Should the Raptors Fire Triano? Does It Even Matter?
by Adam Francis on Apr 1, 2011 2:00 PM EDT
in General
Email
PrintAs the season winds down, many Raptors' fans are wondering if Jay Triano shouldn't be canned. The HQ wonders if that question though is even relevant.
Apparently there's another hot-button topic in Raptorland besides Andrea Bargnani, and it's the future of Jay Triano.
This morning I polled our HQ audience regarding the Raptors' coach's future, and while 41 per cent think he should be canned come end of season, it's not exactly a clear-cut situation.
About an even 30/30 split believe that he either shouldn't be fired, or that there are a lot bigger issues associated with the team's performance this season than simply what the coaching staff has or has not done.
The comments reflect this, and the discussion on the site yesterday backed this variety of opinions too.
In fact it was the reader comments yesterday that urged me to pen this afternoon's little piece.
Yes, the Raps have indeed perfected "a losing recipe" this season so to speak, but how much of this actually falls on the coaching staff? Haven't guys like Ed Davis, Amir Johnson and DeMar DeRozan taken big steps forward, while others like Jerryd Bayless and Joey Dorsey shown some signs? Or does that simply mean that while the club has done a good job in developing talent, it has failed in terms of turning that development into wins?
It's an interesting situation, and injuries this year have further muddied the waters regarding just where the "bad coaching" argument starts, and the "lack of talent" argument stops.
However I want to remind everyone that we've seen this movie before.
In 2008, Sam Mitchell was fired as coach of the team after winning only 8 of the first 17 games of the season. If you recall, the hammer came down after a 132 to 93 road loss to the Denver Nuggets.
The argument was that Mitchell's team was severely underperforming at that point, and Raptors' GM Bryan Colangelo called the beat down at the hands of the Nuggs, the "final straw."
Said Colangelo:
"Obviously, last night's game was just an absolute kick to the gut." "When you look back, it's a culmination of things. Expectations are high. We want to win."
However people forget that the team that year was plagued with injuries too to start the campaign.
Jermaine O'Neal was trying to get his game back, Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon battled some injury issues, and most importantly, Hassan Adams showed up to camp out of shape.
As well, and I'd argue more importantly, Toronto was trying to back Jose Calderon up with the gruesome-twosome of Roko Ukic and Will Solomon. Sure injuries played a part, but the talent just wasn't there.
Should Mitchell have been canned?
In my opinion, he shouldn't have been extended in the first place, but obviously the "Coach of the Year" award forced Colangelo's hand.
However while I didn't think he was the best coach, I was adamant that Mitchell was not the main problem with the team, and that a new coach wouldn't have much more luck in terms of winning games.
Sure enough, three seasons later, the club has 20 wins.
Is the current iteration of the Raptors a much-less talented bunch?
At face value you would have to say that's the case as the DInos are missing many of the bigger names from that club, like Bosh and O'Neal.
However the reality is that the average PER for the 2008-09 club pre-Marion trade was 13.08, while this year's club's pre-James Johnson PER sits at 14.03.
Both are hardly great marks considering the league average is 15, but one could surmise that we're not talking about a huge gap in talent between the two groups.
In fact when you look at the average PER of the starting five that year (Bosh, Calderon, O'Neal, Parker and Moon) versus this year (Bargnani, Evans, Kleiza, DeRozan and Calderon), it becomes quite evident that while the 2008-09 team had the superior starting five, this year's group has the much deeper and more talented bench, hence the higher overall average PER mark.
Really, the point of this exercise is simply to note that neither team was a very good basketball club, and while the coaching staff has gone through various iterations (remember our good friend Marc Iavaroni?), the one constant has been a team by and large devoid of basic talent.
And this falls on Bryan Colangelo and his brain-trust.
Therefore the Jay Triano situation in my opinion, is a bit of a moot point.
Do I think he should be fired?
Wouldn't a better question be, "would it make a difference if he was?"
To me this team hasn't been killed by coaching decisions, but by a steady stream of shall we say, "overly optimistic views of talent."
Jermaine O'Neal.
Andrea Bargnani.
Roko Ukic.
And those are just some of the main names here, we're not even going to touch on guys like PJ Tucker and Nathan Jawai, less focal but nonetheless disappointments.
To me, you can spin the coaching debate any way you want, but until this team starts making much better personnel decisions, hiring the next Phil Jackson won't amount to much.
If the talent isn't there, there's only so much a coach can do.
However I don't want this to be misread as a defence of the job Jay Triano and his crew have done either.
There's simply no excuse for the complete lack of defensive improvement this season, and it's a pretty sad state of affairs when you look across many of the league's statistical categories.
The Raps don't place very high in the vast majority of them, and really that should come as no surprise considering the club is on pace for its third lowest win total in franchise history.
No to me, instead of a heated debate over Triano's future, the real discussion should be focused further up the corporate ladder, all the way perhaps to MLSE and its ownership. (Especially with rumours of MLSE's possible sale.)
Because while the on-court product is certainly a mess, until the boardroom situation is straightened out, it's going to be pretty hard to get this ship back on course, regardless of who the on-deck captain is.
37 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
BC and Jay
If I was a high level executive and I performed the way these two have I would expect to be fired. BC is to blame for his choices and Jay is more of a victim, but both probably need to go because it is time to start fresh and get some new energy and ideas into the franchise.
BC is a victim of his own doing and Jay is more one of circumstance but they should both still be victims and looking for new work this summer.
Since the starting five usually plays about 36 minutes per game each (on useful teams, anyway), that means the starting five is 3 times as important as the bench. So your average PER comparison is a little flawed.
A time-played weighted PER average might be more useful to draw comparisons.
Simply put, this team is pretty awful, talent-wise, and experience-wise it is pretty lacking too. Jay is not to blame – however, he certainly hasn’t proven himself to be a good coach either. Developmentally, perhaps, that’s up for discussion, but not in terms of results. A league worst defense for a couple years running means the system is flawed.
But I agree about the big picture – might as well keep Jay on board – he’s cheap and is a familiar face for the players, and this team is likely going nowhere next year anyway. The real problems will be dealt with this summer as ownership potentially changes hands and the future GM (be it BC or otherwise) is established.
+1
I was thinking the same thing as I read this post. Otherwise, this was a pretty good summary of the issues.
Weighted PER
Didn’t have time to get into the weighted piece but expected these notes, good points. Yes, starters obviously are of much greater importance so it’s admittedly simplistic to simply average a team’s total PER over it’s top 12 contributors.
Really though, the point I was trying to make with the PER note was that you had a Raptors’ team that fed off it’s top five or six guys for wins in 2008-09, versus one that relied on the contributions from its top 10 or so this year. In the end, there’s not a ton of difference between the two clubs talent-wise once you factor in this year’s injury parade.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
Does it even Matter?
I think Jay fell into a bad situation, and simply wasn’t strong enough (or experienced), to handle it. IMO, I think it would be best for the team to move on – unfair as it might seem.
The argument to where “bad coaching” starts, and “lack of talent” stops – is somewhat of a misnomer. What some call a lack of talent, I call a lack of experienced talent. And by experience, I don’t just mean playing time in the NBA. I mean relative to the new roles brought about with changes to this team (ie. Bosh gone).
- Davis is a rookie – who was probably a steal at the draft. Maybe someone could remind me who chose him … that seems to be forgotten, in this fixated world (here) of yesterday deals. He’s a talent that will be able to handle real Bigs, once he’s gained some pounds and a stronger physique. Should Jay have played him more? Considering his minutes (before the NBA), I think Davis’ time on the Court was sufficient to his development. For Ed, it’s about next season now – 8 games will not change that.
- Demar is not so much a 2nd year player, but a player counted on to be the #2 offensive guy. New role, and new challenge. Last year, teams didn’t pay much attention. Today they do. In tandem with Andrea, they make a pretty powerful scoring combination. For Demar, he has to now develop a defensive awareness. Some of that goes with having a regular line-up, and knowing the guys on the Court with you. That part was severely affected by injuries. Also, a 3 point shot wouldn’t hurt Demar either.
- Bargnani – hate him or not, his new role has been #1 offensive guy. He didn’t ask for it, but IMO, there are few who can use the complete floor when it comes to scoring. We also expect him to be #1 defensive guy – that’s what Centres do, right? Yet, all I hear, is how tough it is to obtain/trade/draft for a defensive Centre. They are a commodity in very short supply – yet we forget that so conveniently when suggesting we “just go out and get one”.
As far as playing too much – yeah. But with the high number of injuries, one can’t place the blame on Jay. In some ways it was frustration on his part. Amir & Ed don’t have the body to handle a team like Milwaukee. In that game, Andrea left the 1st Quarter with a 10 point lead, and re-entered with a 1 point disadvantage. To me, that lead was not so much where we lost the game, but lost the opportunity to seal a win.
For other guys, their futures depend upon the draft and free agency.
- Jose tenor with the club will depend on Raps obtaining a top pick or getting (very) lucky and signing a quality PG.
- Bayless is toast as far as I’m concerned.
- Weems could be gone – although he could play a lower Bench role on this team.
- Reggie as a role model and 5th Big would work better.
- Amir will come off the Bench if Davis gains ground via strength & bulk. They are too similar to have them as our Front Court – Raps would get destroyed by big teams.
- James Johnson – his future will probably be as SF off the Bench. He could prove that wrong, or he could just simply lose it a high draft pick. A Barnes or Williams (as SF), could bring out the best in JJ though. Not a bad thing.
- Barbosa if healthy, will be on the clock – one that winds down to the trade deadline.
As much as I hear reasons for this season (Coach, BC, Bargnani, Jose etc.), and how these issues affected our future, I still believe the #1 reason that impacted the Raptors the most – was injuries. By far.
- Wins – some say 5 – 7, others say 8 – 10 ……… I tend to differ to a higher number. Not only did we miss players, but we played with injuries that were not just minor grievances. And for a young team – with little experience – our play-making issues were exasperated by the PG situation. Or lack of one on the floor.
- Expiring Contracts – they became useless once injuries took over. This affected BC’s ability to improve at the deadline – aside from minor trades.
- Young team with changing line-ups, forced positions, and lack of ball-handlers, were a function of this injury riddled season. As a shallow team (of experienced talent & veterans), Raps couldn’t afford the man game losses that they did. Even Contenders couldn’t handle such a scenario.
Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I can get by this year. Next year though, I can’t be okay with missing the play-offs. We need to make it, not only because it shows some improvement, but because this young team needs play-off experience – even if it means getting blown out by the likes of Miami.
Play-offs will be a testament to who we are, and what potential we have going forward. I’m sick and f*@king tired of starting all over again. Time to step forward.
.
re: Raptors Roster
Thanks for the comprehensive View on the team’s roster
I admire your stance on playoffs next year. If the guys we have on the team right now, can put in a good offseason of work and make the kind of progress that gets us in the playoffs, well all the power to them. With a lockout right around the corner though, the Raptor assistant coaches (like Alex English) will be unable to travel the country working out various players and checking on their progress. This is unfortunate since I think James Johnson could benefit greatly from getting as much coaching and development as possible. It goes without saying that the same applies for Ed Davis, and Demar DeRozan.
In a lockout shortened, or significant offseason shortened season, I think we run the risk of seeing more of the same next year.
When we next make the playoffs, Ed Davis will be contributing as a 30 plus minute rotation player. He’s just not ready yet, and may need two NBA offseasons of weight training and conditioning to carry that load. What I don’t want to see is the same parachuting in of role player veterans into starting roles ala 2006 offseason. Jorge Garbajosa and Anthony Parker were great pickups, let that not be denied. Rasho was servicable, and in light of your mentioned dearth of bigmen, was a underrated pickup. All that being said, they were relied on far too much, because the team had very little depth in terms of young players that could merit starters merits. And this ultimately did all three of them a disservice. When Anthony Parker and Nesterovic were getting long in the tooth, there were no internal candidates to pick up the torch and allow them to settle into background roles.
Roster Additions
- An ornery vet of a wing defender, to play 15 minutes per game, but more importantly pass on some tricks of the trade to DeRozan. Bonus points if you can sign someone who has designs on coaching when his playing days are done. Those guys are usually big on mentoring others and passing along lessons from coaches they’ve played under in the past.
- A big body veteran center, who can absorb some minutes against some of the NBA’s bigger players. Buddahfan recently predicted that Ed Davis would eventually leave the Raptors. I think it was implied that it would be due to frustration over trying to rebound for two people. Rasho was brought in to lessen the wear on a young Bosh. It’s only fair we do the same for Ed Davis.
- Draft Focus
Trading down to drafting the big bodied center prospect that plays alongside Ed Davis in a future front court would be a decent choice if we’re left with projects and suspects when our pick comes around. That player could be the fifth big behind Bargnani, Ed Davis, Amir Johnson, veteran center. Apprentice for a year or two, then slip into a larger role when one of the first three are shipping out of town.
Great Post
I think that’s a pretty good breakdown of the situation RapthoseLeafs. I’m not quite as big on using injuries to explain everything, but I agree that it’s not just a lack of talent on this club, but experienced talent.
It’s interesting though that you expect them to make the dance next year considering that they may be adding another rookie with their top pick, and very little else depending on the cap situation.
I’m guessing then your interpretation was that the club wins close to 30 games if healthy, and that a top pick in the mould of a Derrick Williams puts them over the top considering how few wins will be required this year to get the 8th spot in the east.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 2, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
One Jerrod for another didn't work
Correct me if I’m wrong, but the Raptors’ season started to go downhill when they traded Jerrod Jack and that other dude to New Orleans for another Jerryd, Mr. Bayless. As far as I can tell, Bayless has been a bust, while Jack was at least a serviceable point guard who took some of the pressure off Calderon. With Jack in the lineup the Raps had a better shot of at least contending for 8th which would have made the season much more interesting. For that boneheaded trade, I blame Colangelo.
JARRETT Jack wasn't happy playing behind Jose...
He is currently the better backup PG out of him and Bayless, true.
Bayless may have more room to improve whereas Jack has plateaued.
Will he improve? I don’t know.
But moving an unhappy player who was doomed to become more unhappy and eventually stop putting in the effort for a guy with a very similar skillset but who doesn’t have illusions that he deserves to be the Number 1 PG was a good move.
Bayless may not be impressing many people, he got off to a hot start and fizzled this season, but Jack would have been phoning in his performances by All Star weekend anyway…
"the Truth"
Interesting point
While injuries also factored in, things really did go off the rails without Jack backing up Jose. Jack was a huge part of the leadership on this club too, and with Evans out I’d argue that there was very little on-court poise in key situations. And I think that was reflected in so many blown fourth quarters this season.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 2, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
J Johnson
If we don’t get Barnes or Williams in the draft, I don’t mind giving Johnson a shot at starting SF. He could be a late bloomer and he has tonnes of speed and ups. Finally a three who is not overmatched athletically.
If we get Barnes or Williams then we move Johnson to the bench. But I still believe Johnson has huge upside and only needs to up his offence a bit more to be a true starter in this league.
One positive I see in James and Demar is they both need to work on shooting, which is something that they can improve with work, but they both have the required athletism to play their positions. Sorta the opposite of Kapono and Hedo, which is a good thing. You might throw Andrea into that second group as well. The three amigos (Andrea, Jason, Hedo) will never gain the athletism required to play Defence in this league. James and Demar might improve their shooting…“so you’re saying I (we) got a chance.” “Dumb and Dumber”
Solid point and I think we’ve seen DeMar’s progression already shooting-wise, which is a testament to the amount of work he’s put in. If Johnson can take a similar approach as DD, Sonny, Joey and Amir last year, ie, all spending huge chunks of time here working with the coaching staff, that’s a major plus for the following season.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 2, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
This article is a plea to help Jay Triano, the pole that you said you took about Triano is crafted in a way that regular people who watch every Raptor game would not ask. Anyways poles are for strippers. I took a pole and 90 out of 100 people thought both Colangelo and Triano should be gone.
The person who wrote this article is not all there, but their really not interested in bettering the raptors a much as covering the coaches tracks. I find it universally, heck cosmically unbelievable that someone would go through so much trouble to defend triano especially when they said, and I quote " In my opinion, he shouldn’t have been extended in the first place, but obviously the “Coach of the Year” award forced Colangelo’s hand."
So if the writer does not think that coach of the year recipient Sam Mitchell deserve to coach the Raptors what makes the moron think that Triano is worthy.
As far as the Bucks game went your are a liar, Bargnia did not score in first quarter and it was when James Johnson went to the bench and Barngia came back in that the lead evapourated. Nobody expects bargnia to be the best defender but what we expect is more than 0 effort everynight.
This is definetly a pr attempt to save face. Too bad the writer is using the same technique they use in Communist countries that makes people suffer by lying,stuffing ballets and forming irrevelant issues to devert concerns.
Bargnia does play too much with 0 defence. We all know defense is harder to play everythings a foul. the writer mentioned that bargnia play alot because of injuries yet jullian wright cant come off the bench even thought he play admirable when Sonny Weems got injured.
My question to the writer is do not respect the NBA and the process and the way they judge the achievement of Sam Mitchell COACH OF THE YEAR AWARD, and finally why should hard working fans except this process and your child like opinion in a multi-billion dollar industry. keep polishing the nob dude
This is definitely on the short list of all-time greatest comments I’ve read on this site. And for the record, I’m not a fan of Bargnia or Barngia.
Geoff Rahal
Author, RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Apr 1, 2011 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I was JUST thinking that Gerry!!
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 2, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
LOL
Gotta give it up for “Bargina” though. Not sure why no one has thought to combine Bargnani with Vagina before this. Props… As for the rest of it…
top 10 all time posts - great idea!
hey DS, that might be a fun way to end the season! Can you put a post up with the all-time great posts, like a Davey Letterman top 10 countdown?
We need some humor to end this miserable Charlie Brown season.
Call me mean spirited but...
It makes me smile when people get belligerent and rude on this site while struggling with spelling and grammar in the process.
Heard about a book the other day, about a future society in which members are considered intelligent, eccentric even, when they were able to string a sentence together. Texting had overpowered all other communication forms, books were page length only. In that respect, I think this comment is a sign of the times: in 50 years, who knows, this commenter may represent the best and brightest?
+1
Couldn’t agree more!
Geoff Rahal
Author, RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Apr 2, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd craft a well thought-out reply...
…if I could understand what the hell you were talking about.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 2, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
As far as the Bucks game went your are a liar, Bargnia did not score in first quarter and it was when James Johnson went to the bench and Barngia came back in that the lead evapourated.
Andrea left at 2:31 of the 1st Quarter, with 6 points (2-2 plus 2 free throws). The score was 26-16 for the Raptors. He returned with the Raptors up by 1 point. Need to check your facts, before you call someone a liar.
.
by RapthoseLeafs on Apr 3, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice work, Detective RapthoseLeafs!
Geoff Rahal
Author, RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Apr 3, 2011 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
See, here's something I love to point out...
For all of D-Stance’s ALLEGED Bargnani hate and bias… here he is celebrating the accuracy of someone defending Andrea…
Huh, it would seem the focus is more on being true to reality as opposed to “bashing” any one particular player…
Shocking…
"the Truth"
Wiz Win Again
Right now
1. Cavs 15 -60
2. T-Wolves 17 – 58 But losing to the Heat in the 4th quarter
Then
Wiz 19 – 56
Raptors 20 – 54
KIngs 21 – 53
Simply Frigging Amazing
Even with Calderon and Evans the Raptors have the second or third youngest team in the league and have no superstar like the Thunder have in KD.
People really don’t understand how important experience is to winning in the NBA.
Look at John Wall and the Wiz
Look at T. Evans, D. Cousins and the Wiz
Look at Love and Beasley and the T-Wolves
Even the Clippers have managed only nine more wins than the Raptors and they have Blake plus EJ (though he has been injured a lot)
Yes the Raptors were blown out in a number of games but they also lost a lot close games and a lot of that was no doubt due to inexperience.
Davis missed all of training camp and a month or more at the beginning of the season.
DeRozan now has just 2 plus seasons of post high school experience.
James Johnson has never really played meaningful minutes in the NBA before this season
Amir while he is in his 6th season this is the first season that he has started any number of meaningful games.
Bayless has very limited NBA experience
Bargnani has actually show some decent improvement as the season has gone along.
Does this team need additional really good pieces. Of course it does.
However, I really don’t know what people expected from Triano this season.
Growing pains only come with experience regardless of what field you are in, even as a blogger.
Add Irving and maybe one other regular rotation player and this group could become really good in about three seasons when all the key players will still be under 30 and most of them still under 25.
I look at this team, and I have no idea how it became the Clippers of the East – doomed to perpetual mediocrity, or how to bring it back to respectability.
BC was the darling, now he sucks. We had a coach of the year, who then seemed to get by on “shats”. We had a couple of good first round draft positions over the past 12 years, and everything has turned to smoke.
What would it take to get us back? no idea.
how long are fans expected to wait for this to improve? gotta say, following the Raps is like passing a smashup on the hi-way – feel terrible it happened, but can’t help my morbid curiosity to rubberneck anyway.
I was just thinking this morning...
…about how dangerously close we are to Clippers/Warriors futility (if we aren’t there already). 15+ years of relatively little success, we are in danger of becoming a perpetually losing franchise who once every ten years surpasses expectations only to fall completely off the map again next season (again, if we aren’t there already).
Playoffs
I just wanted to see what kind of response this headline would get.
Also, I think it is very important that the Raptors position themselves to make the playoffs next season. That should be the new goal next season and we should really push hard to make it. Our young players could really use the experience and it would build their confidence greatly.
And to reply to Posterized, we aren’t the Clips or Warriors. The Clips and Warriors both have players that every team would love to add to their lineups (Curry, Ellis, Griffin). We don’t.
But we do have youth and potential and next year will be the time to start realizing it. I hate the idea of people saying we will need another year of tanking and a high pick to pull out of this tailspin. Bull. We need accountability and effort next season and we can right this ship next season.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
NBA Playoffs Content Module
Related FanPosts on Raptors HQ
Related FanShots on Raptors HQ
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Shaquille O’Neal is in a Chinese beer commercial, too (VIDEO)
- ‘Deep Thoughts’ and Cheap Thoughts: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- C-a-C: This is probably as close to LeBron James working with John Waters as we’ll ever get
- Dwyane Wade’s hot pink pants: The kind of thing you can get away with when you drop 41
- Lamar Odom to New York? Dwight Howard on the move? For now, it’s all talk
