efficient on O… I don’t expect his efficiency to continue for the whole season but we will see.. The biggest thing I’m curious about is whether the raps D is really this good or is it more of a product of the schedule and the lockout (players being out of shape, teams not being in sync on O)
Overall, I think we are a much better team than last year, thanks to casey preaching defence, jose being healthy, and a much more efficient bargnani and derozan… as the season goes on though, with the schedule eventually going to get harder, players become in better shape, and teams become more in sync, I expect the raps record to normalize to what it should be, considering the talent level… around 21 wins sounds about right, which allows us to get a high lottery pick and do some major damage next season
Mars
I hearby nominate ‘Mars’ as Bargs new nickname, for two reasons;
- When he’s on, he’s the Roman God of War, who can kill you in a million different ways.
- When he’s not, he plays like he’s from there.
by CamHilton on Jan 5, 2012 9:53 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Williams and Humprhries Questionable For Tomorrow's Game
Already dealing with center Brook Lopez’s prolonged injury absence, New Jersey (1-6) was without point guard Deron Williams (ribs) and power forward Kris Humphries (sprained left shoulder) during an 89-70 loss at Boston on Wednesday.
The status of Williams and Humphries for Friday is uncertain.
Linas Kleiza: Kleiza taking part in Raptors practice
Raptors head coach Dwane Casey has said Linas Kleiza is making progress on his recovery from microfracture surgery on his knee and is taking part in practice.
It sounds like Kleiza is getting closer to a playing, but there is still no timetable set on when he can return to action. Rasual Butler will continue to start for the Raptors at SF. Jan. 5 – 3:24 pm et
The lockout...
I am really impressed with how Casey has organized these guys in such a short time. I thought the lockout would hold a distinct disadvantage for new coaches and teams trying to fit in a bunch of new guys. The team barely had a training camp and has less practice time but they look more organized on both ends of the floor and seem to have a purpose.
Casey’s defensive philosphy is clearly protect the paint first and run shooters off the three point line, forcing long twos. I would much prefer if a few of our guys didn’t jump out of their shoes at shot fakes but love the effort, if we can stay down and contest in our close outs it may make it even harder for teams to score on us. On offence it is clearly play through your more talented players, Andrea is keeping his head up in the post and on drives and jose is making great reads in all situations. As the team gets more practice time in, gets use to their sets and defensive schemes they should have a higher learning curve than most teams.
I know that our wins are only against weaker teams (two being the Cavs) but we had a chance to beat Dallas (who despite record is still a good team) and the Magic (top 4 in the east for years and NBA finals three years ago), and the Pacers needed some huge shots down the stretch to beat us (Granger a 3 at the end of shot clock, and west a huge fade away at the shot clock). If one of two of those games went a little different we are 4-2 or 5-1. I still do not think we are a playoff team because of our lack of depth, if Jose, DD or Bargnani go down for any extended periods there is a substantial drop off in talent. As much as I love what Magloire, JJ, Anthony Carter bring to the table, they can’t play extended minutes consistently. Ed Davis isn’t doing much against back-ups right now, I don’t want to think what starter PFs in the NBA would do to him. Right now we are on a high and hopefully it does continue but I loev the growth. When we get some more talent in, with Casey running the helm I feel very optimistic.
From Doug Smith's blog...
" A somewhat interesting scene unfolded at the end of Raptors practice yesterday as we stood around waiting to talk to people.
All the players had gone but one and there was DeMar DeRozan with three assistant coaches and a couple of other staffers working first on his low post game and then on making hard cuts through the lane to take passes and finish at the rim.
It’s precisely the kind of addition to his game that DeRozan needs; I do think he could be an effective post-up guy and since his ball-handling skills don’t yet allow him to beat his man off the dribble attacking the basket, getting him to go hard and get the ball rather than go hard with it will make him a more effective inside scorer.
And a day after he took and made all those three-pointers, was really nice to see him putting a lot of extra time in on an equally important facet of his game that needs to developed."
"the Truth"
by Mikthaniel on Jan 6, 2012 10:13 AM EST via Android app reply actions
This warmed my heart and brought a tear to my eye.
DeRozan is finding a home in the “I like this guy” space in my heart. LOL
DeRozan appears to be taking a bit of a leap this season. Last year, he was putting up the worst 3-point percentage in league history (for a guy with more than 50 attempts) while serving as a starter for one of the worst defences in NBA history. I was not a fan.
If he can throw in improved ball handling and a post-up game to go with the 3-point shooting, I’m sold.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Jan 6, 2012 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
The ball-handling may take some time, but I could see it being his “3 point shooting” of next off-season.
In the meantime, a couple of post-ups could really help with players like Jose, Bargs and Amir spreading the floor (throw in Kleiza when he gets back).
by dhackett1565 on Jan 6, 2012 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
When DeMar was interviewed at Jonas' first presser after the draft...
He said he was dedicating his off season to developing his three point shot and to playing better defence…
I particularly remember people scoffing at this and even “how do you practice defence in an empty gym” and that his jumper was only looked improved because “he was playing no talent players who don’t play defence” in the off season…
I am glad to have my faith confirmed…
I look forward to his next step in his self-betterment schedule…
Seems to me as hard as Amir works in the weight room, DeMar works at whatever he thinks is his biggest weakness…
Hard to not like their determination…
"the Truth"
Yes, that HAS to be next on his list
Now, if he puts it together and develops some handles to consistantly beat his man off the bounce AND can at least play passable defense… We’ve got our self a real asset!
+1
Talkinf fantasy bball on twitter http://twitter.com/FinalsFantasy#
by JumpShootersRUS on Jan 6, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
Whoah, big jump down, the +1 was in response to DStance talking about being sold on DeMar if he continues to add to his already improving game.
Talkinf fantasy bball on twitter http://twitter.com/FinalsFantasy#
by JumpShootersRUS on Jan 6, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
Doug Smith
Now that things are going a bit better his posts are easier to take but it is so early. When things are good, Smith writes about it and it is fine to read. When things are bad, Smith writes about good things that do not exist and it is hard to read.
by defensive rap on Jan 6, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
I can’t stand the Toronto Star. They’ve crossed the line from objective journalism to simply acting like PR for MLSE.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Jan 6, 2012 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
Bargnani : Offensive Efficiency is the Key
It is great to see Bargnani trying harder on defence this season and long may it continue. I think that, along with effort, the biggest reason for Bargnani’s improvement defensively is that Casey has simplified his role. As the supposed centre the last couple of year, Bargnani has clearly been confused about what to do out there. Along with laziness(or whatever else you want to call it), he has been indecisive and slow to react. On defence you want to be fast and instinctive. By simplifying Bargnani’s role on defense, Casey is moving him in that direction.
All that said, Bargnani’s more important improvement this year has been on the offensive side of things. Players like Dirk, Steve Nash, Amare, these guys are average at best on defence. However, they are dynamite offensively because they are so efficient. This year, Bargnani’s offensive game looks much more disciplined and decisive. He is not floating silly long 2s as often or driving without an idea how to finish. Those are huge improvements in shot selections and decision making which are reflected in his way better efficiency numbers.
Who knows if these things are sustainable, but in the long run it is going to be offensive efficiency that is the key to Bargnani’s prolonged usefulness. Defensively he might eventually become average, but offensively he can be a difference-maker if he stays efficient. Lastly, I love the fact that Bargnani scored 31 points in only 34 minutes against the Cavs. I would be very happy to see Casey keep his minutes in the 30-35 per game range. That should keep him fresh and effective as the year goes along.
I would be very happy to see Casey keep his minutes in the 30-35 per game range. That should keep him fresh and effective as the year goes along.
I think so long as the Raps use him when he is on the floor things will go well. So often he goes 3 or 4 minutes straight without touching the ball – which means he is on the floor, expending energy, without actually making a positive contribution. I think he should be option 1, 2, and 3 when he is on the floor, to maximize his effectiveness.
And there should never come a time, in this entire season (injuries excepted) where Bargnani and Calderon are both on the bench before the game has been decided. It should be easy to rotate them out to keep the offense humming for 48 minutes. If Bargnani plays 34 minutes per game and Jose plays 30, that leaves 14 of Jose playing with a defensive unit, 18 of Bargnani playing with a lesser PG, and 16 of peak production with both on the floor (say, 6 minutes to end the game and the rest spread out between the start and end of each half).
I’d take issue with calling Bargnani “option 1, 2 and 3 when he is on the floor…” when you have a guy like DeRozan who is clearly emerging as a potential 20+ ppg scorer (and working to expand his game beyond the arc and in the post). Calderon is also shooting the ball at a high level right now.
I’d say DeRozan is at least your number two option right now. Maybe he falls to three when Valanciunas arrives.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Jan 6, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, a little hyperbole on my part, but at least early in the game where Bargnani is hitting everything he looks at, why not go to him every possession? When he sits, let Jose and Demar go nuts and carry the team. It just seems to me that if you are going to have him on the floor (which the team clearly needs a lot of in order to win) why not mitigate his defensive inadequacies (he’s much better, but he’s still a liability) with using his offensive ability to its utmost. If he’s missing shots, of course you go away from him. But I am getting sick of watching him wear himself out on the defensive end just to get by, and then go down to the other end and watch Barbosa jack a freaking contested jumper, when Bargnani’s hit his first 4 shots and is drawing a foul every time he drives.
I would add Derozan in that group of two. I can live with them on the bench if Derozan, Ed Davis and Amir are on the floor. But the key issue is balance! We cannot have time when we have a line up of Anthony Carter, James Johnson, Barbosa, Davis and Magloire out there. Its almost as terrifying as watching Chucky before bed.
Strength of schedule
If the Raptors had started the year with 2 games each against the Bulls, Heat and Thunder we would not be talking about a 3-3 club right now. Maybe 1-5 if they were lucky.
Clearly, strength of schedule is the biggest factor in the current record. However, the team has clearly improved their effort as any casual fan can tell by watching them. Also, their improved play is showing up in the boxscores as highlighted by some of the stats AF included in this article.
I’d be surprised to see the Raptors finish the year with over 30 wins, but it would be great if they came close and then got a little luck in the lottery. 25+ wins and a top 3 pick, that would be my best case scenario for the season.
Let me point out something
If the Raptors had started the year with 2 games each against the Bulls, Heat and Thunder we would not be talking about a 3-3 club right now. Maybe 1-5 if they were lucky.
Against those 3 teams, most of the league would be 1-5 if they were lucky so this isn’t something that’s specific to the Raptors.
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