If You Want "Dudes," You Gotta Get Them in the Draft
by Adam Francis on Apr 30, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
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As a quick follow-up to yesterday's post, the HQ looks at the importance of the NBA Draft in terms of finding star players.
Yesterday's post on the subject of "dudes," or franchise-type players spurred a ton of great discussion.
A lot revolved around not only the importance of "Tier 1 and Tier 2 players," but also how an NBA franchise went about acquiring them.
This all related specifically to the Toronto Raptors of course, a "dude-less team" currently looking for help this off-season in terms of bolstering its talent level.
Last night, as I was pouring over the various comments, I got thinking that it would be interesting to look at the origins of star players, or "dudes." Did most top teams snatch these types of via free-agency? Or were we talking home-grown talent in the sense that said talents were drafted and cultivated internally, not taken from another team, pre-built so to speak.
Considering that most franchise and Tier 2 talent is recognized each year via the NBA's All-Star game, I decided to compile a list of recent All-Stars to see what I could learn about their origins.
I've linked to said list here; the last near-50 recent All-Star players including which teams they played for during their All-Star selections, their number of All-Star appearances, and which year they participated in the NBA's annual mid-season extravaganza.
More importantly, I've highlighted in yellow those players who played in the All-Star game for the first time, with a club that was DIFFERENT from the one that drafted them.
As you can see, only 10 of the 47 names fall into this category and simply put, most NBA players hit All-Star status with the club that originally drafted them.
Even the exceptions, those highlighted in yellow, are mostly strange cases, not big free-agency gets. Guys like Chauncey Billups, Antawn Jamison and Gerald Wallace had to bounce around a bit before they found the team that was best able to maximize their talents.
From the list, only Gilbert Arenas (think Hibache version), Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer are true examples of players who blew up into All-Stars after signing big free-agent deals.
Sure, there are a few other guys who continue to play at an All-Star level after switching homes via free-agency (Amare, Magic version of Rashard Lewis, Nash etc), but the vast majority of players hit that All-Star jack-pot at some point with the club that originally discovered them.
Anecdotally then, free-agency looks to be better served for filling roster gaps than acquiring franchise talent.
We've seen this first-hand with the Raps as the bigger free-agency moves like Jermaine O'Neal and Hedo Turkoglu have blown up in management's faces, while the team's found success in more subtle transactions.
Really though, for Toronto, the above underlines the importance of a consistent, successful drafting in terms of building a winning club. Sure there's a luck element as we've previously discussed, but you need to do the best you can with what you've got to work with each time you're in that lottery.
Look no further than the two clubs now battling for a shot at the Western Conference Finals.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies both used the draft for years to build up a talent base (how bad does that Hasheem Thabeet pick look now though?), then made some key trades (Perkins, Battier) and minor signings (Nick Collison, Tony Allen) to really position themselves well for the future.
The Raps would do well to follow these models closely over the next couple of seasons, hopefully able to either draft Tier 1 talent at some point, or acquire enough Tier 2 and 3 personnel to trade for it.
That of course starts with the NBA Draft Lottery, now just a few weeks away...
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Draft vs Free Agency vs Trade
I don’t think Raps have anyone worth trading…..well not much anyway that would get them a better player.
I think a Drafted player will take time to develop enough to help this team next year, but we still need to Draft wisely…..which I am not sure Raps can do.
I think if they can grab a proven Free Agent player……a leader who can score……then we would have a much better team and the better players from last year will be even better this year. There are enough bench players on the Raps now, we don’t need any more of those types. Only sign a PROVEN FREE AGENT……OR TWO IF POSSIBLE.
Disagree
Jose, I believe has an expiring deal.Bayless? A team might need a PG. I don’t think Bargnani is untradable either. Barbosa, as well, once he exercises his option. Hell, even James Johnson can be brought up. Hey, we got a low draft pick in not the most talented draft.
And, in all likelyhood, BC at the helm just itching to pull the trigger.
Not that I think we will get anything major back for the above(except the draft pick) but there are pieces that can be played. I hope BC, maintains the goal and not go for the quick fix. If we can get younger, unloading Jose and Barbosa, possibly costing us victories, so be it.
My goal is not to sound pessimistic, I am actually optimistic of this teams long term direction, but maybe our dude is in next years lottery.
I think our dude is indeed in next year’s lottery so maybe a lock-out and shortened bad season gives Toronto said top pick.
That would indeed require some of that proverbial “luck” though.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on May 1, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
It Will Be Interesting To See
how much muscle mass and strength that Ed and Amir add over the summer.
The reality of it is that Amir is already strong enough to do a good job on holding his own against even the elite Power Forwards. The problem, which is really not that much of a problem is holding his own against the bigger stronger Centers in the league.
However, the reason I say it is not that much of a problem is because there are very few centers in the league that are real inside scoring threats. Is seems to me that if Amir can add 15 pounds of muscle mass and equivalent core strength he should be able to hold is own against most centers in the league except for guys like Bynum and Howard but then not a lot of centers can stop them anyway.
What the Raptors need is a strong center who can defend in the middle including giving good weak side help. Whether Amir can ever become that guy we should know in a year or so.
Ed should add enough muscle mass and strength over the next couple of seasons to be able to hold his own against the leagues Power Forwards.
I still am a big fan of the Ed and Amir combo.
The Raptors need three point shooters.
Having said that I would not be unhappy with Williams or Irving.
What the Raptors don’t need is another Power Forward.
JMO
How Amir, Ed, and DeMar come to camp in the fall will have a huge impact on the team I think. And I’ll add Reggie and Jerryd if they’re still around.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on May 2, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's hoping
BC is true to his word. In his season ending press conference he praised Triano for “sticking to team goals”.
As a fan I could sit through another season like last year if the result is a top five pick. Your scenario with the strike would be ideal.
I vote to send Howland to 'The Gambia' for two years to find 'this dude'....
… I mean if he can’t score us (at least one dude) in The Gambia….. who can?!
'....as a child, I dreamt of being a baseball.'
Couple points...
1 – Memphis’ best player, and only All-Star talent, Randolph, was acquired via trade. Their next best player, Gasol, also acquired via trade. Memphis’ draft record is not exactly stellar. They’re a hot topic currently, and a great story, but I wouldn’t include them as an example of your model team build. They’re an exception to the draft a dude rule as I don’t see any of their draft picks being an all-star anytime soon.
2 – Jermaine O’Neal was acquired via trade… not FA. Either way, not drafted, but still. I agree with your point though, draft stars, trade and sign complementary pieces.
Sorry...
Forgot about Rudy Gay… he could be an All-Star… but more likely a Granger/Iggy.
by lessthanzero on Apr 30, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
WOW
I think Iggy is unfairly maligned. Wages of Wins adores his productivity and correctly thinks of him as an all- star level talent.
The problem is that because he doesn’t score the way other SFs do he is thought of as bring less than he is.
If there was a trade we could make to send Bargs to Philly for Iggy we’d be very close to being a playoff team.
Then we’d need to move DeRozan for a productive player to solidify our spot in the post season.
As for the draft. I’m betting we land either Kanter or Valanciunas at pick 4 – all but guaranteeing the end of the Bargnani era.
by CamHilton on Apr 30, 2011 4:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Iggy would be a great fit for this team, even (perhaps especially) with Bargs still here, as he is a good defending and rebounding SF, who could also get out on the break with Derozan, etc.
by dhackett1565 on Apr 30, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on May 1, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I Like AI
but there is no way that I would trade Ed, Amir or DeMar for him.
I'm with you...
…on Ed, but Amir or DeMar? Definitely. Especially DeMar.
by CamHilton on May 1, 2011 2:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Technically, Hedo was acquired via trade, too.
by dhackett1565 on Apr 30, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Only in the biggest stretch of the word. Ultimately almost all FA’s are acquired via a sign and trade these days so I think you can discount those as trades.
Lots of technicalities called out here, nice work folks.
So yes, JO and Hedo were acquired via trade, hence my “free agency moves” comment as I was alluding more to the period they were acquired in, not the manner. Both were not quite 100% true free agent signings, but both were of a much bigger scale than say Jason Kapono, who indeed was signed out-right.
Plus as McGateway notes, so many FA’s are now reeled in via some sign-and-trade methodology nowadays.
And Memphis does indeed have a checkered draft history but mixed in with the Thabeet’s there are also the Sam Young’s and Darrell Arthur’s. And the pick used to acquire Gay was indeed obtained via trade, but Memphis still made that Gay selection.
For me, Memphis isn’t in the same league as OKC in terms of consistent shrewd moves, they’re a great example again of taking as many lottery shots as you can, then mixing in veteran experience.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on May 1, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Chad Ford ESPN Has Raptors Taking Williams If Raptors Get #1 Pick
Evan
Toronto) You now have Raptors drafting Derrick Williams #1. Is this from what you’re hearing from their Front Office?
Chad Ford
(1:54 PM)
The Mock Draft is based on sourcing inside teams. However, it’s very early in the process. I think they could go either way, but I believe they are leaning toward Williams … yes.
Think About It
As you can see, only 10 of the 47 names fall into this category and simply put, most NBA players hit All-Star status with the club that originally drafted them.
The question to ask is.
Of all the players selected to an all-star team what percentage where with the team that drafted them. Take all the all star selected players since the league expanded to 30 teams and multiply it by the number of all star games. That gives you the denominator.
Then take every player who made one of these all star teams (a player is counted once for each season if he makes the all star team more than once in his career) and count the number of times that a player who made the all star team was with the team that drafted him. That is the numerator.
Divide the two numbers. My guess is that the percentage will be way less than 50%
Another excellent write - Adam
You’ve been on a roll lately. Great to see. Without getting into this defense verse offense thing again, I think most people think scorer when they hear “superstar”. Someone who is gifted at putting the ball in the net at under pressure. Today that would be Kode,Wade Pierce, Lebron, Rose and a hand full of others. Nobody is going to trade those guys especially for what Toronto has to offer. So that option is off the table. The other option is to luck out in the draft. It seems we may come up short this time as the draft is quite weak in potential superstars. The last option would be trade for a near star and make them into a star. Don’t know that Toronto has been great at that.
So I ask, do you supose there could ever be a first time to win in a different way. Rather than Batman and Robin, maybe a committee of 4 or 5 Robins and a half dozen Denis Rodmans. Maybe a better system and better discipline.
Thanks raptball and solid breakdown of the top options for Toronto in terms of acquiring said superstar.
Trading for a player of that caliber, or near-caliber BEFORE he takes that next jump is huge in this league. You usually then get that piece at a lower salary, and thus hopefully can ride out his best years at a discount, and can afford to build around him.
However to your point, that doesn’t happen very often (Nets getting Devin Harris for JKidd maybe?)
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on May 2, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
you might be the only one
who forgets that Indy made that pick, the Raptors just called it out.
Had we kept that pick there is no way knowing we would of chosen Hibbert.
I think they would have taken JJ Hickson…they brought him in twice for workouts, a rarity.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on May 1, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Hickson
check out his advanced stats.
Leave a lot to be desired.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hicksjj01.html
Yeah, no stud, just saying that if there was one guy from the draft that the Raps seemed to have their eye on, it was Hickson.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on May 2, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Derrick Williams Tabs Rob Pelinka As Agent
For what it is worth.
Pelinka is also Julian’s agent and 2011-12 is his QO season.
Here is a list of some of Perlinka’s clients
Kobe Bryant
Carlos Boozer
Andre Iguodala
Chris Kaman
Gerald Wallace
Who is more of a "dude"?
Player A:
21.4 PPG / 5.2 RPG / 1.8 APG
44.8 FG%, 34.5 3PG%, 82.0 FT%
Player B:
20.5 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 2.6 APG
42.5 FG%, 38.6 3FG%, 84.8 FT%
Player C:
20.4 PPG / 6.0 RPG / 1.6 APG
49.2 FG%, 78.7 FT%
Player D:
19.2 PPG / 5.6 RPG / 2.2 APG
45.0 FG%, 36.6 3FG%, 75.3 FT%
Player E:
18.9 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 3.3 APG
49.7 FG%, 37.4 3PG%, 86.0 FT%
(A = Bargnani, B = Danny Granger, C = Brook Lopez, D = Michael Beasley, E = Paul Pierce)
Pierce is considered a Tier 1 / Tier 2 Dude
Granger is maybe a Tier 3 Dude
Lopez and Bargnani are probably Tier 4
Beasley was almost out of the league
my point - team makes the "dude", and not the other way around
5 players, almost identical in stats, but 1 (Pierce) is a “Dude” and the others are definitely not.
Danny Granger is probably ranked 2nd on this “dude” list, but look at his FG%!!! He’s highly inefficient wtih that 42% shooting.
This “dude” classification seems to be linked to a team doing well, and not to the player himself. Also, it is tied to urban legends from a few clutch plays (and team achievement) than stats… so, how do you know when you have a “dude”? Was Chris Bosh a “dude”? When the Raptors won the division in 2006-2007, was TJ Ford a “dude”?
Overall, I’m saying that drafting/trading for a “dude” may be harder than it seems… I think that you need to actually GROW your star players within your overall team structure. Most players that have over-achieved have done so because they were finally put in a situation where their strengths shone and their weaknesses were covered up by the rest team.
I mean, if Paul Pierce was put on a new team, would he still be a dude? Hedo Turkoglu was a "dude’ playing next to Dwight Howard, but the opposite on every other team in the league. Yes, you’ve got Kobe and Durant and Wade and Lebron who would all excel on any team, but what about everyone else?
first off
you are comparing various positions… while points may be a fair comparison regardless of position, fg% and rebounds are not. Why no basic defensive stats? ie. Blocks and steals. What about WP, PER, WS etc? Turnovers? Saying their stats are almost the same is such an inaccurate view when so many other stats are missing and there is about 3 different positions being compared there (depending on how you define players).
Also I would mention that being considered one of the “better” players on a team, does not mean you are a “dude”. (Or even a tier 2 or 3 player). Deron clearly is on NJ, Kevin Love on Minn. could be, and nobody on the Pacers or Raps would be. (Hedo was never a “dude”. Dwight was)
I think the entire point of this article was that good teams have dudes, and teams that aren’t good usually need them. If they do have them, they are probably missing other peices (ie. the crazy guy and support players).
In fact if anything I’d argue your “stats” more or less show that teams that rely more on soft, inefficient players won’t be as good as teams that rely on efficient and tough players. And that these type of players shouldn’t be seen as “dudes”.
by Not so Friendly Stranger on May 2, 2011 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions
quite honestly
I got sick of copy/pasting – just picked the major stat categories.
My basic point was: a “dude” isn’t always a “dude” - the team around that player and the system that the team runs can make someone an over or under-achiever.
You look at a guy like Pierce on the Celtics, or Joe Johnson on the Hawks, or even Pau Gasol on the Lakers… the system made them a star. Was anyone calling Pau “the best big man in the league” when he was in Memphis?
I'm just not sure about that
getting an opportunity that one wouldn’t otherwise will help. Playing with better players will help. But I think you are also, at times, confusing “dudes” with 2nd tier players.
Joe Johnson was coming off his first contract when he went to the Hawks. People knew he was going to be good, it was just getting the opportunity to be the focus of the offense which he wasn’t going to get with Steve Nash around.
Pierce was already the main guy in Boston, and had some good years with them.
Did he get better with better players? Sure. But his numbers went down… and he decided to start playing defense which got him recognized as a better player than before.
Pau isn’t the dude on his team (thats Kobe) and he’s not the best big man in the league. He’s a damn good one though. He was in a situation where he was the man on his team, and he simply wasn’t good enough to do it. Now he’s a 2nd tier player… although arguable the best 2nd tier guy in the league.
I think the way you posed it above a “dude” would be someone who could “excel on all teams” is almost accurate. I think a “dude” is a guy that can make his team excel.
by Not so Friendly Stranger on May 2, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d say that the fact that Pierce has similar stats to all the other players mentioned on the list but manages to obtain them in a more efficient manner suggests that he is the only “dude” on this list.
Also, I second NSFS’s point. The reason Kobe, Wade, Lebron (groan), Rose, Howard etc… are considered great player is because they play solid defense as well.
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