3 In the Key - Toronto Raptors Game Day Preview vs. 76ers
by RaptorsHQ - Howland on Apr 3, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
in 3 in the Key
Email
PrintIt's a rather big day in basketball.
Today the Final Four begins but before the tip-off between Butler and Michigan State the Raptors take on the Philadelphia 76ers.
I think the Raptors are going to make the playoffs.
They are two games up on the Chicago Bulls and given the schedule ahead, combined with this team's play as of late, should result in an appearance in the NBA 2010 Playoffs. That's the good news.
The bad news? If the Raptors do end up in 8th they will be facing the Cleveland Cavaliers.
If you use the ESPN Playoff Simulation Machine the Raptors have a 4% chance of beating the Cavs in the first round. If you are a person that likes to bet on the under dog, a Cavs-Raptors match-up might be just what you are looking for.
Think the Raps have more than a 4% chance of beating the Cavs? Well before you place a wager consider the fact that if the Raptors do make the playoffs they will be the ONLY team to do so with a negative points differential between points for and points against. They will also be the only team in the Eastern Conference playoffs to give up more than 97.5 points per game. The Raps give up 105.3 points per game.
4%? From where I am sitting those odds seem about right.
The scary part is the Raptors, as an organization, will be foregoing a mid first round pick for that 4%. For a team that in my eyes needs some major reconstruction, with or without Chris Bosh, those are just bad odds all around.
With this in mind I am going to have a tough time cheering for the Raptors over the course of the final couple of weeks. For the long term health of this team I hope they don't make the playoffs. Besides, watching Lebron James & Co. beat-up on the Raps like a pinada is just not that appealing of a thought.
At least if Bosh does move on to greener pastures (and in my mind he would be crazy not to) the more assets and picks this team has the better. Hell, maybe Colangelo could package that pick with Hedo...one can dream right?
Actually if you look at the Raptors situation and that of the 76ers there are some definite similarities. Both teams are saddled with some brutal contracts (Brand/Hedo, Dalembert/Bargnani), have a player getting paid superstar money for being a first rate complimentary piece on a real contender (Bosh/Iggy), and a fan base calling for a new head coach.
Actually if you look at the Raptors situation and the 76ers situation whose long term future looks brighter? Looks like a toss-up to me.
But back to the short term. Here are this afternoon's three keys.
1. Stop Penetration: If you remember the last time these two met the 76ers wingmen absolutely took it to the Raps. Thaddeus Young and Jrue Holiday both had fantastic games and the Raps defense was more or less non-existent. Today the Raps have to be sure they protect the paint and force the 76ers to settle for jumpers. Easier said that done that's for sure. If I am Jay Triano I tell Marcus Banks to be ready for a little action because Jose Calderon simply doesn't have the quicks to stop Jrue Holiday or a limited (by injury) Lou Williams from taking it to the rim time after time after time.....
2. Keep up the strong effort: The Raps, despite the mediocre record to show for it, have played good basketball as of late. This season, just when you think the Raps have turned a corner they have laid a stinker. There is little margin for error this time of year and let down games have to be a thing of the past. Generally the Raps have had good success in the matinee match-ups so hopefully this trend will continue.
3. A typical CB4 Performance: The last time these teams met it marked the return of CB4. Up until last game you had to wonder whether he came back to early as his performances were lacking. A Raptors win will be heavily dependent on what sort of production they get from their franchise guy. Another performance like that against the Clippers and the Dino's should have win 38.
30 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Scary Thought
A number of people (including myself) have talked about the advantage of missing the playoffs is that we get to keep our pick. It should be clarified that we will lose a first rounder at some point and over time (I can’t remember the specifics), it stops being lottery protected. How’s this for a doomsday scenerio. We miss the playoffs and lose Bosh to free agency without getting anything significant in return. We end up wallowing out of the playoffs for several years until the lottery protection fades away and we end up losing a high draft pick. Ouch!
Super Ouch
…and add on that Bosh goes to Miami thanks to the cap space JO created…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 3, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Playoffs baby :p
I’ll prefer the raps making the playoffs even though we will likely be crushed by the cavs. The draft is promising so there’s a chance we can still get a good player in the late first round or even 2nd round. Being the playoffs gives tremendous experience to our young raps. Plus it builds attitude & comfort level to play in that kind of environment. Imagine if next year will have a better chance & our guys already have some playoff experience. & it also gives you a better goal going forward, if we miss the playoffs the immediate goal & mindset will be to make the playoffs even just in the 1stround. but if we make it now our goal will be to be better next year 2nd round or more. Finally in the world of fantasy anything can happen _ lebron injury in 1st round, KG out in 2nd round, Howard out in conference finals & hola where in the finals hahah. Have a great day veryone
If the Raps make the playoffs, there is no first round pick
it goes to the Heat, from last year’s JO & Moon for Marion & Banks trade.
I’m not 100% sure if the Raptors have their 2nd round pick this year.
Raps have their second round pick, but I’d prefer they had their first as well. I either want to see this team go on a major run and get up to 6th or 7th (not impossible), or bow out completely so they can retain their pick.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 3, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
If the Raps miss the playoffs we lose this year's 2nd rounder and our next non-lottery pick
and if we lose bosh and dont make the playoffs for 5 years (fairly possible) they get an unprotected pick in 2015. PLEASE put out a PSA about this so that everyone is aware of the situation so I dont have to keep correcting everyone who’s dilusional in thinking missing the playoffs is somehow going to help us…..
Second round pick?
Who do we owe this to?
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 3, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
And...
…why then is it NOT beneficial for the team to miss the playoffs this year? Better draft crop than probably the next few due to CBA issues…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 3, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Nope...
It’s Miami’s option to take the pick. They don’t have to take the first (non lottery) one that comes up.
Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com Twitter @RapHQVicious
by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Apr 3, 2010 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
When BC went, hat in hand, to restart the Marion trade negotiations, the devil would seem to have been in the details as well.
I haven’t looked at the exact trade details recently, but I’m suspicous of whether Miami truly has the choice of picks you speak of. I recall that IF the 2010 lottery protected pick isn’t conveyed this year, then we give up a 2010 second round pick. They then receive our first non-lottery pick until…2015?, when they get an unprotected first rounder if we haven’t conveyed a pick by then.
If Miami can choose the year, wouldn’t it be a no-brainer to not take our pick this year. By not taking the 2010 pick, you get a free 2010 second rounder for delaying your selection. Secondly, they avoid having a first round pick’s cap hold applied to their cap number as they entering the 2010 free agency period.
Out of curiosity Howland
what would be a fair contract for Andrea, if any? (mind you Lamarcus O makes 15M P. Y.)
If I could weigh in, I would say a fair contract for Andrea would’ve been one that was determined by the market this summer and NOT in a preemptive strike by Colangelo.
Sure, there are a lot of overpaid big men in the NBA right now. We’re working our way through an era of historically bad contracts (Dalembert, JO, etc). But the difference is, not a lot of those bad contracts run through 2014 — which is the other killer.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Apr 3, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Contracts
Any huge long term contract is a huge risk. Most guys earning max dollars were once arguably worth it.
Bargnani at his age and at that price is far from a terrible signing. It could end up looking very good on the Raptors.
Bosh at 17+ million per for 5-6 years could end up biting somebody in the ass.
by JumpShootersRUS on Apr 3, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
It’s more the timing than anything. Andrea’s not the most egregious over-paid big man example in the league.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 3, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Playoffs
Chicago looks to have the toughest schedule remaining. Miami’s is a joke. The Raps, Bobcats and Bucks all have a few tough matchups coming up. I think Atlanta will push through the end of the year harder than Boston.
I would bet on the playoff matchups looking like this:
Cavs-Raps
Orlando-Charlotte
Atlanta-Milwakee
Boston-Miami
I could definitely see Bosh signing in Miami, but he would have to be willing to leave a considerable amount of money on the table. It seems highly unlikely that the Heat would be able to offer something up that would entice the Raps into dealing Bosh to a division rival.
If it is money that Bosh wants, he will most likely end up in a sign-and-trade to the West coast. If he wants to win Chicago and Miami both seem like smart places for him to sign.
by JumpShootersRUS on Apr 3, 2010 10:56 AM EDT reply actions
Dare to dream...
Love to see these matchups:
Cleveland-Charlotte
Orlando-Miami
Boston-Toronto
Atlanta-Milwaukee
I realize though that Miami needs to cool off and Toronto has to keep wining for this to come close to happening…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 3, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
The Raps may not have a choice...
if Bosh wants Miami the have the cap space and BC would be forced to sign and trade to at least get a second round pick.
Miami is a conference rival not division.
Dave "Howland" Randell
Co-Creator of RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Howland on Apr 3, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Always have a choice
The Raps better not help Bosh go to another team, especially one in the East, unless they are getting something good in return. There is no need to deal him for anything that is not a real asset.
I would rather let Bosh walk then deal him for next to nothing so that he can have his cake and eat it too.
by JumpShootersRUS on Apr 3, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
is his contract that bad?
10 Mil for Andrea, who is younger and has more upside than dalembert or JO, honestly doesn’t seem too bad in the grand scale of contracts that are there for that position. Considering what that Andrea, though has spurts where he disappears, his overall season stats have shown there is growth happening, maybe not as fast as everyone would like, (his ft and fg% have gone down mind you… but I don’t think it’s quite the albatross that it feels like you guys are defining it as) His ppg, bpg and rpg have all increased too.
Year Team G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG
06-07 TOR 65 2 25.1 0.427 0.373 0.824 0.8 3.1 3.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.65 2.77 11.6
07-08 TOR 78 53 23.9 0.386 0.345 0.840 0.6 3.1 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.5 1.13 2.71 10.2
08-09 TOR 78 59 31.4 0.450 0.409 0.831 0.9 4.4 5.3 1.2 0.4 1.2 1.73 3.10 15.4
09-10 TOR 72 72 34.7 0.474 0.374 0.764 1.3 4.9 6.2 1.1 0.3 1.4 1.47 2.74 16.9
I agree his contract is not as bad as some other people believe. I have no problems with his point production; however, he needs to grab more rebounds. Defensive rebounding is the main weakness of Andrea’s game that he needs to work on. I think the offensive rebounding is partly the coach responsibility to incorporate better spacing on the floor. Andrea should operate closer to the basket, which may allow for second chance opportunities.
09-10 TOR 72 72 34.7 0.474 0.374 0.764 1.3 4.9 6.2 1.1 0.3 1.4 1.47 2.74 16.9
That bolded number is the one that bugs me. On another team that needed his O and not his rebounding, then maybe the contract looks better. But I just don’t get paying that much when you already have SO MANY DOLLARS locked into Bosh and Calderon, neither of whom are exactly all-world defensively.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 3, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Against the odds
At this point, it is risky to make the playoffs because they would lose a draft pick. However, making the playoffs does help to entice free-agents to come to Toronto. The odds of winning a series against Cleveland is pretty low, but as long as they compete I think they will garner national interest.
Outside of the max deal in Toronto, Raptors management does not have much else to offer Bosh. On the other hand, Miami has money and a chance at a title.
When I reflect on the Bosh’s season thus far, I think that he deserves max money. He is fourth on player productivity, a list that includes: LeBron, Howard, and Paul. My only hope is that he doesn’t fall in step with other (Raptor) players who get financially compensated and relax.
They key for Bosh is to be patient with the development of Sonny and DeMar because I predict that they will be the main pieces to the Raptors future.
TORONTO RAPTORS DRAFT PICK STATUS
Scowered the net and here’s what I could find:
Miami HEAT: Receives Toronto’s 2010 first-round pick (top-14 protected through 2014) from Shawn Marion trade on 2/13/09.
Toronto Raptors: Receives L.A. Clippers future second-round pick via the Hassan Adams trade on 1/7/09.
Detroit Pistons: Receives Toronto’s 2011 second-round pick via the Carlos Delfino trade on 6/15/07.
Toronto Raptors: Receives L.A. Clippers 2015 second-round pick (51-55 only) via the Hassan Adams trade on 1/7/09.
Memphis Grizzlies: Receives Toronto’s 2016 second-round pick via the Shawn Marion trade on 7/9/09.
So…my take is if Toronto:
A) Makes the playoffs: Club loses its first-round pick to the Heat, but has the option of grabbing the Clippers second round pick, and still has its own.
B) Misses the playoffs: They retain their first-round pick, and still get their second-rounder plus the chance to grab the Clips’.
It’s the FOLLOWING season that TO loses its second-rounder to Detroit thanks to the Delfino trade.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
And...
…how funny are the 2015 and 2016 options!
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 3, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
So it’s “Tank for the chance to grab the next Joey Graham” time? Seriously, I’m not that excited about drafting several spots lower than the pick that ended up with Derozan last year. Perhaps this young team would be better served by a playoff berth and something to remember for next year.
And if Bosh doesn’t go, then this might be a good year not to have a first round pick, so that they can save their money for re-signing Johnson and a MLE as well.
I've been looking at the sky
Hmmm..match ups?
What evidence has been presented so far in the games the teams have played against each other that suggest the Raptors will be blown out by the Cavs. I would argue that the match up Toronto presents Cleveland will keep several games close. Outside of LeBron James the talent doesn’t exceed the Raptors. The thing you see in Cleveland is a team where the players are used in a way that suits their skills and maximizes their impact, playing offensive and defensive SYSTEMS THAT WORK IN AN NBA ENVIRONMENT. If the Raptors were similarly coached we wouldn’t be worrying about just making the playoffs and the general optimism would be much higher. The only overhaul this team needs is behind the bench, but that can happen 2 ways..Triano is either let go, or he undergoes a Calderonic improvement in one summer and becomes a good coach,
Anyway, I liken the Raptors vs. The Cavs to the Mavericks vs. Warriors in the 2007 playoffs, or even the Celtics Hawks match up of 2008. Not saying the outcome will be the same, but expect the games will be competitive.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Kevin Love would like the NBA to take the MLB’s approach on All-Star games
- Kobe Bryant fires a few hilarious salvos at Jeremy Lin
- Brandon Jennings states the obvious regarding his 2014 free agency, everyone goes nuts
- The Facebook campaign to hire Will Ferrell for All-Star Game player intros is underway
- Video: Meet the infamous bearded guy that goes nuts by the 76ers’ bench
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
