NBA Free Agency 2011 - Top Point Guard Options for the Toronto Raptors
by Adam Francis on Jul 13, 2011 8:01 AM EDT
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In the last in the five part series, the HQ looks at the PG position...
"That Paul Pierce sure can play poker eh?"
Yep, that's what the current NBA off-season has been reduced to.
Gone are the usual discussions that typically occur this time of year such as "who overpaid for whom" and "who got the best grade for their free-agent haul."
No, at this point everyone's just sorta sitting around waiting for some scraps of NBA news.
This includes myself, and for that I apologize.
My girlfriend and I took a quick weekend trip to New York City to take in the sights (including the amazing new Tribe Called Quest Documentary - a must-see for all hip-hop fiends) that for me, turned into a last-minute jaunt to Seattle, the location from which I'm penning this piece.
If you can call it that.
No, our final installment of a "Raptors' free-agency shopping list" so to say is a lot to do about nothing, as pouring over the free agent point guard options for Toronto it becomes quite clear quite quickly that there just ain't much there.
So for this last post I think I'll abandon our "tiered" system. After all, anyone who's hugging Colangelo about getting a player like Aaron Brooks or Rodney Stuckey, arguably the two highest profile PG options in this class, needs help.
And under the "Nice Work if You Can Get It" tier, MAYBE, just maybe you're happy about getting Rodney Stuckey if the price is very cheap.
But that's a big maybe.
The fact of the matter is that Toronto's point guard position in many ways is the position that needs the least assistance (that and/or power forward depending on how you view the metrics), and so if you're going to shell out big bucks for an upgrade at the 1, you better be sure said player is indeed a big jump from what you've got.
And that's not the case when you pour over the names of free agent options at the 1. From Hoopsworld's free agent list:
Aaron Brooks, Phoenix Suns - $2.0 million - Restricted ($3.0 million Qualifying Offer)
Rodney Stuckey, Detroit Pistons - $2.8 million - Restricted ($3.9 million Qualifying Offer)
T.J. Ford, Indiana Pacers - $8.5 million - Unrestricted
Carlos Arroyo, Boston Celtics - $1.2 million - Unrestricted
Ronnie Price, Utah Jazz - $1.3 million - Unrestricted
Patrick Mills, Portland Trail Blazers - $0.9 million - Restricted ($1.1 million Qualifying Offer)
Sasha Vujacic, New Jersey Nets - $5.5 million - Unrestricted
Sebastian Telfair, Minnesota Timberwolves - $2.7 million - Unrestricted
Charlie Bell, Golden State Warriors - $3.9 million - Early Termination Option ($4.1 million)
Willie Green, New Orleans Hornets - $4.0 million - Unrestricted
Mario Chalmers, Miami HEAT - $0.9 million - Restricted ($1.1 million Qualifying Offer)
Jason Williams, Memphis Grizzlies - $1.4 million - Unrestricted
Earl Watson, Utah Jazz - $1.2 million - Unrestricted
Pooh Jeter, Sacramento Kings - $0.5 million - Unrestricted
Jose Barea, Dallas Mavericks - $1.7 million - Unrestricted
Sundiata Gaines, New Jersey Nets - $0.7 million - Unrestricted*
Chris Quinn, San Antonio Spurs - $0.9 million - Unrestricted
Royal Ivey, Oklahoma City Thunder - $1.1 million - Unrestricted
Marcus Banks, New Orleans Hornets - $4.9 million - Unrestricted
Earl Boykins, Milwaukee Bucks - $1.4 million - Unrestricted
Anthony Carter, New York Knicks - $1.4 million - Unrestricted
Acie Law, Golden State Warriors - $0.7 million - Unrestricted
John Lucas, Chicago Bulls - $0.7 million - Unrestricted*
Ben Uzoh, New Jersey Nets - $0.5 million - Unrestricted*
Wow.
That's a lot of D League options for next season.
On top of the lack of realistic upgrades therefore, there's also the issue of playing time and need.
The team has Jose Calderon and Jerryd Bayless forming some sort of platoon, and backing them up in a pinch, the Raps can turn to Leandro Barbosa, or even occasional point-forward James Johnson.
There simply isn't a need for middling talent or band-aid solutions. If the Dinos are going to fix their issues at the 1 it has to be done via trades, not via free agency.
Could Colangelo conceivably bring on one of these above listed players though as bench depth?
Of course.
However outside of someone with a bit of upside or veteran experience, say like a Patrick Mills or Ronnie Price, again, money could be better spent elsewhere.
Price would be my favourite option of this group actually as he could be had for cheap, could fill in for injured players and run the offense...
...and provide the occasional spectacular dunk like this:
Really though, the hope is that Colangelo takes a pass on this position and turns his attention elsewhere.
And Bryan, that means not signing Marcus Banks to another four-year deal ok?
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It’s an interesting discussion. We’re talking about a player who had he had a healthy career, would have been a shoe-in. And in terms of cultural impact alone, his inclusion could certainly be warranted.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Jul 13, 2011 5:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That’s a dangerous road to start traveling down. If we’re looking at NBA impact in “foreign markets” then does being the first (and only) superstar in Raptors history strengthen Vince Carter’s resume?
Hmm solid point.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Jul 14, 2011 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Yao Was An Exception
He is just unique.
I don’t think you port his personality to other foreign born players.
Longer Term PG Picture
I recall a interview where BC talked about having a 20 pt 10 assist point guard as an ideal for him. I think it was sometime during or after last season. When he goes looking for the long term answer at PG, I do not think he will be content with someone that can only distribute or only score and hit open shoots. He’s going to look for the PG that can score and distribute depending on what the team needs at a given time.
If Bayless can be that guy, great. But if given the opportunity, BC will avoid any kind of platoon situation once Calderon’s time with the club has reached its end. The only thing a PG platoon does is eat up your cap space with a good backup, who can’t play minutes at any other position. Ford got his big contract with Colangelo thinking he was going to be Bosh’s running mate for the next 3-4 years. The Caldeford platoon was fortuitous in light of Ford’s injuries and poor play. But it cost the team cap dearly when Calderon signed his new deal.
If the 2011-2012 season is wiped out, what do we do with Bayless?
He would enter the off-season as a restricted free agent, and still relatively unproven. Do you sign him to a qualifying offer, and have him play out the season and become a free agent? Or do you sign him to a short term deal, so that you retain some control in exchange for giving him opportunities to learn on the job.
Im still holding out on the notion that one day - the raps will address the SF position...
On a different note – what about Louis Williams in the back-court? Anyone? Bueller?
'....as a child, I dreamt of being a baseball.'
For now, I think that James Johnson is a step in the right direction. He has the opportunity to make sure that the team doesn’t waste time bringing a wing defensive stopper onto the team. If only he listens and applies the lessons of Dwayne Casey and the coaching staff.
Do Bayless and Louis Williams overlap too much, especially when you add Barbosa to the mix?
A little off topic..
Weems will be playing in Lithuania. What does that mean for the Raptors?
http://sports.ca.msn.com/nba/news/weems-not-waiting-on-lockout-signs-for-lithuania-1
We’re hoping to get a one-on-one with Weems actually or his agent on his decision. Love to hear the rationale (beyond money of course) that goes with a player in his situation making the jump overseas.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Jul 13, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I really like some of these guys.
They would be hard signs though. Guys like vujajic and stucky i woudlnt mind wearing raptors red.
ugh
I really don’t like either of their games… both are very very streaky, and tend to take a ton of bad shots. (not unlike Bayless!)
But at least with Vujacic you’d have some media interest with Sharapova hanging out in the crowd for a few games a year.
Dwane Casey Announces Assistant Coaching Staff - Tom Sterner and Adv. Stats
I guess it is now official
July 13, 2011
The Toronto Raptors announced Wednesday the club has hired Johnny Davis, Eric Hughes, Micah Nori, Scott Roth and Tom Sterner as assistant coaches on new head coach Dwane Casey’s staff. Hughes, Nori and Roth were retained by Casey from Jay Triano’s coaching staff.
I want to elaborate a bit on Sterner since he is new and big into the use of advanced stats. Below is the part of today’s PR that pertains to Sterner. See link below for the entire PR.
==========
Sterner has been an NBA assistant coach for 13 seasons, working for Dallas, Orlando and Golden State.
He served two seasons with Casey as an assistant coach on Rick Carlisle’s staff in Dallas (2008-10).
He spent last season as an advance scout with Philadelphia.
The majority of Sterner’s tenure as an assistant coach was in Orlando where he was on the bench for 11 campaigns. He helped the Magic to the 1995 NBA Finals and served as an assistant coach for the Eastern Conference during the 1995 All-Star Game.
Sterner was the top assistant coach for Golden State from 2002-04. In 2002-03, he led the team’s offense that ranked second in the league in scoring, averaging 102.4 points per game. The following season he changed his focus to defense where the Warriors became the NBA’s most improved defensive squad, allowing 9.6 fewer points per game than the previous season.
Now here is what it says about Sterner on his NBA.com bio
From 1994-2004, Sterner served as chairman of the NBA Technology and Scouting Committee and was instrumental in the development of the Coaches’ Tools software currently used by NBA teams for scouting purposes. He has consulted with companies such as IBM, IDS, Avid Technologies and XOS Technologies.
http://www.nba.com/coachfile/tom_sterner/
More on the the data mining tools developed by Sterner
Being a long-time NBA sponsor, IBM approached the association with the idea of creating a data mining application.
The result was Advanced Scout, a data mining application that now uses IBM DB2 Universal Database, IBM DB2 Intelligent Miner and Virtual Gold’s VirtualMiner software. About 25 teams are currently using Advanced Scout with great success. Says Tom Sterner, assistant coach of the Orlando Magic, “By helping us make better decisions, Advanced Scout is playing a huge role in establishing incredible fan support and loyalty—that means millions of dollars in gate traffic, television sales and licensing. My goal was to prove that data mining concepts can be applied to non-technical arenas. By linking DB2 Universal Database and Intelligent Miner for data through the VirtualMiner software, we are able to do exactly this.”
more here
Data Mining in the National Basketball Association
When the Orlando Magic were devastated in the first two games of the 1997 National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals against the second-seed Miami Heat, the team’s fans began to hang their heads in shame. But fortunately, the Magic had another trick up their sleeve. A data mining application developed uncovered a secret buried beneath the layers of statistics collected at every game.
The application, Advanced Scout, is specifically tailored for NBA coaches and statisticians. Advanced Scout showed the Orlando Magic coaches something that none of them had previously recognized. When Brian Shaw and Darrell Armstrong were in the game, something was sparked within their teammate Penny Hardaway, the Magic’s leading scorer at that time. Armstrong received more play-time and hence, Hardaway was far more effective. The Magic went on to win the next two games and nearly caused the upset of the year. Fans everywhere rallied around the team and naysayers quickly replaced their doubts with season ticket purchases for the following year.
Coaches, like business executives, carefully study data to enhance their natural intuition when making strategic decisions. But unlike business, the direct results of coaching decisions are played out under the eyes of millions of fans, and wrong calls can turn a team’s fans against it, leading to lower ticket sales and possibly a vacancy in the head coaching position. By helping coaches make better decisions, data mining applications are playing a huge role in establishing incredible fan support and loyalty. That means millions of dollars in gate traffic, television sales and licensing.
Looks like the Raptors have now officially entered the world of advanced basketball stats in a big time way.
Sterner
He’s gonna love Andrea and Demar…
It’s put up or shut up time in Raptorland. Come on Demar, play some bloody defence and start hitting your three. I like his attitude and would like him to warrant staying with the team.
Come on Andrea, play some defence, learn to rebound, learn to care, take it inside more on O, and shock the world, or more likely; it’s time to pack your bags. How can an advanced stat guru support a team who give the most minutes to two of the least impressive advanced stats performers in the league? SImple question, anybody got an answer?
How can an advanced stat guru support a team who give the most minutes to two of the least impressive advanced stats performers in the league? SImple question, anybody got an answer?
I am really looking forward to seeing how this plays out during the regular season. Hopefully they can finally start making decisions based on real data and not predetermined minutes.
Geoff Rahal
Author, RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Jul 14, 2011 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Bargnani Is History IMO
Just a matter of finding the right deal to move him.
IMO DeMar is on a short leash to get his act together two years max
+ a million
The one thing this franchise has never learned is how to win. We have let players become bigger than the team (Vince, CB4) and we have overpaid players to come here for years. When we won it was not the raptors winning, it was Vince, or Bosh. If we want to be a winning franchise, it is time to change.
Hold people accountable. A bus driver for the TTC is more responsible for his route than our players have been for their defensive assignments. Advanced stats are great for this btw. When the team holds people accountable it forces players to either improve or be fired. And it makes everyone else around aware of what is expected of them as a member of the Toronto Raptors. If we did this and won consistently, then players would want to come here, even for less to be part of our excellence.
by defensive rap on Jul 14, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
"And Bryan, that means not signing Marcus Banks to another four-year deal ok?"
Did Colangelo sign Banks to that deal? I thought he did but was told otherwise by some other posters here in a past discussion. Can you confirm Franchise?
Phoenix was the team that signed him to his ridiculous contract but i’m pretty sure colangelo was gone by then, just in time to make bargnani our #1 draft pick :(
Yep. It was the same summer that BC was busy signing Garbajosa and Parker.
by dhackett1565 on Jul 14, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
On a Related note:
Breaking News (AP): I hear that Harlem (accross the street from Wild Wings) have proclaimed to have the best fried chicken in Toronto…
more details to follow…
'....as a child, I dreamt of being a baseball.'
It is not true
Their chicken doesn’t strike me as anything special. To be honest, Popeyes has better chicken than Harlem Underground, unless they have changed their recipe in the last five months.
Happiness is that which gets lost in the details of its pursuit.
by HQ Interloper on Jul 14, 2011 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
"The fact of the matter is that Toronto's point guard position in many ways is the position that needs the least assistance (that and/or power forward depending on how you view the metrics)"
Agree with franchise completely, which is why when raptorland went crazy for not picking knight or walker, i didn’t really understand it… As sad as it is, calderon is arguably the best player on the raptors squad… not hard to understand why we only won 22 games last season
bingo
I also think that Calderon is arguably the top player on the team. He is the only Raptor that is a legit starter in the NBA. Derozan, JJ, Kleiza, Amir, Bargs, and Ed Davis would all be bench players on a decent team.
But, that being said, I believe that Calderon’s career is on the decline, so what are you really gaining from playing a 30-yr-old with a $9M/yr deal on a 22-win team? Might as well play Bayless, watch him struggle, and prove to yourself that you need to draft a top PG. The reason to have drafted a PG this year would have been if Colangelo already reached this conclusion… apparently he still needs convincing.
I don't think Calderon should be put out to pasture.... I would like him to be a Raptor lifer... or him and Steve Nash assigned to man our geriatric PG ward....
'....as a child, I dreamt of being a baseball.'
“The reason to have drafted a PG this year would have been if Colangelo already reached this conclusion… apparently he still needs convincing.”
…or an alternative explanation would that there was a better player available at the Raptors draft slot.
“Might as well play Bayless, watch him struggle, and prove to yourself that you need to draft a top PG.”
I agree the Raptors should give Bayless lots of playing time this season. That will reduce the likelihood of Calderon getting injured and give the Raptors a chance to see whether Bayless can be the solution at PG or not.
Mario Chalmers
Only if his tender is 2nd round pick.
There were times in the final where he was the best player on the floor.
"Big Gulps Eh, Well See ya later" - Lloyd Christmas
" You Gus ready To Let The Dogs Out" "What?" " you Know, Who Let the dogs out rough rough rogh rough" - Zack Galifinakis - The Hangover
by PaullyPforPrez on Jul 14, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions
Chalmers and PG duties
If he can be had for minimal money I like his game. But we will have to pay him more than the QO toplay with us, so if we could get him for 1.5-1.9 million, I would consider it because it would free us up to trade Jose and give Bayless and Mario both a chance to prove themselves.
Nothing against Jose, he just might be worth something in the trade market and he is on the decline. Chalmers at less than 2 million and Bayless would be potentially solid players at the one, gives us youth and saves lots of money for other players.
The secret to winning championships historically has not come by having your point guard be your best player (unless he is 6’9" and on an extremely talented roster and his name is Magic). For this reason I don’t get why we needed Knight or Walker. We needed JV or Kanter and we got JV. Great. Now we need all these players to develop.
Next year let’s draft a solid 3 unless JJ exceeds all expectations. And let’s keep riding DD to improve, because that is one of the big keys to this teams future.
JV, Ed, DD, Amir, Bayless, and JJ. Six players all under 25 years of age with potential. It’s a start.
Can you agree with this as well?
We need to trade Andrea ASAP!!! Before the next season starts, before the experiment with Casey and Andrea begins.
The reason; if we trade him now we offer a 20+ point scorer who leads his team on the offensive end (and Toronto’s offence is not that bad) and hopefully can get something valuable in return.
If we trade him later we likely trade a piece that we can’t make work at all, and everyone in the league will know we are desperate to get rid of him so his value will plummet. If he were a stock, the time to sell is NOW!!!
The only exception to this would be if you thought he would meet Casey’s expectations. If you do, please get my email and we should start betting on sports together. I need some free money.
by defensive rap on Jul 14, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL, you'll not be getting much of my money as it seems we'd bet on the same teams...
I would much prefer a Bargnani trade before the season starts but I don’t think it’s likely…
Casey has probably agreed to take a shot at making something of Bargs… hopefully the experiment is over quickly and he decides to pass…
This can end in one of three ways…
Bargnani is the player, and failure, you suggest (most reasonable outcome) : Bargnani Experiment finally deemed failure, trade value diminished, lucky to get a scrub and a draft pick…
Bargnani somewhat improves, but still disappoints Casey (not unfathomable) : Bargnani Experiment is called a draw, trade value stayed or possible improved, BC makes a move before Trade Deadline and acquires useful piece (player or good pick)
Bargnani is reborn, franchise is saved, unicorns rain confetti as they fly over Toronto : Not even worth completing this scenario…
Again, I would love to see him traded before he plays another minute, I just don’t see it happening…
"the Truth"
Trading Andrea ASAP
This is an interesting concept because if the price is right I say trade Andrea all day.
BUT
At the exact same time the value of the return better come in the form of a pretty damn good basketball player not in the form of draft picks. Look Cleveland took Baron Davis to get a #1 overall pick. They took on a former all star getting paid way too much money and received the #1 overall pick. if this what the value of a #1 overall pick in the NBA is, trading a proven scorer like Andrea better warrant a solid player in return. Even if it is a 1 for 1 i,e Andrea for Lamar Odom (very very hypothetical) But I think you catch my drift.
"Big Gulps Eh, Well See ya later" - Lloyd Christmas
" You Gus ready To Let The Dogs Out" "What?" " you Know, Who Let the dogs out rough rough rogh rough" - Zack Galifinakis - The Hangover
by PaullyPforPrez on Jul 15, 2011 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
They received a pick that had a 2.8% chance at being the top pick. It was in the 8th slot. So don’t put too much weight on “the value of a #1 overall pick in the NBA.”
I’d prefer a draft pick, personally. Unless it is a real stud coming back. But honestly, whatever we can get.
by dhackett1565 on Jul 15, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
whatever we can get
The issue is that right now he is worth something on the open market, but in the very near future he may be worth less than the value of his contract.
Simply put, when Casey benches him for not playing defence and not passing and everybody and their uncle knows the new coach wants to dump him, he won’t be valuable to trade. Casey is a defensive minded coach and relies heavily on advanced statistics. Andrea’s worst nightmare.
BC must have known this when he hired Casey and hopefully he wasn’t thinking Andrea could step up defensively and the two would work well together. Hopefully he knew that the two would not work well together. It is very obvious.
So BC either set the table for Andrea to leave by bringing in a coach that would not mesh with Andrea or he believes Andrea can transform himself, (magically no less) into Dirk. I am scared he is holding out hope for the magic thing.
by defensive rap on Jul 15, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
If Colangelo is indeed going to hire a GM to work under him he most likely won’t make a move with Andrea until that happens.
Ah – perhaps here is another reason said GM search is going on – although I don’t believe it, some would say that his ego prevents him from giving up on Bargnani – so maybe he’s bringing in someone to give up on him in his place?
Nonsense, but fun nonsense nonetheless.
by dhackett1565 on Jul 15, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I had that same thought occur to me although along different lines. My thoughts were BC was bringing in a GM so he can get off the hook should Barney turn things around later (“I didn’t trade him” thinking) or the opposite (“I didn’t keep him around, he did”). Either way he gets to shirk responsibility.
+1 on trading Bargnani now provides the best oportunity for value.
The only way Bargnani can be successful is in a utility forward role off the bench (i.e. 7 ft Jason Kapono). No one in their right mind would want to pay a player 7 mil a year for this role. So trade him now where some GM would be dumb enough to think he can be a starter and score 20 ppg.
“So trade him now where some GM would be dumb enough to think he can be a starter and score 20 ppg.”
That actually is exactly what Bargnani was last season(he started, he average 20+ pts/game) and that is about the best sales pitch that the Raptors have in trade talks. The other pitches that would be “he’s still young…” and “he just needs a change of scenary…”
There must be at least one rube (I mean GM) out there who will buy one of those arguments. Is Bargani’s agent in line for a GM job anywhere?
BC's brilliance?
Maybe BC used last year to play Andrea all the while knowing what would happen. The team would lose and get a high draft pick and then BC would stand behind his man and use Andrea’s pts per game to sell people on the fact he is a star.
Now is the next part of BC’s brilliant plan, trade him for something useful and his plan will have created two great pieces for the future out of one lazy Italian. The draft pick (would have been several spots lower likely and netted someone like Leonard instead of JV) plus whatever he can get in return for Andrea soon. But holding on to him too long could ruin BC’s chances of get resigned.
Trading Andrea is the key for this team moving forward. Is BC brilliant and knowingly positioning Andrea for a trade? Or is he still got the rose coloured glasses on?
BC Brilliance is a figmant of peoples imagination
The guy in my mind has done nothing that Glen Grunwald didn’t do and Grunwald got the axe. Colangelo has earned a reputation because of his dadas hard work and his ability to try (key word try) to find diamonds in the rough.
quick analogy: if you look long and hard enough for something eventually you will find it but at what point has the amount of time you have put in decrease the value of the said commodity.
BC, 1 needs to hire a basketball GM. A guy that knows the game and knows how to put the right pieces together, not another great networker and promoter. 2 needs to take some of the ridiculous amounts of money that MLSE has and put into the right players and get to or almost exceed the luxury tax. 3 Start focusing on what he needs to do to get this team to the playoffs again and not worry about constintly building for the future.
"Big Gulps Eh, Well See ya later" - Lloyd Christmas
" You Gus ready To Let The Dogs Out" "What?" " you Know, Who Let the dogs out rough rough rogh rough" - Zack Galifinakis - The Hangover
by PaullyPforPrez on Jul 15, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
BC and new GM
If a new GM and coach decide to move Andrea, it will make it easier on BC to get rid of him. He can say that he trusts his new staff and that their opinions are greatly trusted. It makes it appear that the new GM has a lot of pull and will make the fan base happy.
But BC may have already decided to move Andrea and use the new GM to do so. In the interview wouldn’t it be a simple question; “What would you do with Andrea?” Anyone who says they can turn Andrea into Dirk should not be hired. Anyone who says they want to move Andrea should be considered.
I still think BC wants Andrea to work out but that being the case I have had a hard time understanding why he chose Casey. Defence first coach with the worst defensive player in the NBA? He either knows it won’t work or believes Casey can pull of a minor miracle. Please don’t be hoping for magic to save our franchise BC. Try advanced stats before magic, please.
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