"All-In" - Bryan Colangelo's High Stakes Game of Poker
Franchise wonders if Bryan Colangelo still thinks he can win the ultimate poker challenge even though he's exhausted all outs...
When Bryan Colangelo first came to the Toronto Raptors just over four years ago, it seemed almost too good to be true.Here was one of the most respected men in basketball, leaving the comfy confines of a juggernaut Phoenix Suns organization to come help a beleaguered Raptors squad; a squad that just finished driving its franchise player out of town and winning 27 games.
Things went from bleak to bright in the blink of an eye.
Colangelo and his brain-trust immediately went to work moving dead weight like Rafael Araujo, and mining Europe for key players like Anthony Parker and Jorge Garbajosa.
He convinced Chris Bosh to stick around, and with a 47 win season and Atlantic Division crown in Colangelo's first in charge, it was pretty tough not to be excited about the team's future.
However as we know, things soured the following season and since BC's inaugural year in charge, it's been almost all downhill since then. Even though the team had a bit of a rebound season record-wise last year, it was still considered a disappointment as most envisioned Toronto to be at the least a playoff squad.
Mixed in with the team disappointments is the fact that the Raptors have been trying to retain star player Chris Bosh, a member of the vaunted 2003 draft class which also featured the likes of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Since the trio signed extensions with their respective clubs a few seasons ago, speculation has been rampant about their futures and its culminated in what is already becoming the most anticipated NBA off-season in years. The media has been calling this summer things like "The Summer of LeBron" for some time and ESPN.com has even gone as far as building a widget allowing their readers to essentially play a game to decide the trio's fate regarding which teams they end up with next season.
Therefore while winning games and getting out of the first round of the playoffs may have been Bryan Colangelo's supreme mandate upon arrival, retaining the services of Bosh and getting him the help he needed was certainly priority 1 B.
To this end, a few years ago, I likened Colangelo's attempts to keep Bosh to a high-stakes game of Texas Hold'em Poker.
In his first round of the game, cards like TJ Ford, Parker and Garbajosa seemed to give him a good shot at taking the pot. However he traded those in, and the cards received in exchange weren't a better fit, leaving him with only a few outs.
Those outs (or "The Flop") were essentially cards like Jermaine O'Neal, Shawn Marion, and even the drafting of DeMar DeRozan.
None gave Colangelo the team or hand he desired, and from my viewpoint, that left him with two last chances with which to improve the club and keep Chris Bosh; "the Turn Card" and of course, the "River."
To me, the turn card became Hedo Turkoglu.
This was the big bet last off-season and the hope was it would not only spur the Raptors on to playoff success, but it would also convince Bosh to stick around for another contract.
We all know how that turned out.
Not only did the card not fit with the rest of Colangelo's hand, but it became so devalued (thanks to Hedo's recent public statements) that it's hard to believe many of the other poker players at the table have much use for it either at this point.
That brings us to the river, BC's final out.
By the end of the season, to me, the only thing that might change Bosh's mind about leaving would be a top 3 draft pick and therefore by last month's NBA Draft Lottery, Colangelo was "all-in;" here was a frustrated General Manager standing at the poker table, four cards (O'Neal, Marion, DeRozan and Turkoglu) all turned up with one last card in play. If The River did turn up a top 3 pick, then perhaps he could still keep Bosh and live to play another round. If not, then there was a very good chance he'd have to blow the whole thing up.
And the card was...
...pick number 13 in this year's draft.
The point of this analogy was really to try and illustrate how many proverbial "kicks at the can" Colangelo had the past few seasons in effort to keep CB4 and get this team to the next level. He simply didn't get the job done.
Early hands wasted bets on cards like Jason Kapono and Fred Jones, not to mention smaller, but no less fruitless, bets on ones like PJ Tucker and Nathan Jawai.
The team that showed so much promise four years ago with a new GM and the number one pick overall in the 2006 draft, now faces the reality of perhaps a complete rebuild considering its franchise player has at least one foot out the door, and was hardly a powerhouse last season even with his services.
So let me ask you now - is it time for Colangelo to admit defeat and re-stock for the next Poker tourney? Or should he "buy back in" this off-season, convinced he still has the ability to turn things around with a few small personnel changes?
I've been in the former camp for some time now and considering it's likely that Toronto gets ten cents on the dollars that are Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu, I'm not sure the latter is even an option at this point. The team quite possibly could return only a "core" of Andrea Bargnani, Jarrett Jack, Sonny Weems, DeMar DeRozan and Marco Belinelli next year. Not exactly NBA Finals material. Colangelo may simply have to take what he can get in trades for Bosh and Turk and then start from scratch.
The problem is, by Colangelo's comments it would seem that he's not close to thinking about a re-build situation and so it wouldn't be surprising to see him "buy-in" for another go at the table.
We'll really know whether this is the situation as we get closer to the draft in fact.
Should the pick be a player with limited upside but who can contribute right away, it will be pretty obvious which way BC is going and while I'm convinced his hand is up and he needs to look forward to the next tourney, something tells me this is a man who's still stubbornly convinced he's got an ace hidden up his sleeve.
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I can't stand this....
‘a squad that just finished driving its franchise player out of town’
That d-bag was giving anything he wanted from parking spots for his mom to Hakeem…. and then he quit when his very request, demands and expectations started to tear the team apart. I don’t get this nostalgic Wince revisioinist history. The dude quit on the fans before the fans quit on him.
Please stop pretending like the team or the fans had anything to do with Vince. Alvin Williams gave up his career for a playoff run. Antonio Davis put himself and his rep. on the line for the team. JYD gave his heart and soul to the team and to the fans. Vince decided he didn’t need to dunk anymore and layups (which turned out to be random jumpshots) were just as good. I quote… ‘I dogged it’.
Maybe I’m reading too much into a minor statement and its old news now…. but it boggles my mind that as time goes by more and more people look back at that part of Raps history and pretend that something could have been done with Vince. The rest of his career has shown exactly what he is.
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Jun 7, 2010 9:14 AM EDT reply actions
Still with the VC BS?
That is probably the reason why no one wants to play here. I’m not a fan of how he left, but he put Toronto on the map in the NBA. What other nostalgia is there in Toronto Raptors history? Zan Tabak? I’m sure the elite players in the NBA look at us and say, what a great fanbase, they boo Carter but Pops gets a standing ovation? I’d love to play there. I’m sorry to say this to you but VInce had EVERYTHING to do with the limited sucess this team has had. JYD and Alvin Williams were good hardworking players but you could have swapped them with any of the similiar players in the league at that time, Vince was the X factor. True he did turn out to be a douche, but what does that have to do with booing him over half a decade later. The management and front office in TO is brutal, we don’t boo them every game.
I'm not saying Vince doesn't have a place in Raps History...
… but its the statements that infer that fans drove him out of town.
If Vince was traded without a trade demand I guarantee he would still be cheered to no end. If he didn’t make statements like ‘I dogged it’ or ‘I don’t want to dunk anymore’ he wouldn’t get booed. Any and all NBA fans cheer and appreciate hard work (its not exclusive to Toronto)… regardless of whether its the 15th man or the best player on the team.
Its not a matter of him being booed or not… to me thats irrelevant. Its the ‘team, fans, execs. etc drove him out of town’ I have a problem with.
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Jun 7, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Good point
I think the perception by US media was more that he wanted out of Toronto but we all know that he didn’t exactly do himself any favours.
That being said, as PNUTZ notes, the management didn’t exactly manage the talent around him that well in his later years and deserve some of the criticism.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jun 7, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
You are quite the diplomat Franchise...
I wasn’t trying to start a big thing, I just get sick of hearing people still complaining about VC. I still think Vince was unhappy about the management which doesn’t give him an excuse for his actions, but can’t we move on. We have someone even better in Hedo whose attitude and play have insprired such gems as the monacre “The Ottoman” and his own real time countdown.
Nice write
Hedo would be the last card in a royal flush of the smelly kind. I find it hard to comment on the overall situation that Colangelo is in because I don’t understand all the stuff about the cap however I think that for the Raps to be competitive, they would need to spend the type of money that the top teams spend and that’s not going to happen.
The winning teams are spending about 20 mill more a year and it’s paying off in terms of wins. You can fool yourself and think that coaching or some intangable can make up for the lack of spending but it aint goin to happen. So, Colangelo will pull off a few neat trades but in the end, come October, they will be a long shot to make the playoffs. It’s all about how many chips you throw in the pot.
It’s all about how many chips you throw in the pot.
Another solid point.
It would help with a “buy-back-in” scenario if MLSE opens the bank…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jun 7, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely
Great point – I think I could have written another paragraph or two now to continue the analogy. BC needs to pull off one of the greatest bluffs ever to find value for a number of players who simply haven’t lived up to their billing.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jun 7, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
So many opportunities!
CB had 7 good years here. He did his part but never had the right mix of players, either lacking in skillset or character.
As we found out this year with Cleveland, it takes more than one great player to be a successful playoff team.
I am ready to move on with CB. I just think the stank of failure over the last few years has created a negative mindset with him.
I like the position we are in right now.
Last year this time, we were hopelessly stuck with no caproom and a roster that no one could possibly interest any teams in any trade scenarios.
Somehow, BC was able to pulloff some moves that I thought were impossible.
As it turns out, the moves did not work out as planned.
I said at the start of last season, no matter how things turn out, I would not blame BC if the season was a failure.
He did his part. It was up to the players.
This off-season presents so many opportunities for change that we did not have a year ago.
We have pieces that have value to other teams, either as role players or expiring contracts along with CB and Hedo(nt). Players that can contribute to already competitive teams.
I feel, and I am sure I am in the minority, that the best thing that could happens would be if CB did not return. Too much water under the bridge.
The best case scenario with CB, would be having him sign with Chicago or Houston. Both these teams have young players that have potential to become solid NBAers (ie. Aaron Brooks, Taj Gibson, James Johnson, to name a few).
Bynum from the Lakers would be a huge mistake. His soon to be arthritic knees would be an albatross for this franchise.
Hedo’s douche-baginess has provided us with an out to having the softest frontcourt in the league.
We have Reggie, Belli, Jose, Banks and even Antoine (in a S&T) to offer up for players and picks. A much better situation than last year this time.
Then, we have pick #13 and the chance to pickup another 1st rounder using the aforementioned players as trade fodder.
I am LOVING this years draft prospects. There will be players available to us at #13 and later in the first round that will make this a better team over the next couple seasons.
My personal favorite is SF Paul George. 5 years from now, he will be one of the top 3 players in this draft. Time will tell if it is just the crack talking, but that is what I believe.
There are also some bigs available that can help this team in Udoh, Aldrich, Sanders, Davis.
Some SF’s we can get later with a second 1st rounder are Stanley Robinson and Damion James.
All these players I have mentioned play DEFENSE.
With Bargs in our frontcourt, the 2 remaining frontcourt players MUST be above-average defensive players to compensate.
Without 2 above-average frontcourt players, this will NEVER be an above average defensive team, and therefore, not a team that can be successful in the playoffs.
I am very excited about the opportunities we have n front of us.
With the changes available to us and the core of Derozan, Weems, Johnson and Jack, we have a great opportunity.
BC has done more with less in the past. I have little doubt he realizes that defense is this teams Achilles Heel.
He must acquire only players who are not defensive liabilities to move this franchise forward.
I cannot wait to see how this off-season unfolds.
Bynum
21 and 6 with 7 blocks against the Celtics:)
Don't love Bynum but...
…I’d take him in a flash over a number of other options out there.
Frankly if you could get him and move Hedo for ANYTHING, draft a swingman like Henry or George and re-sign Amir…that’s a decent start is it not?
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jun 7, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Rebuild off the table
Myself I think the traditional rebuild where you liquidate every high paid vet, tank a season or two to get high draft picks is not an option for BC. He just couldn’t live that down, no way no how.
As far as the the poker analogy, I’m with you (and RT) but at the same time, it gives me more sympathy for BC… you have to gamble to win in poker and at least he had outs when he made his move. He never claimed he had the nuts anyways, though he’s always going to talk up his hand.
Beyond that, he’s not exactly on the couch watching tv, he’s still at the table with a medium stack. He doubles up a couple times and he’s right back in it…
Medium stack vs. short stack
I must say, I love the poker analogy to describe the Raptors’ current situation. However, I’d question whether they’re a medium stack.
When your franchise player has one foot out the door, you’re drafting 13th, and you’re tied to massively overpaid contracts like Turkoglu, Bargnani and Calderon… that’s about as short stacked as you can get.
At least with a team like the Nets, they sucked last season – but you’ve got building blocks like Lopez and Harris, the 3rd overall pick, lots of cap space, a billionaire owner, and a move to Brooklyn on tap.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Jun 7, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess that’s the good thing about the situation – a couple solid hands in which BC doubles up and Toronto might be right back in the game.
We’ll see if he’s able to do that in the next few weeks.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jun 7, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
This pretty mcuh says it all
Set a record by getting banned for the 8th time!
After rehab I saw the light and promise to be kinder and gentler!
Probation is a very slippery slope!
Cricket Cricket
Unfortunately based on Colangelo’s draft history, this isn’t out of the question…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jun 7, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Notable ommissions
They left out Aldrich, Udoh, Orton and pretty well all the other viable options that have already been in for workouts. It makes for a funny cheapshot, but a pretty unlikely scenario.
Plus, there’s a reason why they’ve brought all these late first round / second rounders in: What the heck do you think is coming back in return for Bosh? Nobody is trading a superstar for CB4. If he gets dealt to a team like the Lakers or Cavs (for example), you’re staring at one of the last picks in the first round and maybe some role players.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Jun 7, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep – and not sure if anyone’s read the horrible Slam piece on the 13th pick but it’s not much better. Not that I don’t see Toronto taking Patterson if he falls to them, but the article itself well…just isn’t that funny and comes off as trying WAY too hard.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jun 7, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Luck a factor
One other way that your metaphor rings true is that in poker you can make a lot of well calculated moves and still lose if your card doesn’t turn up. Not to say Colangelo’s tenure has been without mistakes, but any number of things that are totally out of his control could have gone differently and the team might be looking great right now (for example: Garbajosa never gets injured, Bargnani or DeRozan turn out to be instant studs, Oden/Durant are draft elligible the year TO has #1 pick, Bosh not injured this year and Raps make playoffs, etc, etc, etc….)
Agreed
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jun 7, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
can't agree more
luck is the one thing that can turn around (for good or bad) in a second.
Every team deals with it in one way or another. No team has turned into a contender without it. Every perennial loser has a lack of it. (seriously how do the Clippers suck this bad for so long and are never able to turn a pick into a bonafide superstar?)
by Not so Friendly Stranger on Jun 7, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Another angle
Since the money will not be forth coming to buy a playoff team, then perhaps it would be best to make what ever moves possible to get good young talent. Try to duplicate to some extent what the Thunder have done this year. Add to the core of Jack, Derozen, Weems, Bargnani and Johnson with the best big man available at 13, then add some young players who can defend. Try to get an affordable scorer like Rip Hamilton from Detroit or Jamal Crawford from Atlanta and ask them to become the number one option. Then let the cards fall where they may.
Doom & Gloom – OR - A New Season
.
I’m leaning towards a new season, and potential opportunities.
.
Hedo – The pizza muncher will move on. His final year will get tossed aside – Hedo will forgo the player option in a trade, meaning 31.8 million and 3 years will be left. With Orlando going down, I think Turk’s value rose from the dead. Someone will bite – the thinking being … "it’s Toronto. No wonder he played like shit".
.
Bosh – CB will be the "top free agent" transferring teams. Something tells me LeBron will stay; Wade as well; leaving Chris to garner his MAX contract. However, until James commits, the rest of the dominos will stay standing.
.
Jose – Our beloved PG will travel somewhere, either before the season starts, or before the trade deadline.
.
That leaves a lot of holes to fill. I get the sense that BC is hoping for not such a drastic reboot, although (potentially) losing 36 million in Big Salary guys, implies a big change for any team. That doesn’t include another 9.3 million in ending salaries (Amir, Wright, POB, and Rasho). Banks & Evans are tradable commodities. Either now, or before the trade deadline.
.
Maybe a reboot is in order.
Fold
The problem is we’ve been trying to play everyhand from early position! I think it’s time to fold a few hands until we pick up something premium with good position.
So we’ve got a few marginal hands dealt to us, but that’s b-ball. Winning teams folded often to pickup draft picks to be where they are. Even a team like Clevland who picked up bullets weren’t able to do much with it. Well I guess with Lebron it’s more like big slick than pocket rockets, he is the King afterall.
Time to fold, and reshuffle the deck!
many rumors circulating the mills apparently raptors are inquiring about the number 2 pick
from philly and they are demanding demar derozan and our first pick and some other pieces
by raptors_run_the_show on Jun 7, 2010 7:44 PM EDT reply actions
Actually, I would do that deal in a heartbeat especially since we have Weems to play the wing already. It doesn’t make sense to hang onto DD because who knows how good he will be one day (or not good) while some of the guys at the top of the draft are franchise changing players. If these rumours are true then BC better not mess it up. If they want Bargnani, give him to them with their choice of DD or Weems or Belinelli. I really do not care what it takes so long as we can move up.
I think if Bosh leaves, Colangelo needs to start again. He’s had some bad luck and some bad decisions, but remember, Bond lost badly the first time. As long as you learn from your mistakes…
Tim W.
The Picket Fence
love the poker talk
makes me wanna go play some cards after reading this post lol but yesterday someone posted up a trade scenrio involveing mo williams coming here for jose calderon..even doug smith on his blog mentioned today that rumor is going around, should bc do that trade if its possible?
No offense but I just do not see the poker analogy being accurate here because stranger things have happened. Personally I think if you are going to use the poker analogy then you have believe that we are still on the turn with a 1% chance that something comes on the river that will give us the win (call it the suck-out factor). Even in the real world weird things happen all the time that just completely confuse you and make you question everything you know about things. Even though there seems to be no interest in Turkoglu right now, come draft night things can change. I have very little faith in the teams management right now but I have even less faith in some other teams in the NBA’s management as well. Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction.
Maybe we can trade our Joker (Hedo) for a couple of Sacramento Kings?
“Sources: Turkoglu longs for return to Kings”
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AuU.b3xprzODGCPJzlDht1O8vLYF?slug=ys-turkogluraptors060810
I would think that any trade with Sacaramento would have to involve Nocioni and his big contract ($7.5M/year… but at least it’s 2 years shorter than Turkoglu’s). The only other “bad contract” players on the Kings are Beno Udrih (who the Raps definitely don’t need) and Francisco Garcia (who seems to play a similar bench scorer role to Belinelli, but with 2x the salary).
Maybe something like: Nocioni and Sacramento’s 2nd Round Pick (#33 overall) for Hedo?
Is it sad that I think that’s a great trade for the Raptors?
Collangello Should Be On Borrowed Time
Other than his first year in Raps land, the rest of his big moves are pretty bad. I’m beginning to think BC is was overrated coming to the Raps, that Steve Nash made just about everyone look better than they were ie. past/current coaches, players etc. Collangelo’s ability to see the big picture is proving to be less than stellar. He says this team is close, I would disagree immensely. He’s great at wheeling and dealing, but for all his efforts, the Raps are mediocre at best. They lack heart and soul, not even close to being a consistent winner capable of enforcing their will on the best teams. I’d give him one more year to decide if he stays or goes. The Jays waited 8 years before they turfed Riccardi’s ass out the door, had they not done this, they’d still be playing like losers without hope. ….if Bosh truly had confidence in BCs long term ability, wouldn’t he stick around??


















