Sunday Thought - Is Leandro Barbosa Simply Marco Belinelli 2.0?
As part of their continuing Sunday series, the HQ takes a look at Leandro Barbosa, and wonders if Toronto didn't replace one Marco Belinelli with another...
Originally my plan was to run the final installment in our "Missing Chris Bosh" series yesterday, however Synergy's database can be a bit finicky, and I couldn't get it to work the way I wanted it to.
However I could get it to give me proper data for something else I've been wanting to do for a while; compare Leandro Barbosa to Marco Belinelli.
While watching some of the FIBA World Championships, it struck me that the way Leandro Barbosa scored the basketball was quite similar to a former Raptor, Marco Belinelli. Drives to the basket, pull-up 3's, the herky-jerky up-fakes, it got me wondering if maybe the Raptors were replacing one Marco with another.
Having issues with loading Bosh's stats, I tried both Belinelli and Barbosa and got some interesting results:
| Cut to basket | Hand Off | Isolation | Off Screen | Off Rebound | P&R Ball Handler | Spot-Up | Transition | |
| Barb | 2.70% | 2.80% | 10% | 14.30% | 1.20% | 26% | 22.20% | 18% |
| Bel | 3.60% | 3.20% | 5.40% | 11.40% | 0.50% | 20.80% | 26.20% | 16.70% |
As you can see, we're talking about two players who played in very similar manners last season. Both did the bulk of their damage by spotting up for shots, or off transition plays, and were actively involved in the pick-and-roll as the ball handler. Neither cut to the hoop with much frequency and both were pretty uninvolved as offensive rebounders, as well as post-up options. (Barbosa didn't even chart in this area.)
However it wasn't quite a mirror-image situation.
The biggest difference last year was in their isolation sets, where Leandro did 10% of his offensive damage on the year. Marco only did this half as much, 27 plays to 56 in fact. For a Raptors' team looking for more shot-creation next season, I'd argue this is a good tradeoff.
But is this a bit of an apples to oranges compare? Did these two players even get similar minutes and opportunities last year? Remember, Belinelli was hardly getting solid time on the court by season's end.
It looks like Leandro wasn't getting much burn either though.
In fact while Barbosa had a higher usage rate than Belinelli, 24.9 to 20.1, Belinelli actually played more total minutes last year, and averaged almost as many per match (17 to Leandro's 17.9.) The two also attempted a very similar amount of field goals (365 for Barbosa, 379 for Belinelli) and posted similar percentages in this realm.
So what does all this mean for Raptors fans?
I think for starters, it means that fans should expect to be excited and frustrated by Barbosa in many of the same ways they were about Belinelli. This means expecting Leandro to hit some big shots and provide a nice spark off the bench, but also to make suspect decisions with the ball at times, especially in terms of shot selection. At face value based on the stats, the team is essentially replacing Marco Belinelli with a slightly more "one-on-one" version who has more NBA experience.
However I do think that in some ways, Barbosa has more upside than Belinelli ever did, mostly because I think he'll get more consistent minutes. It seemed last year that despite the stats saying Marco was more effective than DeMar on the court, the Raptors' braintrust had a more vested interest in DeRozan, so he got the court-time regardless.
I don't think Barbosa will fall into the same situation for a number of reasons, including the success he's had at the FIBA World's where he's averaged 16 points a game on 46% shooting.
As well, most of the stats indicate that Barbosa is the better defender of the two, albeit marginally. This I think will help him stay on the court for Triano.
But really, this all comes down to coaching and use doesn't it? I think really the only certain conclusion that can be made from our little analysis is that it's probably a good thing Marco was shipped out, because with Leandro now on board, his game was completely redundant.
It's now up to Jay to maximize Leandro's impact from here on out, which not only means giving him the right amount of time on the court, but also putting him in a position to be successful, something that didn't happen with our friend Belinelli last year on a consistent basis.
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Expectation
Thanks for the great article, it sure beats listening to traditional Sunday Sermons!
I think what this shows is that we need to seriously temper our expectations as to what Barbosa is and will be. He’s an NBA player, for sure, and he does some positive things. But is he going to be a key cog when we’re seriously thinking of contending (in my dream world), in 3-4 years? Highly unlikely.
All that said, I think that, pretty much regardless of what he contributes, he’ll go down in Raptor lore as the Beloved Brazillian who freed us from the Terrible Turk. And the value of that is hard to overstate.
+1
“he’ll go down in Raptor lore as the Beloved Brazillian who freed us from the Terrible Turk”
Love that!
I too think that’s indeed his biggest asset really, ridding us of Hedo’s contract and chemistry-killing demeanor.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 13, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
To me, the most important thing about having Barbosa in the lineup, is that his name is not Hedo Turkaglu. The number one thing on my list for the raptors to do this offseason was unload the useless Turk for anything, (which includes a slice of pizza pizza and a 7up). I think many people share that sentiment. So yes, its nice to look at what Barbosa can bring to the table, but I think we need to realize that we replaced nothing for something. Lets be happy!
Agree 100%
The main goal of this deal was to unload Turk’s contract. The fact that we got a potential starter that can put up 16 points per game is an added bonus. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a better season than Calderon!
by Schenn4captain on Sep 13, 2010 7:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep – sorta like the Hoffa move right? Getting rid of Araujo for ANYTHING was a dream, then when BC turned him into a serviceable player it was just a bonus.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 13, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally agree with the first couple of comments about Barbosa freeing the Raptors from Turkoglu’s god-awful contract. Honestly, Barbosa could put up stats similar to Marcus Banks and I’d be fine with it for that reason alone.
That being said, Barbosa has performed at a very high level in past seasons. The chances of him replicating that – or coming close to replicating that – this season is much higher than Belinelli putting in a season for the ages.
The Synergy data is terrific. I would’ve guessed that Barbosa did a helluva lot more in terms of cutting to the basket… I almost feel like one of those delusional Bargnani fanboys who believe he posts up and creates his own shot. LOL
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Sep 12, 2010 12:09 PM EDT reply actions
No, we (Bargnani Fanboys) think you do not get it
It would be stupid for andrea to post up let’s say Duncan like you seem to advocate, we still believe he should (Like he has done contless times to him and to almost every other big in the league) take him one step more in the outside and break his ankles driving by him. Oh well….
Here is lies the problem with that scenario though, what if the other team puts a mobile big on him (Varajao?), if AB can’t break a guys ankles because they can stay with him, what game does he have then? Developing a post game would make him an impossible matchup because you wouldn’t be able to defend him effectively. Until that happens he will struggle against athletic bigs and teams who defend him small (something he didn’t see much of in the past but will probably get a huge dose of this year unless he make teams pay by posting up).
The did try, for one play only.....
than Andrea drove by Varejao and dunked. They than stopped using Varejao in single coverage on him which explains perfectly my point. Here it is, first play of the game….
It's funny how...
All the Bargnani fan boys had nothin to say in the comments section of Franchise’s last post to dipute the indisputable. That Bargnani is not even in the top 100 in the NBA in regards to PER. All these arguments regarding Bargnani’s offensive prowess and how he can “break ancles” are rendered irrelevant by the fact he is a terrible rebounder, bad defender and inefficient. That is all.
amen
or whatever the taliban version of it is
Great comment.
Great logic, well thought out, good use of analysis and rationale. You really focussed in on my argument and provided counterpoints thereby furthering the discussion. You are a worthy oponent Renato and really challenge me to think deeply. Ummm yeah.. Keep making comments like that, you just solidify the point that it is indisputable that Bargani is an inefficient player and there is little to say to counter that.
Bargnani’s rank in the entire NBA (442 players) last year:
FG%: 168th (47%)
3FG%: 92nd (37.2%)
FT%: 170th (77.4%)
And of the qualified players, Bargnani ranks 35th (.523) in ESPN’s adjusted FG% (119 qualified players). Sorry, couldn’t find rankings for TS%, eFG%.
Anyway, these show that he is at least in the top 1/3rd of the league in efficiency, and in the top 1/4 in his area of specialty (3 pointers), and, based on ESPN’s adjFG%, he ranks in the top 30% of qualified players in efficiency.
Might not exactly be proof of excellence… but you can hardly say your point is ‘indisputable.’
by dhackett1565 on Sep 13, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Good and fair points. However, you’ve looked exclusively at offensive stats. Going back to my argument of last post, this ignores his overall efficiency (PER) which includes important factors like defence and rebounding. My basic position is that what Bargnani gives on offense he taketh away in other areas. Leading to his poor PER rating. Plus, he’s a centre, where fairly or unfairly, things like defense and rebounding are that much more important.
I’d add Win Score and Wins Produced to the overall metric breakdown too…he’s just not even a top 100 overall player in the league no matter which way you slice the data.
Hey, I continue to hope I’m wrong, and that he tears up the league this coming season and shuts me up, but I think the stats and history show that that’s about as likely to happen as the Knicks winning an NBA title next year.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 13, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I agree, overall, his stats are not impressive.
Based on the comments preceding mine, I thought this was a discussion of his offensive efficiency, as this was a conversation based on his post game, or lack thereof.
by dhackett1565 on Sep 13, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough, but I think it was pretty clear I was talking about PER, overall efficieny and how his O does not make up for his D. here’s a quote from my post above :
“That Bargnani is not even in the top 100 in the NBA in regards to PER. All these arguments regarding Bargnani’s offensive prowess and how he can "break ancles" are rendered irrelevant by the fact he is a terrible rebounder, bad defender and inefficient.”
You said he was “a terrible rebounder, bad defender and inefficient.” That’s three things – terrible rebounder, check. Bad defender, check. Inefficient? That is the term I posted my numbers to at least… balance, if not refute.
by dhackett1565 on Sep 14, 2010 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow, I was just throwing a name out there and you completely shredded my argument. Nothing more to say other than I am now a complete believer that Bargnani is the greatest center of all time. He is going to finish number 1 on the top 50 greatest and we have all completely missed his ability to post up and overrated how important that is.
biggest difference between the two
age and experience. colangelo’s familiar with barbosa, who should have a far greater impact on this raptors team than marco ever did.
the other difference could be playmaking. it’s unfortunate triano didn’t have the foresight to further develop marco’s skill as a playmaker. with hedo’s down year last season, i think marco could have spent more time as his backup.
This always bothered me too. Marco looked to be a pretty solid offensive facilitator yet he rarely got the opportunity to do so. Hopefully Triano gives an extended leash to Barbosa if it looks warranted.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 13, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Now that it looks like Jose is staying...
I’m doubly glad Turkoglu is gone. The fact that Barbosa is a (slight) upgrade on Bellinelli is just icing on the cake.
You forget though that Marco was probably a better defender than Barbosa is. It may not be a huge amount but this team needed all the D it could muster.
I’m usually in lock-step with your thinking mcGateway, but have to question the perception on Belli’s defence. I think looking at his defence vis-a-vis Barbosa is a wash. I remember Triano beig quoted last season that he couldn’t be keep him on the court because of his inability to guard his asignment.
Triano actually said that?
I think that guy needs a PET scan. “His inability to guard his assignment”… WOW, but derozan, Hedo, Jose and Bargs were defensive stoppers.
I actually thought Belli was pretty good on D when he was playing. He was more of a pest that could frustrate offenses a little bit. Always moving and waving his hands, its better than standing around doing nothing. If Beli broke a clipboard in the offense’s face, he would have earned more minutes.
It may be his erratic defensive style was the problem. If the defensive scheme was calling for him to do something other than what he was doing… well, you have to take him out. The scheme may have been flawed, but as a player you have to stick to it.
by dhackett1565 on Sep 13, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that was the case. Think back to former coaches frustrations with JYD. While yes he may have got rebounds and steals, he would completely go off the reservation when it cames to team defensive sets, leading to breakdowns.
I remeber distinctly in the post-game write ups after one of Toronto’s losses to Milwaukee, when asked why Belli’s minutes were cut in the 2nd half (he was having a decent shooting night that evening) Triano (or one of the assistants) advised that Stackhouse was abusing him on D and offensive rebounds… Anecdotal evidence, yes, but it stuck with me.
MAS 11 – I remember that exactly, think we were actually live at that game. Stack came on and grabbed two straight offensive boards while Belli stood around, and that was after the 85 year old schooled him off the bounce a few times.
Result?
Marco benched for the rest of the game.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 13, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Again though, don’t you think it is ironic that Belli got pulled while the pilons named Calderon and Turkoglu would still have played?
A couple of points here. One, Triano is a yes man, and he was not going to go against his master, er umm, GM and bench his star free agent signing. Regarding Calderone, well you could have a point hre, but I presume the thinkinger here was he’s still a better alternative than Banks. Rightly or wrongly…
I still don't get it
I don’t think I remember Turk or Calderon ever sticking to a defensive scheme, I just think the Triano quote was a load.
Maybe Belli is better defender generally, but I’ve seen Barabosa go into lockdown mode in certain situations and be really effective. Same on offense, sometimes he just elevates his game. With Belli, I felt he always played the same, not aggressive enough, style and sometimes it worked out for him and sometimes not. I often thought maybe he held back a bit or Triangelo was not willing to let him off the leash in favor of derozan. He’s not at all the kind of player to be a spot up shooter/role player like he was in Toronto but I don’t think there’s much upside we haven’t seen yet either.
You saw it here first!!
Seriously though, I don’t think Triano blows his nose without running it by Colangelo first. Total speculation of course, but that would be my guess.
Triangelo
That’s so good ha ha…I’m tempted to throw that out there at media day this fall.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 13, 2010 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Hainline Player Swap Caclulator
I put in the swap (not trade) of Belinelli for Barbosa which in what this article is about.
It shows a + 3.8 wins for the Raptors with Barbosa rather than Belinelli
+3.8 wins? That definitely passes the sniff test, I think.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Sep 12, 2010 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Very interesting.
I think that if Triano uses Barbosa correctly and Leandro’s healthy, that could quite possibly be the case. After all, looking at the Wins Produced scores for Barbs in seasons previous to last year’s injury-riddled one, he was a solid contributor for that Phoenix club.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 13, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
It is not interesting at all, in fact it is counterproductive.
According to the tool, Phoenix would only be 1.5 wins better if they swapped Lebron James for Leandro Barbosa in a bad year.
If I learned anything today, it’s that we’d better hold out to get Lebron (+1.5) from Miami in any trade. If this tool is correct, they might try to stick us with D-Wade (-1.1).
Solid point – didn’t get to check the link so yeah, if you’re swapping Barbosa for James without much impact…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 13, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Barbosa struggled with injuries last year
Sure Marco put up comparable numbers to Barbosa. Marco’s numbers were in line with his career (albeit only a few years). Point is, he has yet to show he can do more. Barbosa’s numbers were way down across the board (minutes, points, shooting percentages, etc). Based on the FIBA tournament, he is healthy again and should put up better numbers than what we could have expected from Marco.
Barbosa versus Marco
People need to look at Leandro’s career and realize he is a much better player than Marco. And no one has mentioned the biggest difference between the two; Barbosa is faster. He is one of the quickest players in transition in the NBA and FIBA. Last year was a horrible year for Leandro with injury and other hardships but it is reasonable to expect him to return to his previous career stats this year.
With the young guns and Leandro, Jack , Kleiza and even Andrea can run the floor well for a big man, the Raptors should have a good transition game this season.
Last year we thought we could win with height in a half court offence with Jose running the show and Bosh being our centre piece. We had three guys at 6’10" or bigger and we thought that would work well. It didn’t. We couldn’t play effective defence.
This year we should be quicker and better on defence. If for no other reason than the changing of Jack for Jose and Linas for Hedo. Jose does not keep his man in front of him and for that reason he is a liability on defence. The help defenders have to come and the D collapses. Hedo was lazy and showed no toughness or grit.
The last reason our defence will be better is Demar and Sonny’s continued development in all aspects of the game. I think they can both become good players in the NBA over the next few years. Gotta love their upside. Go Raps
I agree, but speed is only an asset if it can be taken advantage of. I worry that the team will struggle to rebound and get stops at times and this will prevent the Raptors from really using Barbosa’s sizzle in transition.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 13, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
For me the TJ ford situation devalued the speed factor… what’s the point if one guy is down under the basket while your bigs are jogging over the half court line … I agree we have some guys who can run when there’s an opportunity, but you have to have some real horses to keep up with a barbosa day in day out…
linas had a great game
just off topic but linas again had a nice game to win bronze today for lithuania with 33 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists…linas had such a amazing tournment hopefully this carries into the season for the raps.
I think leandro and belli are the same type of player but barbosa is of higher quality
by raptors_run_the_show on Sep 12, 2010 10:15 PM EDT reply actions
Tri-lingual
.
At first, I could see the similarities (between Belli & Barbie) – through your numbers, and a bit their styles. On second thought though, I decided that the Brazilian was more a Belinelli +1. Older maybe, but a step up, and maybe more.
.
That second perspective came about over a comment “analyzing” Kleiza’s falter against the Americans. Apparently they have the only NBA players, and that`s how real basketball is played. Of course, flipping that thought around, it would only be fair to look at Barbosa with a little more credit. And at a quick glance, Barbosa has decent numbers in that U.S. – Brazil match. 14 Pts. 4 Rbs. 4 St. and 4 Assists. Not bad.
Unfortunately, there`s more. And that would be the 3rd way I looked at this.
In their match-up (August 30th), the final spread was only 2 points. Close enough. But had it not been for Barbosa’s shooting woes, the South American boys might’ve been the ones celebrating. .
In the end, Brazil loss because 1 of their 3 point shots did not go in. Taking 13 shots & making only 3 is not good. It does happen. Hopefully, not too much.
Barbosa has to know that his playing time – like Belinelli – could be affected if his shot selections start impacting the new kids (and their necessary “training”). However, unlike Belli, there’s a pretty decent history behind the Brazilian, to warrant more of an opportunity. Being a career 400 (3 pt%), does give one a certain latitude – especially with this brand of Raptors. If Barbosa can exceed that 400 average, things could look better for Toronto.
.
Not long ago, there was a topic that discussed our future Perimeter shooting – wondering how the Raps will deal with their 3 point situation. If the game plan is to have Andrea forgo some 3 point shots (so he can hang out in the Post area more often), Toronto will need to make up for the loss of Belly, Wright & Turk. Add a little bit of Bargnani loss (to the 3 point shot total), and the Raps really need to sort this one out. This is where Barbosa comes in.
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Hopefully it won’t be too much (negatively) – that could be tough. Could help Andrea with the rebound thing if he misses a lot. My worst Barbosa nightmare envisions an anti-Kapono style. Isn’t afraid to shoot 3 pointers – just can’t make them.
If it works out right, it could be another good thing. Besides a TPE, and expiring contracts, we’d have Barbosa’s trade value increase to a point, where a team making a run, is willing to cough up some future for a solid addition. One can only dream.
.
Then again, maybe I need to see through the eyes of FAQ, and just fugetaboutit.
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Great comment – it’s making me think of a few more things we should discuss before the season starts, primarily the 3-point attack. I saw Barbosa blow those open 3’s near the end of the USA game and that’s what first got me thinking about his Belinelli type streakiness. (Or as you put it, the “anti-Kapono style” ha ha.) Jose’s still there, and Jack shot well last season from 3, but if Bargs gets fewer open looks in that capacity, Hedo’s gone, DeMar and Sonny (bad to terrible long-range shooters) are getting a lot more time on the court, than the team could see a big drop-off in this capacity. Kleiza is really the only addition this off-season that bolsters the perimeter attack.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Sep 13, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Bosh Part III
Finally got the Synergy pieces to work I think here so we’ll resume (and conclude) the series tomorrow morning…sorry about the delay.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com




























