FanPost

Fallacy of the Casey - Dirk and Casey - Bargnani Thinking


This analysis will exclude Nowitzki's and Bargnani's rookie seasons since neither played as a starter in their rookie season.  Nowitzki has played 13 seasons for the Mavericks.  Excluding his rookie season the table below shows his  average per season numbers before Casey and under Casey for PPG, TS%, RPG and Def Rating.

Before we get to those stats lets look at Dallas' wins per season during Nowitzki's 13 seasons with them excluding his rookie season.  Dallas averaged 55.3 wins per season for the nine seasons before Casey and dropped to 54.0 wins per season during the three seasons that Casey was an assistant coach.  Not much of a drop but certainly no increase.

The table below shows a comparison of Dirk's average PPG, TS% RPG and Def Rating before Casey and under Casey excluding Dirk's rookie season.  It also compares these numbers to Bargnani's numbers with the Raptors for the last four seasons which exclude his rookie season.

From the table below we can see that Dirk's numbers actually got a little worse under Casey then from before Casey.  His rebounds per game dropped by over 10% and his Defensive Rating fell by 3.  His PPG rose slightly by 1.2 PPG while his TS% was unchanged. So in reality there was no improvement in Dirk's numbers under Casey but actually a small decline.

The table also shows Bargnani's numbers and compares them to Dirk before Casey.  Note: I have adjusted Bargnani's PPG and RPG to 36 MPG  as that is about what Dirk played both before and after Casey. 

PPG Bargnani is 5.3 lower than Dirk - 18.1 vs 23.4

TS% Bargnani is .05 lower than Dirk - .535 vs .585

In RPG Bargnani is 2.7 lower than Dirk - 5.8 vs 8.5  That is over 30% worse in RPG compared to Dirk B4 Casey and Dirk's rebounding numbers per game went down under Casey.

In Defensive Rating Bargnani is 8.8 worse than Dirk before Casey and Dirk's Defensive Rating got worse under Casey by 3.0.

Conclusions:

1. Dallas averaged fewer wins per season with Casey as an assistant coach then they did before during Dirk's last 12 seasons.

2. Dirk's rebounds per game and defensive rating both fell somewhat significantly under Casey then from what they were before Casey

3. Bargnani is far worse in in PPG, TS%, RPG and Def. Rating then Dirk was before Casey and Dirk's numbers got worse under Casey.

source: here

So there is no hard evidence to suggest that Bargnani will get better under Casey then he was before.  In fact, if Casey uses the Zone defense more often than Triano did I suspect that Bargnani's rebounding numbers and defensive rating will actual get worse if that is possible to believe.

Trade Bargnani now



Dirk

Bargnani (2)


B4 Casey Under Casey Change
2007-2011 Diff (3)
MPG 36.5 36.6 0.1
36.0 -0.5
PPG (2) 23.4 24.6 1.2
18.1 -5.3
TS% 0.585 0.585 0.0
0.535 -0.050
RPG (2) 8.5 7.6 -0.9
5.8 -2.7
Def Rating (1) 103 106 3.0
111.8 8.8








(1) Defensive Rating – The lower the better

 








(2) Bargnani's PPG and RPG are per 36 minutes per game which approximates Dirk's MPG Before Casey of 36.5

 








(3) Difference From Dirk Before Casey






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