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Previewing the Raptors 2010-11 Season - Celticsblog Edition

Celticsblog's season previews?  Already?  Yep, our annual participation with some of the blogosphere's finest signifies that the NBA season is probably right around the corner...

Star-divide

This week kicked off Celticsblog's annual round of blogger previews.

Things started with the Celts, Knicks and Nets, and now...onto our beloved Raptors.

Here's our quick overview of the upcoming season...

 

Team Name: Toronto Raptors
Last Year’s Record: 40-42

Key Losses: Chris Bosh, Chris Bosh and Chris Bosh as well as Antoine Wright.
Players Who are Gone, but Certainly Won't Be Missed:  Hedo Turkoglu and Patrick O'Bryant

Key Additions: Linas Kleiza, Leandro Barbosa, Julian Wright, Ed Davis, Solomon Alabi and PJ Carlesimo.

Somehow still with the Team:  Marcus Banks.

 

1. What significant moves were made during the off-season?

The biggie of course was the loss of Chris Bosh.  Many saw it coming, especially after the Raptors' unraveling post-All-Star break, but the manner in which things unfolded was hardly predictable. Unlike LeBron James, who was probably going to come out like Public Enemy number one post-free agency unless he returned to Cleveland, Bosh went from sympathetic company man looking for a team that could help him win, to publicity-seeking pariah and possibly the city's new Vince Carter.  In fact it's quite possible that Bosh will now receive more boos upon his return to the T-Dot than another player the Raptors bid adieu to this off-season, Hedo Turkoglu.  Quite a feat.

Outside of these two finding new homes, Toronto also said goodbye to perennial project Patrick O'Bryant, traded Marco Belinelli to New Orleans, and decided not to re-sign Rasho Nesterovic and one of the team's only decent wing defenders last year, Antoine Wright.

Their replacements?

Linas Kleiza, Leandro Barbosa, Julian Wright, Ed Davis, Solomon Alabi and David Andersen.

Cricket cricket...

 

2. What are the team’s biggest strengths?

That's the million dollar question.

We've spent a good deal of time this off-season examining the club's various attributes, but none have exactly jumped out as "strengths."  Yes, the defence might take a minute step forward, but the team's rebounding struggles don't exactly appear to be alleviated, and unfortunately the team's one clear-cut strength last season, its offense, looks to have taken a step back minus Bosh.

Speed and athleticism at face value would appear to be the team's biggest strengths.  However due to the youth and inexperience on the club, in addition to other factors, it's hard to say whether or not Toronto will be able to adequately use those tools to their advantage next season.

With a starting five that probably looks like a contender's bench, the one true strength then may be the team's depth.  Players like Sonny Weems and Julian Wright probably won't start come October 27th, but there's no question that they both could find themselves amongst the starting group later in the season. Outside of possibly Andrea Bargnani, most of the starting line-up at present seems quite interchangeable, and the Raptors could ostensibly run a very solid bench group out each night.

Considering the holes in the starting line-up though, that seems a bit like a hollow victory.

 

3. What are the team’s biggest weaknesses?

See above.

In all seriousness, we're talking about a very young and inexperienced team with a very limited amount of NBA-proven talent.  As a result, weaknesses abound and it's hard to point to one single area that is a concern.

 

4. What are the goals for this team?

Bryan Colangelo would probably answer this question by saying the goal is to make the playoffs.

Yes, that's always a nice thing to say to the media, but frankly this to me looks like a rebuild situation for the franchise.  Therefore I think the main goal for this club should be player development.  Guys like Sonny Weems, DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis and even Joey Dorsey etc need coaching and experience as well as adequate playing time so hopefully Jay Triano and his coaching staff provide these things next year.  The truth is that no one really knows if guys like DeMar or Weems have what it takes to be stars in this league, let alone solid role players.  If this team wants to rebuild, it needs to sort out the true potential building blocks from the fringe types, and this should start this season.



5. Is this the year Andrea Bargnani finally lives up to his draft status?

In our Celticsblog preview each season, aside from the usual group of questions as per the above, there's one wild-card query we always address.  Sometimes it's not a clear-cut question but this year one thing jumps out - with Chris Bosh no longer on the team, is this the year Andrea Bargnani breaks out?

Bargnani is the most polarizing figure on the team.  Some think he's simply Brian Cook 2.0, others believe he's never been able to show just how good he can be with Bosh standing in the way.  Whatever side of the argument you're on though, there's no arguing that Andrea hasn't lived up to his "Il Mago" billing on a consistent basis, especially on the defensive side of the court.

So is this the year?  There's no Bosh, no Hedo, no Sam Mitchell - aka, no more excuses.  Bargnani looks to be the go-to option on offense, and this team needs his abilities more than ever.  If he can't get the job done this year and take that proverbial "next step," there's a good chance he never will.

 

Predicted record: 30-52.  Some folks are predicting New Jersey-like levels of losing, but I actually think the team will do better than some expect.  Depending on your view of acquiring a top draft pick though, admittedly it might be better to sing those 2009-10 Jersey blues...

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I'm sticking with my NJ Prediction

I love your optimism, but I’m sticking with the prediction I threw out in my CelticsBlog team preview (and our Twitter chats earlier this summer) that the team will do worse than the Nets did last year.

As a side note, what happens if Bargs goes down to injury? Who “carries” the scoring load then?

http://www.hoopsaddict.com/toronto-raptors-season-preview-3/

by Ryan McNeill on Sep 16, 2010 7:59 AM EDT reply actions  

Read your piece this morning man, I’m a big wins produced guy and unless Jose or Amir take HUGE steps back and no one else develops, I think it’ll be tough to duplicate the Nets’ result from last year.

And I’m not even worried about Bargs, my expectations of him are pretty low to begin with so I envision nights where guys like Kleiza, Barbosa, even Weems, are the lead point getters. That doesn’t say much for the team’s talent, but I just don’t expect Andrea to get to that “next level,” so his impact again on the club will be minimal once you factor in his defense and rebounding issues.

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Sep 16, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pretty accurate

It’s hard to argue with anything mentioned there. Probably going to be a season of development and hope for a good lottery spot. I don’t think the team will do worse than the Nets last year, but it will be close.

by PNUTZ on Sep 16, 2010 10:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Fair analysis

That pretty much sums up the team this season. Player development has to be the primary goal along with determining who stays long term and who doesn’t. Given the current roster I might predict a slightly lower win total, maybe around 25, but really who knows.

by DW19 on Sep 16, 2010 11:06 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, I think the 30 win total is a bit optimistic. Actually my range where I am pretty sure the team will fall under is 20-30 wins. Maybe they do great and manage a 30 win season, or maybe some injuries happen and 20 wins is the result. Either way, not an embarrassing season for the franchise, and still a good chance at a top 3 draft pick.

Which all sounds great to me.

by dhackett1565 on Sep 16, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

That’s the tricky thing – injuries would drop this down, and maybe the more realistic number is about 25 to 28, but so far this off-season the metrics lead me to believe that the club won’t be Nets or even Wolves bad.

Which in a way, is unfortunate…

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Sep 16, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I’m emotionally prepared for a horrible season… and the Raptors probably won’t even deliver that! LOL

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Sep 16, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sugar for the Lemons

In a scenario where a young team either stays the same or improves (by natural maturation or more talented replacements) at every position, but loses their best player from the year before, do they usually win 12 to 15 less games? From the projections offered up in this space so far, it looks like people are expecting regressions from a lot of this roster and negligible impact from the pieces brought in.

And consider the division: Does Boston, continuing to age, look to be winning 50 games again and winning every game against the Raptors? Should the injury question not factor more into their projection? Eventually the drop off is significant, no?

New York I don’t have a read on to be truthful and Jersey has added some decent (not great) pieces to what was a VERY BAD team, but then I think they will be an interesting watch simply because of the Avery Johnson hire.

I know many of you will suggest that coaching doesn’t make a difference, but shouldn’t PJ, with his harsher, SOB personality balance out Triano better and make for a more complete staff, especially with his coming from a very good fundamentally sound system like the Spurs?

Happiness is that which gets lost in the details of its pursuit.

by HQ Interloper on Sep 16, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I admire your optimism, but I think that removing a team’s best player makes a big difference, especially in cases where that best player is quite a lot better than the team’s second best player. Not that the season will be a total write-off, but it could get rough.

by DW19 on Sep 16, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Minnesota’s been pretty bad since KG left, 32 wins down to 22 and it would’ve been worse had he been a FA defection not a trade (netted guys like Jefferson, Gomes, etc). I think we’re slightly better than that though.

I don’t think we’ll be sub 20 (requires a hideously awful team).

25-26 would be my center point, +/- 5 wins.

by bigweeze on Sep 16, 2010 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Off topic

But a friend of mine(reliable) just told me that Ed Davis was at Mount Sinai this morning(maybe Sunnybrook) and was having an MRI on his knee.

by Tinmann on Sep 16, 2010 12:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Alarming… but it could’ve just been a precautionary thing after he tweaked something during a workout.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Sep 16, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Perfect...

Honestly, one of the only things I’m actually looking forward to this season is seeing a young Ed Davis play. The development of Davis and the Young gunz is about the ONLY reason to watch the Raptors this year. Less Davis means more Bagani and potentially (gulp) David Anderson (hurl).

by MAS11 on Sep 16, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree. I am looking forward to Davis becoming a nice piece of the puzzle. Let’s pray that his knees are sound.

by DW19 on Sep 16, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Obviously it's waaaaay to early to judge...

But maybe there is a reason Davis’ draft stock fell so significantly.

by MAS11 on Sep 16, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

His only major injury in the past was his broken wrist this past winter… Which is why he fell, but it shouldn’t have anything to do with any potential knee injury.

by dhackett1565 on Sep 16, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Davis & Bargnani

>
From the stats & such that I’ve read, and a small sample of videos, I’d question why Ed & Andrea couldn’t make the perfect Front Court couple. Davis is a potential Double Double – a sort of Bosh, minus 12 points but much improved defense. Might even motivate Bargs to hustle a little more on defense.
.
I’ve heard Davis blurs the line between Centre & PF, which in the case of Andrea (is he a PF, or a Centre? ), it might work. Interchangeable parts sometimes offer more versatility.
.
That said, I think the Raptors need to move their scoring emphasis, over to where Champions tend to be. I also think Bargnani is not the wild card for this season. A lousy showing will quiet some folks (aka homers). A 3 point 2 Rebound increase, a minor change for the most part, will only quiet the hater crowd, and rally the underdogs.
.
Weems, Demar & Johnson will probably see better numbers – not enough to cover Bosh & the rest of the dearly departed – but should one of them take off, the season would have taken a step in the right direction. And if it’s enough to take a play-off spot, I say go. No tank you, please. The benefits of a short play-off round – say against Lebron, Wade & No. 3, could be just perfect tonic for the Young Guns. Get their asses kicked, add a little humiliation, and you have – as Perry Mason would say …. motive .. and opportunity.
.

by RapthoseLeafs on Sep 16, 2010 10:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Davis and Andrea

I agree with the above comments. I would add that Andrea keeps improving slowly on defence and offence each year so until he stops, I have to believe he will continue to improve. He’s not old, he’s young. He has gotten bigger and stronger each year and I hold out hope for a 23 pts and 8 reb guy with 2.2 blks/stls Shoots 50% from the floor and 39% from three. And playing better defence. But he’s a ways off those results.

Draft picks are a consolation prize, we want playoff experience. No tank you indeed. Try to make the playoffs. See what happens. There isn’t much pressure on the team and maybe they can thrive on that.

I wanna see amazing happen…for my team…maybe a championship season that they make a movie about its so fantastic a story. Or more than 30 wins. 39 would get us 8th I think this year with the league so top heavy. It could happen…it would be kinda amazing and unlikely, but at this point we’re hungry and young and we are undefeated.

by defensive rap on Sep 17, 2010 3:11 AM EDT reply actions  

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