You Gotta Be Lucky to Be Good, and Good to be Lucky
by Adam Francis on Apr 27, 2011 1:01 PM EDT
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Yesterday afternoon, I got talking with D Stance about my post regarding the future of the Toronto Raptors' GM position.
I noted that beside the lack of quality GM options that jumped out at me, the other thing that really stood out during my research, was just how hard it is to build a contending team in the NBA, especially in a "small market."
I threw up this stat yesterday but I think it's worth mentioning again in this context; only eight different teams have won NBA titles in the last 30 years.
That's a pretty crazy stat.
Now a lot goes into that statistic obviously, but I think it underscores just how hard it is to not only get to that title game, but to build even an upper echelon team, one that gets through a round or two of the playoffs.
Take one look at the NBA draft from 1999 to 2009. Over that decade, the following clubs participated in the lottery, the number of times indicated in brackets:
Clippers (10), Raptors (7), T-Wolves (6), Wizards (6), Warriors (9), Grizzlies (8), Sonics/Thunder (8) and Hawks (8).
That's eight of the league's 30 teams almost consistently appearing among the league's worst year after year.
You could lump clubs like Cleveland and Milwaukee in as well with five entries; the Cavs saved from appearing much more often by a certain LeBron James, and Milwaukee doing a good enough job with their amassed lottery talent to finally climb out of the league's absolute basement.
But add the latter two to the previous list and that's a third of the league with a spot reserved for them at the annual Secaucus show.
Not good.
But why do the same teams keep appearing in said basement?
Are they simply a consistently mismanaged group?
Or is there some other greater truth here?
To me, and as I noted to D Stance yesterday afternoon, these teams have had a lethal combination of two major factors; bad luck, and indeed mismanagement. For when I poured over the records of NBA GM's there was one big commonality; most successful GM's had "lucked out" at one point in time, and then built on that luck threw a combination of shrewd personnel and financial decisions.
Everyone praises the Buford's, the O'Connor's, the Presti's, etc, etc.
But Tim Duncan, Deron Williams and Kevin Durant weren't decisions their teams orchestrated out-right.
No, the hand of fate (or as conspiracy theorists may argue, Stern) played a major role in where these players ended up, and while the aforementioned executives then did commendable jobs of surrounding said franchise center-pieces with complementary pieces, the center piece needed to be there first.
Of course "good luck" is no cure-all.
Teams like the Clippers and Wizards have lucked into top or near top lottery picks for years, only to blow them on selections like Kwame Brown and Michael Olawokandi.
And even more egregious, sometimes teams luck into a franchise or All-Star player, but then fail to do anything around said piece, eventually losing him for very little. The Chicago Bulls are a perfect example of this immediately after the post-Jordan era. They had a perennial All-Star in Elton Brand after nabbing him with the top pick in the 1999 draft, and dealt him for Brian Skinner and Tyson Chandler after only two seasons, failing to get Brand much help and forcing a rebuild all over again.
So again, to me it's a combination here and I think the old adage "you gotta be lucky to be good, and good to be lucky" is quite appropriate here.
Oklahoma City indeed "lucked" into Kevin Durant, but made their own luck by grabbing Russell Westbrook, who a month leading up to the draft, few people even had in lottery consideration, and then making various other shrewd moves from Nenad Krstic to Kendrick Perkins.
In a league where small market teams have a tough time attracting and retaining "stars," you truly need this "luck/skill" combination in regards to your club's management team. In fact I was going to write at length about this, but Sportsguy beat me to the punch with one of his best posts ever, a look at the issues facing small market teams, in particular, the Sacramento Kings.
So instead of repeating what Simmons did, let's look at the Toronto Raptors for a second, as they could use some luck.
They had the top pick in the 2006 draft, a weak one by draft standards and one that was without names like Durant and Oden thanks to the NBA's new age stipulations.
Now, they have a nearly 16 per cent chance at grabbing that number one pick again, but it falls in a draft with potentially even less talent than 2006, especially near the top.
Whether Colangelo is running the show or someone else is at the reigns, Toronto is going to have to cross their fingers when the ping pong balls come up on May 17th.
But even if this team doesn't land an Irving or Williams, all is not lost.
The team simply has to do the best job with what's available, continually increasing the club's talent base so when luck does strike, the club is ready to cash in.
Remember, there are two pieces to this puzzle, and if luck doesn't strike on it's own, it's up to this club's management to create their own.
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"And even more egregious, sometimes teams luck into a franchise or All-Star player, but then fail to do anything around said piece, eventually losing him for very little."
Isn’t this precisely what happend with Colangelo and Bosh?
Had the same exact thought as I was typing that sentence actually and there’s no doubt that in that respect, BC deserves the boot.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Although there is some truth to the luck story it is also much more complicated than that. Take a look at Boston, who have they drafted in the lottery that is still with the team? Pierce and he was drafted over 10 years ago. Their luck rode on the Allen/Garnett trades and Rondo falling to them outside of the Lottery. But, is that really luck? Almost every year you can find a player who fell out of the lottery who should have been drafted but weren’t because of the risk involved (Granger, Blair) or because teams just didn’t see any future for them in the league (Arenas, Mo Pete). Bad scouting and metrics play a huge part in this as well as too much conventional thinking (i.e nobody wants to draft the net Sam Bowie or now Greg Oden). Luck will always play a factor for getting the first pick in a good year (Hello Tim Duncan and Spurs) but the Spurs wouldn’t have been able to maintain the success they had if they also didn’t capitalize on other GM’s/Teams lack of vision.
As for BC, my issue with him isn’t just that he hasn’t drafted particularly well (Derozan and Davis are still question marks as far as how good they will be) but also that he has yet to find a single decent player in the second round and continuously ignores the problems that are so glaringly needed to be corrected (Defense/Rebounding). If he wants my vote of confidence then he needs to start from scratch. Trade away everyone, take on some bad contracts for draft picks (we get the picks obviously) and suck out for the years we need to draft two quality all-star players. No offense to DD and Davis but I doubt either of them will make an all-star game during their careers, at least more than once anyway and there is no one on this team or in this draft (that we will probably get a shot at ) that will either and BC either has to hit a massive homerun in this draft and get the steal of the decade or there is no point going forward with his track record.
The Raptors Had An Awfully Lot of Good Luck in 2010-11
now lets see if they can build on it.
1. Ed Davis was available for them to draft
2. A lot of injuries forcing them to go young. As it turned out the guys like Davis, Amir, James Johnson, Bayless and DeRozan got a chance to play some solid minutes. They also showed that there is a good deal of potential there for a solid core of young players.
Draftnet.com agrees that on the face of it except for Williams and Irving there are no legit top five picks in the 2011 NBA Draft Early Entry list.
I think for me the “lucky” part was Ed Davis falling to them but beyond that, it’s only if the Raps “luck” into a top two pick thanks to their end of season tumble in the standings that I’ll truly say it was a “lucky” season.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
The thing that bothers me still is that the last ditch effort to keep Bosh which was ridiculous based on the team that already existed (only BC must of believed that adding Turk and Jack would put this team into title contention) and if they had started their rebuild last year we would be one season ahead of schedule, and we would have had a shot at Favors or one of the other top players from the draft instead of getting Davis and being thankful we got an adequate starter. Boils my bubbles.
Title contention
Anyone using those words in speaking about the Raptors is not listening to Franchise
The Problem With The Raptors Pick If It is Not Williams or Irving
It is just not that they most likely will not be getting a real impact player with their 3rd or 4th pick but that the Raptors will have to sign him to a long term Rookie contract, unless that changes in the new CBA.
Unless BC, Triano and company can come up with a potential impact player with their pick it might be wise to trade the pick if they can get some good value for it. I would think that BC is already looking at this.
Right now Rookie contracts run for five seasons with the fifth season being the QO season. Some rookie contracts like Cousins have only two guaranteed season followed by two season with a Team Option and the fifth season being the QO season if the Kings pick up the team option on him in seasons three and four.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=9170
However, all these ground rules could change significantly under the new CBA.
It will be a very interesting off-season for the Raptors.
Could be used as grease in a Bargnani trade? Maybe with a 2012 pick coming back?
by dhackett1565 on Apr 27, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
There are no more long term rookie contracts
What you described in Cousins contract is what every rookie drafted in the first round is signed to. Only 2 guaranteed years. Perhaps this will change in the new CBA, but if it does, it will only be in a way more beneficial to the teams, not the players. Changing the rookie contracts to their current form was one of the concessions from the last CBA. So, again, there is no way we can get “stuck” with a long term rookie contract because they don’t exist anymore.
As far as an impact player with the 3rd pick, there are several. The one that jumps out at me is Kemba Walker. While not a typical dish it out PG, he is a phenomenal player, and with his experience should be an impact player from day 1. Worst case scenario he is Jameer Nelson, which to me is an impact player well worth the salary you pay a 3rd overall pick. Best case he is Monta Ellis and the team has a new PG and leading scorer.
There is also the 2 euro bigs, Valanciunas and Kanter. Both have the potential to be impact starting centers in the league, and would be worth the sub $4M salary you pay a 3rd overall pick. I can’t comment intelligently on their long-term potential since I haven’t seen either play, but according to all the draft websites they are traditional down low centers, unlike Bargs, so at least they would fill a need.
I’m fine with trading the pick, but as you pointed out, it doesn’t have the value a typical 3rd overall pick would have, so we would be getting much less back in return. I think I’d rather keep the pick, hope it makes the team better, and if it doesn’t, oh well, we will have a great draft position in 2012 to try again.
by IWillPartyHard on Apr 27, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Say What
No more long term rookie contracts? R U negotiating for the Players Association?
Thanks to ESPN I saws Kemba Walker play more often than I would care to remember and he will not be an impact player. Personally I don’t think he is even worthy of a lottery pick, but then this season the pickings will be slim. He is too short. He is listed at either 6’0" or 6’1".
There are no more impact point guards as short as him. No way he will be able to guard in the NBA. On top of that he ain’t no Alan Iverson. Players in the league have gotten too big to allow shorties to penetrate. I see him as maybe another D. Collison or Mike Conley and while both are decent PGs neither is an impact player like Rose.
I don’t see Walker being better than Bayless.
Kanter already has bad knees. Missed the entire 2010-11 season due to knee injury and it was not the first time that he has had knee problems.
I watched Jonas’ last game a couple of days ago. I like the guy’s upside but right now he couldn’t play in the NBA. Physically he is a much shorter version of M. Bol. He is skinny as hell. He makes Ed Davis look like Mr. World.
That being said I’m not a Walker fan either and agree that he’ll only be slightly better than Bayless. Remember, Bayless was a stud at Arizona and at one point projected to be a top 5 pick.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
So you are saying that Collison or Chris Paul are not impact point guards? Both are around the 6 foot mark. Heck I think Nash is only listed as 6 2 so he is hardly much bigger. In fact I just read an entire article on how smaller Points are the wave of the future because of the rule changes implemented (hand checking fouls, impeding etc) so I think you might be selling Walker short (semi-pun intended). I am not sure whether he is the long term solution for this team or not but it can’t hurt to take a flyer on him as a fall back position.
Collison and Paul
Yes Collison is not an impact player. He is a flashy small PG. However, if you into his numbers you will see that he is not even average. I have followed his career since he screwed it up at UCLA with his big time choking in big time games.
He didn’t do much to help the Pacers vs the Bulls.
Yes I forgot about CP3 however you want to compare K. Walker to CP3. I think that you have a hole in your screen door.
"however you want to compare K. Walker to CP3. I think that you have a hole in your screen door."
LOL @ “hole in your screen door” That was fantastic.
But beside the point I am not trying to suggest that Walker is in Pauls class only that the blanket statement that small guards do not impact the game is fallacious. Walker could suck dog dirt for all I know but dismissing him because of his size is not a good idea.
Read My Post About Him
It isn’t just his size.
I saw him play too often and he reminds me way too much of Will Bynum.
JMO
Or maybe CP3 is the exception that proves the rule? Not my personal stance, but I don’t really like the look of Walker, so I’ll grab whatever argument leans that way ;)
by dhackett1565 on Apr 28, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
For me it’s not the size piece.
Guys like Aaron Brooks and Ty Lawson have been very effective at six-footish heights. It’s more that I don’t see Walker as someone who will make his teammates better. As a great scorer off the bench with a ton of heart that will make key plays for you? Sure, and if you land him, well, you take what you get. I just don’t expect him to be an impact starting player.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2011 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
You Are Correct About 2010-11
I knew he was academically ineligible but I thought he was also injured. In any case he hasn’t played in a real game since April 2010 and he has a history of knee injuries
-—————————————————————————————-
Enes Kanter Update
Posted: Updated:
By Kent Taylor – email
LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) – Kentucky freshman basketball player Enes Kanter says he didn’t know he was doing anything wrong when he and his family accepted excessive benefits while he played for a club basketball team in his native Turkey as a teenager.
Kanter, who threw out the first pitch Friday at Kentucky’s baseball game against Auburn, was declared permanently ineligible on Jan. 7. The NCAA ruled he accepted $33,033 more than his actual and necessary expenses while playing with the Turkish club Fenerbahce.
The 6-foot-11, 262-pound center from Istanbul is still in classes at Kentucky and says he will finish his semester before going to Chicago to prepare for the NBA draft with trainer Tim Grover. He says he’s eager to play again since he hasn’t played in a real game since last April’s Nike Hoop Summit
http://www.wave3.com/story/14413984/enes-kanter-update
Weaknesses: One of the big concerns scouts have with Kanter is his physical health. He has had a history of knee problems and there are concerns about his knees not checking out 100% when he has NBA physicals
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/enes-kanter
I was out of basketball for 5 months and had a knee injury when the first chance came. I became healthy after the national team process, I did not want to throw away a second opportunity and went to USA.
Get your facts straight!
Kanter did not miss the entire 2010-11 season because of a knee injury!
He wasn’t allowed to play by the NCAA because of previous professional experience in Turkey.
Yes he missed a year of in game development, but by all accounts he practiced with Kentucky and has been working out tirelessly.
by lessthanzero on Apr 28, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Kemba Walker
Would be a decent consolation prize if the Raptors don’t get lucky and is a safer pick than the two Euros, if only because there’s more information on what he can and cannot do. The two Euro bigs could be a good pick or a bust or something in between.
The Raptors need to get a good player out of this pick. Not necessarily a stud player, because they will probably suck again next year, but they do need to get more talent.
The Raptors Have Too Main Needs
Muscle on the inside and three point shooters.
D. Williams would be the ideal pick for the Raptors. Lets keep our fingers crossed.
Top 3 Point Shooters in the NCAA last season.
See anyone worthy of a #3 or #4 pick? I sure don’t
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/player/_/stat/3-points
No, but I’m a big Jon Diebler fan. Wonder if he might not be the next Jason Kapono.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Hear that Jonny? Colangelo’s gonna sign you to the full MLE. Lucky bugger.
by dhackett1565 on Apr 28, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL
And then realize your not what the team needed and that he made a mistake signing you and trade you within 18 months…
I was actually surprised he took so long.
by dhackett1565 on Apr 29, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Usually for the first 12 months – eventhough its clearly not working, and all the experts and most fans knew it wouldn’t work in the first place – BC will continue to try and sell his signed player to the fan base and continue to force the coach to increase his usage and minutes in a futile effort to prove he was right. Then, only after ruining the player’s trade value, he will try and trade him. That’s why it usually takes so long ; )
Well, about a year is his max otherwise – Turk after a year, JO only 2 months into the season, Marion at the end of that season, Kapono after two years… Kapono is the longest stretch of his major acquisitions, so I guess that is why I was surprised.
by dhackett1565 on Apr 29, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you are forgetting the most important referance:
Bargnani. He was re-signed pre-maturely and unnecessarily and only now has he come around to trading him (if you read into his post-season press conferance remarks).
Good point. So, again one year after the signing. See why I thought Kapono took so long? Usually its within a year. Even with Bargs! Hopefully…
by dhackett1565 on Apr 29, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Oops! Stupid optimism, always getting in my way.
by dhackett1565 on Apr 29, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks “IWill…”, was going to say the same thing.
Only first two years of rookie deals are guaranteed, then it falls to team options.
Also, even in a draft that’s considered weak, it’s pretty hard to think that with a top 5 pick, to IWill’s point, you won’t get excellent bang for your buck unless the team reaches incredibly on someone.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
So Who is This Bang 4 UR Buck Guy
that the Raptors could pick at #3 or #4?
I would love for them to find one but right now I don’t see one.
Any suggestions.
Needs. - A strong muscular big who can defend and a three point shooter who can do more than Kapono or Korver.
Raptors All-Time Leaders - Advanced Stats
3,000 or more minutes played in their career for the Raptors.
Top five in each category
W/S 48
==
Donyell Marshall 17.9
Chris Bosh 15.8
Vince Carter 15.1
Amir Johnson 14.8
Jose Calderon 13.0
True Shooting Percentage
=========
Amir Johnson .621
Matt Bonner .589
Jose Calderon .573
Chris Bosh .571
Donyell Marshall .571
Rebounds Per 36 Minutes
======
Kevin Willis 10.4
Keon Clark 9.7
Donyell Marshall 9.7
Jerome Williams 9.6
Antotnio Davis 9.5
Amir is 6th at 9.4
Reggie does not have 3,000 career minutes with the Raptors
Total Rebounding Percentage
=========
Kevin Willis 16.3%
Keon Clark 15.4%
Donyell Marshall 15.4%
Amir Johnson 15.3%
Jerome Williams 15.2%
PER
=====
Vince Carter 21.8
Chris Bosh 21.3
Donyell Marshall 19.8
Tracy McGrady 19.5
T.J. Ford 19.0
Amir is 9th all time at 17.2
Offensive Rating
====
Amir Johnson 124
Matt Bonner 121
Jose Calderon 118
Donyell Marshall 114
Chris Bosh 113
Defensive Rating
===
Keon Clark 99
Donyell Marshall 100
Charles Oakley 102
Jerome Williams 102
Kevin Willis 103
Total Win Shares
=======
Chris Bosh 61.8
Vince Carter 47.7
Jose Calderon 32.0
Morris Peterson 30.5
Antonio Davis 22.8
Fouls Per 36 Minutes (LOL)
=====
Amir Johnson 5.6
Matt Bonner 4.8
Joey Graham 4.7
Keon Clark 4.6
Antonio Davis 4.6
=====
Worst
Big Man Rebounders (6’9" or more)
Rebounds Per 36 Minutes
======
Andrea Bargnani 5.8
Matt Bonner 6.3
Marcus Camby 7.9
Rasho 8.0
Oliver Miller 8.4
Percentage of Rebounds
=====
Andrea Bargnani 9.5%
Matt Bonner 10.3%
Marcus Camby 12.6%
Rasho 13.1%
Oliver MIller 13.5%
WS/48
===
Jason Kapono 0.039
John Wallace 0.039
Macus Camby 0.057
Charles Oakley 0.057
Jalen Rose 0.059
Bargnani, DeRozan and Jalen Rose are all tied for sixth worst Raptors all time in WS/48 at 0.060
Corr on the last stat
Tied for sixth worst all time in WS/48
Replace Jalen Rose who is fifth worst with Oliver Miller who is tied with DeRozan and Bargnani for sxith worst all-time in WS/48
Thanks Buddafan for that! Cool to go down memory lane with advanced stats!
Great to see that Bargnani ranks as one of the worst ever on a consistantly bad and underachieving franchise… Chris Bosh’s total win share numbers are huge compared to the rest of the feild.
Oliver Miller in the same sentence as Bargs…yikes.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Also, if you increase Amir Johnsons offensive touches I bet his rating will take a hit. I just do not see building an offense around him.
Good news: When the Raptors increase a players usage and he becomes more inefficient, they just look the other way while pointing to the bump in scoring average.
Geoff Rahal
Author, RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Apr 27, 2011 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
What I Found Interesting
was how high Donyell Marshall ranked all-time in both offense and rebounding stats but not in the top five in Win Shares.
Actually excluding the last two months of this season when Amir played injured his advanced stats have actually stayed the same or increased even with increased usage. However, neither increased by much but still there was an increase and not a decrease.
Besides the point is as you see the Raptors starting to play Johnson with Davis is that Davis will probably be the bigger scorer and maybe even bigger rebounder, but Amir is still the best on the Raptors with respect to interior defense.
At this point if Amir can stay healthy and get stronger I can see him being a 15 – 9 starter with a high offensive efficiency and excellent interior defender. In other words a solid starter but not one of the top two or even three go to guy on offense.
Remember he averaged 12 and 7.7 in 29 mpg during Jan and Feb as a starter. I think he can add another 3 ppg and 1.5 rpg to his numbers if he can up his minutes to 32 or so a game. He also shot 62% from the field and 78% from the free throw line for Jan and Feb.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3982/splits;_ylt=ArZkXCx6GaYfYcvLK9iYpSE9PaB4
Comparing
In 2008-09 Amir’s usage was 11.1% and his WS/48 was .142
Last season even with the 13+ games that he played injured his usage was 15.3 and his WS/48 was .146.
So despite starting in 2010-11 vs coming off the bench in 2008-09 his usage went up by close to 40% and his WS/48 went up by 10%
His 2010-11 WS/48 numbers were actually higher than in 2009-10 (.150) until he got injured and played those 13+ games on one ankle.
His PER last season was 17.6 which was the highest of his career and higher than Bargnani’s!!
So contrary to the the fallacy that his efficiency would go down with more minutes it has actually gone up
How far away are Raptors from competing for a title?
Look at recent history, the last 20 years 3 teams won 15 times, with 5 MVPS.
Chicago 6 wins, Jordan 6 MVPS
Lakers 5 wins, Shaq 3 MVPS, Kobe 2
San Antonio 4 wins, Duncan 3 MVPS, Parker 1 MVP
The rest of the NBA, Raptors included are light years away.
Pre-requisite to winning, or competing, at least one superstar, 2 supporting stars,
and a experienced superior star coach.
Maybe Miami and possibly Chicago, has the best chance in the coming years to compete for championships, as Boston and LA grow older.
No Question That The Raptors Would Need an Impact Player To Win
That is why I would love to see them draft either Irving or Williams.
I think between those two, DeRozan and Davis the Raptors should be able to come up with a major impact player.
I don’t like the term SuperStar because a lot of players have been so called “SuperStars” but never led their team to a NBA title. Just my preference but I agree with what your point.
impact player
Of course we need to get an impact player in this draft. Even if we end up picking 5th, we need to get an impact player. Irving is the only sure bet in this draft, or as sure as one can be with a freshman who played limited minutes, but all the signs are there and scouting agrees with this assessment. Williams fits a need on our team and he looks promising, but he is still a gamble.
Kanter is a gamble, but he also shows potential. He sounds like the centre we wish Andrea could be according to the few draft reports I have read.
After those three, no one excites me that much. Walker seems like Allen Iverson light. A high volume shooter who is offensive minded all the way. A loose defender who always goes for the steal. But if he could do what AI did in his career, maybe we should take him. (I would not gamble on a shoot first PG who is barely 6", but I wish the man well)
Is there anyone else that is exciting in this draft? We need a player who can be a solid starter on this team for years to come. It looks to me if we don’t get one of the first two picks, we are in a tough spot.
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