Sunday Thought - To Spend or Not to Spend...or Does it Even Matter?
A quick poll on what is a dreary Sunday here in Toronto, and before we jump back into a full slate of off-season coverage all next week.
We've been over Toronto's "cash issues" and most of us are assuming Bosh is walking...but could Bryan Colangelo turn things around in one fell swoop with MLSE's approval to spend like the Knicks?
Ok, maybe not the Knicks...but would the ability to add onto Toronto's already bloated payroll help get this ship back on course? Right now, there's not much loot for making key additions but let's say MLSE agreed to even head to the New Orleans'-ish $70 to $72M range for next season? Would that make a big difference in terms of team record?
I guess it depends on how confident you now are in Bryan Colangelo. BC had lots of loot last off-season with which to use for upgrades and...well...it wasn't exactly Transformers II, but the results were hardly Avatar either...
Late last week, Tom Liston at Raps Repub discussed the notion that the NBA's top teams currently are the ones who spend the most. While over NBA history this correlation hasn't been true, as of late, we are seeing the top spenders be on average better performers than the rest of their NBA brethren.
But is there much out there to spend on this summer?
After the Bosh's and Amare's are gone, there are a lot of Childresses and Goodens...
Over-spend or not, make no mistake about it, this off-season is one where Bryan Colangelo needs to show the NBA world that he hasn't lost his mojo. He's apparently feeling the heat right now, and rightfully so after some extremely questionable decisions and unflattering results.
34 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Spend on picks
Trade Banks and Evans (expiring contracts) for cash / picks.
Then, the only players you have unders contract are:
Bargnani
Calderon
Hedo
Jack
Derozan
Weems
Belinelli
That leaves 5 roster spots open.
Let’s assume that you also:
- either sign Bosh or Sign&Trade for David Lee / Luis Scola / etc.
- Bring Amir back
You now have 3 roster spots open:
1 for the #13 pick
2 open
Use those 2 open spots for draft picks.
Trade Calderon, and hopefully you can get a late 1st round pick in return (Memphis at #25 and #28 could use a PG — plus they have Marc Gasol, who I’m sure wouldn’t mind playing with Jose).
So in this scenario – say the team gets back a Scola package – how good can this team be? 40 wins again? More? Or are we looking at a full rebuild?
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
colangelo and stress
So it has come down to this…trial by fire for BC.
Will this pressure make diamonds, or implode?
I know that BC has roll’d the dice and come up craps with the JO, Turkoglu nonsense etc- so who is not to say that he is due for a win (like dice or baseball)
Perhaps Toronto’s dice will turn up right and be made of diamonds, maybe they implode into dust, or we come up craps ….again…
time for BC to metaphorically call home and ask is there is any spare room in the basement?… Somehow I think he is better than that….
I’m going to talk about this in depth at some point but I wonder if the game hasn’t changed more than BC would like to admit. He’s still making moves that worked in the late 90’s and early 2000’s whereas his successor in Phoenix, after initially adopting a similar methodology (the trade for 90’s Shaq), has now gotten into the 2010’s with his recent acquisitions emphasizing grit, athleticism, speed and defence.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
BC is on the bender of all benders. If he was gambling at a casino we would be having an intervention for him right now as he chances bad bet after bad bet trying with the “If I can just get lucky once I can turn this around, come on hard 8”. How much rope do you think he should get as he has basically boxed himself in by rewarding mediocre players with star contracts based on half a season of play (Calderon and Bargnani) in situations where he was only competing against himself. Add Turk and how poorly he (Turk) and the coaching staff handled the situation and he has some serious problems. Those whispers that Bosh heard at the all-star game were that his team was crap and he needed to leave. That is why he had his “ankle” injury when he did. To see if the team was worth coming back to. JUST A THEORY.
And I love the casino analogy. I think that pretty much nails it.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on May 10, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
i think we should try to go after iggy this might make bosh stay because iggy would eb a reliuable numebr 2 for bosh and i think turk would be good for them because he can handle the ball n lou williams would be like jameer for them. Hedo isnt a bad player he just doesnt fit in with toronto’s system
by raptors_run_the_show on May 9, 2010 11:50 AM EDT reply actions
The problem with this scenario is that Jrue Holiday is the PG of the future not Lou Williams. Williams will play the 2 or back up Jrue. I agree it would be nice to get Iggy especially since I think Philly will continue to shop him hard in the offseason but they are doing it to dump salary not swap bad contracts. I think Toronto would have greater luck getting Iggy if they take Brands contract as well. If they do that then Bosh is gone anyways.
This is a trade i would love to see... and it works perfectly
To Golden State Warriors: Chris Bosh (PF, 24.0 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 2.4 APG), Fourth Round Draft Pick (2010)
To Toronto Raptors: Monta Ellis, (G, 25.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 5.3 APG), Andris Biedrins (PF, 5.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.7 APG), Second Round Draft Pick (2010, 35th Overall)
Problem is Bosh holds all the cards here – unless G State’s sure he’d re-sign there, they’d never make this trade. And right now, that looks highly unlikely meaning the list of trade options for Toronto essentially looks like this:
-New York
-Chicago
-Miami
-Houston
-Dallas…
…and that’s about it.
PS – There is no “fourth round” in teh draft so that wouldn’t work either.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
re: MLSE and spending
While the leadership of MLSE may not be bball savvy, I’m sure they will look upon how the Raptors spend compared to their other sports properties. I am going to use the NHL as a rough example. There is a cap, but that doesn’t mean all the teams are spending to the limit. Those that are in a rebuilding mode are usually closer to the mandated salary cap floor, since a portion of their team is still playing out their rookie deals. They also lack the inflated contracts that bog down teams that shop for quick fix help in free agency.
The Maple Leafs, through necessity in a hard cap world, have been waiting out the expiration of their most deadweight contracts. I believe, at least in the short term, that the Raptors should be made to do the same. This doesn’t mean I’m opposed to trading expiring deals for contributing players on longer term deals. Quite frankly, I see this as the only way for us to import established talent worth having. However, trying to jettisen contracts with draft picks to get help THIS offseason, seems foolhardy and short sighted.
The article that Franchise cited, talks about BC moving forward with a four year plan, and soldiering on through some adversity. Here, here.
The Four Year Plan
I think one of the problems was that BC got too anxious after the first year of success with Toronto, and got ahead of himself in the rebuild process. Had he not grabbed Kapono etc, then he wouldn’t have had to move draft picks and sacrifice cap space…and therefore be in the mess he’s currently in.
So now is BC advocating ANOTHER four years to fix things? Hmmmm…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
The problem with your Maple Leaf theory is that Burke traded away two high draft picks for an injured 40 goal scorer who caps at about 70 points per season. Not exactly the move of a team in rebuild mode. The Raptors are run exactly like the Leafs – Snow the fans by saying your going for it and then come up short or just make the playoffs and bow out quickly, whatever it takes to not have to pay a lot of money to the players. Remember they are owned by a Pension fund whose sole concern is MAKING MONEY. That is why the Raptors will not go hard at the luxury tax. At most they will dip their toes (say 2-5 mil) unless it is clear they could win a championship. Does anyone actually believe Toronto can make enough moves this offseason to do that?
Leafs were a high payroll team before the cap and still are up there. Raptors spend alot of money poorly. If anything, MLSE should be tightening the purse strings or getting better management. Although, they tried to get the best out there and ended up with these two…
See that is how they trick you. MLSE will not lose money and put a winner out there. It is better to have a losing team that makes money for them. They can “spend” a lot of money and look good but still have a mediocre product and make money. The Raptors haven’t hit luxury tax territory very much throughout their history and that is pretty much what it will require to become a true contender.
The point of spending more money right now is moot. We cannot conceivably spend our way to a championship until the core of the roster improves relative to their salary. Unfortunately we have locked up our guys to long term deals.
Pray.
In 10-20 years when we have a decent core we can talk about MLSE’s tight-fistedness. Until then, it doesn’t matter who owns the team. Spending into the luxury tax or not spending matters very little.
re spending
Colangelo has a mandate from MLSE to build a competitive, winning team ongoing at what the cost will be, which considering the current commitments will require going over the tax limit to improve the win totals from the 40’s to the 50’s, and playoff competitveness.
“considering current commitments”
That is the main issue which my viewpoint boils down to. The TJFord-JO-Marion-Turk transaction chain, ate up resources and added salary commitments which hinder flexibility. If we were ready for that next step, and by that I mean legit top four conference contender status, then I would champion a trip into the luxury tax. However, when I look at this roster I just don’t see it. Additional resources would make the short term more appealing, but seeing as most of those dollars would be spent retaining current personnel (ie Johnson), I don’t see how the team itself could make the jump from close to .500 to win totals in the 50s in one offseason.
Another question is if a GM is better off saving the “Spend Over Tax Free” cards until the key components of the team’s core are playing their best collective basketball. Those that see Bargnani growing into his role as a center would agree that he will be better in two years. The same could be said for DeRozan, who would have hopefully polished his ballhandling skills in time for his eligibility for a long term deal. I don’t see the team being close to top four conference contender status until both of the aforementioned Raptors are playing at a higher level then they are now. Same goes for Sonny Weems, and Amir Johnson if he returns to the team.
If Bosh returns, then I would revise my argument to suit the advanced time table for contention the team would be on. However, until he puts pen to paper I will view him as an unknown, and plan around his departure.
If I was MLSE, I would sit back and see how Colangelo works with the various moving parts at his disposal this offseason. The Toronto-bound assets in a potential Bosh S&T will play a part, both in replenishing our bigmen depth and adding / strengthening depth at various positions and skillsets.
1) Even on a team with Bosh, positive veteran leadership (that still has game, sorry Derrick Martin) should be a secondary goal to adding as much talent as possible. A mentor for DeRozan and Weems on the wing, and a veteran bigman who was once a starter, and works his butt off to keep his career going with the end in sight. In our expansion era days, didn’t we have several of those types of bigman types in Ed Pickney, Tony Massenburg, and Popeye Jones. I’m sure any potential Bosh trade partner would have one on the end of the bench they could include.
2) A quick pg that can take advantage of the no-handcheck rules on the perimeter. A look at the draft list doesn’t yield any accomplished pg in this year’s crop. Perhaps we can take advantage of a team where one member of a platoon has eclipsed the other. All you ever hear about with Houston is Aaron Brooks, how would Kyle Lowry look backing up Jarret Jack / Jose Calderon. Minnesota is currently starting Jonny Flynn, with Ramon Sessions backing him up, and Ricky Rubio’s North American adventure a year away from starting. While Sessions is more accomplished (and expensive) then your typical backup, Calderon and Jack haven’t proven they deserve an uncontested reign at the position. While they may be good teammates, it is also telling that neither Jack nor Calderon was able to convincingly wrest the starters title and lion’s share of the minutes, away from the other.
Dealing with resigning our current free agents, adding veteran leadership, and solving the pg conundrum should keep BC plenty busy this offseason. And who knows, if his moves pan out he may be having the luxury tax conversation with ownership earlier then any of us could have imagined in a post-Bosh world.
100% in Agreement
If we were ready for that next step, and by that I mean legit top four conference contender status, then I would champion a trip into the luxury tax. However, when I look at this roster I just don’t see it. Additional resources would make the short term more appealing, but seeing as most of those dollars would be spent retaining current personnel (ie Johnson), I don’t see how the team itself could make the jump from close to .500 to win totals in the 50s in one offseason.
I haven’t come right out and said it yet, because I need to think through some things a bit more, but right now I’m leaning more and more towards a rebuild for many of the points above.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
Deficit of Leadership
Just food for thought.
Since 2006-2007, we have lost Mo Pete, Jorge Garbajosa, and Anthony Parker. Other “leaders” included TJ Ford and Darrick Martin.
Just something that ran through my head.
Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com Twitter @RapHQVicious
by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on May 9, 2010 8:57 PM EDT reply actions
Think that's a good blog post D...
…totally agree.
Watching these playoffs we’ve seen the likes of Nash, Hill, Kobe, Gasol, LeBron and (gulp) Parker and on and on, all help guide their clubs when it was needed.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
mission impossible
its impossible for us to rebuild if hedo,andrea and jose are on the team because there contracts are just to big so, we need to continue to be a middle of the road team until hedo’s contract expired in 5 years and then kick him out lol
by raptors_run_the_show on May 9, 2010 10:09 PM EDT reply actions
STEVE NASH
Anyone watching the SA v PHX game?
Steve Nash looks like a pirate/boxer/someone who screwed with a hornets nest at the same time.
One eyed Captain Canada has been U-G-L-I-F-I-E-D….
I cringe everytime they show his face.
Been going nuts on Twitter over it
CLASSIC
Going to blog about the game in the morning…that’s a T-E-A-M.
What can you say about Nash, unreal performance, one of the great playoff performances of all time.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on May 9, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
"To Spend or Not"
It’s a great topic Franchise. And one where I still have the same belief – Spend.
.
I think MLSE will trend that way. Apparently they’re a Numbers bunch of guys. Which means they should realize that the Luxury tax is really just a cost to a greater thing – Return. Share value + play-off revenue would rise. And who wouldn’t want a chance to be the owner of the “better” team in Toronto … a crazy sport town that sets its’ scale at low, or non-existent. Of course, this is not forgetting that hockey will always rule the land, its’ own sport being the exception.
.
More ACC sell-outs; more exposure; more memorabilia … means a greater monetary return. Look at the Lakers. Paid a $7.2 million luxury tax penalty, and won. Along with contributing 13 play-off games to the cause. The Celtics – winners the year before – coughed up 8.3 million. Countered by 8 home play-off games.
.
[ “BC had lots of loot last off-season with which to use … …”]
Personally, I think BC will be in the same type of boat as last year. Without the Hedo Sign & Trade, BC`s options were slender to none. The difference this year, is that the prize is going the other way … if one is to consider Turk a prize. Actually, those trades – Hedo, and CB (should it happen) – will have one thing in common. Neither makes the Raptors better.
.
As for options? As I recall, a number of people figured the Orlando swap was a far-fetched idea, that had no benefit for the Magic, and hence was a stupid thought. …. In the end, Orlando didn`t feel screwed. And Miami has no reason to feel screwed. Portland certainly doesn`t feel screwed. That makes for potential trade partners – Bosh or others.
.
"Does It Even Matter? "
I think it does. With the Cap being what it is, it seems easier to manoeuvre when your spending is way up there. You can afford trades that might bring you one good player as long as you take a second. One who`s a dud, or an expensive contract finish – like JO.
.
While I`m not exactly confident about BC`s line-up of coaches, I`m very confident about his Cap guys. And I say go for it.
.
The problem is I am not convinced they can land anyone of significance to make it worth going into luxury territory. The last thing this team needs is another 5 year bad contract on a non-playoff team. Right now the Raptors are nowhere near a team worth going into luxury tax territory especially since Toronto fans continue to lineup to bask in mediocrity.
Do not spend:
I have noticed in a few places on the internet higlighting the general correlation between payroll and wins. This seems to raise the notion that spending money = more wins. This also fits in nicely with BC’s suggestion that MLSE should raise the payroll to the 70-80 million dollar range.
However:
- You cannot just “spend more money” as you please when near to or over the soft cap, that is not how the CBA works. If spending money is your goal, you can do three things:
You can sign an MLE player, you can extend your own player with a bigger contract, or you can trade for a player with a longer contract (typically for an expiring contract). None of these types of moves can build a title contender without a solid collection of talent already in place (at least a top 4 playoff seed).
- If your GM cannot spend money wisely, spending is futile. The past few versions of the Knicks are a prime example of this.
Allen Iverson was making 20 million last season, and is now worthless by NBA standards. Hedo Turkoglu was a bust the moment he put pen to paper. More important than having boatloads of money to cover up your mistakes, is having someone who can deftly avoid making these huge mistakes.
Besides, do we really want BC signing guys to big (also long) contracts? Should he be making decisions which will saddle his successor with an even more terribly overpaid roster?
Long story short: Anyone who suggests that spending more money will fix the problems residing within the ACC is delusional. The talent is simply not there to achieve anything but a middling record (Bosh or no Bosh).
Any preseason dreams of top 4 playoff seeds or 50 wins will be easily snuffed over a long season of suffering. Par for the course in Raptorville. I’d rather the teachers keep their money than sign another Hedo, quite frankly.
























