NBA Free Agency 2011 - Top Power Forward Options for the Toronto Raptors
Do the Toronto Raptors need more help at the 4? The HQ doesn't think so, but they do have a few players on their wish list that could be solid options in back-up roles...
Let's pretend the lock-out isn't going on.
Let's pretend in fact that Toronto was currently knee-deep in the free agency market, looking for ways to improve upon a 22 win season.
Obviously there are lots of holes in the roster, and as we discussed recently, some spots needing more help than others.
Last week we looked at the top center options for Toronto in free-agency, perhaps the real abyss in terms of starting positions for this club, and the consensus was that after the Chandler's and the Nene's, there wasn't a lot that warranted top dollar.
However that doesn't change the fact that Colangelo will have to dip into the free agent pool if he can't swing some sort of trade, as the impending move of Andrea Bargnani back to the 4 leaves the likes of Solomon Alabi manning the 5.
How certain though is the move of Bargs back to power forward?
It sounds pretty certain if you go off of new coach Dwane Casey's comments of late.
From a Sports Illustrated Q & A recently with newly minted Raptors' coach Dwane Casey:
Casey: Well, he's (Andrea's) not going to be our starting center, really [because he's more of a power forward]. He's in a similar situation with Dirk Nowitzki at this point in his career. I'd have to check their numbers, but I'd venture to say at this point in his career, he's probably somewhere in the same area where Dirk was, where both have had to live down the reputation of being soft. And by the way, Dirk has never been anywhere near soft. Don't ever use that word with him.
SI.com: I won't! Believe me!
Casey: Because he's one of the toughest, hardest-working guys in the league. I don't know Andrea. All I know is what I've read and seen. I am excited to get to know him. He's going to get better defensively, and he's a great offensive player. But we have to work with him, coach him up and put him in the right situations so he is not exposed as much. I think Amir Johnson can be an above-average defender in the same position, and that we can put someone like Amir in a system so that Andrea is not exposed as much.
Look, our challenge is to find a five-man unit that is above-average defensively. Who that five will be, I just don't know at this point. But when you win 22 games, you've got to change things. You can't come back with the status quo.
So if Andrea isn't playing the 5 as a starter, he's got to start at the 4 right?
Or could Casey begin the season by bringing him off the bench?
I see the former being more realistic, but hopefully his last line regarding "not coming back with status quo" means that there's no guarantee Andrea is the team's starting PF for good.
(And as a sidebar, considering his supposed use of advanced stats, something SI touches on in the two previous questions, it's a bit concerning to hear Casey say that Andrea is a great offensive player. Basic stats might tell you that simply because he averaged over 20 points per game last year, but as we all know, he did that in a manner that one would hardly classify as "efficient," let alone "great.")
The problem is, moving Andrea to the 4 likely comes at the expense of two of the roster's most productive players, Ed Davis and Amir Johnson. Somehow Casey is going to have to figure out a way for this rotation to work as visions of 42 minutes of Bargs versus 20 to 25 minutes of Ed and Amir is enough to make me scream already.
And it's July.
So here's a question.
Could we see Colangelo and co. attempt to move one of the aforementioned three to get address other needs?
That's possible, but what's more likely I'd say is BC making a play for a player or two who can back-up a few different positions on the court, especially if the likes of Dorsey, Ajiinca and Evans are let go.
With that in mind, we breeze through our tier system for this positional breakdown, keeping in mind some potential low-cost, yet possibly quite valuable free agent options.
The "I'll Hug Colangelo" Tier:
1) No one.
Looking through this year's PF free-agent list, there's no one that screams "sign me and I'll take your club to the next level!"
I love David West, but considering his style of play, age, and the recent injury he'll be trying to recoup from, he's a big risk.
And as discussed, the club's got enough 4's vying for a major minutes, so without a uber-stud option out there, let's go to the next tier.
The "Nice Work if you Can Get It" Tier:
1) No one.
Sensing a pattern here?
This tier offers the same options to me as above; there's just no one I'd be willing to go even a little over the top on salary-wise for.
In our Center discussion, we had guys like Marc Gasol and DeAndre Jordan in this tier; players that were likely out of the question, but that made sense for Toronto perhaps to take a run at.
At the 4, no such luck.
The "Fine, I Guess That Works" Tier:
1) No one.
Considering I'm perfectly content with the two players who should be getting the bulk of the minutes at the 4, Ed and Amir, and it seems like Andrea will be getting burn here as well, this tier I'd say is all wrapped up too.
No need for stand-ins, Toronto has some very intriguing options at the 4, including guys like James Johnson who can play that spot in smaller line-ups.
Let's then turn to the final tier, where the real options present themselves.
The "These Guys are Kind of Interesting" Tier:
1) Chuck Hayes - Is he a 4? A 5? Does it matter? We put him on our "center" list, but I'm going to include him again here. Hayes is the type I'd be thrilled to see Toronto sign as he gives 110% every night, would replace a good chunk of the rebounding and effort lost if/when Evans goes, and probably could be had for a very reasonable price.
2) Luc Mbah a Moute - To me, if Colangelo is going to take a shot at any free agent 4's, it's guys like Hayes and Prince Luc that he should be targeting. These are guys who don't need the ball in their hands to be effective, should be quite cost efficient, and can fill in at more than one spot on the floor. Considering how weak Toronto's starters will likely be, the bench needs to be a strength.
Mbah a Moute is one of the best defenders in the free agent class, can even play some 5 in smaller line-ups, and would give this club a serious dose of grit and tenacity.
3) Dante Cunningham - While not quite on par with the first two options, Cunningham is another player who fits the mould of what Toronto is hopefully trying to move towards in terms of defensive upgrades. He's an undersized type but overcomes any physical shortcomings thanks to heart and hustle, and you could do a lot worse in spot minutes off the pine.
4) Josh McRoberts - I'd be surprised if Indiana lets him go when all is said and done, but an excellent athlete who excels in creating for teammates is certainly not a bad thing to have coming off the pine.
5) Brandan Wright - Would you take a flyer on the former lottery pick if you were Bryan Colangelo? We've seen BC do this before with the likes of Patrick O'Bryant and Ajinca, and Wright, at still only 23, has more upside than the two previous names combined. It remains to be seen if he can ever stay healthy and get his game together, but for likely a cheap price tag, he could very well be worth the risk as an 11th or 12th man.
The "Just Say No" Tier:
Yi Jianlian, Juwan Howard, Brian Scalabrine, Glen Davis.
Um...no...
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Comments
Thanks for still posting stuff Franchise.
Was wondering if you were going to bother doing a PF list. But we have a long summer to fill. ;)
Good article – PF is really not an issue, unless there are some significant trades in the off-season. Say, Bargnani and Amir moved for a C – which opens a hole at PF, where someone coming in would be necessary. But for now, the article is spot on.
Thanks dhackett – got tied up with some stuff on the weekend but articles back in effect this week…
Small forward discussion should be a lot more interesting.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Jul 4, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
One glaring omission
An obvious wise-crack that is going to be made sooner or later:
There is one glaring omission from the “Just Say No Category” → Andrea Bargnani
Ha…never even considered it ;)
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Jul 4, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I would like to see a whole post dedicated to Brian Cardinall v Juwan Howard free agent toss up...
Brandan Wright would be good – if his career isn’t already over. What have we got to lose except cap space?
Luc would be great, but won’t he make everybody slack off on D – and what’s that worth if he isn’t a long term rotation solution?
Wasn’t there some muttering about Julian Wright playing PF ? It intrigues me condiering he could also play some PG too if Jerryd or Calderon got injured during a game.
'....as a child, I dreamt of being a baseball.'
You’ll probably recall that we were big fans of getting Stanley to training camp last year. The Magic waived him after selecting him in the second round, and he missed a good chunk of time in the D League thanks to a staph infection, but sounds like he’s rehabbing and back to work.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
No kidding!!!
Geoff Rahal
Author, RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Jul 4, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
True rebuild?
We have to give Alabi an opportunity. Is he ready? Probably not, but have read a few articles quite complimentary on his progress and his potential. Get his feet wet as a big off the bench. Would be good to have him NBA ready when Valanciunas comes over.
I think, among the logical, you will have agreement that no moves is the best move at the 4. I’d be OK to keep the 3 we have, Amir, Andrea and Ed. All three (sigh – Andrea as well) have the potential to be good players in two or three years.
Alabi’s a real wild card in this process.
He needs more minutes, something you may recall Eric Hughes talking to us about in our end of the season chat, but at some point, the team is going to have to throw him into the fire a bit.
If he could even give the team spot minutes as a rebounder and shot blocker next season it would be huge but at present, I’d be surprised if that happened.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
Confusing Statement By Casey
The problem is, moving Andrea to the 4 likely comes at the expense of two of the roster’s most productive players, Ed Davis and Amir Johnson.
When I read the SI interview of Casey, his statement regarding Bargnani and Amir seemed to me to be confusing. I haven’t heard or read him say anything since to clarify that statement. So to tell the truth I have no idea what he was saying.
By the way Jonas had a another double double today this time vs Serbia
Minutes 34
Points 18
Rebounds 13
Blocks 3
Turnovers 4
FG 6 – 14
FT 6- 7
No three point shot attempts
Only 2 PF in the 34 minutes.
LTU won easily 71 – 54
Team USA defeated team Canada 83 – 54 with the big man Bhullar leading the way for Canada with 15 – 7 in 24 minutes
Found parts of his interview confusing too Buddahfan, and almost wrote a whole post just on that SI piece, as there were indeed some mixed messages.
I’m chalking it up in the end though to “wait till he gets through a training camp before he makes personnel decisions.”
Right now he’s just sort of going off of past scouting reports of playing versus TO etc.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
Valanciunas' Tourney so far:
Croatia 88, Lithuania 75
36 MP, 7/17 FG, 5/6 FT, 13 (5) REB, 5 PF, 2 TO, 5 BS, 19 PTS
Lithuania 117, Korea 64
19 MP, 11/11 FG, 3/3 FT, 17 (5) REB, 1 AST, 2 PF, 2 TO, 1 STL, 2 BS, 25 PTS
Lithuania 111, Canada 68
14 MP, 5/6 FG, 1/1 3FG, 4/6 FT, 9 (1) REB, 1 AST, 5 PF, 1 TO, 4 BS, 15 PTS
Lithuania 71, Serbia 54
34 MP, 6/14 FG, 6/7 FT, 13 (3) REB, 2 PF, 4 TO, 1 STL, 3 BS, 18 PTS
So his average stats so far are:
25.75 MPG, 60.4% FG%, 100% 3FG%, 81.8 FT%, 3.5 OREB, 13 REB, 0.5 AST, 3.5 PF, 2.25 TO, 0.5 STL, 3.5 BS, 19.25 PPG
And per 36 minutes:
10.1/16.8 FG, 6.3/7.7 FT, 4.9 OREB, 18.2 REB, 4.9 PF, 3.1 TO, 4.9 BS, 26.9 PTS
That 4.9 fouls is important, since in FIBA you foul out at 5. Still high, but he seems to be fouling at a rate that would allow him to average 36 minutes. In fact it would allow him to average 44 minutes in the NBA. Of course, his foul rate will likely go up in the NBA, but a good sign none the less.
by dhackett1565 on Jul 4, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I Doubt That He Will Average 36 MPG For The Raptors In His Rookie Season
Boy talk about getting ahead of the game.
I would happy if he can handle 20 – 25 mpg effectively in his NBA rookie season.
IMO way the heck too much is being made at this time about his fouls by Raptors fans and NBA bloggers
Once he actually starts seeing court time in a Raptors uniform if his fouls become a serious minutes limiting problem then it could be something of a concern depending on how important his minutes are.
Besides Amir will always be there to help Jonas by taking away some of Jonas’ fouls. LOL
Raptors should’ve extended a qualifying offer to Dorsey and need to dump Bargnani ASAP. There’s your moves at the PF position.
The idea that they’re seriously contemplating starting Bargnani and handing out the leftover minutes to Davis and Amir is laughable. Someone please tell me that is simply posturing in the media while trying to inflate Andrea’s trade value.
Geoff Rahal
Author, RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Jul 4, 2011 12:36 PM EDT reply actions
Okay. That is simply posturing in the media while trying to inflate Andrea’s trade value.
by dhackett1565 on Jul 4, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Man o man do I hope you're right!
Unfortunately, everything Colangelo has done regarding Bargnani in the 5 years leads me to believe that you’re not.
I mean, that’s what friends do right? They say things that aren’t exactly true to make their friends feel good about themselves.
haha
don’t get him started dhackett
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Jul 4, 2011 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting Raptors Trivia
To my knowledge the Raptors current roster of players under contract does not consist of any players whose last name begins with a letter in the second half of the English alphabet.
If The Raptors Use a 2x1x2 Zone Defense
Amir would be the perfect player to use in the middle of the zone.
Just saying
LOL @: "I’d have to check their numbers, but I’d venture to say at this point in his career, he’s probably somewhere in the same area where Dirk was…"
It will be funny when Casey actually does go an check their numbers and realize that Bargnani isn’t even in the same vicinity as Dirk after his fifth season. Dirk averaged 25 an 10 with 3 assists in year 5 (02-03) and was more efficient.
"Look, our challenge is to find a five-man unit that is above-average defensively."
I assume Casey means above the NBA average defensively and unless Dwight Howard is suiting up for them at centre next year, it will be difficult to be an above average defensive team when Bargnani and Calderon are in your starting 5.
"it’s a bit concerning to hear Casey say that Andrea is a great offensive player."
Franchise, good on you for addressing some of these worrying comments coming from Casey. I’m also happy someone from the HQ found these as troubling as I did, considering how Vicious D commented recently (and strangely) that these comments were no need for concern. Really Vicious, a coach you just commended for using advanced stats is also praising one of the least productive players in the league BASED ON ADVANCED STATS and this doesn’t raise an eyebrow?
Now, some have argued that these are "smokescreen" comments intended to maintain Bargnani’s trade value etc. However, many of these comments are unsolicited in that the questioner was not even asking about Bargnani.
"…as visions of 42 minutes of Bargs versus 20 to 25 minutes of Ed and Amir is enough to make me scream already."
Here, here. Wasting the obvious talents and production value of Ed/Amir simply to keep force feeding Bargnani to the fan base would be borderline criminal.
Harrison Barnes 2012. Woot!
Anyway, I personally don’t read much into Casey’s comments on Bargnani. I’d bet he knows next to nothing about him, and hasn’t bothered to look into it too much. He’s got all summer to be doing research on his own players, and probably longer. For now, and especially for his interviews, he probably just got BC to give him the two or three point pitch to throw out there if he gets asked about him.
by dhackett1565 on Jul 4, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
The way I see it, these comments mean one of two things:
1. Casey truly hasn’t looked at any data and is going based on limited knowledge and intuitive first impressions. Firstly, I find this hard to believe. Casey, by all reports, was a stalwart "defensive coordinator" for Dallas. It would have been his job to prepare his team for players like Bargnani. He would have developed packages on his weakness etc. especially considering his ridiculous usage. I mean, we as fans have a pretty good idea of who the "good" and "bad" players are on all 30 NBA teams, I would expect Casey to at least have that level of understanding of the Raptor’s roster.
2. Casey has looked at the numbers . If this is the case, I’m even more concerned for two reasons. The first option, he would have to have absolutely NO understanding of basketball related statistics. At all. Second option, he understands the numbers but has already settled into the lap dog, yes man, empty suit, "don’t say anything bad about Bargnani" role BC prefers from his coaches.
As you can see each option is reason for concern.
1. You are assuming he designed a strategy for each team they faced. As defensive coordinator, he would be in charge of designing the defensive ideals the team would cling to, and the specific types of defenses to use – for example, who to bring on a double, how to play zone, etc. Scouting individual players on opposing teams may have fallen to him sometimes, but likely not every game. I know with both Triano and Mitchell the Raps used a rotation of their coaches to supply the scouting report on the opposition (I think a rotation between 3 or 4 coaches). With the Raps only playing Dallas twice the entire season, it is not unreasonable to think that he would only have a passing knowledge of Bargnani.
2. Of course, we all hope this is not the case.
Oh, and to your smokescreen comments – smokescreens are often unsolicited. If a team (say, the Raptors) wants to trade their superstar (say, with a chuckle, Bargnani), not mentioning him in discussions of how they are planning for the team to work is a dead giveaway. The charade must be carried on. However, you could be right, and the team is dedicated to trying to get Bargnani to be useful – in that case I wish them the best of luck, as if they are successful, it would open up several ways to improve the club, which is of course the whole point.
All fair points dhackett. Although, I find it hard to swallow that Casey doesn’t have a good understanding of a player like Bargnani as he would likely have discussed the team’s "assets" and strategies to employ said assets at length throughout the interview process. So while I’m hopeful that you are right and that a smokescreen is being deployed, I would bet my money that Casey got the job by selling Colangelo that he could be the guy to hide Bargnani’s deficiencies through his defensive strategies. Appearances are they’re "all in" on making the "Bargnani is now a PF and therefore not as responsible for defense and rebounding" strategy going forward. While you’re right it would be great if it worked, I’m cynical as nothing has worked to this point and if it doesn’t work (which is the likely outcome) we’re just wasting another year with Bargnani and retarding Ed Davis and Amir Johnson’s (heck even Alabi’s) development in the process. However, it may work out for our 2012 draft pick! Hmmm… Now I’m conflicted.
I have been assuming that in this “Bargnani is a PF” meme that the corollary is that “Amir/Edi is a centre”. Basically, the same players will be deployed, but they will be assigned different tasks on the court. Personally, I think that is a waste of time, but anyway.
Regarding Casey, I think dhackett’s suppositions are plausible. Additionally, I can imagine that having just gone through a grueling playoff run, followed by interviewing with various teams regarding head coaching roles, I think it is likely that Casey has not spent a ton of time reviewing Bargnani or any other Raptors yet. He probably accepted Colangelo’s Coles Notes version of things for now, but we will see if his opinion changes once he has had a vacation and come back to really look at the numbers and study the film. Lastly, everyone starts a new job full of optimism. Their outlook almost always evolves as they become familiar with the facts on the ground. I wouldn’t attribute Casey’s comments to much other than being new to the team.
Nope
Adonis Thomas in 2012
We will have all of the 2011-12 NCAA season to debate it.
Game on.
Not Usually A Big Fan Of ESPN but Here Is What They Say About Adonis Thomas
Bottom Line:
Overall, he is very talented and a terrific person who makes your program better. His overall skills are very strong and put him in position to get a lot done on the floor, but it’s the intangibles that stick out. Thomas is a coach’s dream who wins not only games but championships while leaving a lasting impression on your program.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/56383/adonis-thomas
Love how sources are absolute garbage to "some people" until that source says something they like, then they are reputable...
Sounds like some “source” in here is garbage if you ask me…
"the Truth"
Honestly I have no idea at this point – picked a name out of a hat. Come December or the new year I will be glad to fully engage in the “game.”
Yes!
12 months of lockout, Valanciunas Euroleague updates and draft 2012 talk. Yippeeee!
If You Want To Pay A Bit
you can watch FIBA live during the summer or the Euro-league play live the rest of the year over the Net.
The Whole Point is Moot
Does anyone think that for one moment Casey would allow Bargnani to become the main defender on an opponents best scoring Big man?
It will all come down to match-ups or zone whichever Casey thinks will work best in a given situation.
It’s funny to see some of the folks who were hating on this pick, now starting to come around. A week ago forums and message boards were filled with “worst pick ever” type talk (except really here incidentally) but now those people are pretty quiet…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
ignorance
most of the hate towards the pick was ignorance. How many of us had a similar initial reaction? Admittedly I did, but see us readers on this site do research after and also look at the bigger picture aka let him develop overseas for a year while we poop the bed for another year and get a solid pick in a stocked draft next year. Everyone is seeing what he can do now though so they are coming around
USA Came From Behind In Overtime to Beat LTU 107-105
JV’s line
MP 38
Points 30
Rebounds 15
Blocks 4
PFS 4 – Fouls he committed
FO 8 – Times he was fouled
FG 11 – 20
FT 8 – 10
http://www.fibalivestats.com/matches/13883/03/72/30/42eA5lg8nikw/
The Kid Has Potential That Is 4Sure
Might take until 2013-14 before he starts to breakout in the NBA but he will only be 21 then.



























