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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Was Ed Davis the Wrong Pick for the Raps?

The Toronto Raptors finished 13th in the 2009-10 season, and picked 13th in the 2010 draft. However a highly touted Tar Heel star's value plummeted when he could have been a top 5 pick in the '09 draft if he didn't return for another season in North Carolina after his freshman year, and fell on Colangelo's lap. It was pretty widely accepted as one of the sleep picks of that draft year, but was it?

At the time the Raptors had worked out and targeted really only 5 other players, Cole Aldrich, Intercontinental Champion Pat Patterson, HBO's favourite show Larry Sanders, Kentucky PG Eric Bledsoe and the other guard from Texas Avery Bradley.

Pat Patterson was a HQ fav, but the general consensus wanted another guard with Bledsoe or Bradley. Aldrich everyone knew was going to be a long term project that no one seemed overly interested in, and Larry was and is headcase Larry.

So lets take a look at the numbers:

Year Team GP GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG

Ed Davis

2010–11 Toronto 65 17 24.6 . 576 .000 . 555 7.1 .6 .6 1.0 7.7

Cole Aldrich

2010-11 Tulsa 66ers 21 21 29.3 .544 .000 . 804 8.6 1.3 .5 2.6 10.3

2010–11 Oklahoma City 18 0 7.9 .533 .000 . 500 1.9 .2 .3 . 4 1.0

Pattrick Patterson

2010–11 Houston 52 6 16.7 .558 .000 .714 3.8 0.8 .3 .7 6.3

LarrySanders

2010–11 Milwaukee 60 12 14.5 .433 .000 .560 3.0 .3 .4 1.2 4.3

Eric Bledsoe

2010–11 L.A. Clippers 81 25 22.7 .424 .276 .744 2.8 3.6 1.1 .3 6.7

Avery Bradley

2010–11 Boston 31 0 5.2 .343 .000 .500 .5 .4 .3 .0 1.7

Aldrich obviously is the biggest disappointment of the group, but most generally thought of as one of the higher risks with minimal upside. And aside from Bledsoe, the others have all just been minor bench role players for their team. 2010 marked another thin draft year and it would have been interesting to have Bledsoe (our consensus pick at the time) come in off the bench behind Calderon, I haven’t seen enough of Bledsoe in the NBA to really assure me that Davis wasn’t the right pick.

Davis may never become a major component of any competitive team, however of the 2nd teir of mid picks he may still outshine the other 5 on this list.

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and a word of note if anyone was wondering.. nobody picked after Solomon Alabi has made much (or any really) of a contribution in the NBA either.

by Ustation on Jan 10, 2012 3:19 PM EST reply actions  

That draft pretty much sucked.

There was anything that Raptors could have done with the 13th pick that would change our situation as an organization currently.

Either Ed will realize his upside with us and make our team better or he can be a valuable trading chip. If he doesn’t show some effort and enthusiasm this season I would be in favour of him being used to move us up in this year’s draft. He is from Washington DC, maybe our first round pick plus Ed could net us the Wizard’s first pick (providing they do not win the lottery).

Formerly known as timboslice85

by Rebrand_the_Raps on Jan 10, 2012 6:16 PM EST reply actions  

As stated in my post below, the injuries (both college and pro) and lack of full training camps have set him back. I think we need a full season of more consistent play, AND a better ability to compete physically in the post before he’s tradeable for anything approximating significant value.

by Yardly on Jan 12, 2012 11:08 PM EST up reply actions  

yup. next (healthy) season should be the measuring stick, not what we’ve seen thus far.

by Justin Azevedo on Jan 13, 2012 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Ed's in his

2nd year (the sophmore slump is not rare in players), without a single real training camp yet, won’t have a full season until next year, and is currently getting 18 min a night. He has also been stuck on a 2nd unit with Bayless/Barbossa/Carter doing the ball handling.

He needs a new coach, guaranteed starter position and a guaranteed 36 min a night for 4 more years before we can really judge him…..

all jokes aside he does need time.

by Not so Friendly Stranger on Jan 10, 2012 6:42 PM EST reply actions  

Ed

Last year got our hopes up, especially near the end when he seemed to be making good progress. It is too bad this year has not started that well, but there is still lots of time for him to get his act together. Bargnani’s absence will give him a chance to state his case for more playing time.

by DW19 on Jan 12, 2012 4:58 PM EST reply actions  

re: Davis and Time

As much as we would like to skip to the middle of the story, we’re going to have to let his development play out.
I am grateful that we have some depth around Ed so we don’t need to roll him out there for more minutes then his frame can handle. Even better, Dwayne has the ability to let his play and effort dictate his minutes.

In a perfect world (ie he wasn’t injured in college and had full training camps at the start of both seasons) we would have more of a body of work, and thus could HOPEFULLY use that to plan the bigman rotation for the year that Jonas V comes over. Getting the Big Lithuanian acclimatized to NBA basketball, will be enough of a chore. Having a second bigman who’s nightly efforts are a mystery would gum up the works and make Casey’s job more challenging then it already will be.

by Yardly on Jan 12, 2012 10:55 PM EST up reply actions  

With Bargnani Out

Ed and Linas will probably share the PF slot.

Ed’s play and numbers should pick up while Bargnani is out.

I still like his upside on offense. I can see him someday with some team putting up Bosh like T-Dot numbers in scoring and rebounding. I am just not sure it will be with the Raptors when it happens

His defense is a work in progress as is is body for sure. However, he has shown good instinct around the basket and with blocking shots so there is hope there to.

I think if he is in the right situation with the right team where he is happy being with that team, and it could be T-Dot, I can see him becoming an all-star if that team is at least decent.

by Buddahfan on Jan 12, 2012 6:07 PM EST reply actions  

DD, Ed, JV +1

We could have four young potential stars next year.

Plus three vets who really want to be here and play well*
Jose, Amir and Andrea

*only if Andrea keeps playing the way he has this year, not like the previous years

That is a great recipe for success. We need those four young kids to work out by developing them or getting solid players in return and trading them. Then Casey can start to mould the team into a cohesive group and we can say things like; “The Raptors are like the Thunder were……” and we can go from there, and get our first ring.

by defensive rap on Jan 12, 2012 10:12 PM EST reply actions  

Ed Davis's future

I see Ed as Amir Johnson with better hops. Ed hasn’t shown any ability, or even interest, in creating his own shot when he gets the ball at the foul line. Chris Bosh developed a technically sound pull-up jumper in his third year, which is when he became a player. Until Ed acquires that skill, or something else that makes him a threat on the offensive end, he’ll be a rotation player and nothing more. He’ll get some d-boards and putback buckets, block a few shots – an average NBA power forward, the kind of guy who will be traded 5 times in his career. Over to you, Ed. Find some offense.

by Newmarket Brian on Jan 13, 2012 12:40 AM EST reply actions  

Bosh

had a jumper coming into the NBA.

Ed came into the NBA with shot blocking and rebounding.

by Not so Friendly Stranger on Jan 13, 2012 7:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Bosh and Ed

They are not the same player at all. Bosh had a jumper as a rookie. Ed has never even attempted a shot like Bosh used to take regularly.

Ed can become more of shot blocker and strong power forward whereas Bosh is a highly skilled scorer, a bit thin and a bit soft on D. Ed will never be like Bosh. Different skill sets.

by defensive rap on Jan 13, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I Think Ed Can Develop An Effective Mid-Range Game

If he can’t his career will never amount to much unless he can add about 30 pounds of muscle. It is possible he could do that. Amir has added about 30 pounds of muscle over the last two seasons and he is two years older than Ed.

So if Ed starts bulking up now by the time he gets to Amir’s age he could be as big and strong as Amir is now. LOL

However, I have seen enough of Ed’s shooting touch (he has soft shot) and footwork (above average) which leads me to think his career path would be better served by working on developing a jumper first and adding weight and muscle second.

by Buddahfan on Jan 13, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Trade...

Realisticaly if we can move Ed later in the year for a first round pick in this years draft I would be all for it. As the wing position is a complete wreck and DD hasn’t proven to be an answer but more questions. If we could add Barnes and another wing I would be all for it. I would love to see Austin Rivers in Toronto, as he could play the combo guard.

This is obviously hypothetical but something that needs to be considered beacuse with Andrea playing like he is, JV being a true C (and hopefully a quality big) and Amir’s ability to play both 4/5. Where are the minutes going to be for Ed? Ed can be used to get a young piece to fill another void. I still think Davis can be a quality big man in the NBA and has potential but we can use that to net us a good draft pick. It just depends on what is a bigger need, a 4th big man or a quality wing. Also if we end up with a top 10 pick we could possibly use Davis +our pick to move into the top 3 and net Barnes.

We can’t move him during the year but hopefully he develops and has some interest so if we need to move him we can.

by Shalax23 on Jan 15, 2012 10:27 PM EST reply actions  

Im not sold on harrison barnes

I need to see more from him in order to be a player I want the raptors to take. I really like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist from Kentucky. He plays hard defense and can score on the other end. Perry Jones is looking a lot better lately as well. March Madness is where we will see players stock rise and fall and I think you will see Kidd-Gilchrists rise the most.

by Traptors on Jan 18, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions  

maybe

but historically people have put too much emphasis on the results of March madness and it is not always a good indicator of NBA success.

I like Kidd-Gilchirist and Barnes. If they are both available when we pick then I will trust our scouts. I have heard a couple of positive things about Kidd-G as well and that Barnes is lapsing but it’s hard to trust what you hear in cyberspace. Whoever we draft, let’s hope they turn out to be a great NBA player. Enough of the Joey Graham and Aroujo picks. Let’s get someone better than, for example, Bosh and hope JV is better as well. Enough of mediocrity. Let’s be great. But not this year, next. We need the pick and we need it to pan out.

by defensive rap on Jan 18, 2012 1:17 PM EST reply actions  

re draft class

From what pundits say, (and the amount of players that passed on entering the 2011 draft) the 2012 draft class is going to be a strong one. The 2005 draft class was reputed to be weak, and I think the results of that draft class towards the end of the lottery / mid first round bear that out. Aroujo was a mistake to be sure, and less forgivable then the Joey Graham gamble. At the very least, Joey Graham had the physique and physical game to tempt scouts into projecting him as a power SF. In Araujo’s case, he was physically overmatched in any dimension aside from size and strength.

We’re going to get something good, I think it will come down to our particular mix of preferences with this pick. Is there a prototype Casey player, a type that is rare enough that drafting them is the best way to acquire them? Are we going to bet on the player with the highest potential, regardless of how far they are from achieving it (DeRozan)? Do we look for a player that plays a premium position, and embodies some intangibles that will help him maximize how much of his potential he realizes(ie work ethic). Is a players behavioural issues (DeMarcus Cousins) or leadership qualities (Shane Battier) going to play a major part in tiebreaking?

The lack of significant track records, has turned the draft into more of a speculative science then it already was with players staying till they were upperclassman. Each team’s method of arriving at “Best Player Available” is different, and in a deep draft, it should make things all the more exciting.

by Yardly on Jan 18, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree with you on that point

March Madness is big for a few reasons. First off it shows how players play in big situations. It shows how consistent they are as they are playing every day in a packed house against good competition. And finally it shows who strives under pressure and who hides when it gets to the big moments. Look at carmello anthony when syracuse won the title he thrived under pressure. Look for Gilchrist to have a big tournament on both the defensive and offensive side.

by Traptors on Jan 18, 2012 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

from what I understand

scouts use march madness to ‘prove’ what they already believe.

So if they think a player is very talented… said player showing that off during march madness helps confirm that.

If they think a player is very talented but don’t show it off during march madness their stock drops

If a player goes off during march madness scouts use that as an indication they may need to take a second look.

by Not so Friendly Stranger on Jan 18, 2012 7:39 PM EST up reply actions  

There’s was an espn piece about how most GMs hope their “pick” does miserably at March Madness so their stock price falls.

I think there’s another Behind the Draft where BC says pretty much the same thing.

by Ustation on Jan 18, 2012 11:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Christian Laetner

Perfect example of how the draft can overemphasize a players value. Too old for you, try Kemba Walker from last year’s draft. Some people in Toronto were upset we didn’t draft him. I was relieved we got JV, who never played in the NCAAs.

The problem with judging Kidd-G on his tournament results is that he is on a semi pro team playing against inferior opponents. He should win. And his team-mates are hugely talented and the bench is very deep. I like him though and he is at the top of my current wish list right now.

by defensive rap on Jan 18, 2012 5:55 PM EST reply actions  

Good Points

I see it is as a bit of both

To me the NCAA does show how competitive a player can be when the lights go on in pressure situations. Anyone can get lucky with one shot that gets keep being replayed year after year during the NCAA tournament. You have to look at how they did for the entire tournament.

Want you want to see is how the players do in the tournament vs how they did during the season. Of course this is not the be all, end all. There is a lot more to drafting than just how they do on a relative basis.

However, if you have a kid who has shown that he can step up and make big plays consistently even when the big bright lights aren’t on him and then do it when they are then you have a pretty good confirmation that the player will be a competitor. Of course that is just one aspect to making a good player.

To me March Madness is just another tool in the scouts tool box when it comes to weeding out the best possible NBA players.

by Buddahfan on Jan 18, 2012 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree big time

He’s a freshman at College and I’ve heard many people saying he is the leader of that team both verbally and the way he plays on the court. You never see that from a freshman. And to say hes playing against weaker talent doesnt make sense. He’s playing at a high level against kids older than him and still striving. College basketball is not weaker opponents its why you see upsets all the time. Try telling North Carolina that there last game was against a weaker opponent.

by Traptors on Jan 19, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Weaker opponents

Kentucky has a much better roster than almost any team in the nation. The talent level is exceptional. They could easily win without Kidd-G. Look at their roster, it’s awesome.

I love him so far, but I don’t think if he wins an NCAA title, on that roster, it means he wil be a great player in the NBA. His body of work over the course of the season tells us a lot more about his future success in the NBA then the tournament results will. Remember, it’s one and done and with kids this age any thing can happen.

by defensive rap on Jan 19, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

another tool?

I agree with that but often times the NCAA tourney yields excitement over players that is unjustified. Similar to the NBA playoff effect that sometimes happens.

Example, Hedo and Orlando. The media and press give too much value to these games and we should focus on the bigger picture.

by defensive rap on Jan 18, 2012 6:31 PM EST reply actions  

One of the greatest Mach Madness players ever to then go on to have an aweful NBA career was Pervis Ellison. Drafted #1 overall in 89 turned out to be a bust.

by Ustation on Jan 18, 2012 11:35 PM EST reply actions  

Xavier McDaniels. Ok pro, but amazing run at Wic state in the 80s.

Len Bias, but it was really the drugs that did him in.

Khalid El-Amin. Big fat short kid from UConn who was like Oliver Miller, had several amazing tourneys. I kept wishing he’d make it in the NBA and stick. Just to see another fat guy with Miller. I guess fat guy days in the NBA doesn’t really exist anymore.

Jimmer Ferdette, the JJ Reddick of the last few years. I think he’ll be out of the A in a few short years.

Juan Dixon. Those years in Maryland with those runs made me think we was going to be elite!

Rex Chapman. Jumps like a brother, shoots like your mother

OMG..speaking of shooting like your mother. Adam Morrison.

Gerry Macnamara had the freaking best 4 – 6 weeks of his life and maybe anyone else’s life at the right time for the Orange to lead them to a championship. Is he even in the D league?

by Ustation on Jan 18, 2012 11:49 PM EST up reply actions  

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