Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

Has the Raptors' Defence Improved This Off-Season?

The HQ wonders if despite the doom and gloom being thrown around this team, the Toronto Raptors have actually taken some baby steps forward this off-season at one end of the court...

Star-divide

Lately there hasn't been a lot to write about regarding the Toronto Raptors.

Well...not a lot of positive to write about....

Jose getting hurt, the team being pegged as a bottom-feeder, and on and on.

We're going to talk about the latter in detail this week, but it was a discussion with a fellow blogger, Ryan McNeil of Hoops Addict, late last week, that I wanted to use for the basis of today's post.

Ryan and I were going back and forth about the club's outlook and he worried that there wasn't a single area in which the team improved this off-season.  I argued that defensively perhaps the team had made some small steps forward, but in reality, this was simply based on the "on paper adjustments" that could be seen.

For instance one of the team's biggest defensive sieves, Hedo Turkoglu, was no longer with the club, while the Dinos added athleticism and shot blocking via the draft.  Even smaller moves, like replacing Patrick O'Bryant's non-existent presence on the glass with Joey Dorsey's rugged rebounding and man-to-man D.

The counter to this of course is that the team lost its best perimeter defender, Antoine Wright, and Chris Bosh, who although no Dwight Howard on his own, now takes his 9.4 rebounds and 1.2 blocks a game on average to Miami.

So what's the truth here?  Are the Raptors better off on D thanks to their off-season moves, even by the smallest of measures?

Before a single game of the new season has been played, it's admittedly tough to do much analysis.  However by using the database over at the fantastic website, Basketballreference.com, as well as a few other sources, I put together a rudimentary view of what fans might expect.

First, I looked at a stat developed by metrics guru Dean Oliver entitled "Defensive Rating."  This stat looks at the "expected amount of points that an individual player will allow on defense over 100 possessions."  Therefore the lower the "Defensive Rating" for a player, the better.

For instance, one of the league's best defenders, Dwight Howard, had a mark of 95 last season.  To put that in perspective, other well-known defenders like Kevin Garnett and Anderson Varejao had marks of 101 and 102 last year respectively.

The Raptors' top defensive player last year according to this rating?

Reggie Evans with a mark of 107, followed by Amir Johnson, with a score of 110.

This seems to pass the proverbial sniff test as on the court as these two players provided many of the defensive attributes that seemed to make them top defensive options for the Raptors.

Neither score is that "good" relative to the rest of the league, but that makes sense too considering that Defensive Rating can be quite influenced by teammates.  As we saw last year, Toronto's best defenders still didn't look great thanks to their  teammates' less-than-average "stopper skills."

Therefore by totaling up Defensive Ratings for the players on this year's club and comparing the average mark to those on last year's incarnation of the Dinos, we should get an idea of whether or not on average the new group of players are "better" defenders.

On average, this appears to be the case.

Last year's club posted an average Defensive Rating of 112.3 while this  year's posted a mark of 110.8.

Not a huge leap, but a baby step one could argue.

As well, this year's club is missing the Defensive Ratings for its two draftees, Ed Davis and Solomon Alabi.  Alabi won't likely impact things too much as I don't expect him to see many minutes, however Davis should get at least 15 minutes a game in my estimation.  Regardless, I find it hard to believe that either Alabi or Davis would negatively impact the Defensive Ratings average.  Both tested out as above-average rebounders and shot-blockers during college (more on this in a minute), and both are quite mobile and showed excellent defensive intangibles in Division I play.

Yes, I realize this is the NBA now that we're talking about, but it's hard to think that Toronto would be better off defensively by not having either of them on the roster.

So, so far so good then.

Next up, I took a look at two metrics commonly associated with defense; rebounding and shot-blocking.

This was a bit easier than looking at players' Defensive Ratings simply because I could use the stats of Davis and Alabi from college here, thanks to some great extrapolations Draftexpress.com did pre-draft, to make comparisons.

These results came out in favour of this year's club as well.

Looking at the average rebounds per 36 minutes of this team versus last, this year's club improved from an average of 6.17 rebounds per 36 minutes, to 7.03.

Again, not a huge lift, but one none-the-less.

In terms of shot-blocking, there was hardly a change at all as the team went from 0.41 blocks per game with last year's roster, to 0.42 blocks per game for the coming season.

Nevertheless, it's an inch in the right direction and based on these three statistical breakdowns, it could be argued that Toronto if anything, has strengthened it's D this off-season.

Of course it's not that simple.

This is a bit of a "paint brush" method of looking at the numbers considering we've yet to see the team play, let alone determine if Bryan Colangelo is done moving the pieces around.  As well, it's great to average stats out over 36 or 40 minutes etc, however in reality not everyone plays that much, and as a result, certain numbers become inflated.

Take Joey Dorsey.

Sure his 12.5 rebounds per 36 minutes look great, but will he even play 3.6 minutes a match next year?

And while Ed Davis projects to block over a shot a game by my estimate (factoring in 15 minutes of action a match), is he ready to compete with the big boys of the NBA and have that sort of defensive impact right from the get go?

I think perhaps then the better way to look at things is by examining the off-season transactions from a defensive standpoint.  Chris Bosh averaged 10.8 rebounds last year per 36 minutes but we know Dorsey's 12.5 boards isn't going to replace that.  Dorsey simply isn't going to play those types of minutes or be effective enough offensively to be allowed to stay on the court for that length of time.

So keeping the other players constant we have:

IN:

-Solomon Alabi

-David Andersen

-Leandro Barbosa

-Ed Davis

-Joey Dorsey

-Linas Kleiza

-Julian Wright

OUT:

-Marco Belinelli

-Chris Bosh

-Rasho Nesterovic

-Patrick O'Bryant

-Hedo Turkoglu

-Antoine Wright

 

To me, Leandro is a slight upgrade on Marco defensively, Dorsey is a huge upgrade over O'Bryant, Kleiza is a slight defensive upgrade over Turk, and Wright vs. Wright is pretty much a wash.

That leaves Andersen and Nesterovic, where I give Rasho the nod, and Chris Bosh being replaced by Ed Davis and Solomon Alabi.

This is where I think it gets interesting.

There's no question in my mind that Bosh is a better defender than these two however both have the ability to become better overall defenders than CB4 down the road.

The problem is we're talking next season here, not 3 years from now.  

We've seen in the past how long it takes for big men to get accustomed to the NBA way of playing down low, so to me there's no trade-off between the rooks and CB4.  Factor in Bosh's offensive effectiveness, which negates some of his defensive miscues, and the spotlight shines even brighter.  Neither Alabi or Davis have the offensive skills right now to be able to supplant their errors on D.

That being said, all is not lost.

One could argue that with both Kleiza and Wright on board, both of whom can play and defend the 4 spot, some of Bosh's defensive abilities can be replaced.

As well, Amir Johnson, a nearly equal per-minute rebounder and superior shot-blocker, will be let loose, and should he stay out of foul trouble, will probably play some 4 thus helping to lessen the blow of Bosh's departure in terms of defence.

In fact, the way one could look at it is that the center position has remained relatively unchanged defensively, perhaps being upgraded a bit by the rookies, and if anything the small forward position minus Hedo and with the additions of Wright and Kleiza, has taken a step forward on D.  The point guard position has remained unchanged, and the shooting guard spot perhaps dips a bit minus Wright, who spent a good chunk of time there last year.

Add in another year of development for DeRozan and Weems, and hopefully better on-court chemistry between this young group in what for most is their second season together, and I could see Toronto taking a baby step forward on D this year.

Really, it's up to the Raptors' to replace what Chris Bosh gave this team defensively and while I don't think Bryan Colangelo has done quite enough in this department for the immediate future, I'm not foreseeing the gaping hole that many envision.

Will the team still be one of the worst in the league at getting stops?

I expect so.

However there are some solid pieces in place and now the onus is on Jay Triano and his staff to make the most of them, hopefully starting next season.

Comment 40 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

I maybe wrong, but I’m going to say, Ed Davis is already the best offside, help defender on this team. That single handedly may help JC and AB focus on just keeping their opponent to the inside, instead of trying to force their guys to the hash spots.

by Ustation on Aug 30, 2010 2:34 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t see it yet, but without a doubt by end of season I could see him taking that title. That would be huge too.

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Aug 31, 2010 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Really, it’s more a knock on the rest of the Raps, as weak side help D is awful. Is there a word for beyond awful? Megawful?

by Ustation on Aug 31, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think with the additons of ed davis more PT for amir and getting rid of hedo our defence probably improved by a bit also julien wright has potential to be a defensive stopped I hope he lives up to it

by raptors_run_the_show on Aug 31, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Intangibles

I can see there being several intangibles that will affect this year’s defence as compared to last year’s. Three that I think may make some difference

1) Coaching: Jay has a year under his belt and should be the wiser for it. Iavaroni has been replaced by Carlesimo which theoritically should lead to a more sensible defensive system with greater accountability.

2) Mentality: Last year’s team had the mentality that “whatever we do wrong defensively we can always outscore the opposition”. I don’t think the team will have that same attitude this year.

3) Respect from the officials: How often does a league bottom feeder get a stop against a top team only for the top team to be bailed out by the refs with a marginal foul call or some other real or perceived violation by the defenders. Simply put, the NBA has a self-reinforcing cycle: if you are a bad team then don’t expect to get calls(which will make your record that much worse).

One further factor is that this year’s team will be more athletic but less experienced than last year’s team. Those two things will probably cancel eachother out in the short term, but added more athleticism to the line-up is the right strategy in the long term.

by DW19 on Aug 30, 2010 2:42 PM EDT reply actions  

The third point is huge, and something I didn’t touch on. I remember the Mike James’ led Raps a few seasons back constantly got jooked by refs…they just didn’t get the respect they many times deserved…

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Aug 31, 2010 7:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, the NBA is just as idiosyncratic as all other sports when it comes to refereeing. Last year an OKC vs. Raps game (Durant vs. Bosh) would have been called pretty much straight up. Anyone wanna take bets on which team will get the more sympathetic calls from the refs this year?

by DW19 on Aug 31, 2010 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Along the same lines, I actually think that Heat games may be pretty boring this year because whenever they are close we are going to see a LeBron-Wade-Bosh parade to the freethrow line and a pace of play that makes the old Knicks-Heat games look like the ’07 Suns. Granted, that is more a conspiracy theory than a prediction. However, one prediction that I am prepared to make is that the Heat will lead the league in “prima donna flailing for the sake of getting a foul call”.

by DW19 on Aug 31, 2010 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wade already rode that train all the way to a title.

by bigweeze on Aug 31, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great post

Some things:

The Raptors had 93 defensive possessions per game last year – so assuming no change in pace, the effective drop in points allowed per game based on your DRtgs would be about 1.4 PPG. Considering the Raptors lost by an average of 1.8 PPG last year – significant to say the least. If the pace picks up (as expected) and the defensive efficiency is maintained – then the benefits will be even greater.

Also, using the average rebounds per player per 36 is misleading – by multiplying by 6.25 (5 players at 48 minutes) you get the net team effect – which is what matters. Now, this still gives an unfair weighting to players like Dorsey – but it also gives an unfair weighting to players like Banks (who get few rebounds per game) and actually handicaps players like Johnson who are effective at rebounding, but will play more than the 16 minutes this method assumes.

So with the team numbers taken into account – the Raps should increase by 5.4 rebounds and 0.06 blocks per game. The blocks are still basically nothing – but the rebound difference (if it turns out that way) is HUGE. The Raptors were out-rebounded by 0.89 rebounds last year. The improvement would place them out-rebounding opponents by 4.5 rebounds per game. Something no team in the league did last year (Cleveland league-best at 3.9). This is unlikely to actually happen – but a better sign than originally indicated.

Oh, and the top ten teams in rebounding differential last year? CLE, MEM, SAS, ORL, UTH, OKC, LAL, POR, CHI, CHA. Some pretty great overall and defensive teams there.

I guess the only thing I would like to see would be an expected-minute average of the D-ratings, Rebounds, and Blocks, rather than a straight average – to accommodate for the minutes Dorsey won’t play and the increase Amir is likely to see, among other things.

by dhackett1565 on Aug 30, 2010 2:47 PM EDT reply actions  

As proof that the straight average is untrustworthy: your last-year’s average of 0.41 blocks per game – multiplied by 5 players worth of 48 minutes (1.25 times the 36 minutes assumed) gives 2.56 blocks per game. But in reality, the team averaged 4.68 blocks per game. This comes from the team’s above-average shot-blockers getting more minutes than the team’s lesser shot-blockers.

by dhackett1565 on Aug 30, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

One more note about the rebounds – I applied the expected difference straight onto the differential from last year. However, a rebound the Raptors get is also one the other team doesn’t – so assuming the same number of rebounds are available (probably a shaky assumption – but no more than any other) the Raptors would grab 5.4 more rebounds, AND the opponents should grab 5.4 less. So, the expected differential between the Raps and their opponents per game is more like 9.9 rebounds. In other words – not happening. But even reaching, say, 25% of that expected difference would place the Raps at 9th in the league in RBD differential – just behind the Lakers and Blazers.

by dhackett1565 on Aug 30, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would be amazed and ecstatic if this happened. I would be satisfied just to see the Raptors creep back to the positive side of the rebounding differential(I would presume they’d rank around 14th or 15th in the league in that case).

by DW19 on Aug 30, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

The cross-over from negative to positive actually happened at the 18-19th spots. And the Raps placed 22nd last year – so I think creeping to the positive side is kind of the absolute minimum improvement they could show.

by dhackett1565 on Aug 30, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow, if the cross-over is that low their must be some teams that are giving up a ton of rebounds. With all the talk about Bargnani’s rebounding, I assumed that Toronto must have been in the bottom 5 last year.

by DW19 on Aug 30, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s what I thought too. Couldn’t find the team on the list on the first pass – skipped right over them on my way down to the 30th spot.

by dhackett1565 on Aug 30, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here is my problem with your metrics. Bargnani is still the starting center on this team and I do not see him improving his rebounding numbers enough to account for your increase. I am also pretty sure that Johnson will not match Bosh’s numbers even if he takes CBgones minutes. Therefore, where are these mythical rebounds going to come from?

P.S.
Kleiza – averages less rebounds per game then the player he is replacing as well so I really do not see an improvement coming in rebounding even with Alabi (who we all agree will not see major minutes at least at the start of the season) and Davis (who will probably get Amir Johnson minutes from last year at best) on board. Logic seems to eliminate metrics in this case.

by McGateway on Aug 30, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

They aren’t my metrics – they are the metrics used in the article. I can’t speak for their accuracy – as my only source is the above article.

I outlined clearly in my first post why the metrics shown are inaccurate – due mainly to minute distribution and rate maintenance assumptions. But, assuming the averages are true (and I believe they are) and hold to some degree when minutes are taken into account, and that key players maintain their rebounding rates per minute… The stats do show that an increase is likely – even if the theoretical increase is outlandish, some increase should occur.

Plus these are all based on the assumption that no one improves. Which, with a team this young, is a tad pessimistic. So, all in all, the numbers are hard to argue with. If they predicted a slight increase in rebounding, I would say your logic could override that and say the team might be worse. But with a projected improvement so outlandishly huge? Even taking your logical (and reasonable) doubts into consideration, there is too much statistical evidence that an improvement will occur.

by dhackett1565 on Aug 30, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Some really interesting stuff here as usual dhackett, glad someone took what I did to the next level.

I really think the D will inch ahead, and to your point, the faster pace will assist in this fashion. I want to take a closer look at rebounding though at some point this summer because as we’ve said, to get out and run, Toronto is really going to need to dominate the glass.

And to this point McGateway, you’re right. No one’s replacing Bosh, so the rebounding improvement is going to have to be a giant collective improvement. The key will be with more minutes for some of these players like Kleiza and Wright etc, will they be able to do that?

As well, as I’ll discuss tomorrow morning, my worry next year ironically isn’t the D as much as the O…

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Aug 31, 2010 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

The blame falls on the coach

I root for Jay Triano to succeed as much as anyone, but you gotta place the big share of the blame on the coaching. Any bottom finish in D is a reflection of bad strategy.
Last season Triano and our specialist, Iavoroni failed their assignments.
The key area in improvement, as DW19 stated, has got to come by the coaching. Here’s hoping Calisimo is assigned to Bargnani and kicks him in the ass as needed. I think this might be the beginning a beautiful frienship, Louis.

As per Jay, I think we will see a more confident coach. The goals aren’t lofty, and he has got a good nucleus of young talent. Lets see him bring what all his colleagues think he can bring.

by Tinmann on Aug 30, 2010 7:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice Breakdown. However...

Unfortunately, I find it difficult to get excited about analysing the prospects for the Raptors THIS year, simply because no matter how you slice it, they will be very bad. I know the masses have been clamouring for more “positive thinking” and you did a great job squeezing blood from a stone in this article ; )

What I would love to see is the “Raptors HQ Blueprint” to rebuilding this franchise in the post Bosh era. I think this would be the catalyst for an epic discussion. For example, what is the Franchise 5 year plan? Which players currently on the roster are keepers, which players are commodities, which are expendable? How far off is the team? Do we need to tank for a few seasons, or are we a few plugged holes away from competing? What should be done with the TPE and expiring contracts?

For example, let’s say you would keep Jack, Klieza, DeRozan Johnson, Bargani and Weems as a young Nucleous, who are examples of players you would bring in to fill out the roster? Or maybe you decide that the players mentioned above just aren’t good enough to form a foundation for a franchise…

These are the types of discussions I would love to see leading into this season. I would love to be able to have the discussion, see what Colangelo does and in a few years come back and review the actual outcome versus what we as a group proposed beforehand (even if we don’t all come to a consensus).

by MAS11 on Aug 31, 2010 8:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Those are all interesting questions and good topics for debate(as long as we don’t go down the road of: “Colangelo should have traded Bargnani for Durant like I suggested three years ago!”)

Personally, I like a core of Weems(6th man), DeRozan(SG), Johnson(PF), Davis(3rd big). Barganani has to show me more to be included in that group and Jack seems like a great mentor, but too limited to be the long run starter. I can see Davis and Johnson swapping roles down the road. Amongst the rest you might get some decent role players(Kleiza, Alabi, Wright) if they can focus on what they are good at. Unless DeRozan surprises me, I’d say Toronto is a franchise player and a supporting star away from contending(so, at least two high draft picks or a high pick and a miracle FA signing).

Regarding this season, unless a person is some kind of masochist, there are only really two sensible ways to approach it:
1) Look for ways to get some enjoyment out of what will be a tough year (whether that’s watching the youngsters develop or engaging in shadenfraude against Colangelo, Triano, MLSE or whoever else you happen to hate)
2) Watch the Leafs/college ball/whatever and come back to the Raps in a couple of years when they are better.

by DW19 on Aug 31, 2010 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Disagree about Jack

People have been saying the same thing about Derek Fisher for years. However, he is the heart and soul of that Lakers team. He is a much more effective leader than Kobe. Check out the huddles, more often than not it’s Fisher doing the talking. For all the crap he takes for his declining game, he is a tremendous leader. I can see Jack really turning into a Fisher type of starting point guard.

by Posterized on Aug 31, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

If Jack can pick up Fisher’s knack for hitting crucial shots then maybe he continues to start, but if the team has the option of drafting a Kyrie Irving or some other top PG then I think Jack has to eventually step back into more of a bench role(a la Nate MacMillan for the ’96 Sonics behind Payton and Hawkins).

by DW19 on Aug 31, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I can agree with that

If you have the chance to pick up a stud point guard, you’ve got to take advantage. Even if it means eventually knocking a glue guy to the bench.

by Posterized on Aug 31, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

I've got to agree

I’ve been a bit burnt out with regards to the Raptors as of late, but I could really get into this type of discussion. Come on HQ, kick it off.

by Posterized on Aug 31, 2010 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

They should use the TPE to take on a bad contract and at least 2 draft picks. Realistically they are not going to get a franchise player for the TPE but they could get some picks for it.

by McGateway on Aug 31, 2010 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Tough to find a team willing to part with 2 first-rounders (especially early-first-rounders, best case scenario) just for cap relief. Generally, if a team is wanting cap relief, they want to hold onto their picks, as they represent cheap talent in the near future. I can’t imagine any team would be willing to part with any lottery picks for financial relief.

by dhackett1565 on Aug 31, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Generally I would agree with you, goes against all logic. However, look at what Pheonix did. They either sold or traded away a few first rounders stricktly for Tax reasons a few seasons ago. I do believe though that those instances are very, very rare.

by MAS11 on Aug 31, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Those were also fairly late picks(although I think one of those picks turned out to be Rajon Rondo).

by DW19 on Aug 31, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I can see some picks in the high 20’s happening – but is it worth it to take on long-term salary if the return is a couple 25th overall picks? There are a lot more not-Rondo’s out there than Rondo’s at those spots.

Still, I agree – if it can happen, and the Raps can pick up a couple lotto picks… then this is probably the best case scenario for use of the TPE.

by dhackett1565 on Aug 31, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

I never said anything about where the picks would be located only that they could get 2 picks. A late 1st rounder and a 2nd round pick would be acceptable as long as the contract isn’t overly long.

by McGateway on Aug 31, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s the best you think they can get with the TPE? Is that even worth the price of taking on a long term bad contract?

by dhackett1565 on Aug 31, 2010 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree you aim higher. For that price you would just buy picks at the draft.

If you’re giving a team salary cap relief you ask for more.

by bigweeze on Aug 31, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

The part of your post regarding trading the TPE that jumped out at me was “bad contract”.

Even a decent contract, when it comes close to equally the rather large TPE, is a rather big decision to make. I would use the example of someone who’s paid like an all-star but plays like the third option on a conference contending team. Our team just doesn’t have the player infrastructure to take someone like that on as the last major piece to a contending team. I say last major piece because adding someone like that, at such a large salary, makes it that much harder to get enough breathing room to secure someone even better.

A " bad contract", would then be someone who is paid like a borderline all-star, but who barely has enough game left to qualify as a starter. As dhackett states below, adding a bad contract with significant term left is a nonstarter. A bad contract on a one or two year term…in the past I would have said yes. However, that was before I witnessed the JO contract choke every last bit of flexibility out of the Raptor salary structure. I promise you, someday we will be able to look back at the days of Solomon/Ukic and laugh. Even then, they will serve as a warning to future Raptor GMs who feel that limboing under the luxury tax at the cost of team depth is a good strategy.

I would rather divide the TPE into two parts. One could be used to trade for a short term bad contract. I see the bad contract part as unavoidable, since League rules dictate that we can’t package assets along with the TPE in any transactions. Use the first round pick that comes back the other way to move up in the draft in case the lottery balls don’t go our way. I would trade the second, smaller part of the TPE to a team that is committed to remaining under the luxury tax but has a roster imbalance which is tying up too many dollars in one position. Basically, the Calderon – Jack situation, except at another position. We could also execute a simultaneous transaction, which apparently was what Colangelo tried with Charlotte. The Raptors trade Calderon + fodder for a package of lesser salary commitments including a backup pg. They then trade the TPE for a short term bad (or bad fit) contract and a first round draft pick.

The Raptors would lose the TPE, but they would also lose the remaining years of Calderon’s deal. Team B takes on Calderon’s deal, but this is offset somewhat by unloading salary to Toronto in exchange for the TPE. Our roster has several unproven players who are looking for a chance at big minutes. Thus, there is no great tragedy in having a short term bad contract taking up salary cap space, while leaving minutes for players to show whether they can contribute to a future winning Raptor team.

by Yardly on Aug 31, 2010 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's why you play the game

I can agree with most of the points made on this post. The only thing I don’t agree with is that it is a forgone conclusion that this season is a waste and nothing good can come from it. The team will have less than thirty wins and be a bottom dweller.

Odds are, that is a correct assumption. There is strong logic to support this theory and if I were a betting man I would put my money on that scenario playing out. But at this point in the season we have a chance and there is still hope.

Demar and Weems and Amir could be MIP candidates. Johnson may flourish in his new role and be a thorn in opponents side every game with his tough play at the 4. Bargnani could CONTINUE to improve his scoring and rebounding. Kleiza is young and can score. Jack is a rock and a leader. Jose could be a sparkplug off the bench and be less exposed defensively by not being a starter.

Barbosa may offer more scoring and then you have a bunch of guys who have something to prove. Alabi and Davis have promise. Dorsey is a beast and Wright could be a defensive stopper.

The keys this year are to be exciting, young, tough, hungry and organized. If Triano can show me some of those attributes I believe there is a 10-20% chance we make the playoffs. The fan in me can’t give up yet, because we haven’t even started and we have young talent. Thank you for the positive article and don’t write this team off yet, although I can’t deny the naysayers are probably right at this point.

Go Raps.

by defensive rap on Aug 31, 2010 4:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Very interesting article

Intuitively, I would have thought the loss of Bosh would result in a deterioration in our rebounding so I certainly hope there is something to these numbers. The wild card may well be the SF position. If I recall, we rebounded extremely well for the group of games we had Marion. Maybe Kleiza/Wright can give us something similar from the SF position. Kleiza in particular had very good rebounding numbers from the SF position with Denver.

Kleiza is also having an outstanding FIBA tournament leading Lithuania today in an upset over Spain with 4 points and a key defensive rebound in the final minute to pull it out. I really think he could be our wild card this year.

by cmrm123 on Aug 31, 2010 5:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Your intuition is right. Unless we see our weak rebounders improve by leaps and bounds (Calderon/Bargnani), Bosh’s departure will result in a loss of rebounding.

I posted this in another thread, but Bosh was our best rebounder by rebound rate (17.7) followed by Amir (16.1). Amir is not a straight up replacement for Bosh, and if he is moved to the starting lineup it opens his slot off the bench. Unfortunately for us, Amir’s rebounding seemed to slip as he played more minutes/started which makes sense as he was an energy player off the bench while starting lineups tend to be better at stifling that type of player than second units.

Kleiza should help, though his addition will be balanced by Weems’ increased minutes as Hedo was squarely between the two. Barbosa is about the same or slightly better than Belinelli.

by bigweeze on Aug 31, 2010 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

RaptorsHQ is a growing, interactive community committed to providing the best Raptors and Canadian basketball content on the web.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
outside the top 5
Small
Andrea 2.0 Article
Small
"Go Raps Go" - "um, Daddy; what's a Rap?"
Jordan-sky-high---men_s-eastbay-wp-1152x864_small
Bryan Colangelo: Pay Attention. Here We Go!
Small
Jonas Talks About How His Coach Emphasizes Defense
Small
TORONTO and NEW YORK as trading partners.
Small
Loss of Andrea Bargnani a big blow for Raptors
Jumpman_logo_small
My Raptors Rebuild
Small
lost against Blazers
Small
Time for a facelift?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Managers

2009_0503draft09-20006_-_williams_solo_small Adam Francis

Basketball_20gym_20in_20sun2009-01-27-1233091216_small RaptorsHQ - Howland

Editors

Viciousd_2005-01-20_small Raptors HQ - Vicious D

Authors

Burgundy_small RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance

Img_0813_small rbala