RaptorsHQ Sunday Poll - How Do You Feel About Toronto's Free Agency Moves?
by Adam Francis on Dec 11, 2011 12:00 PM EST
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PrintOk not Pietrus.
But the Raptors over the last 48 hours or so have been a pretty busy bunch, signing players to offer sheets and contracts, and filling out their 2011-12 roster.
There's not a Chris Paul among them, but as we've been noting, the moves Toronto has been making keeps them right on course for another top draft pick in about six months time, as well as providing baby steps in the defence and experience departments.
We're fans of the moves, but how about you?
This week's poll question asks for your take on the Dinos' decisions.
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Adam
If you would have stopped after “I am fine with them” and not added “but I expected more”, I would have voted for for that
Other Poll options:
1. Raptors? What about watching those Indiana Pacers? whoa! Larry Bird is tha man!
2. My brain hurts from trying to keep track of all the changes to the league and the changing team line-up’s. I want to cry, but all my tears dried up after last season….
Up in the skyscrape, me and my apes, bake cakes.
Love what the Pacers have done too…if they can field a Collison, George, Granger, West and Hibbert starting 5, with guys like Hansbrough, Jones, Foster and Hill off the bench, that’s pretty solid.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Dec 12, 2011 8:19 AM EST up reply actions
Not that I think he will be that great, but I hope that we get Forbes. In my eyes, his addition would make trading Barbosa even more viable.
Talkinf fantasy bball on twitter http://twitter.com/FinalsFantasy#
by JumpShootersRUS on Dec 11, 2011 12:36 PM EST reply actions
If the Clippers get Chris Paul, maybe the Celtics who are owed the Clippers pick this year (or the TWolves pick – whichever is a worse pick) would trade it to the Raptors along with Jermaine O’Neal expiring deal for Barbosa (also expiring).
Talkinf fantasy bball on twitter http://twitter.com/FinalsFantasy#
by JumpShootersRUS on Dec 12, 2011 7:53 AM EST up reply actions
Pretty crowded backcourt right now so I too wouldn’t be surprised to see Barbosa dealt.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Dec 12, 2011 8:19 AM EST up reply actions
Honestly
I am one of those who is waiting the 2012 draft but it has been a really long summer and winter without any meaningful basketball, the idea of waiting another full year is kind of … tiring…..
I meant NBA basketball
and I meant saying fall, not winter :)
5th option for the Poll
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I’m fine with them … let’s play hard … and 2012 draft will get here when it gets here – hopefully our balls come first …. lol.
.
Ha
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Dec 12, 2011 8:27 AM EST up reply actions
This year, a radical idea to play AB
If the Raptors can significantly improve their defence and allow younger players to assume larger roles, this season will be a success.
We “could” use the start of the season to give Leandro and Andrea lots of touches and shots. If Andrea can play 30 games averaging 20+pts and Leandro can get around 12 pts per game, we might be able to move them to a contender looking for scoring punch and get back young talent and or draft picks.
Those two assets need to go. AB for reasons previously discussed and Leandro because he doesn’t fit into our plans. But by playing them a lot and letting them build up their offensive stats it makes them more valuable on the market and it gives us a higher draft pick because we will lose more (especially AB) and we will get more back in a trade for said players, so it’s a win win.
I was talking about this idea with a fan the other day, the idea of trying to inflate Bargs’ value as much as possible and then deal him to clear even more cap room…not to mention all the other benefits of relocating him.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Dec 12, 2011 8:28 AM EST up reply actions
Amir
.
What’s the word on AJ’s ankle?
If his ankle isn’t 100% – as reports are saying – I can see more reason why BC is loading up on Bigs. Schedule is tight, so some players – like Demar & Andrea – could take a game off, on the 3 back-to-back game days.
this is what i was worried about.... add all that extra bodyweight on that ankle and I hope things don't become unpredictable.
I don’t understand why players aren’t pulled off the court when its clear they have an injury? They are asked to play through the pain, and unsurprisingly they develop a more complicated condition.
Asking these guys if they wan’t to play through the pain is also the wrong way to go. Chances are that they wont say no – it’s not in their DNA. It’s clear as day that there has got to be someone on the team staff that can step up and say that a player needs to be rested for however long it takes…. more than what the current ‘doctor’ arrangement says.
This needs to change. Not every NBA event is a game 6 or 7 in the play-offs.
Up in the skyscrape, me and my apes, bake cakes.
Last Season's Mistake
Asking these guys if they wan’t to play through the pain is also the wrong way to go.
One of my biggest complaints with last year, was seeing AJ play thru the pain. That “bravado” – as some like to define it – could come back to haunt him, and Toronto.
Raptors had nothing to gain, and everything to lose.
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by RapthoseLeafs on Dec 11, 2011 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
He Said It Was 95%
I think the key is how it felt this morning and whether or not there was any swelling.
Its not they were playing patty-cake during the practices. I am sure his left leg and ankle are still a little weak. There also could have been some scare tissue that he broke down,
Anyway it is all guess work on my part, but I think we will know more by tomorrow. I think it was a good sign that after practice he wasn’t on the trainer’s table but instead hoisting up jump shots.
Definitely bears watching. We can only hope for the best. Time will tell and it shouldn’t take too long to find out.
I think it was a good sign that after practice he wasn’t on the trainer’s table but instead hoisting up jump shots.
That feels like deja vu.
I gather from what Casey has said, that Amir will be brought in slowly. No point in rushing him in. That could work well, given that the Raptors have a number of assets that need testing.
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by RapthoseLeafs on Dec 11, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
It’ll be interesting to see what his mobility is like with this extra weight. Sometimes players cope with it fine on the way to using it to their advantage. (See Jermaine O’Neal.) Other times…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Dec 12, 2011 8:31 AM EST up reply actions
Personally I Would Like To See Amir Be Less Mobile
and play more on the court rather than above the rim.
In other words to turn into a skilled power player rather than an athletic weakling.
DD days off
He’s 22 years old. He can play three days in a row.
Andrea is 26 and manages his energy very well on Defence, so he should be fine as well.
Bargnani Can't Even Play Back to Backs
and be any good in the second game of back-to-backs.
If you look at his career splits his lowest PPG by far comes with zero days rest and his best by far with 2 days rest.
I don’t expect that to change this season or in any future season. He has been around long enough that this type of pattern is not going to change.
JMO
“…manages his energy very well on Defense…” LOL
However this is the same guy who missed a bunch of games for the flu – made sure he could play the Nets in Europe – and then missed ANOTHER bunch of games for the flu when they got back.
by MAS11 on Dec 11, 2011 3:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Big, big BIG Gray fan
I know he will do the team well.
I also know there are a few on this blog already saying things I am staggered by. It is as if they have never seen him play or in fact do not understand the miidle game.
I am looking forward to watching him learn this team and then continue his growth as an NBA big man.
IMO he is just about there.
Do not know that I would start him as yet…that would not be good.
Is anyone here familiar with the Hornet’s style verses the Raptor’s?
Is there any
thing familiar with them?
Or will Gray have to learn a totally different game here?
He is not a name player so it shouldn’t surprise you that people are not high on him. Besides, BC is like the Anti-Midas as he seems to take players after their usefulness is past.
Gray Will Help The Raptors
Solid defender and good enough rebounder.
How much time he gets remains to be seen.
In fact with respect to the 2011-12 there are more questions than answers.
By next week at this time the Raptors will have finished their first pre-season game.
they continue to do nothing
Again they tell us….wait until next year. How many times have we heard that? They need more than 1 good draft person in 2012…..but they won’t go out and get them. Soon, no one will care…..and the franchise will go the same way the Vancouver one went.
I want to watch a winning team…..will they ever win more the 35 games again?
What was the alternative here though? I agree that to a certain extent, BC dug this grave himself, but this is the best chance I’ve seen in half a decade at getting out….
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Dec 12, 2011 8:32 AM EST up reply actions
Winning Teams Are Boring
Not always but way too often.
Living in Los Angeles and having been a fan of the Pistons Going to Work Group I can tell you that winning gets boring pretty quickly
I like close games with hopefully my team winning but give me competitive exciting games any day over a blow out.
KY vs IU game this weekend was a pure join to watch for the true basketball fan.
The over the hill guys
I agree. BC always brings in guys who are well past their prime…..or D League guys. Or guys from Europe who can’t play against proven NBA guys.
just wish that I had
more time watching the Raptors than I did…
I have no clue, really, about the team or the style I am now going to be seeing.
I never miss a game.
So I look forward to the beginning of the season again…BUT just like Gray, I am about to take a crash course here.
I hope the learning curve for him is easier than for me!
You see…I tend to folow only certain players and NOT just teams.
In fact, I will refuse to watch teams because I think their players are punks or the teams themselves do not act with any care towards the community.
I know it is JUST a business, but I want some loyalty and humanity from both players and the organizations.
I want players who understand and respect the fact that they are simply the caretakers of the game today.
LEAVE it in the same, or better, condition than when you got it! I like owners and players that understand this. That the game is greater than they are.
Don’t ruin it.
And Gray is one of those knuckleheads that you just have to love because he is a certified good guy.
I like good guys….even if they are not the greatest players.
See this old link of mine from when Gray was a young Bull and you can see why I like this big kid…and he is really just that, a kid.
early gray video...
why i like this kid…
Bargs
There is a general tread on this blog to trade Bargs – some would be happy to get a couple practice balls back if somehow we could unload him. I just don’t get it. Yes, I’ve seen him play defence (or rather I’ve seen him on the floor when he should be playing defence). But I hate to state the rather painful observation – Bargs is our most talented player (not our best player, but most talented). And we sorely need talent.
I’ve seen the stats about how the team does better without him on the floor and the opposing players increase in stats when they play against him, etc. etc. etc. All very valid points, but the fact is our team doesn’t have enough talent to be good. So whether we would win an extra 3 or 4 games a year without Bargs on the floor is not the point. We need more talent and when the team has enough talent we need a coach who can use Bargs the right way and hide him on defence.
Trading away Bargs isn’t going to help the overall goal of becoming a contending team. We need talent and Bargs has it, more so than anyone else currently on our team. So unless we got equal or better talent in return -what’s the point. Keep what you have until you can surround him with better talent.
As I said, he is not our best player, but he is our most talented; and he certainly isn’t the “man” to lead this team out of our current doormat status. But win 22 games with him, or 27 games without him, we still suck. But give the team 2 or 3 more years, a few more talented players added, existing players growing their talent and I think we might be pleasantly surprised about how well Bargs can contribute to a good team; afterall talent is what wins in the NBA.
I think the point to trading Bargnani would be to get talent in return that is more suited to the direction that Toronto is trying to go. I have nothing against Bargnani, in fact I hope he has a good career in the NBA, but I don’t think that he suits the Raptors needs. With Ed, Jonas and Amir the Raptors have plenty of talented big men in various stages of development. With Gray, Alabi and Magloire they have some size and toughness, too. What they need is scoring and defense on the wings. DeRozan provides some scoring, but has yet to convince on defence. All the other wings in the organization are either role players or stopgaps. The point is also a question mark until Bayless proves himself. Calderon is fine for another season or two while the youngsters develop, but he is not the long term solution.
In summary, the reason for trading Bargnani is exactly because he is the Raptors most talented player. As such, he is the most likely to bring back useful parts such as draft picks or other young talent. That is the reason to trade Bargnani, moreso than sheer animosity towards him. There must be an optimistic GM out there who can imagine Bargnani as a part of his team’s future (other than Colangelo, that is).
I’ve seen the stats about how the team does better without him on the floor and the opposing players increase in stats when they play against him, etc.
Sorry – I’m still trying to reconcile this against your statement that “Bargs is our most talented player”.
I know some fans continue to struggle with the “he averages 20ppg so he HAS TO be good” concept. So let me help you out: Ed Davis, Amir Johnson, Jose Calderon… these are the most productive players on the Raptors’ roster. Bargs continues to be the least productive player in the entire league (let alone his own team).
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Dec 11, 2011 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
That is the biggest exaggeration I have heard. Least productive player in the league?
Sounds more like an emotional response than rational reasoning. If he is the least productive player in the league why is Alabi not starting over him?
It is really so interesting the divide he has created. People either love him or hate him.
Nope, if you look at advanced metrics, he was the worst player in the league last year based on overall production. In fact, he’s one of the worst to ever play in the NBA as evidenced here: http://wagesofwins.com/2011/07/28/trivia-baddest-of-the-bad/
They just adjusted the formula for Wins Produced and Bargs is STILL the worst by a large margin.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Dec 12, 2011 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
Here is my biggest problem with WP – It is completely conceivable to build a team that would net you -20 or more wins. A completely physical impossibility but a GM could conceivably do it.
not exactly
once a player changes teams (or a team changes players) so will the consumption of stats.
I remember having this discussion last year where if K.Love wasn’t on the Wolves they would have -10 (or something negative anyways) wins. Without Love there would be more rebounds, points, FTs, assists or what have you for other players.
Player(s) having a negative possible value should NOT be an impossibility. Any one player could or can, in theory, be replaced by another.
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 8:01 AM EST up reply actions
Ok here is where my issues begin….
Fabrico Oberto is ranked ahead of Brook Lopez.
Alex Ajinca is ranked ahead of Mo Williams (who is a former all-star on the best team in the NBA)
DeMarcus Cousins is the second worst behind Bargnani.
You claiming this stat is the be all and end all is like someone saying he averages 20points therefore he is good, one statistic doesn’t prove anything and thats all wins produced is.
Kris Humphries is ranked 17, Deron Williams 45 in Wins produced. Would anyone take Humphries ahead of Deron? If there is such an obvious flaw there it is safe to assume there is obvious flaws with the stat. To be compeltely honest the stat seems to link a players fit on the team more than anything, and does Bargnani fit with our group? Absolutely not which is why the numbers look so terrible. But to be honest does anyone really fit with the group of misfits we have assembled?
So lets stop trying to use stats to single out individual players and look at what htey bring to the floor. Bargnani is a stretch 4, who is good offensively and bad defensively. For him to be successful he needs to be surrounded by good defenders and a true C. Can he be a 3rd option on a good team, absolutely if he has good defenders around him. Plus we pay him like a 3rd option.
Realistic analysis?
Sorry, I’ll take the statistical model over somebody’s random opinion… especially when they toss out gems like this:
In his first season as the focal point of the offense, the former first overall pick flourished on that side of the court.
I guess usage and other factors didn’t come into consideration.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Dec 12, 2011 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
Bargnani is a 7 foot, 2 guard and his numbers paralleling Kobes just proves that. His assists are not there but a lot of other stats are.
“You claiming this stat is the be all and end all”
excuse me? When did I say that? When did ANYONE say that?
And WP looks at ‘production’ (as they see it) and not some random thought of how good someone ‘should be’ not how they should be ‘ranked’.
Would I take Deron over Humphries? Sure I would…. that has NOTHING to do with WP though. WP is not some sort of rank of how ‘good’ one player is vs another. Its not that at all.
So lets stop trying to single out stats as if they have no meaning because they don’t fit into one’s personal opinion on how good a player should be. The entire point of statistics is to give an unbiased reference to players.
You can look at any single advanced statistic out there and Bargnani still doesn’t exceed ‘average’. Unfortunately his usage is not average and his pay cheque is double the league average.
“Bargnani is a stretch 4, who is good offensively and bad defensively”
Bargnani is above average offensively (being generous here) and terrible defensively (again being generous… I would like to use pathetic, horrible, getting owned in the WNBA worthy but I won’t…..). Thats the problem. His offense does not outweight his complete lack of defense (or rebounding for that matter)
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
just because I imagine this phrase
“WP is not some sort of rank of how ‘good’ one player is vs another. Its not that at all”
will be attacked. I mean that in the sense of looking at Kris Humphries as better than Deron Williams, or Kevin Love is better than Lebron James, or Andrea Bargnani is worse than some random guy just called up from the d-league.
Its an idea of how much benifit a player has to their team, vs replacing them with someone else. Its an idea of how a player is being used or misused by their team. How much of one thing someone does well outweighs something else they do poorly.
Just looking at where a player stands in WP is using it wrong. Yes that may be the easy way to view it… but its not necessarily the right way. It needs to be viewed as how much production a player is giving the team… and Bargnani, atleast via WP, is giving this team the worst level of production, not only on the team but in the league.
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
To quote myself…
“To be compeltely honest the stat seems to link a players fit on the team more than anything, and does Bargnani fit with our group? Absolutely not which is why the numbers look so terrible. But to be honest does anyone really fit with the group of misfits we have assembled?”
and you replied….
Its an idea of how much benifit a player has to their team, vs replacing them with someone else. Its an idea of how a player is being used or misused by their team. How much of one thing someone does well outweighs something else they do poorly.
So the issue isn’t Bargnani himself but the team that we have assembled around him, if we had a group that covered his weaknesses and utilized his strengths than his Wins Produced would be increased. If thats the case then Bargnani himself isn’t the whole issue but the team we have assembled.
Trying something to fix the italics tag left open.
by dhackett1565 on Dec 12, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
you also indicated that people think WP is the ‘end all and be all’ of a players worth. That comparing Deron Williams vs Kris Humphries some how devalues the worth of WP as tool.
"To be compeltely honest the stat seems to link a players fit on the team more than anything, and does Bargnani fit with our group? Absolutely not which is why the numbers look so terrible. But to be honest does anyone really fit with the group of misfits we have assembled?"
Yes he doesn’t fit but he is also getting paid 10 mil dollars a year to not fit.
Bargnani’s role can be changed, his usage can change, his minutes can change, his position can change and that can all be reflected in his statistical value but his salary can’t. He’ll still make 10 mil a year (on average and increasing) regardless. And when its all said and done, that is the biggest problem.
If Bargnani was just another guy it would be easy to cut his minutes, bench him, trade him, waive him whatever. But at 10 mil a year you just can’t do that without creating an albatross of a contract and unnecessarily burdening the team for the next 3-4 years.
Bargnani either has to improve his production as a starter or be moved from this team or be a financial handcuff to the team
(thats not even getting into historical problem of him being a bad pick… which simply cannot be changed now)
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
the italics
was unintentional
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Only disagreement from me...
10mill is the biggest contract on the raptors however, Bargnani as a third option is pretty good even at 10mill. Look at all the competitive teams, they pay their third and 4th options a similar salary. So while he does have to improve, we have to accept he will not be ‘the guy’ and need to get someone in to be the guy and see how he fits in as a third option.
Yes he is our first option but thats becuse the rest of our roster is so weak. However, we don’t pay him like a first option on a championship team.
but this team
doesn’t have a 1st or 2nd option yet. Why are we already paying a ‘3rd option’ and then making the 1st and 2nd option fit with that 3rd option?
Its backwards team building. Its starting with the tires and building the rest of the car from there… instead of finding tires after the car is built.
Get that 1st option and build with that. The guys who should be kept are guys that can be built with, that fit any role. Not guys that only fit a certain role.
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
one more thing
“So the issue isn’t Bargnani himself but the team that we have assembled around him, if we had a group that covered his weaknesses and utilized his strengths than his Wins Produced would be increased. If thats the case then Bargnani himself isn’t the whole issue but the team we have assembled.”
so the ENTIRE team needs to be adjusted to fit Bargnani? How does that make any sense? They tried that last year and it was an utter failure. Doesn’t it make alot more sense for Bargnani to fit a team… especially when the team is rebuilding?
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
Well we have to go one way or the other, and if we see bargnani as our starting 4 then we do have to bring in pieces that will compliment him. Such as solid wing defender who can stretch the floor, and a defensive and reboudning oriented center.
what you are recommending is
building around Bargnani. That is treating Bargnani like a franchise player, even if you won’t call it that.
That is where we fundamentally disagree. Nothing should fit around Bargnani. Bargnani has to fit whats around him.
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
Yes it is, my opinion is more to the point of accepting what we have and what it brings to the table. There is a definite use for Bargnani, and we can either get rid of him or accept what he is and trying to bring in players.
No matter what happens we are going to have to try and bring in an elite player, why get rid of Bargnani when he can compliment that player. If we get rid of him than get the player we then have to find another 2nd or third option. Obviously it is backwards but this is where we are right now and we can’t ignore that. I am hoping Derozan develops and can become an elite wing, and that we get the #1 pick draft Drummond and have two blue chip bigs come into the league at the same time. Than we can ship Bargnani somewhere for a first rounder and trade exception but there has to be a plan.
However, even that relies on Derozan’s development, and getting the pick. If we get Barnes a player like Bargnani is ideal to partner with him because he stretches the floor and creates driving room for him and for Derozan. However, we than are still relying on JV to come in and fill the C.
If there is one thing we can agree on, this roster is a disaster, we have no idea who we are bulding around or how any of the pieces fit together. Probably why there are so many opinions.
"So lets stop trying to use stats to single out individual players and look at what htey bring to the floor."
How do you suggest we do this without any statistics/metrics. What will your mechanism of measurement be? “He’s not that bad because I think he’s not that bad”??? Sorry, I’ll stick with the objective measurements.
A combination of both, while numbers can give you an idea they aren’t everything.
If these are really objective than they shouldn’t have clear mistakes in them. Look at one team for example, Dallas, Dirk Nowitzki was the 4th player ranked in WP on Dallas, but was he not the most valuable?
Kobe was 4th in WP on the Lakers behind Gasol, Odom and Bynum, but who was the most valuable?
Amare Stoudamire was ranked 4th on players with the Knicks for the whole season, but 8th behind players who were there half the year. But he was being talked about as an MVP candidate.
Jennings is ranked 4th on the Bucks but without him they are playing Keyon Dooling.
John Wall is third on the Wizards behind Trevor Booker and McGee but without him the Wizards are at the bottom of the NBA.
My point is quite simple, if players like Kobe, Amare and Dirk who are MVP candidates but not even the best player according to WP, is there not a clear limitation to it? OBVIOUSLY!
So then you have to use common sense and realize the NBA is a league where offensive talent is important because you have to be able to score and he can do that. My argument isn’t ‘i think he is a good basketball play’. It is simple he is capable of scoring 20+points in the NBA, 7feet, can shoot the ball and put it on the floor. These are facts, he has also avg over a blk a game twice in his career so there is potential that his help defence can improve. That is a fact.
“My point is quite simple, if players like Kobe, Amare and Dirk who are MVP candidates but not even the best player according to WP, is there not a clear limitation to it? OBVIOUSLY”
read more on WP.
The entire reason for the statistic is too show how fans/gms/media etc overvalue scoring as the most important value for a player (thereby leading to MVPs, big contracts and allstar apperances).
What you see as a ‘clear limitation’ is actually exactly what the author is trying to prove.
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
There was no clear agenda in creation of the tool. The tool was created and the values assigned to the various statistics were correlated with wins. Then the results were viewed, which showed that certain things are overvalued, and that has become the message of the tool over time.
by dhackett1565 on Dec 12, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
The point was to show how overvalued scoring was, is that not an agenda? I’m not saying that they are wrong but there needs to be a combination of basketball in real life and statistics. Its the same reason there is a field of study called legal realism, the law is written down however, it changes depending on the judge and society values. Just like basketball has numbers but it is also a team sport, where role players like Tyson Chandler transform your team, but it doesn’t make them the most valuable.
“Consequently, it seems safe to assume that the statistics tracked for an individual player represent that player’s contribution to team success.”
This is actually a quote from there FAQ. Taking that into consideration takes away the value of team play. This isn’t Moneyball, this is basketball, where you have a serious impact on your teammates when you are on the floor and your strengths and weaknesses are affected by your teammates.
I expressed
it the wrong way. You are using the semantics of my statement (which I do admit was worded poorly) to give the impression that WP had an ‘agenda’.
The model was created first, the results came 2nd, the agenda was the result of the first two…. written in novel form.
Basketball may change over the years but the scoring system does not. 1 point is always 1 point. 1 rebound is always 1 rebound. 1 block is always 1 block. There is no theory to that… the only theory applies to how much value each of those hold. When you break all those numbers down over time you can give each action a reasonable value.
Stats only take away the value of team play if you allow them to. But individual players all make up part of the team and those individual player’s success or lack thereof also impacts the success of the team.
“This isn’t Moneyball, this is basketball, where you have a serious impact on your teammates when you are on the floor and your strengths and weaknesses are affected by your teammates.”
and that ends up being the entire point of stats… to see how much better or worse a team could be by doing things a different way. To see who is having the best or worst impact on the team.
If a team could exist in a vacuum and try any number of ideas and directions it would be easy for everyone to have a good team. But you can’t. There are only so many methods a team can reasonably try.
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
If this was over the phone the conversation would of take 10minuets. haha.
Obviosuly I agree with you, and I don’t disagree with the idea behind WP, just like everything in basketball it can not be taken as the ‘be all and end all’. They came up with this formula because too many people put values in PPG and PER, but just like we cannot judge a player based solely on those statistics we cannot judge a player based solely on WP.
It is a tool to see how a group of players work together and to be honest, this group of misfits we have is a disaster. However, that does not mean that players like Bargnani cannot be successful with the right teammates. A 20ppg scorer in the NBA is a good offensive player, very few guys are capable of doing that for a season. Does that mean he is an all-star? NO!!!!! Does WP mean he is a horrible player? NO!!!!
What is he? A 26 year older, 7 footer with range that is about to enter his prime and already has scored over 20ppg in a season. Do I understand why people are frustrated with him? Obviously so I am, however, to give him away (which seems to be the consenus), is dumb because this entire team is awful. I mean lets be honest….
Bayless, Derozan, Johnson, Johnson and Davis? That is the worst starting line up in the NBA BY FAR!!!! To be completely honest, I don’t think we could shoot the ball from outside the paint aside from Bayless. Derozan has worked on his game but lets just see what he can really do before we all celebrate and we don’t want to live or die with our front court shooting. And Bayless needs to run a team for a whole season before we can judge him.
and you are the only one saying
people are looking at it as the be all and end all of a player worth. No one else is saying that. Its a common misconception (specifically with Bargnani and stats)…. just because the tool is used doesn’t mean all decision making is based solely on the use of that tool.
At the same time, at some point, stats are the only unbiased evidence (using that loosely) when two people are debating an opinion. No matter how neutral one wants to believe they are, whether thats you or me or Mas or D-hack, we will always have some ‘preference’ in some fashion. That preference will end up influencing our opinion. Stats (atleast useful ones) don’t have that preference. They don’t care. They are just raw data summed up in an easy to read value.
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Since 2005-06
Dirk is "#2
Kobe is #4
Amare is #16
Since 2007-08 Leaders in Total Win Shares
1. Lebron
2. CP3
3. D12
4. Pau
5. Dirk
6. Kobe
12. Amare
Looks pretty accurate to me though you could argue Pau
One more point about this. Barney’s PER was 16.50 which I believe is above average and if you compare his actuals to Kobe, career wise their percentages are not far off (shooting, 3 pt and FT). Now we all know Barney is no Kobe but their simple numbers are not far off. Advance stats are just a tool (much like Bargnani) and you have to take them with a grain of salt sometimes. I know Bargnani is bad, we all do, but worst player in the NBA seems a bit of a stretch.
Struggle
is a subjective term.
Some people struggle to see anything good in him. Others struggle to ignore those struggles.
.
by RapthoseLeafs on Dec 11, 2011 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
Reggie To Return?
SpearsNBAYahoo Marc J. Spears
Raptors free agent forward Reggie Evans getting interest from Toronto, Portland, Boston and New Jersey, but nothing close.
26 minutes ago
We’re at 15 players – no more roster spots left if all current signings go as planned.
by dhackett1565 on Dec 11, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Say What?
Player movement is fluid.
Alabi is a no need period.
Alabi Is A Waste Of Money
Close to $1 million in annual salary.
I would much rather pay Reggie $1 – $2 million for one season than pay Alabi.
At least Reggie is good for interesting interviews and his locker room presences is worth more than Alabi in the D-League
I Am No Reggie Fan
But with Gray and Jonas coming next season I would rather have Reggie on the roster than Alabi.
In fact I can think of many free agents I would rather have on the roster than Alabi.
Sure, you prefer it. But I’d bet dollars to doughnuts Colangelo disagrees with you.
by dhackett1565 on Dec 11, 2011 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
Don't Eat Donuts
Not very healthy
I sure hope you don’t
How about dollars for Molson beer?
I do not understand why you hate Alabi so much. All you have said recently is you the Raps ditch him. What gives? Did he pee in your cheerios? Did Amir tweet that Alabi must go?
+1
Don’t get the Alabi hate. No difference between Alabi now, and Amir with Detroit after season one. Both had potential, neither impressed in any way after their rookie season.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Dec 12, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t think that Amir-Alabi is a useful comparison. Amir did a lot more in high school and then came straight to the NBA and unsurprisingly took a while to adapt. Alabi has been to college and has never really been a star at any level.
That aside, I also don’t understand the Alabi-hate from Buddahfan. The guy is being groomed to be a role player. He has good length, works hard and doesn’t seem to have any attitude issues. I can’t see any harm in developing him for a while longer to see if he turns into a useful player for the Raptors.
Alabi had only 5 years of bball experience before going to college if I remember correctly so his learning curve is going to longer as well. I was not trying to say Alabi is a potential All-star, just that ditching him after one season of limited action at the NBA level may be a bit of a stretch.
"No difference between Alabi now, and Amir with Detroit after season one."
Adam, you better duck! You’re about to get a Buddahfan nuclear strike package!
That Is Not True
Amir lit up the D-League his first season under Pistons contract and went on in his second year to become a D-League all-star and one of the top ranked D-League players of all-time at that time.
Alabi sucked in the D-League.
I Don't Hate Him
IMO he is just not nor ever will be a NBA player.
Raptors will always remain on the bottom
They keep promising….wait until next year….or wait until the next draft, etc, etc. But they might get 1 good player in the draft, but they won’t bring in the 2 other guys to help the team. 1 good player is not going to change anything…..we have seen that for years in the past with Carter, Bosh, etc. They need at least 3 proven NBA players…..otherwise they will always remain a development team for the rest of the NBA. Proven NBA players don’t want to come to Toronto anymore……they stink at best. But if they could get 3 of them to come at the same time…..then we would have a team that can win more than 22 games. But will Raptors ever spend the money to make this a competitive team??? The Fans are now staying away …..Attendance is dropping. Only the die hard suckers are going to the ACC……the rest of us want a winner…..now. No more BS stories about next year again!!
Interested to hear your solotion...
What would you do to make this team a winner now?
But
they really have 2 picks coming next year – one with some seasoning behind him. Plus they’ll have a substantial amount of cap space.
While I still belief it’ll be tough for a top free agent to come to Toronto – a premium fee will help – we can only hope BC will entice such a player, knowing they could be the alpha male on a young team with talent, a good coach, and a new ownership that’s not so cheap.
.
by RapthoseLeafs on Dec 11, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
Golden State withdraws their qualifying offer to Reggie Williams...
Guy is a 40% 3 point shooter…
"the Truth"
by Mikthaniel on Dec 11, 2011 7:47 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Last Season - .423
He made a 3 pointer every 16 minutes – or 3 per 48
Raptors averaged 4.2 per game – 2nd from the bottom.
.
by RapthoseLeafs on Dec 11, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
Harrison Barnes and Myck Kabongo 2012 Draft
If we came away with those 2 next yr we’d be well on our way to building this team.
Colangelo's #1 priority for the rest of the season...
Should be securing another first round pick. He’s got Barbosa and Bargnani as assets to make this happen.
for all here who think Gray was dumb....
THIS was THE dumbest of all transactions, IF it takes place!
From SheridanHoops:
Meanwhile, the rival Clippers are humming along in free agency. Having already poached Caron Butler from the Mavericks, they plan on matching the four-year, $40 million offer sheet the Golden State Warriors gave backup center DeAndre Jordan, according to ESPN’s Ric Bucher. "The Los Angeles Clippers plan to match the Golden State Warriors’ offer sheet of four years and $40 million for center DeAndre Jordan, a league source said, a move that will practically force starting center Chris Kaman to seek a trade elsewhere, according to a second source. A salary averaging $10 million annually is a breathtaking leap for a player who averaged seven points and seven rebounds last season, which was Jordan’s third in the NBA — for which he made less than $900,000.
So the Clippers will pay Jordan Bargnani-type money. Who would you rather have?
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Dec 11, 2011 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
haha
+1
I actually don’t mind Jordan, but this contract is completely based on ‘potential’…. and that is always a dangerous thing
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Dec 12, 2011 8:04 AM EST up reply actions
Jordan
Offer sheet is for 43 million (over 4 years) …. but why quibble over a few million.
.
DeAndre has great potential, but to choose between him and Bargnani, depends on what one needs – despite how you feel about him. If Clippers snag CP (his “apparent” secondary preferred destination), they’ll probably jettison Kaman – giving additional reason to match Jordan …. besides appeasing Griffin (and their close relationship).
.
Clippers would have more than enough scoring, hence the extra need to retain Jordan – for his defensive strength. Andrea – in this case – would not offer the same benefit to the team.
Adding Andrea to a team like the Magic, would provide far more benefit than Jordan.
by RapthoseLeafs on Dec 12, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
Don't get me wrong...
I am THE biggest Gray fan.
But this is tupid money here.
Gray and these good, but still not fully developed NBA centers are good at 5 million at tops.
God Blesss anybody getting anything they can…but this is what is wrong with the NBA.
We just had a lockout with owners hating other owners spending like drunken sailors, and yet they continue to do so.
This is stupid at 10 pus million a year!
Does a million mean anything anymore?
Gray earned 1.3 last year.
I am presumeing he signed for around 5 now.
BUT 10 MILLION!?
Puleeze!
I think alot of us actually like the Aaron Gray signing...
Up in the skyscrape, me and my apes, bake cakes.
Back to the lottery
I have no Yuge problems with these moves because the Raps clearly need a top lottery pick in order to rebuild. But I cannot understand how BC will keep a straight face when he talks about these crappy players with feeble lifetime stats as excellent “pieces” to the organization.
Tank it…
Signings
I am happy with the guys that the Raptors have added this offseason. The most useful thing the Raptors can do this year is to give minutes to the young guys that they are trying to develop. Signing any big names guys would have been counterproductive to that primary objective.
The second thing that I like about the signings is that they are mainly guys who have a bit of toughness, especially Gray, Magloire and Pietrus(if he comes). Whether or not they play a lot of minutes, they will set a tone in practice and should buy into coach Casey’s defensive principles.
Lastly, I don’t see any Turkoglu-style bad contracts which is a nice improvement. Hopefully, the Raptors can keep cleaning up their cap on the off-chance that they get their core to the point where an FA signing or two would help get them to the next level.
John Hollinger breaks down the signings...
Link (Insider)
Jamaal Magloire to Raptors for one year, vet’s minimum: Thumbs down
I get that the Raptors need size and that not everybody wants to play in Canada, but as with the Mason-to-Washington deal I just don’t understand how this has any prospect of putting them in a better position in the three-years-down-the-road window when they’ll be in a position to actually win something. You’d much prefer them to roll the dice on a young prospect with this money.
Anthony Carter, Aaron Gray and Rasual Butler to Raptors for one year, veteran’s minimum: Thumbs up on Carter and Gray; thumbs down on Butler
Let’s not plan the parade route in Toronto just yet, but I do like that the Raptors have effectively chosen to sit out this offseason and build for the future. Gray could play a role in Toronto’s next phase and could spare Andrea Bargnani a few beatings, while Carter is both a great clubhouse guy and a potential trade chip when teams inevitably get desperate for a veteran point guard at the trade deadline.
As for Butler, I really don’t get that one. He looked completely finished last season, and I would have rather seen the Raptors go younger with that roster spot.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Dec 11, 2011 10:35 PM EST reply actions
I gotta give it up to Hollinger – he pretty much nails the analysis.
Magloire and Butler = thumbs down… and a little WTF were they thinking in the case of Butler
Carter and Gray = thumbs up
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Dec 11, 2011 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
Butler was exactly like the Fred Jones signing. BC got caught with his britches down and decided to pen someone to fill a need. I am really indifferent to Butler’s signing because even if its for 3 years its still a minimal commitment to take a flyer on a replacement for Wright. I know you love Wright but for the minutes we are talking about doling out to that spot, anyone would do. I would have liked to see some different moves at that spot as well but who knows how expensive some of those moves would be. At least we do not have to worry about Butler ruining our draft position.
As for Magloire, its nothing more than a gesture to a player nearing the end of his career who was well respected in Miami and can hopefully at least provide some leadership to a team sorely lacking in it. Much like the Carter signing. He gets to play his final season (I am guessing here) at home and hopefully he can smack Barney around in practice a little.
As for Butler, I really don’t get that one. He looked completely finished last season, and I would have rather seen the Raptors go younger with that roster spot
And give those abundant minutes available to these younger guys, so we can turn them into Bayless/Johnson types .. pre-Raptor days. Butlers’ minutes will be minimal; we have enough young players – with minimum 2 more coming next year; and we need some veteran leadership.
For the most part, thiis addition is not worthy of even a Hollinger analysis. We need bodies – and this addition is just cognizant of one simple fact …. who wants to be a POB-type on a Raptor team – for this year at least. For Rasual, it’s a lottery chance at playing – the lottery chances improving if we have another injury filled year.
.
by RapthoseLeafs on Dec 12, 2011 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
Gray signing feels like they really want to see how Bargnani does at the 4.
May start to see how AB does against other starting 4s in the NBA and evaluate him from there. It may end up being a role like Araujo had, plays the first 4 minutes and then benched till half. Plays the first 4 minutes and then just benched.
Lets be honest, the Raptors have essentially waived the white flag this year, Colangelo said we would have to wait a year and he meant it. I really think the Raptors are the worst team in the NBA, the pieces don’t fit and the talent isn’t there.
I know alot of people are hoping for Barnes but I am hoping for Drummond and we swing Bargs for another 1st rounder. Drummond and JV the new twin towers?
FYI
Lets be honest, the Raptors have essentially waived the white flag this year
All our white flags are gone. They met the following fate:
1. One decided to sign with an OHL team.
2. BC offloaded one when he sent Printezis off.
3. One sufferred from Bargnani induced panic attacks and had to be retired prematurely.
4. The clippers wanted one when they traded for Hassan Adams…
Up in the skyscrape, me and my apes, bake cakes.
Lamar Odom
I know basically everyone on this board seems to be in favor of tanking this season. I would have liked to have BC take a run at Lamar as they could have offered the same thing except even a future lottery protected draft choice would have been better than what the Mavs would have been offering. The trade xception runs it’s course this week? Odom wouldn’t have meant much in terms of wins this year though could’ve been great for next year (and possibly beyond) or used in a future. trade. Why the Lakers would trade him to their biggest rivals makes no sense.
On the surface going for Odom might have made sense but there are a lot of problems. 1. He is way too much money to invest in at this point. $8.9 Million dollars is not a good investment when you already have 14 million (approx) invested in a position. 2. He would stunt the development of out young players. Davis is already getting jammed for minutes. Bringing in Odom would pretty much kill that. 3. I believe the Lakers got a 1st round pick from Dallas which they plan to include in a trade to get Howard. That may not happen but if the Raptors included their lottery pick, it certainly would. Even if the Raptors lottery protected, I do not like the idea of the Raptors facilitating Howards move to LA. Thanks, I am still upset about BC helping Miami land the big three, lets not go there again, at least so soon.
Lamar Odom was traded because he felt unwanted by the Lakers after the trade fell through.
Could you imagine how pissed off he would be if he got traded to Toronto? Do you think a guy who has been to the NBA finals 3 of the last 4 years wants to be part of the rebuilding process? It would of been a chemistry disaster for us.
being new here...
can we banter live while the games are played?
I enjoyed that with the blogs with New Orleans when watching Gray last year.
Some mean talk, but mostly lots of fun and live.
Yeah, we’ve always done that. There will be a discussion thread for each game, if we do what we’ve done in the past.
by dhackett1565 on Dec 12, 2011 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
Do you see what I see?
Not a European in the whole bunch….well, unless you count Guadaloupe as a French Territory…but let’s just call it Caribbean shall we….
15 - 16 - 17 - Its Only Training Camp
WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
Free agent forward Reggie Williams still talking to several teams, including Charlotte, Detroit, Sacramento, Denver, Toronto, sources say.
2 minutes ago
Now that there’s some concern that Forbes’ offer might get matched (see: D. Smith’s blog), I could see BC reaching out to Williams. Seems he wants a lot of wing depth. But if the Nuggets don’t match, I doubt this goes anywhere.
by dhackett1565 on Dec 12, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
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