With the ? pick, the Toronto Raptors select... - A Look Around the NBA's Mock Drafts
With the NBA Draft Lottery less than a week away, the HQ takes a look at who some of the web's usual suspects have the Raptors' selecting come June...
This time next week all will be revealed.
Well...not all, but at least the Toronto Raptors will finally know which lottery spot they'll be picking from.
At present, they have the third best odds at the top pick in the draft, but where they'll actually pick is anyone's guess.
Right now based on their record, mock drafts have them selecting third overall, thus out of contention for the two players who are the consensus number one and number two prospects; Duke's Kyrie Irving and Arizona's Derrick Williams.
So assuming those two are indeed gone, who do some of the top draft followers have the Dinos selecting?
Let's take a look...
1. ESPN.com - Mock Draft Version 1.1 (Insider) - Enes Kanter - C.
As you'll see below, the Kanter selection is a common theme in the various online mock drafts. If the Raptors stick at the third spot, most "experts" feel he's the next best prospect along with best fit for the Dinos, a team that as we've all noticed, lacks a legitimate center.
The word on Kanter?
From Chad Ford, ESPN.com's resident draft guru:
He is tough, can play inside and out, rebounds the basketball and has a higher basketball IQ than most of the kids his age. He's a bit undersized for a center, but his toughness in the paint will be a welcome contrast to Andrea Bargnani's Charmin-soft game.
Ouch.
Apparently Ford's not such a big Bargs fan.
In any event, at first glance, 6-10 and 255 isn't going to wow anyone. This essentially means Kanter is the same height, based on Ford's stats, as Ed Davis, and only five pounds heavier than Bargs. In fact in his individual draft write-up, Ford notes that Kanter is a bit undersized for his position, and on top of this, "not an explosive athlete."
On the plus side, he does seem to enjoy the dirty work in the paint, has a solid basketball IQ, and has great length despite his height, a key quality amongst the league's top 5's.
2. DraftExpress.com - Mock Draft, Updated May 8th - Kemba Walker - G.
This is interesting.
Walker looked to be a lottery pick all season but this is the first time I've seen him projected to go this high.
Walker is probably the "most known unknown" of the next tier of prospects after Irving and Williams. He had a phenomenal college year at UCONN, and continued that all the way through the NCAA tournament, leading his Huskies to a title.
He's incredibly explosive as a scorer, has great body control and the ability to finish in transition and at the rim, and has dramatically improved as a shooter over his college career.
Walker's undersized, and many feel a duplicate of Jerryd Bayless in terms of his NBA potential, but as Raptors Republic noted this morning, there are quite a few good reasons to look at Walker should he be available when Toronto picks.
3. NBADraft.net - Mock Draft, Updated May 5th - Enes Kanter - C.
Kanter again.
Interestingly, NBADraft.net doesn't have Kemba Walker going until 9 at present, so as you can see, there's still quite a difference in opinion on how many of these prospects project out.
Draft.net gives Kanter an NBA comparison of Al Horford which if it came to pass, would obviously be a huge get for a rebuilding club like the Raps.
That being said, Horford really isn't a true 5, and the one position Toronto seems to have well stocked is actually the 4 right now.
4. SB Nation - Mock Draft, Updated May 3rd - Jan Vesely - F.
The more I read about Vesely, the more intrigued I become.
First of all, he's not going to be a 4 at the NBA level, and seems more of an over-sized, yet slight-of-frame, Nicolas Batum type at the 3.
Second, his game is all about getting out on the break, athleticism, and hustle, all traits the Toronto Raptors could use a big dose of.
He might not be a 5 or a 1, spots that perhaps most fans would like to see the Raptors get major upgrades in, but as we all know, this team needs help everywhere, and an Andrei Kirilenko (one comparison) type or two certainly wouldn't hurt.
5. The Sporting New - Mock Draft, Updated May 9th - Jonas Valanciunas - C.
Another international name in a field of them this year, Valanciunas is no Andrea Bargnani. In fact he's drawn comparisons to the likes of Nenad Kristc as a much more "in the paint" European big man, and while he still has great shooting touch, is hardly going to be launching 3's.
In fact from DraftExpress' description of him as a prospect:
...he's an incredibly intense competitor, a boundlessly energetic player who never stops working for a moment and whose presence is constantly felt on the court.
And
It's easy to see him developing into an Andris Biedrins-type rebounder/defender/hustler in the NBA, but he likely has more even potential offensively than the Latvian big man due to his superior hands and touch (he probably has more of a nasty streak too).
So the opposite of Bargs?
He still needs a lot of work in terms of his strength and size but Valanciunas is a legit center option for Toronto, and while not a Marcus Camby or Tyson Chandler clone, does seem to have a lot of the intangibles necessary for successful big men in the league today.
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Vesely?
That is a surprise name. I haven’t seen him that high on any draft board all season. I don’t think I would pass on Kanter/Jonas to take Vesely.
Right now, I am thinking the Raptors will most likely be drafting fourth. The chances of one team jumping past them is pretty high, but the chances of two teams jumping past them is pretty low.
by DW19 on May 11, 2011 2:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I get the “fourth” vibe too unfortunately.
Interestingly, I’m starting to warm up to a lot of the European prospects because I’m simply not enamored with many of the US kids.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on May 11, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Right now, I am thinking the Raptors will most likely be drafting fourth. The chances of one team jumping past them is pretty high, but the chances of two teams jumping past them is pretty low.
Of course, that’s not the case.
1st: 15.7%
2nd: 15.83%
3rd: 15.66%
4th: 22.61%
5th: 26.25%
6th: 3.95%
Odds on reality is the most likely pick they end up with is 5th. Closely followed by 4th, then a much lower but fairly equal chance at the 1st, 2nd or 3rd picks. And of course 6th is a long shot, thank goodness.
by dhackett1565 on May 11, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Good breakdown dhackett. For me it’s the gut feeling I think that fourth is where they end up.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on May 11, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
If I read you numbers correctly, the Raptors have a 70% chance of being 4th or better and a 30% chance of being either 5th or 6th. Sure, 5th is the “most likely”, but not by much.
The Raptors chances of picking in the bottom 2 spots of their possible range is actually marginally less than their chances of picking in one of the top 2 spots(31.5% vs 30.2%).
That’s the tough part about saying anything is the most likely – any of the 6 options are individually very unlikely to occur – the most likely is only a 1-in-4 shot.
However, by combining the results, you can get useful statements, like your top 4 statement, or top 2 versus bottom 2. What shows there is that the middle two (3rd, 4th) is the most likely pair to fall into, if you separate the pairs that way.
by dhackett1565 on May 12, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Kemba = Damon?
That is the most optimistic comparison I can come up with. Stoudamire provided lots of excitement nad highlights, but he didn’t lead the Raptors or any of subsequent teams to any really major success.
If the Raptors take Walker that would be ok, but I can’t help feeling there will be better options available.
by DW19 on May 11, 2011 3:01 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
but he didn’t lead the Raptors or any of subsequent teams to any really major success.
No player, past or present, could have lead those first three Raptors teams to any real major success. Not even MJ.
Damon was part of two deep runs with Portland losing the Western Conf final in game 7 to the Lakers. Does that count as major success? Of course, it would be a stretch to say he lead the team.
Memphis. ’Nuff said.
If Kemba=Damon, that’s not too bad. You could do a lot worse, and are likely to do in this draft year.
If Kemba=Damon, that’s not too bad. You could do a lot worse, and are likely to do in this draft year.
Completely agree – it’s an interesting comparison too, one I haven’t heard yet but one that makes a lot of sense.
The bottom line for me is that this is one of these drafts where in 3 years, people look back and realize that the third or even second-best player came late in the lottery or maybe even outside of it.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on May 11, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Stoudemire was a guy who was less valuable the less he was able to dominate the ball, and the better the players around him. Walker was able to excel on a team lacking talent and could dominate the ball. And while Walker is listed at 6 feet, there’s absolutely no way he’s that tall. If he measures out taller than 5’10 I’ll be surprised.
I’m starting to think more and more that this is a three man draft- Irving, Williams and Kanter, and I’m not completely sold on Williams. Kanter is probably the player in the draft that is most what the Raptors need and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he ends up being the best player in the draft. I still think Irving’s going to be better, but Kanter’s a guy I’ve liked for a long time.
Tim W.
The Picket Fence
You R Not Sold On Williams
Good, you will lots of negative stuff to write if the Raptors draft him.
If he performs well, I won’t have anything negative to say about him. I’m not judging his career, just saying I’m not sure about him. I think there’s a chance he could end up being a great player, I’m just not sure, at this point.
Tim W.
The Picket Fence
Valanciunas
I am looking forward to hearing more about this guy. He still sounds like the best option outside of the top two. I kind of like the fact that he might stay an extra year in Europe because that gives the Raptors a backup plan if there is a lockout and they will get a more physically mature player when he does arrive. A guy with length, hustle, decent skill, no injury history and a bit if an edge to him. Now we are talking about the kind of centre who could really help the Raps. Is he for real? That is the big question in my mind.
by DW19 on May 11, 2011 3:38 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
interesting
How this draft just seems like a pure crap shoot after kyrie and walker. Tim from tsn did an article saying how if the raps don’t get the first 2 picks that kemba would be a good choice for them. But I’m starting to warm up to brandon knight..he’s agile, can score pretty good and is tall for a point guard (6’3). I’m just getting the feeling this team is going to draft either kemba or knight cause to me pg is the position they need to fix going foward a lot more than another big. Jose isn’t the answer for this team and as much as bayless improved near the end I think he’s still got a ways to go. So what do you think on brandon knight being with the raps?
by sherwin316 on May 11, 2011 5:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Considering they already have Calderon, who is a decent PG, and Bayless, who’s a pretty good backup, I don’t think there is any desperate need for a PG, especially when you consider how many good PGs should be in next year’s draft.
Tim W.
The Picket Fence
Jose is a decent point guard but is injury prone every year and cause of it bayless played so much minutes he got injuried to. considering how all the up and coming point guards are always on attack mode (while jose more often hesitates to do the same) its time to switch the page on jose and get some new blood in there to take over eventually.
by sherwin316 on May 11, 2011 6:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m not saying that Calderon is the long term answer, but he’s more than adequate for the time being. And there are far more quality PGs available next year. Why take a PG this year simply because he’s a PG? Especially when the only PG I’m confident in is Irving.
Tim W.
The Picket Fence
good point
I didn’t even see next years draft for point guards but I’m also saying what we gonna do this year when not if jose goes down for more than half the season again? We gonna give the reigns to bayless (which I don’t mind) but than who’s his back-up? Barbosa? Most if the bigs in this draft are pretty much un-knowns where at least guys like kemba or knight are at least proven players. I just have this gut feeling were gonna draft either one of those 2 if we don’t get the top 2 picks.
by sherwin316 on May 11, 2011 7:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Calderon has never missed half a season. Not even close. In fact, this past year was tied for the most games he missed due to injury- 14. And I think he had a pretty good season, quite frankly. I think his “brittleness” is overblown. He’s no ironman, but he’s fine for the time being, especially since Bayless is a fine backup.
Tim W.
The Picket Fence
Knight
His numbers across the stat board at KU were very similar to Bayless’ AU numbers.
I see no reason to get a second Bayless.
OK it's official.... FML
So if the Raptors miss out on one of the top two draft spots, its a pick between, Ben Gordon lite (Walker), The Poor Man’s Andris Beidrins (Valanciunas), a homeless man’s Al Horford (Kanter) or a Nicolas Batum long shot (Vesely). We’re talking about a possible third pick here, and that’s the murderer’s roe we’re stuck with?!?!?! Wake me up in a decade…
No one seems to like Kanter in this thread?
I’m a big Kanter fan and if he’s available, I think that he’s a good look for the Raps. Any big body that plays big at this point is an addition in my opinion since the Euro “big” we have is a little more Duckworth than Oakley. I saw him play last summer at the Hoop Summit and was impressed.
I’ve seen Vassely play and thought he was good but I only watched one game, hardly enough for a thorough look but still very favorable but is a Nic Batum what we really want right now?
Kemba I like but can the Raps deal with another Damon, or TJ Ford, type guard?
I think the ©Raps can find a few good free agent players to fill in some holes but it they miss out on the top 2 picks, we may be looking at another position by committee situation like last season. And we all know how that worked out.
Ray Bala
CANadian BasketBALL Report
on www.raptorhq.com
I’ve been a Kanter fan for quite a while and would be thrilled if the Raptors drafted him. I see this draft as a 3 man draft and I’m not completely sold on Williams.
Tim W.
The Picket Fence
I Also Like Kanter
If his knees check out he would be the best #3 pick in the draft.
The Weight Thingy
Actually as has been stated more times than we can count Bargnani’s problems on defense are not lack of weight related.
They are as we know horrible team defense and weak rebounding. You don’t have to be a heavy dude to be good rebounder. There are many examples of that. What you need is an instinct for the ball, understanding angles, good depth of vision and the attitude that every rebound is mine.
Kanter is strong enough and pounds the glass hard enough to be a very good NBA rebounder. His problem is his history of knee injuries.
Valanciunas is actually playing tomorrow in the Lithuanian championship game. It has turned out to be the best of three. He starts for Lietuvos Rytas. I will try and watch the game if I remember and it is being streamed. In any case he needs to add mucho weight and has absolutely no left hand. His light weight, and young age of 18 puts him in my mind into the big time project category.
And what exactly is his history of knee injuries?
From what I can gather, he had some tendonitis in high school, and now everyone says he has a history of knee injuries. Maybe I haven’t got all the facts, but I’m guessing most of the people who are repeating this “knee issues” business don’t either.
Tim W.
The Picket Fence
I have been the repeating the “knee issues” business. The obvious reason for that is that there is a precedent of guys like Oden, Bowie, Roy, etc…who turned out to have actual knee or other health problems that compromised their careers. On the flip side there are the DeJuan Blairs and Aldridges who get passed over due to injury scares and then go on to be very productive.
My concern is that I want the Raptors to get the “knee issue” right. I have not seen unequivocal information one way or the other. I hope the Raptors doctors are able to come up with it so that the braintrust makes a correct call.
A Bit Off Topic
There was a Kleiza sighting at the second Lietuvos Rytas – Zalgiris game on Monday.
WOW Calderon
For all those advanced stats guys who point to the WOW score that Bargs has asexample ‘A’ for why he sucks, Calderon’s WOW score is excellent.
I see no reason not to wait another year before drafting to replace him.
Which leaves Kanter/Valanciunas (and maybe Vasely).
Put me in the Kanter camp. He fits a glaring need and he makes a Bargs trade more likely.
For what it is worth WOW hates DeMar as well, if we can get something for him (say a scrub and a 1st in 2012 – now a much deeper draft) I say do it.
by CamHilton on May 11, 2011 9:47 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
DeMar is only a second year player, which makes his WOW numbers less persuasive. Young players take time to learn how to win. If they don’t improve over the next year or two, then we might have a problem.
Tim W.
The Picket Fence
WOW Score
I didn’t know that the Raptors played World of Warcraft.
Seriously, I have never heard of a basketball WOW score.
Can you provide a link to these WOW scores?
Thanks
NBA Draft Combine List in Chicago
2011 NBA Draft Combine List
By Aran_Smith
Wed, 05/11/2011 – 10:30pm
The following is a list of players scheduled to participate in the Chicago “draft combine” from May 18-22. The combine has been scaled back to essentially a non-contact shoot around plus an interview process for teams with selected players. The combine is closed to media (aside from ESPN).
Now I Know Why I Never Heard of the WOW Stat
There isn’t
WOW i= Wages of Win. There is no Wages of Win stat.
Trying to hide WP behind a new name heh.
Won’t work.
Its still a lousy stat.
As with any stat, taken by itself doesn’t say much, but in concert with other stats, it usually is a good indicator of how truly productive a player in.
Tim W.
The Picket Fence
True But Somes Stats Are Just Lousy
even used with others.
Enes Kanter Interview
I was out of basketball for 5 months and had a knee injury
http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/enes-kanter-interview
I think he meant that he had a knee injury and was out of basketball for five months rather while I was out of basketball I had a knee injury.
It could have been tendinitis but being out five months with a knee injury is no minor thing.
Well, we still have no idea what it is. That’s the whole problem. I’m not saying it’s nothing, but I’m also not ready to decide anything based on such little information. As with any other player, assume he’s healthy until you do a complete physical, as you would with any player. There’s a lot of people, though, who are saying don’t draft him based on nothing more than rumour and innuendo.
Tim W.
The Picket Fence


























