Why I bet $1k on the Raptors

I think the only danger to your bet is the following scenario (which, I’m sorry to say, I believe is likely).

BC has gone to the board and said that the team has a lot of good young talent, but also some onerous contracts. He feels that he cannot compete this year. His best assets, besides the cornerstones he wants to build the team around, are a large TPE and a currently injured PG. He says that the TPE will be of highest value at the trade deadline, when the season is practically over. He also says that Jose’s contract will be more valuable either at the trade deadline, if a contender has a PG injury, or after the season, since his contract will be shorter, especially if there is a lockout. And he is basically unmoveable now – with his injury, plus the fact that as a fan favourite, he may be bale to fill some seats with some casual fans (and Spanish fans).

As such – he outlines this plan: enter the season with the Young Guns and Bargnani as the faces of the franchise – an exciting but doomed-to-fail brand of basketball, with too much youth/inexperience and not quite enough talent to consistently win games. The losses pile up, but due to the exciting brand of basketball, tickets still sell at a decent (but not great) rate.

The trade deadline comes along. The TPE (and maybe Jose, along with other assets) are used to make a couple good acquisitions to bring in solid, young but overpaid talent and some picks or prospects with promise. The team improves after the deadline, but is already far out of the running for a playoff spot, setting up a top-10 (or best case, top-3) pick next spring. The team selects Harrison Barnes or Kyrie Irving, or some other young team-changer (or at least a very solid prospect).

Whether there is a lockout or not, the team goes into the next season with newly acquired talent, growth from the young core of Bargs and the Young Guns, and some good prospects, including hopefully a potential franchise player from their top pick. All this on top of an additional trade in the off-season to move anyone who didn’t pan out during the last season (Kleiza, Barbosa’s expiring) and even more talent is incoming.

The Raptors enter the 2011-2012 (or 2012-2013, if a lockout occurs) with no onerous contracts, young potential stars in Bargs, the Young Guns, the TPE pickup and high-level picks from the previous draft, a salary below the tax level, a reputation for exciting basketball putting the fans in the seats, plus a return of the more knowledgable fans who can see the obvious talent upgrade over the year before. Add in a mid-level signing in the off-season for some veteran talent to guide the young team – and you’re playoff bound, with potential contender status down the road. Another EOY for BC, more success and money for MLSE, and all it took was to lose you your bet this year…

I’m not sure that there is a problem with him being a “lame duck”. I do agree that if you feel he is managing to win for this year only, then you must fire him right away. However, if you feel that he is managing for another contract from you, then him being a “lame duck” is not an issue and you shouldn’t worry about it.

Right now, BC has it really good in Toronto. He’s GM and president, and he reports only to the board. That’s a lot of power that he probably wouldn’t get else where (at least not immediately), so he’s got a lot of incentive to do a good job this year and in the following years if he gets another contract from MLSE.

BTW, I’m SHOCKED at the results of the poll so far.

I am not sure that you are a lame duck if you have other potential employment prospects on the horizon. Chris Bosh, for example, was a “soon-to-be free agent” rather than a “lame duck” last season. For a self-confident guy like Colangelo, I don’t think he would ever consider himself a lame duck(whether he was one or not). It is more likely that he rushes things(ie tries for a quick fix) because he can’t endure a losing season rather than because he considers himself to be a lame duck.