Missing Chris Bosh Part II - If Not Andrea, Than Maybe Amir?
by Adam Francis on Sep 9, 2010 9:15 AM EDT
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Franchise expands on the offensive issues with replacing Chris Bosh, explains why Andrea probably can't do it alone, and nominates another current Raptor to help pick up the slack...
Our readers are just too good.
This week I wanted to take a look at the various ways that Chris Bosh's absence next season would impact the Toronto Raptors; starting with a basic scoring view, moving to the advanced metrics like efficiency behind that scoring, touching on things like rebounding, shot-blocking etc, and then finally concluding with the changes to the way the team played minus CB4.
However our Einsteining audience raced ahead and did a great job noting that yes, at face value the Toronto Raptors would be down 24 points per game, but in reality, because Bosh was such an efficient offensive player, it would be more than that.
As well, pace factored into things, and because we really don't know how this team will play next year (the assumption is "up-tempo," however as has been pointed out numerous times, if the team can't rebound then this idea could be somewhat null and void), it's tough to say for sure whether Bosh's offensive loss is even greater than that or not.
I'd like to go back to the offensive efficiency idea though for a moment as this is indeed a huge point.
As I noted in the comments section to my last post, would you rather have Ray Allen in his prime, or Allen Iverson? Both could put up big numbers offensively, however the two usually differed to a great deal in terms of how they went about getting said points.
Iverson of course was generally a volume shooter and while one of my favourite players of all time to watch, for him to get his 30 points, it usually took him 20+ shots.
Ray Allen on the other hand was usually the opposite, a silky-smooth offensive player who was especially deadly because he didn't need 30 shots to wreak havoc on a team's defence.
Chris Bosh falls into the latter category and this is one of the major issues with trying to replace him next season.
He posted a true shooting percentage of .592 last year, an impressive mark for a big man that played as many minutes as he did and had as high a usage mark as he had. For comparison's sake, other top NBA big men with similar minutes played and usage rates like Kevin Garnett and Pau Gasol had marks of .569 and .593 respectively. This put CB4 in a pretty solid class.
Let's then look at Andrea Bargnani, the player many expect to replace Bosh's scoring for the club next season.
Andrea's true-shooting percentage was .552, behind even DeMar DeRozan on the team last year. As the Arsenalist noted in his great breakdown of the "Can Andrea Replace Chris" situation this past Tuesday, Bargnani is simply not the extremely efficient offensive player that many believe him to be. Yes, his usage rate was a good chunk lower than Bosh's last year (28.7 for Bosh vs. 22.3 for Bargs), but they played almost essentially the same minutes (36 for Bosh, 35 for Bargs), and while Chris took 16.5 shots a game, Andrea wasn't that far behind taking a little over 14 himself.
And to give you a good idea of how Andrea's usage rate compares NBA-wide, his 22.3 mark is in line with or above players like Pau Gasol (21.4), Andrew Bogut (23.3), David West (24.0) and David Lee (23.8) - all top second (and at times, first) scoring options on their respective clubs. So I think it's hard to argue that "oh, Bargs didn't get enough touches last year" or that he was hard-done by on offense.
Which brings us back to their efficiency marks. Bosh shot just under 52% from the field last year while Bargnani shot 47%, hardly anything to write home about even factoring in his position.
And sadly, his 37.2% mark from beyond the arc was hardly better than Bosh either, who shot 36.4% himself.
Now, this isn't meant to be another "bash-Bargs post," but I think from these and other stats we see that it's going to be very tough to expect Andrea to completely replace Chris offensively. He's just not as efficient an offensive player, especially when you factor in Bosh's propensity to get to the free-throw line and convert while there.
And again, as Arsenalist noted in his post on the subject, this extends beyond just the offence.
Bosh and Bargnani are miles apart on metrics that examine overall impact on the court such as PER, Win Score, and Wins Produced.
Using NBA.com's "efficiency" marks, CB4 was the fourth most "efficient" player in the league last year behind only LeBron James, Kevin Durant and David Lee. Andrea? He was 61st.
PER?
Bosh was fourth again with a mark of 25.11, while Andrea didn't even rank in the top 100, finishing at 115 with a fairly pedestrian mark of 15.6. (The league average is 15.)
And I'm not even sure we want to look at win score or wins produced, which always view Bargs in a pretty harsh light.
Again, the point here is that to replace what Bosh did on the court, especially on offense, we can't just assume Bargnani will plug that gap - the stats just don't back it up.
However one player I didn't get a chance to talk about on Tuesday could go a long ways in terms of help Bargs fill the void left by CB4; Amir Johnson.
Amir had the team's highest true-shooting percentage last season, the team's highest effective field goal percentage, and was the team's best offensive rebounder statistically, all the while playing under 18 minutes a game. With increased minutes he should be able to help Bargs make up for some of what Bosh has taken to Miami in terms of O, however Amir will have to improve upon his 66% career free-throw average as well as his fouls per game rate. Projected over the 25 to 28 minutes I expect him to play each night based on last year's totals would mean averaging nearly 5 fouls a contest, which would then invariably impact his on-court effectiveness and playing time.
What's most promising however about Amir is how well he runs the pick-and-roll, especially the "roll" portion where much like Tyson Chandler's healthy days with Chris Paul in New Orleans, Johnson can simply dive to the rim, using his length and athleticism to put almost anything down in that vicinity.
Bosh was a great pick-and-roll player himself but I'd argue Johnson gives the team a different look in this respect, one that I've always argued is a much better complement down low to Andrea Bargnani's face-up game.
That's why strangely, one of the Raptors' least talented pure offensive players, is such a big key to the team's offensive success for me this coming season. Amir Johnson does the little things that make him not only such an efficient offensive player, but a solid complement to many of the team's other key pieces. He'll never be a double-team magnet, but it's his hustle, length and athleticism that will many times prevent teams from doubling other Raptors. In the same way that you don't want to leave a dead-eye shooter like Ray Allen open, you can't afford to not put a body on an Amir Johnson type underneath the basket.
As well, you can't discount how important Amir will be for iniating the offense thanks to his defensive rebounding and shot-blocking, and ability to get out on the break.
In this way, while I've titled this series of posts "Missing Chris Bosh," I think Raptors' fans should be looking at things from a different angle. From our analysis so far we've seen that it's simply not going to be possible to replace CB4 in his entirety, especially via one player.
But maybe that's fine.
The team didn't exactly tear through the NBA by leaning solely on Bosh through a good chunk of the past decade, so having a mix of Andrea Bargnanis and Amir Johnsons, and future talent (that is still I'd argue sorely needed) is probably the way to go, and the way the team should have gone a long time ago in fact.
It also once and for all will tear the curtains off of the whole "Bosh is holding such and such a player back" argument.
Now, there's no more excuses, and next season I truly feel fans will get to see just who is a keeper on this team, and who should join the Patrick O'Bryants and Pape Sows of Raptor lore.
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A couple of quotes from the above article that were very interesting:
"Andrea’s true-shooting percentage was .552, behind even DeMar DeRozan" and "And sadly, his 37.2% mark from beyond the arc was hardly better than Bosh either, who shot 36.4% himself."
These two points are just depressing. So Bargnani, who is supposedly an offensive magician, is more inefficient than DeRozan in what many have argued was a sub-par Rookie season. Furthermore, his supposed floor stretching 3 point shooting is barely better than Bosh’s was last year. I know that some will say, Bargnani took more of them, but please, this is supposed to be one of his strengths! A main reason for keeping him on the floor.
"PER? Bosh was fourth again with a mark of 25.11, while Andrea didn’t even rank in the top 100, finishing at 115 with a fairly pedestrian mark of 15.6."
Not even in the top 100 in terms of efficiency… Add all of this to his abhorrent rebounding and terrible defence and not only is Bargnani not a replacement for Bosh, I don’t know how any team can hope to be a true contender (even truly competitive) while Bargani is your starting centre.
Jay Triano will probably have to re-arrange player-positioning on the court. In order to increase Andrea’s productivity on the court he will have to be in the post 60-70% of the time. I think that we will see a team next year that relies less on feeding one-player and more on ball movement.
On the defensive end, you’re probably right with your assessment of Andrea’s lack of rebounding and defense. Amir will have a heavy responsibility of being that weak-side defender most nights.
Not sure if a change of offensive strategy will be the panacea for Bargnani’s offensive issues. I won’t rule it out, you could be right. However, I would argue, that as currently constructed teams are going to be able to really key in on Bargnani. It could be even MORE difficult for Bargnani to get his offensive game without a Chris Bosh attracting so much attention… And regarding post-play, the funny thing is, that is not supposed to be his strength, therefore the jury is still out if he will be more effective there. His strength is supposed to be outside shooting, which as Franchise has analysed above, is not very good. I keep coming back to the question, if his D is terrible, his rebounding is virtualy non-existant and his offensive game is not verry effective/efficient, why does he deserve to be on the court?
“His strength is supposed to be outside shooting, which as Franchise has analysed above, is not very good.”
Whoa, whoa, whoa! 37% from downtown represents an offensive rating of 112 while he is taking a 3pt shot. That’s pretty darn great actually. You can say a lot of things about Bargs but you can’t say he isn’t a good 3-point shooter.
by dhackett1565 on Sep 9, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Very true… I never really thought about teams closing in on him or facing any sort of pressure. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to double-teams. I can’t really come up with a decent response to your question because I feel that in order to warrant starter minutes you need to play both sides of the court. Jay Triano’s poor tactics are really on display when he rewards players with extended minutes when they underperfom on a regular basis.
Unfortunately, the last coach who dared bring Bargnani off the bench for his lack of reliability got fired so you do not really expect (or blame) Triano for playing AB?
Personally I think Bargs is going to struggle without Bosh this year. I think he relied a lot on the attention CB4 got defensively to get his open looks, and I think last year we saw that with Bosh out. (Even though it was only a small sample size.)
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 10, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Bosh was 8-22 from the 3-point line. That there is a small sample size if ever there was one.
Bosh’s career 3pt percentage is .298, Bargnani’s is .376.
Also, DeRozan was the fifth option whenever he was on the court. He was the guy opposing defenses left open. The ‘sub-par’ rookie season has more to do with his lack of touches or willingness to give the ball away, rather than attack himself. When he took a shot, he hit a lot of them. A TS% that high is not bad.
As for ‘adding in’ his awful rebounding to stats like PER and win shares… they already take awful rebounding into account, and a big reason his ratings are so low is because of his rebounding – so no reason to count that twice ;)
by dhackett1565 on Sep 9, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
As i commented above, I know someone would try and make the volume case to the Bosh vs. bargani 3pt shooting. The comparison to Bosh is only an illustration. My point is a 37.7 percent 3 point shooting percentage (which is not other worldly) doesn’t – in my books -make up for terrible defence and rebounding, which is reflected in his PER numbers.Furthermore, Bargani’s volume of 3 point shooting actually negatively impacts his team as when he does this he is not in position to offensive rebound and he is not drawing fouls. This leaves a big gap for the team as these are roles usually performed by a centre.
What it boils down to is that Bargnani is often afforded slack on his terrible defence/rebounding because of his offensive skills. Well based on the PER stats and offensive efficiency stats, I would argue that his offense isn’t good enough to cover up his other shortcomings, so why afford him any slack at all and consequently, why the extended contract and playing time?
I am no Bargnani-lover, but as long as we are throwing stats around in the context of who replaces Bosh’s offence here are a few more for consideration:
Regards 3-pt shooting:
- Bargnani’s 3-pt attempts per 36 are down by 30% from his first year in the league to last year. His career average is .376, which as every knows is comparable to shooting .564 on two’s.
- Bosh’s 3pt% has been as low as 0% in a season and his career average is below 30%
Regarding FTs:
- Bargnani shoots FTs better for his career than Bosh(.815 vs. .796). He is just nowhere near as good at getting to the line.
Advanced stats:
- Bargnani’s usage has been 22.x% every season of his career. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue.
- While Bosh’s TS% was better as stated above, his eFG% was fractionally worse than Bargnani (.523 vs .522)
- Everyone agrees Bargnani sucks on the boards, and his TRB% of 10.4 confirms it. He has been inching up in that category, which won’t cut it. He needs to take a big step.
- Bosh has been very consistent in terms of turning the ball over at a 10-11% rate throughout his career(you have to bet that goes down in Miami). Bargnani was slightly better than that last season 9%. For the sake of the Raps he better maintain or improve that this year.
Let's not forget
Bosh usually turned the ball over when he was double or triple teamed because no one else demanded much attention. The point I am trying to make is that when Bargnani becomes the focal point, he will command more attention from defenses. The fact that he doesn’t get fouled attacking the basket, and tends to shoot more is only going to hurt him in the long run.
I agree with most of your points. I’d say that a lot of Bosh’s turnovers came when he tended to force things rather than looking for a pass. That worked sometimes, but other times it led to turnovers. Bargnani is less likely to do that(he is less aggressive in general), but he is also less likely to carry the team on his back the way that Bosh often did.
Great overview DW19 between Bosh and Bargs – just the facts.
Glad you pointed out the free-throw percentage situation too because it shows how much more efficient Bargs could be offensively if he used his quickness advantage against other 5’s, to get to the line a lot more.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 10, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
What it boils down to is that Bargnani is often afforded slack on his terrible defence/rebounding because of his offensive skills. Well based on the PER stats and offensive efficiency stats, I would argue that his offense isn’t good enough to cover up his other shortcomings, so why afford him any slack at all and consequently, why the extended contract and playing time?
MAS11 – isn’t it interesting that this comment you made about Bargnani, could have been applied to the entire team last year? Really good offensively, but not good enough to cover the defensive woes?
Just an interesting observation and one I hope BC notes going forward.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 10, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Bosh’s hits from 3 were almost all important shots (near the end of close games) last year (remember the Laker game) AB just hasn’t shown the ability to hit “good” threes. Until he does we as fans have every right to question his 3 point shooting ability especially now that he is supposed to carry the offense.
strike one
sorry McGateway you have used up one of the three BS one is allowed to say in any given month.
Bargs hits late game threes all the time.
Bosh hit only 2 three-pointers after the first 7 games of the season.
by dhackett1565 on Sep 10, 2010 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I simply meant that I do not recall him hitting those threes at the end of games. I fully acknowledge that is easier to remember Bosh’s hits because he takes so few threes but I just do not remember a single instance where Bargnani hit a 3 to either tie the game late or win a game.
not that i love bargs
but i fully remember him making very important threes late in games which got the crowd going and the score close. now i know your going to ask “oh which games were they exactly?” i dont remember as i did watch 82 games last season, but bargs has made crucial shots, just like bosh. actually i do remember bargs hitting a bunch of threes in one quarter i think the 3rd or 4th which obviously got the score close and gave the raps hope in getting back in the game and winning, i believe it was against denver. but of course, you dont remember bargs doing anything well on this team.
Glad the 3 point sample size for Bosh was brought up.
Yes, Bosh for his career was hardly Chuck Person, but I think the point I was trying to make was that by last year, he was hitting even the few he took at a pretty good clip, especially for someone who arguably had no business taking them in the first place.
I do think Andrea’s a good 3-point shooter, and this makes him valuable especially at his position, but to me that’s a weapon amongst many in an offensive arsenal, not a trait of a go-to guy, especially considering the other flaws offensively that we’ve discussed.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 10, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Bosh had no business taking threes? Remember, when he came into the league, the 3-point shot was definitely part of his arsenal. It was only in his third year that he moved away from taking them, and focused on his mid-range game (which became so lethal).
Agree about Bargs needing to expand his offensive game – I think he has the ability to do pretty much whatever he wants when guarded by centres – just needs to have the desire to be aggressive and draw fouls and get high quality shots far more often.
Although, I would say that some of the most clutch go-to guys in the league rely on having a solid 3-point game for those last second heroics (Bryant, as an example).
by dhackett1565 on Sep 10, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think too much of Bargnani, but he does get the short end of the stick in general when things are said like:
He shoots 47% from the field vs. Bosh’s higher FG% and that Bosh’s 3P% is close to Bargnani’s.
- Taking more 3s naturally decreases your FG% unless you are the rare case that shoots higher from 3. And Bosh is nowhere near as good as Andrea at shooting 3s – though he did manage to hit on a decently high % last year on a low number of attempts it is something that is “nice” but not particularly noteworthy.
Also that he is more inefficient than Derozan. Technically, I suppose he would be. But contextually, Derozan was paid very little attention defensively. He often had open corner 3s which he turned into long 2s. The efficiency was decent but he was not a particularly effective offensive player given the quality of chances he was set up with.
Ha – sort of inevitable I suppose in the context of the “who replaces Bosh” discussion…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 10, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Last year Ray Allen had a 36.3% from behind the arc; so we can claim that Bosh is as good as a 3 point shooter as Ray Allen just because he has a better percentage!!
That is always the danger of over using stats to back any argument because sometimes you have to use common sense to balance them. As Mark Twain once said, " there are three types of lies, Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics". Obviously Ray Allen is a better three point shooter than Bosh or Bargs. The issue with Bargnani is that he still hasn’t proven he can effectively carry this team offensively for even a small stretch of time let alone the next few years.
Hustle n' Grit = Amir
Amir made a tremendous impact on the Raptors last season. It was easy to see that he played at a high-level game in – game out. I’m looking forward to seeing him as a starter this upcoming season.
We cannot discount the chemistry that Amir developed with Calderon coming off the bench. Oftentimes, pick and rolls were setup by Calderon. I won’t rule out Jack developing chemistry with Amir, but Calderon-Amir connection shouldn’t be ruled out.
Franchise you’re right about Amir’s tendency to get quick fouls. I’m fearful that this might be the Raptors unduing in close games when they need a defensive stop and Amir is in foul trouble (or fouled out). Also, I’m hoping that the Raptors can swing a deal to trade Reggie Evans. I think that having two hustlers on the Raptors is a tad bit redundant.
About Evans… I expect he will be moved at the deadline as an expiring contract, and until then will be used sparingly as a C/PF who can provide 6 fouls or to fill in if there is an injury to Bargnani or Johnson, leaving a lot of minutes at the C/PF spots (especially C).
by dhackett1565 on Sep 9, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d expect to see Ed Davis as Johnson’s primary backup by the end of the season. He should provide a lot of the same ingredients(hustle, defense, aggressiveness), although it may take him a few months to get up to speed. Davis supposedly has good instincts and pretty good defensive fundamentals. I sincerely hope that he is as advertised.
Totally agree – Davis will get lots of chances by the end of season.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 10, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Some things
Would this not be the best time in Raptors history to actually adopt a Euro-ball approach, predicated on ball movement and multiple sets? If Triano insists on modeling after an existing NBA system then Utah would be the best to mimic, given that they have been able to stay competitive despite never having super star talent outside of 1 position post Stockton and Malone, and their key pieces beyond PG have attributes very similar to the Raptors pieces. It will actually be interesting to see how they do this year. I could see Amir having a Boozer type arrival given increased responsibilities, and the unknown of Ed Davis, especially defensively, is intriguing. I was going to suggest that they might have better frontcourt depth than they’ve had in some time but I’m not going to do that until I see some games.
Can someone inform me as to how Chris Kaman was perceived in his early career and would it be too much of a stretch to imagine Bargnani experiencing a late bloom like so many other bigs of past and recent memory (Kaman, Bogut, Smits, etc.) That is why the incessant criticisms are a bit misguided. If after this year nothing, then yeah, I get the bashing, but really, let the games be played.
I think the one question that isn’t being asked enough is just how much better will this team be defensively? Will that defensive improvement allow enough of an offset for Bosh’s absence?
One thing I hope happens is that no one comes in thinking they are a star and that the staff doesn’t go out of their way to cater to one or two personalities at the expense of everyone else. If the team comes in with everyone on even ground, it will very much translate to how the team plays.
Also..is this one of the first years where wing depth might not be as much of a problem as it’s been in the past. DeRozan, Weems, Kleiza, Barbosa, although not “marquee” names, are more than competent wing players (two of them having each scored 40 in a game before). If anticipated improvements happen, could this be the best wing rotation the team has had..ever? Add in specialist like Wright and you will see that it is not as much about replacing Bosh per se, but redistributing the offense/defense so that Bosh’s loss is minimized.
All of us seem to forget that in the Bosh/Bargnani era the Raptors were a “weird” team in that a majority of their offense came from the C/PF position. This did not translate into a consistent winning team. This year I see the structure of the team being more normal for this era of basketball, as in the post players help set things up, clear space for the wings to do most of the scoring.
It will be interesting
Happiness is that which gets lost in the details of its pursuit.
The problem with references/comparisons of Bargnani to Kaman/Bogut et al is that while yes, there is a parallel with the "late blooming effect" – only in that Bargnani has not yet bloomed – there is no evidence yet (now in year 5) that Bargnani possesses the fundamental skills required to become a good centre in the NBA. For example, both Kaman and Bogut had previous evidence of rebounding skills before their offense "broke out" both on the collegiate level and their early years in the NBA. I’ve seen no evidence whatsoever that Bargani will ever be able to be a decent rebounder in this league
I think you are over-rating the wings a bit if you think they are even close to Carter-McGrady. Nonetheless, a little optimism is always refreshing.
One thing that will be great to see this year is a team where not every player is an offensive player first. The Raptors best squads had a mix of offensive(Carter, McGrady), defensive(Davis, Oakley, Camby) and two-way(early-Peterson, Christie, Williams) players.
Prediction
This team will blow something fierce next season. I appreciate the optimism and the detailed breakdowns. I disagree completely about the comments that we do not need to replace Bosh, just redistribute the offense. Bosh was an attention getter last year, and despite this attention with no real second option to pass to, he posted very respectable efficiency numbers (as indicated by the post).
This team will have a ridiculous time trying to score against any decent defense, because the opposition will not have to double team any one. Especially with Triano running the show, I think we are in for an ugly one.
fingers crossed
I can’t really make a factual argument to disagree that this year will be tough, but I don’t believe paying Bosh the max was the answer either. Davis was a great pickup, Demar was only drafted for future potential and hopefully he will start to show it…there are some good pieces on this team.
The key to me is Andrea. All you naysayers out there have a point about his defence and rebounding, but you have failed to recognize that he has improved every year. He looks even bigger and stronger this year than last, again, and hopefully he will improve again. He has not had a breakout season, but he has improved every year. If he gets 3 or 4 more points a game and adds 1 or 2 rebounds per, he will all of a sudden be close to a twenty and ten guy. If he shoots 47% and 37% from three and gets 20 points a game and has 8 rebounds, he would be one of the most effective centers in the league. He also has improved his shot blocking a lot.
So, he may have come here too soft, he may not be perfectly suited to the NBA game, but he has adopted and improved each season. This year is really a put up or shut up year for Andrea. Is he a top quality starter worthy of the first pick or is he a skilled role player? Time will tell, but given his history of improving a bit each year, I still believe he will improve this year over last. And with a bit more improvement he could become a dominant player. Yes, to me a centre who averages over 20 pts and 8 rebounds and shoots the three at close to 40% and whose fg% is at 50% is a dominant player.
by defensive rap on Sep 9, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought we had a 20 and 10 guy...
and when we did, the issue coming from alot of people was that he wasn’t a “leader”. Although he was very vocal and supportive, he couldn’t “lead” a mediocre team to the playoffs. Now, best cased scenario Andrea turns into a 20 and 10 guy, are we not back to square one? (Minus the “minimal leadership” Bosh had, to be replaced with a guy who can barely speak english). And if Andrea gets to this point, how much do you think he will demand ala pay cheque? How much is he making now?
I do think we have some good young guys, who would have developed just as well with Bosh on the team. I understand that Bosh is gone and thats that, I just feel like the team is going backwards with Andrea, just to hope one day that he turns into a Chris Bosh type player.
Even if Andrea some day posts similar numbers to Bosh he will be a very different player. Bosh is a guy who has figured out what he can do well and does it. Bargnani is a guy who is still trying to put the pieces together. He looks like he has sky-high potential, but in the end I think he will always be a little inconsistent. Not as bad as a guy like Turkoglu, but nowhere near the consistency of a Bosh.
If we are talking physical potential, then very high. He is tall and agile. He has good body control, a good shooting touch, a strong lower body and an ok upper body. Normally those would be the right ingredients for a very high calibre big man. The problem is that he has a terrible bball IQ on defense, not the greatest lateral movement, so-so shot selection and most fatally a lack of aggressiveness when fighting for rebounds. On top of those things, he tends to be inconsistent. When he came into the league his potential seemed really high because people assumed that on the mental side of things he would improve and that his aggressiveness would increase as he became acclimatized to the NBA. Four years in that seems a lot less likely. It seems his lack of aggressiveness stems more from passivity/laziness/slowness than from fear or lack of familiarity.
Still, given Bargnani’s pluses(shooting touch, reasonable handles, size, decent attitude) he should be able to be a useful player. I would argue that the key is for the coaches not to get carried away imagining all the things that he might be able to do. They need to restrict his focus to a relative few specific things and focus him in on that. On offense, he should play in the high or low post and only take 3s as a trailer on the break or if someone like Kleiza has taken his man down low and Bargnani has leaked out to Kleiza’s position on the perimeter. In terms of double teams, when you see one move the ball. On defense, guard your man, box him out, let Johnson, Davis or someone with more a clue worry about helping. On the boards, get the ball at all cost. Keeping it simple should be the watchword with Bargnani in order to get the most out of him, whatever his potential may be.
Triano
I am more concerned about our coaches ability to lead. He needs to be our most improved Raptor this season.
He seemed completely oblivious to 2 for 1 opportunities at the end of quarters last season and struggled to assert himself has our leader. Come on Jay, step up and make quick, aggressive decisions. He seemed to be out coached several times last season but I can’t think of one time he won us a game.
He also has to improve his dealings with the refs. He whines at the wrong times and instead he should have shown more anger and less tears.
The only hope I have for him is I do believe he is a smart guy and he can learn and improve.
by defensive rap on Sep 9, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that Triano has room to improve. I think he did make some smart decisions last season, but he can do more. Simplify the defense and make it more effective. That should be goal number one. Goal number two is to get consistency out of the youngsters and Bargnani. Goal number three is to keep the young guys from developing bad habits during what may be a trying season.
Comparing Bosh to Bargnani in terms of 3pt shooting is sheer nonsense
Look, Bargs is not the player Bosh is nor will he ever be. But this looking for every opportunity to knock Bargs down is getting so boring. To suggest that Bosh is in Bargs league from a 3 point shooting standpoint is just silly. With such a small sample (22 3-point attempts), numbers can get wacky. As dhacket pointed out, just look at Bosh’s career numbers. Furthermore, Bosh started the season 6 for 6. Over the last 75 games of the year, he was 2 for 16 or 12.5%.
Another nice game by Kleiza today
17 points and 9 rebounds (game high) as Lithuania walloped Argentina.
Thats the guy to watch.......
Just like what I read from this guy. Sounds like he has got something to prove to himself.
Bargnani and this year
I think it should be pointed out that a big reason why Andrea was either 1) under the basket; or more regularily 2) camped out at the 3 pt. line; is because Chris Bosh usually occupied the high post. To give Bosh room and not impact spacing, Andrea had to be away from him. The most logical places for Andrea to go within the confines of the offense were 1) under the basket and 2) the 3pt. line.
This year, Bosh is no longer occupying the high post. Since nobody else has been brought in to take over that spot in the offense, my guess is that is where you will see alot of Andrea this year, with Johnson or Davis working the post. This in turn should result in Andrea taking less 3’s and more importantly less of those “one-bounce and chuck up a laser beam” jumpshots that we’ve seen alot in past years. His percentages should rise on this alone, and he could be a real threat given his ability to handle the ball and blow by larger defenders. My big question is if he can handle the double teams that will surely come if he becomes effective. He’s struggled with it in the games where Bosh was injured, so hopefully he’s a quick learner.
A Bosh-less team
The team didn’t exactly tear through the NBA by leaning solely on Bosh through a good chunk of the past decade, so having a mix of Andrea Bargnanis and Amir Johnsons, and future talent (that is still I’d argue sorely needed) is probably the way to go, and the way the team should have gone a long time ago in fact.
Great statement Franchise. And I agree that Amir is a wild card, when it comes to replacing CB’s numbers. With the addition of Davis, I actually think our rebounding numbers will improve – part of that thinking is a hope that Andrea can add an extra 1.5 Rbs. to his totals (20 & 7.5 would be fine by me).
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This Raptor version will certainly test us, but I like the direction. The growing pains may inflict a lot of agony on us fans, but at least I feel enthusiastic once again. No more wondering … “Will he stay, or will he go”. In some respects, it’s been a long wait for this reboot.
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I think we're having problems visualizing a Boshless offense
And that’s why this argument really won’t go anywhere useful until we see what type of offense the team chooses to run. An offense designed around your team’s focal point for the last six years will definitely be restructured when that focal point is not there to be relied on. It makes little sense to envision them running the exact same thing with the pieces being different.
Franchise — the Bosh/Bargnani 3 pt shooting comparison was so much of a stretch I thought you were joking. It really took away from the balance of the piece.
Happiness is that which gets lost in the details of its pursuit.
True let's wait and see the games...
However, I am not having problems visualizing a Boshless offense. It will be worse. Significantly worse. I will wager real money with anyone who wants to dispute this.
Considering the offense last year was fantastic… of course it will be worse. But so long as its not devastatingly worse, the team will be ok. Of course, we won’t know how much worse it will be until the season…
by dhackett1565 on Sep 10, 2010 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Some of today’s Forum Post ... ... (or ones that carried over from yesterday)
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Raptors Republic – “Bargnani unlikely to benefit from Bosh’s exit”
Raptor Blog (S.C.) – “Will there really be more rebounds available for Bargnani next season?”
Raptors HQ – “Missing Chris Bosh Part II – If Not Andrea, Than Maybe Amir?”
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And 262 comments – Wow!
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As Wolfgang (German soldier) from Laugh-In would say: “Verrry interesting”
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Amir
I love this guys game and I really would like to see him step up this year and succeed. That is all…
Staying on the floor
Will be key for Amir. Refs call be reputation. Will take his knocks. This is the year for Amir, to determine what kind of player he can be in this league.
Also a big year for Demar. Sure sounds like he has put in the hours this offseason. Am really rooting for him.
While I think asking anymore of Andrea, at year five, is wishfull thinking, I have always stated that him and CB4 were the wrong combo. Never felt he was comfortable beside Bosh. Don’t ever see him as a leader, but maybe he becomes more a part of the team(sniff, sniff).
Davis will see his fair share of minutes. Reviews are about as NBA ready as most of the lottery picks. Just hoping he carries his weight, and shows he can compete in this league. Think he’s got a good head and will work on his weaknesses.
Thats a lot of intangibles. If things go right with these four(or three) maybe we can surprise a few.
nonsense
Trues shooting percentage is meaningless ( invented to make players who can’t shoot look better ) and Bosh’s 51% from the floor is not good at all for a guy at his position.
Bargnani shot 47%, but shot over 4 threes per game while Bosh shot only 0.3 so any comparison is ludicrous ( 0.3 per game is statistically useless ).
I’m not saying that Bargnani is a beter player, but reasons given here why he’s not make absolutely no sense. Bosh was a go to guy, the whole offense revolved around him and his stats showed that, that’s all. If Bargnani is given the same freedom and things are designed to make him score as much then we’ll find out, and only then.
Whether he’ll turn out to be a bust who knows. Bosh did , despite all his stats he disappeared when he was needed the most. Padding your stats is one thing, making the playoffs and winning there is something different and Bosh as the main go to guy should take the most blame for Raptors’ failures.
-1
The title to that comment was the most accurate part. Bosh was a bust? He padded his stats?
This whole post was dedicated to how the Raptors will replace his “padded stats” which were responsible for the very few wins the Raptors got last year. If he didn’t pad his stats how would the raptors have won any games last year? Their stifling defense? If Andrea averages 24 PPG next season, will you call him a stat padder?
Do people really think like this?
I’m fairly optimistic about the coming season’s talent level… However, it is pretty much impossible to deny that Bosh was responsible for the Raps success last year.
Maybe a more free-flowing or running system gets more out of our offense, and makes it more watchable, and maybe the defense improves through implementation of a new system and better defensive players, and maybe it all turns out to make for a better team than we had last year. Maybe. Unlikely, but possible.
But. In no way is losing Bosh an ‘addition by subtraction.’ If there is any improvement, it will be due to internal improvements, new additions, new systems, and better defense, in SPITE of Bosh leaving, and certainly not because of him leaving. I can’t believe anyone actually thinks this.
by dhackett1565 on Sep 10, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
-2 This season will truely be a reckoning for a lot of Raptors Fans...
It’s going to be interesting to see the posts at season’s end this year when all of the following will have transpired:
- Bosh’s offensive input will be missed so dearly that the Raptors will drop from top half of the NBA to bottom half
- Barganin may add a few points to his PPG stat, but his rebounding and defense will be static (meaning still terrible) and he will still be an in-efficient player overall
- The Raptors lose 50+ games
get a clue
How is grabbing rebounds, getting to the line, and scoring padding your stats?
Did you read the article Bosh took about two more shots a game than Bargs. Are you Bargs supporter just Italians that back him and trash Bosh because you’re is a fellow Italian?
Don't make it an Italian thing
I’m a Canadian-Italian and I’ll be the first to bash Bargs every chance I get. Not because I don’t like him personally, I just don’t like soft big men who don’t rebound and play small. To me it’s playing to his own disadvantages. He is tall and long yet he scores most of his points outside 17 or 18 ft. It defies basic baksetball logic, if your big and and strong, you want to score close to the basket. I don’t understand why they groom big men to be redundant shooters.
PS
Great to see all the informed discussion on the post – last in the series coming tomorrow morning!
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
Out of curiosity, what are your plans for posts in the next couple weeks before training camp starts?
You’ve filled early September very well – the rest of the month seems daunting though.
by dhackett1565 on Sep 10, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
We’ve got a bunch of stuff – final Bosh post tomorrow, perhaps a Sunday thought Sunday, then next week a look at Marco vs. Leandro, and a few other things.
And we’ve got an interview week coming as well, including the long-awaited chat with the Wages of Wins’ Dave Berri.
So…have no fear, we’ve got lots of stuff still to come and training camp is less than 3 weeks away!
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 10, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
perhaps a Sunday thought Sunday
I like that we’re not waiting until Monday to run that. LOL
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Sep 11, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
new season, new team, new stats.
forget about bosh, we didnt win with him anyways, so just let this new young team play and let each player share their responsibility on the court. we got no all-star so this team will be finally playing like a team, and not the ‘bosh plus scrubs team’ but more of a ‘young team learning to play together’ team. doesnt this get you excited?
2011 1st round pick, here we come!
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