The "Best," "Worst-Case Scenario"
So the Raptors didn't land the first pick overall, or even a top three pick for that matter. But as Franchise discusses, what looked like a terrible outcome, might not be so bad after all.
No surprise, the Toronto Raptors ended up with the 13th pick in the upcoming draft.
However after seeing picks 12 through 7 go in order, things went pretty wacky didn't they?
Suddenly, the Washington Wizards, Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Nets were all sitting with shots at the top 3 spots, while teams like Sacramento, Golden State and Minnesota, were out of luck.
A crew of us from the HQ were taking in the draft lottery at a local sports bar and the immediate reaction to seeing these three teams in the mix for a top spot was one of despair. All of a sudden, three Eastern Conference teams had a chance at the likes of John Wall and Evan Turner, not to mention two of these clubs being in the Raptors' own division. Was this going to be a worst-case scenario for the Dinos?
Consider the possible outcomes...
-With John Wall on the Nets, this would open the door for a serious LeBron James bid.
-With Evan Turner, the Washington Wizards go from a mess to a suddenly intriguing club with a one-two-three punch of Arenas, Howard and Turner.
-And with either Cousins or Favors on the 76ers, Philly looks to take a big step forward, filling a hole at the 4 that Elton Brand could not previously fill.
Translation - bad news for a Raptors team that's attempting to get back into the playoff race next season, with or without Bosh.
However a funny thing happened.
From this worst-possible outcome, the best possible one emerged:
-New Jersey didn't get Wall or Turner, thereby likely thwarting any LeBron ideas.
-Turner heads to Philadelphia where his skill-set is greatly duplicated by Andre Iguodala, perhaps making Iggy available.
-And Wall lands in Washington, where the Wizards now must decide if they want to experiment with him AND Arenas in the back-court, or if Arenas is now going to be shown the door.
All in all, for a finale that saw three Eastern Conference teams in the top trifecta, including two direct divisional competitors, it could have been a lot worse.
So now what?
For the Raps, it's time to get to work regarding what to do with this pick.
I for one have no illusions that the pick will result in a franchise-altering prospect being selected, but there are some interesting options out there. Many folks are already tagging the Raptors with Texas guard Avery Bradley at 13, something Chad Ford has done in his latest mock draft on ESPN.com.
One might wonder why the Raps would look at selecting another point guard when they have two, however Bradley admittedly makes a ton of sense on various levels. To start with, he was one of the best perimeter defenders in college last season, and perimeter D is something the Dinos could obviously use a serious dose of. He's also hardly a true point guard, more cut from the Russell Westbrook cloth, a long and athletic scorer who is still learning the 1. This might mean a nice fit beside the "ball" monster Hedo, and is the exact type of player who thrives in today's NBA.
And finally...did anyone mention that he was actually a more heralded recruit in high school than John Wall? In a draft where there looks to be very little difference talent-wise between the 12th and 35th pick, Bradley has some of the highest upside in the draft.
However it's still so early to be pegging any one prospect.
I'm sure Bradley is amongst a pool of candidates the Raps are looking closely at with the 13th pick, but I wouldn't rule out the likes of Daniel Orton, Ekpe Udoh, Damion James, Paul George, and Patrick Patterson as of yet.
As well, it's no sure thing that Toronto keeps this pick.
Colangelo has a track record for moving draft choices and considering he seems intent on competing for a playoff spot again next year, he might very well be looking for help now, rather than a prospect for down the road.
My take?
For the first time in years, I'm admittedly not sure. Unlike the past drafts where I was in love with players like Terrence Williams, DeJuan Blair, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Rajon Rondo and Danny Granger, this year I've no such man-crush. My favourite player, and the prospect I'd been pining to see in a Raps uniform the past two seasons, Evan Turner, will be long gone by 13. And numerous other prospects who I think would be good fits in Toronto like Dominique Jones, Stanley Robinson, Quincy Pondexter and Devin Ebanks, all may fall into the second round. It's that jammed a draft.
I've got my top choices list, but I'll be waiting to make final judgements until I see some of them in person working out for the team, as well as the release of some metrics that have been pretty good predictors of NBA success.
Oh...and I'm sure we'll be going through A LOT of last season's NCAA game-tape.
The one point of warning that I'll end this on though is regarding the 13th pick itself.
Last year ESPN.com released their "D.R.A.F.T. Initiative" which examined the NBA Draft from various statistical angles. In their research, while they discovered that players drafted at the 13th spot on average produced more wins than expected for their draft position, a great deal of this higher-than-expected-ranking was thanks to Kobe Bryant. He was the 13th pick in the 1996 draft and his NBA career performance to date greatly skewed that figure. Without him, this was traditionally one of the worst spots to be drafting from.
And looking beyond Kobe at the last ten 13th picks in the NBA Draft, we get some idea as to why:
| Tyler Hansbrough |
| Brandon Rush |
| Julian Wright |
| Thabo Sefolasha |
| Sean May |
| Sebastian Telfair |
| Marcus Banks |
| Marcus Haislip |
| Richard Jefferson |
| Courtney Alexander |
As you can see, there's not a ton there outside of Richard Jefferson to work with.
That's not to say Toronto can't nab a great player, but statistically time and time again it's been shown that after about the 10th pick, it's a real crapshoot as to what you're getting.
This year is no different and in fact, I'd argue because of the depth and similarity in talent, it's even moreso the case. In fact, you're statistically better off to go fishing late in the first round or early in the second!
More importantly I think is now what the lottery means for various other teams, as Bryan Colangelo can now get to making calls about players availabilities and target teams who may now want to shuffle the deck.
There's no doubt it's going to be a very interesting next eight weeks and I believe last night's lottery was just the proverbial "tip of the ice-berg..."
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Comments
Let's not forget . . .
that Karl Malone was also the 13th pick of the draft. So, yeah . . . you have that to look forward to, potentially. Jazz look a little better with the 9th pick, I’m actually counting on DeMar to get much better in the next 2 years. I haven’t been following this draft class — but I do hope that the Raps can get a player who can bang.
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Really, I'm totally not lonely or anything . . .
by AllThatJazzBasketball on May 19, 2010 7:47 AM EDT reply actions
I like where the Jazz sit actually because each year, GM’s screw up the top few picks and someone drops. The 9th spot traditionally has been one of great value in fact.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on May 19, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
time will tell . . .
by my math, it’s a pick that can be very worth it, or a huge waste.
Paddy O’Bryant or Amare
DJ Augustin or Dale Ellis . . .
I can’t complain though, usually the Jazz pick in the low 20s so we’re stuck with the Kosta Koufoses of the world.
Follow me on Twitter: AllThatAmar
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Really, I'm totally not lonely or anything . . .
by AllThatJazzBasketball on May 19, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate to say this but BC needs to get something out of this draft (even if it’s trading it away for help) as this team needs help now. No pressure BC, no pressure.
Totally agree.
There’s a good possibility that the Raps get next to nothing for Bosh in a sign-and-trade so it puts even more emphasis on hitting at least a double in this draft.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on May 19, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
if you get next to nothing.....
why doing a S&T in the first place?
Simply put...
…because next to nothing is better than nothing at all.
Pretty frustrating because if “next to nothing” occurs, BC should be killed in the media…he had plenty of opportunities to move Bosh earlier to get something decent in return and was too proud to do it.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on May 19, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
well, I was one of those ones proposing to trade #4last summer
I do not remember legions of people agreeing with me. BC did what most fans wanted him to do deep inside, he tried to hold to his franchise best player and took a risk. A risk that many people here and in the canadian press agreed with. It would be unfair in my opinion to throw now HIM under the bus wen almos everybody agreed on that strategy.
There are three things we will never know with any certainty.
1) How much of a chance did BC forsee the Raptors having of keeping Bosh.
2) How good (or bad) were the offers last summer
3) How good (or bad) were the offers during the lead up to the trade deadline.
If BC saw the potential for fifty wins, maybe that was the magic number (and linked to second round playoff success) that he thought would keep Bosh in town.
To add to my last point, keeping Bosh was in a way the safest option. It gives you the chance to keep him, plus the proceeds from a sign and trade.
Trading Bosh pre-emptively at the deadline guarantees that will not come back, and the return MAY have been better. Since most of the teams that were interested in him were close to the luxury tax, we wouldn’t taken back lots of expiring deals. Even though they expire in the offseason, you end up paying the equivalent of Bosh’s salary, for players that match only a portion of his contribution. Considering how many new faces we had, I could see the players on expiring deals really messing up the team’s chemistry while playing for a contract. I’m sure this was a consideration for BC.
Personally, I would’ve said bring the chaos on…provided that the dysfunction lasted all season and was reflected in a MUCH more elevated draft posiiton. Then again, a GM thinking like that in the offseason doesn’t bother to sign Hedo. So that’s a different tangent altogether, and was never an option once Hedo signed on the dotted line.
jose for iggy
Agree with this post this is what I was thinking when philly got the # 2 this totally makes iggy avaible and I wouldn’t be surprise if bc doesn’t make a call to dangle what philly needs a point jose for iggy. I mean if they draft turner iggy has to be gone.they been trying to trade him almost all year so here’s the chance.than with our pick we can draft the point guard.I totally can see this happening
by sherwin316 on May 19, 2010 9:03 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Turk for Arenas
Would you do Turk for Arenas?
More would have to be included…I haven’t put it through trade machine but I think Arenas is in the 15M range (probably include Marcus Banks expiring contract). I know Arenas has his problems, but you have to think he comes back motivated next season. It is a huge risk…because if he comes back a flop there is 70M still owed to him.
by WinnipegRaptorFan on May 19, 2010 10:03 AM EDT reply actions
HA!
In all seriousness though, I’d do it in a flash. Think Arenas still has some upside and something to prove, whereas there’s not much there for Hedo. And would an Arenas package make Bosh think twice about leaving? Similar to Hollinger saying that Bosh is the best fit for LeBron, I think Bosh and a ball-dominating Arenas would work as well.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on May 19, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Arenas in Toronto
Love the Gun Registry Comment BC.
Franchise: The more and more I’ve thought about this, this morning, the more I like this deal. Arenas can “hide out” in Toronto, if Bosh doesn’t come back he would be the focus of the offence. Played with Trade Machine. Ideally Washington goes for Turk, Banks and Evans for Arenas. This would actually free up an additional 3M this year and pretty much we get rid of all of our problems in one trade. Wishful thinking on my part I know.
In fact Turk and Banks for Arenas works too but we are taking on an additional 2.5M in salary next year and about 7.5 M more each over the next three after that. Turk, Banks our First Rounder for Arenas and their Second Rounder works. If we want to keep our 13th pick we may need to include Weems or Derozan. It opens up a hole at the 3 spot, but maybe we can move Calderon+Derozan for it.
by WinnipegRaptorFan on May 19, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Wishful thinking but...
…we’ve all seen stranger things happen in the league, and BC has taken plenty of flyers on guys like this who seem to be past their peaks. Sometimes it works (Diaw, Nash) – sometimes it flops (Hedo, J.O.)
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on May 19, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=23jot6l
i would like this trade
by raptors_run_the_show on May 19, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I think BC has run out of flyers to take, at least here in Toronto. If Bosh leaves, the era of the quick fix follows him out the door. The tail end of the Carter era was somewhat similar, that magic summer when everyone and their grandmother got an extension from Glen Grunwald. However, consider how he must have suffered as Isaih’s righ hand during the expansion years. I can’t fault him or ownership for the attempt to keep good times rolling.
And I hope Bargnani takes a long, hard look at the mirror, and dedicates himself to improving both as an all-around basketball player and a teammate . With Bosh gone, there is no nothing separating the bright media lights from the Franchises biggest investment. People have come to terms with what Jose can and can not do. Hedo’s just trying to go with the flow. Jarrett can only do so much. And DeRozan is years away from establishing his own game, never mind influencing others in the locker room.
Arenas' defence
Arenas is certainly the sort of turnstile defender that BC has shown a lot of affection for lately. That last Knicks-Raps would be the template for next season if this scenario went down.
You can't be serious
Arenas has what is universally recognized as the worst contract in the NBA. He has not been the same player since his knee injury…a chucker shooting a poor percentage and doing his own Jose turnstile imitation on defence. Oh yeah, and he is a complete head case. What’s not to like. I know everyone has soured on Hedo but Gilbert Arenas…no thank you.
Agreed
I agree that Arenas has the worst contract in the NBA but I think this is a roll the dice go for broke deal. If Arenas comes back rejuvenated the Raps probably are a playoff team, if he comes back and sucks, well we go into a three year rebuild, with hopefully good draft picks.
I agree Arenas defense is not good. But still an upgrade over Hedo. Although a folding chair would accomplish that too.
I think Mcgee would be a nice additional pick up…but I can’t see Washington including Nick young too. And Nick Young is Derozan is Weems.
I hope BC is making a call to Washington and Philli
by WinnipegRaptorFan on May 19, 2010 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Comparison should be on late lottery / mid-first-round picks in general
I’m not sure that you need to focus on exactly the 13th pick — it is pure coincidence if a player like Kobe is taken at 12 vs. 13 vs. 14 in a particular draft (Nash was #15 in that same 1996 draft by the way, and superstar Vitaly Potapenko was #12).
We should be looking at situations with experienced NCAA/Euro players that might be overlooked/underrated:
1999: Artest at #16, Posey at #18
2000: one of the worst drafts ever (KMART #1) — not even worth examining
2001: RJ at #13, Joe Johnson at #10
2002: Caron Butler at #10
2003: Pietrus at #11, David West at #18
2004: Iguodola at #9
2005: Granger at #17
2006: Rondo at #21
2007: Thaddeus Young at #12, Rudy Fernandez at #24
2008/2009: too early to tell who the solid players will be, but Jrue Holiday at #17 looks like a steal
Glad you brought this up
I think if Toronto keeps the pick, then at 13 you need to take one of two approaches:
1) Draft the player with the most upside. This is a swing for the fences move admittedly, but considering the crapshoot that the draft typically is, at this spot if you’re not in love with any one prospect, you take whoever you feel could bring the most value down the road. Problem is, if BC is serious about competing right away, he probably doesn’t go this route. Examples in the past of this are the Rondos and Zach Randolphs.
2) Draft the player who has proven to be the most NBA ready. This is where you get the Grangers, David Wests, Carlos Boozers and Tayshaun Princes of the draft. These types get undervalued because they don’t have the “upside” of their draft counterparts, and teams typically ignore stand-out college careers.
That being said, there are plenty of busts in both pools as well so no sure thing.
Going to have a full blog post on this topic in the near future…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on May 19, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
if bosh leaves
than this team may as well go and rebuild. i know you all hate that word but what do you really expect. our best player leaves, and we get practically draft picks and decent players with “potential” in the best case scenario.
im actually intrigued by the possibility of getting avery bradley. i think were stuck with hedo so its best to get an athltic combo guard to compliment hedo’s game, which is point forward.this way we have jack and bradley who become our future point guards. i see bradley similar to the monta/westbrook type which is a great thing.
and i really hope raps dont waste this pick on a centre. who are available orton and whiteside? ehh orton will be a bust. hasnt played much mins. best case scenario he plays like kendrik perkins, which is alright and unlikely since he;s not playing on a team full of all-stars and will always be in foul trouble. whiteside has “potential,” but i feel its a huge risk, his blocks per game are great, but thats how we all felt about thabeet last year, and last ive heard of him was in that trade rumor that invovled oj mayo for monta ellis.
please do not draft a big because on what we need. draft best player available, and at 13, im thinking bradley, patterson, anderson, damion jones, paul george.
if need center, convince bosh to go to NJ and trade for brook lopez. theyre gonna take either cousins or favors and theyd play great with bosh. and if they dont, they still need some way to attract lebron and bosh would be icing on the cake for them.
Like your line of thinking
The article will come later this summer but I feel a rebuild really is the best thing for this team…I’ve avocated what I’ve called the “Phoenix Suns Route” recently, but that’s more because BC seems ardent on his stance that “this team will be fine next year.”
And as for prospects, agree on the bigs…Whiteside has “AVOID AT ALL COSTS” written all over him and who knows how long you’ll need to wait on guys like Orton.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on May 19, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Whiteside = POB part 2
Unless the scouting reports on Whiteside are way off it sounds like he is the second coming of Patrick O’Bryant → All the tools, no toolbox. If that is the case then I’d stay away from him. Heck, why not just re-sign the original POB.
re: rebuild
I think a part of the problem people might have with a rebuild is that with our contracts, we can’t jump in with both feet. Indiana hasn’t been to the playoffs in a few years, and yet, they also haven’t had a legit chance at the top six picks either. It was an awful state of limbo, since you knew they weren’t going to try and build around guys like Troy Murphy and Dunleavy. And yet these guys weren’t scrubs, and were going to perform well enough to ensure the team never reached the depths of teams that are in all-out tank mode.
If you’re doomed to draft late, late lottery anyway, I can see why people might rather we take a small step up, and get ourselves into playoff contention.
with he team we have (without bosh) do you think well be any good?
the only bad contract we have is hedo. bargs and calderon still interest other teams so they are tradeable, bargs is also still young and calderon will be a boost at the pg position for another team. hedo is the only concern. i think with this team right now, will not make the playoffs at all.
i think we’re more of a philadelphia than an indiana. philly has talent but cannot work well together. toronto has some talent as well but its our defense that kills us, and like they say defense wins games. and philly now has 2nd pick. and with the way the east has become better, with the first 3 draft picks in the east, we’ll be near the bottom of the east standings. which only means higher draft pick.
our team is based around bosh, every ball possession is run through bosh, and now that bosh is likely leaving, that means our team will have to find that new go to guy, bargs? ya, i dont think so. our team will definitely be at the bottom of the standings.
Howard probably not returning to Wizards
He’s got a team option on his massive contract, so it’s highly, highly unlikely Washington exercises his option. He could still re-sign, but he’d be an unrestricted free agent.
And even with Howard, I don’t see Washington doing anything next year.
Tim W.
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