Can Someone Create Their Own Shot?
by Adam Francis on Aug 25, 2010 8:46 AM EDT
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With Chris Bosh now in Miami, the HQ takes a quick look at the current roster and wonders if unlike last year, offence might be an issue, specifically, players creating their own shots...
A few weeks ago, we took a look statistically at Leandro Barbosa, and contemplated how he would be best used by the Toronto Raptors. We noted that he's not an isolation player, so in many respects, the offensive skills he brings to the table are duplicated by players like DeMar DeRozan and Jose Calderon.
Looking over Toronto's current roster recently, I realized that the same could be said for the vast majority of the current edition of the Raptors, and now with Chris Bosh in Miami, that leaves...
...well...
...good question.
As we all know, the Raptors the past few seasons have been pretty much an offensive juggernaut, able to fill up the basket both from the perimeter, thanks to various sharpshooters, and also from inside thanks to Chris Bosh and his nearly 600 free-throw attempts per season. Defensively they've struggled, but the offensive attack was what fans could depend on to in most cases to keep things close, or help the team get back in games they looked to be out of.
However a good chunk of that offence was predicated on the abilities of number 4.
He was a devastating scorer from inside and out, and as mentioned, was one of the best in the league at getting to the line. His ability to create from the low or high post helped set this team's offence in motion, enabling cutting wings like DeRozan and Weems to attack the hoop, or giving open looks to gunners like Calderon, thanks to double-teams etc.
With Bosh gone, it's going to be up to others to initiate the offensive attack. However looking at the Synergy stats for the team last year, there just aren't many players who thrive in isolation situations.
Players like DeRozan, Amir Johnson, and Sonny Weems all thrive off of getting the ball in places where they can use their athleticism, and to a lesser degree, a guy like Jose Calderon needs someone to "make the first move" on offence so he can get open looks for perimeter J's.
Add in inexperienced rookies like Ed Davis and Solomon Alabi, not to mention players like Linas Kleiza and Julian Wright who have been described as black holes on offence to a certain extent, and I'm expecting a number of Kevin O'Neill-ish possessions next year; the ball just sorta sits on the perimeter for 20 seconds before someone has to jack it up.
However there are a few options for Toronto in my opinion, the first being Andrea Bargnani.
Bargs has shown a quickness advantage over most centers and with a good first step and a nice touch from inside 10 feet, he can be a tough guard for other bigs as well as a legit iso threat. He didn't operate that much last year in terms of being an "iso guy," but the hope is that minus Bosh down low, he'll feel more comfortable in a role such as this.
To put it simply, he needs to feel more comfortable for this team to have any success next year.
Outside of Bargs, Jarrett Jack is probably the best iso option the team has in terms of isolation play and while he can be effective in that role as he showed last year, I'm not sure you constantly want the point guard who is supposed to be setting others up, going one-on-one. (Or one-on-five as was the case at times last season.) Ideally a wing player would be the team's "creator" but both Weems and DeRozan need to improve their ball-handling skills before I'm sold on either filling this role.
The reality is that NBA offences are predicated to a large extent on isolation, especially in late shot-clock situations, and if Toronto can't create in the clutch, it's going to be a very long season.
Remember, this team hasn't done a ton to improve defensively so if the offence sputters too, this could get ugly quick.
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Post Game
that’s the real question – do we have ANYONE with a post game?
Davis showed a modest collection of post moves in summer league, but is still very much a work in progress.
Johnson has showed he’s got a nice touch around the basket but has some serious strength issues.
Bargs has had some real successes in the post, but is that not like telling michael jordan he needs to be a catch-and-shoot guard, just because he is a 2? Sure he can do it, but it’s not his strength and it’s not taking full advantage of what he can do.
Weems and Derozan don’t even come into the equation and i have no idea what to expect from Kleiza.
With no one to attact double teams down low, opposing defenses will shut us down man-to-man.
Looks like the only way this team will be successful is with a running game.
I’ve got two more posts similar to this on the way, one dealing with post-play, one dealing with lack of free throw shooting – both which could be major problems sans Bosh.
And I agree, running looks to be the way to go…which probably merits a big post as well.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Aug 25, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
run....
I agree,our running game will/should be our strenght,we have explosive wings and bigs that can run…..my only concern is that we cant run if we dont rebound the ball.
This is a HUGE point…I was writing this post and thinking we need to do a major article or a series in fact, on the importance of rebounding next season for this team.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Aug 25, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
speaks volumes
to the value of athletic rebounders like Joey Dorsey who can run the court and crash the boards.
not to mention, this will be the giant X factor which will determine if the Amir Johnson signing was great or terrible
All in all a.......
“Run Raptors…… Run” will apply…..
I expect the pick+roll/pick+pop to be a huge part of the Raptors half-court offense. Man-to-man defense usually cannot contend with P+Rs, so help will be sent – which should have a similar effect to a player drawing double teams.
by dhackett1565 on Aug 25, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Well at least Bargnani is working on his iso in the offseason....
oh wait he’s playing in that amazing tournament.
Well it’s ok, Italy is paying him big bucks to play… wait… they’re not?
Well at least Calderon is going to be 100%.
Does it not irritate anyone else that the only guys working on their game in the offseason are being paid the least on this team, and the guys making the most money seem to care more about their birth country.
The guys making the most money are the only ones good enough to play for their home countries…
by dhackett1565 on Aug 25, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
The Truth Hurts
The guys making the most money are the only ones good enough to play for their home countries…
Whole heartedly agree…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Aug 25, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Defence
Remember, this team hasn’t done a ton to improve defensively so if the offence sputters too, this could get ugly quick.
I would argue that defence is the only place we probably improved this off season.
It’s funny but after I typed that sentenced, I figured it would catch some heat. My thought process is that while the team kept Amir, lost Hedo, and added Alabi, Davis and Wright, the former two are quite young and inexperienced and Wright hasn’t proven to be the lock-down defender that his athleticism and physical skills say he could be. As well, Kleiza and Barbosa are hardly stoppers and the team lost a good defender in Wright, and I’d argue an underrated one (for the team, not compared to the rest of the NBA) in Bosh.
So to me it’s a bit of a wash in that respect; not much improvement but perhaps baby steps for the future.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Aug 25, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I am hoping that the biggest defensive change from last year to this year will be the Iavaroni-for-Carlesimo swap. I’d argue that the Iavaroni-Triano defensive plan last season tended to be focus on offense for 3 quarters and try to get enough stops down the stretch to win. Hopefully, there will be a change in philosophy with PJ on board.
You are going to take some heat
by defining Bosh a good defender…. ok, he was as good as Drea, so do we say hal of the problems have been solved?
3pts
I think that we will see our consecutive 3pt streak end this season. Probably by the 3rd game of the season.
Between Bargs, Calderon, Jack, Barbosa, Kleiza – pretty sure it will last the year.
by dhackett1565 on Aug 25, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Bargs has to play close to the basket because, who else will? Calderon will be gone.
Between Jack, Barbosa and Kleiza, we’ll get some threes but the streak is dead.
bargs should stay close to the basket
but will he? i doubt it.
our streak will live
our team is always gonna chuck the 3’s no matter what cause thats were best at
Predict the Draft Order Contest - NBA Prize Pack
By the way, wanted to say a big thank you for hooking me up with the NBA prize package that arrived the other day. Always down for some NBA gear!
Thanks again.
Sweet!
Glad it arrived Zona and hope it was something decent ha ha.
For those waiting on copies of Dave Berri’s latest book from our May contest, we’ve still got your info – we’re doing an interview with Berri right now and once we post it and run the final pieces of the contest, all books will be sent out to the winners!
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Aug 25, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
@ Franchise
I agree with you that Bargnani will have to take the offensive reigns next year. Alot of which will have to be iso, but don’t you think this will hurt his rebounding and defense (which are ninja like already). Do you have any stats to make a point either way on this issue (eg. rebounding numbers in games where Bosh was injured and Bargs was the #1 offensive option)?
What I remember from last season, was that when Bosh was out, the Raps had a loosing record and Bargani was actually worse than when Bosh was in the line-up. I think it will be interesting to see how Bargani reacts to nightly double teams if he ends up being the number 1 option…
This what I’m most excited about regarding next season…which is kinda sad in a way; “will Bargs take the next step without Bosh?”
As you pointed out MAS – he certainly didn’t do it last season over a handful of games.
And to your question PNUTZ, will an increase in his offense efforts result in even less of a defensive presence?? Remember, when Bosh was paired with superior offensive options with team USA, it allowed him to be a much more dominant defender. Back with the Raptors where he was the “be-all, end-all” offensively, he looked medicore at best…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Aug 25, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Bargnani
Andrea is the Go To guy for Italy at Eurobasket tourney, playing at center with help from Belinelli.
Andrea, 7gms, AVG 30 mins 22.7pts,18FGA, 50%FG, 7rbs, 2blks, 4.7FTA, 72.7FT%, Italy 4-1 after losing first 2 games, now 4-3. Last game he was 9/13 FTA so looks like he can play at the basket also, and definately carry a team. He is 2nd in scoring and blocks in the tourney and also had a game of 30pts and 13 rebounds.
Andrea last year without Bosh 17.3ppg and 5.5rpg, and for year 17.2 and 6.2.
Team last year without CB went 5-8 and 103.7PF-107.6PA and for year 104.1PF-105.9PA. The key is not how they will score, but how much better will they be in defending consistently ?
hmmm
promising stats! would like to see a bit more rebounds – hopefully 8 next year if he is playing 35min
definitely needs more FTA but i LOVE the 50% FG
where did you find the stats?
Not as promising as I had hoped
considering the level of opposition compared to that of the NBA. I would have like have seen 10 RPG against world class amatuers. I was looking more for last years NBA stats. But thanks all for the responses.
Threw together a quick spreadsheet here:
http://www.raptorshq.com/2010/8/25/1650319/bargs-sans-bosh
by dhackett1565 on Aug 25, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn Hackett!
Thanks, that was quick and in depth. I especially like the comment about Bosh having a broken face. So i guess his boards dropped a bit.
The rebounding numbers might be better than they look
I might be wrong on this but Eurobasket rebounding numbers are generally lower given that even the bigs are perimeter oriented. What’s his ranking rebounding wise for the tournament?
Happiness is that which gets lost in the details of its pursuit.
by HQ Interloper on Aug 25, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I think bargs can step up and be our iso guy
by raptors_run_the_show on Aug 25, 2010 1:32 PM EDT reply actions
jarret jack will be the biggest surprise
his numbers will skyrocket this season, trust. hes going to take the leadership role, but bargs will definitely be our top scorer as BC and triano will make him the go-to guy. which may not be the best thing to do especially with all of our young guys trying to make a name for themselves in the league. look for jarret to be our second top scorer
Has anyone else noticed the tone of these posts is one of excitment
I must admit I’m more excited for this year’s raptors then since Bargnani’s sophmore year (which really ended poorly)…
Where do you think Bargs will rank in Dwyer's list of NBA Centres
All things considered I think he’s in top 5. If It’s about how he’ll do in 2010/2011, being the focal point of the team (regardless of record) he has to be considered amongst the top 5 performing centres for he upcoming season. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out.
Happiness is that which gets lost in the details of its pursuit.
I wish… the perception outside of Raps fans isn’t even as high as Raps fans’ opinions! (Which are kind of low).
But I agree – on the premise that it is for the upcoming season, he should be top 10 no doubt, borderline top 5.
by dhackett1565 on Aug 26, 2010 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I go back to my list last year: http://www.raptorshq.com/2009/8/4/977291/where-does-andrea-bargnani-rank
Bargs' 2010 To Do List
This is the make or break year for Bargs. In order to be successful I think he has to do the following:
1. Protect the rim with improved rebounding and shot blocking. Although he is a 7 ft big man with good agility and great length he plays small. He needs to use that length to block and alter shots and clean the glass so we can get out on the break. 8 rebs and 2 blocks per game should be the goal. Definitley attainable.
2. Continue to grow and round out his offensive game. Right now his post up game consists of fade away jumpers over smaller defenders. Not good enough. He needs to improve his footwork with a combination of drop step, up and under and spin moves that he can use against smaller defenders to complement his existing outside game that he can use against bigger defenders. And he needs to stop settling for jumpers and attack the rim more. Basically he needs to become Dirk.
3. Improve his shooting. I just don’t think he is as good a shooter as people give him credit for. He must get to 50% from 2 and 40% from 3 and 85% from the line. All of these are within reach. He just has to finally do it.
4. Improve his passing. He doesn’t have to score to be effective. He can also be a decoy. Great passing big men like Gasol and Duncan can pick defenses apart with crisp passing. Bargs can too.
5. Play with some passion. Italians are supposed to be passionate people, but when I watch Bargs play he seems disinterested in the game about 90% of the time. That has to stop. Don’t let people push you around, you are huge!! Be the leader on defense and tell players where they need to be. Start yelling and screaming after a great play. Celebrate. Anything to assert yourself and get more into the game.
Admittedly, I am more of a Bargs’ skeptic than a Bargs’ fan at this point. But I could be convinced otherwise. The Eurobasket stats posted above, while not comparable to the grind of an 80 game NBA season, show that the potential is there. I’m just sick of hearing about the potential and want to see some results.
Make it happen Bargs!
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