The Importance of a Lottery Pick
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2010 10:02 AM EDT
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With the NBA Draft lottery about a month away, Franchise takes a quick look at why this pick could be a huge key for the Toronto Raptors next season...
As of last night, three of the East's lower seeds have been unceremoniously booted from the NBA playoffs.
While the Bulls gave the Cavs the most resistance of the group, I found myself picturing the Toronto Raptors in any of those three situations, and coming up with the same results.
Or worse.
This is why I unfortunately fell on the "cheering for your team to miss the playoffs" side of the fence as the season began to wrap up. With very little financial flexibility this off-season, perhaps a huge hole to fill should Chris Bosh depart, a desperate need for talent, and an inevitable pounding at the hands of the likes of the Cavs, Magic or Celtics, long-term, I didn't see any other choice but to hope Toronto missed the dance.
And right now, that option is looking better and better.
An incredible 77 underclassmen have declared for the upcoming draft, and by May 8th, the final date for said underclassmen to withdraw their names, we'll get a pretty good picture of how many of these 77 will remain in the mix for Toronto come June.
Right now, it seems like most of these players will stay, meaning this draft could be one of the most loaded from top to bottom in years. Part of this mass exodus seems to be because of the concern surrounding the upcoming CBA negotiations and many agents are likely advising their players to "get in while they can."
This probably explains the decisions of folks like Lance Stephenson and Tiny Gallon, talented young prospects who right now look to be on the bubble to be drafted, but who are willing to roll the dice now instead of betting against a potential work stoppage down the line.
Does this mean that the Raptors will get a stud wherever they pick?
Not necessarily, however it does mean that not only is there some solid options early on, but because of the draft's depth, it might not be a bad idea for Colangelo and co. to try and grab a late first round or second round pick in addition to their current lottery selection. Teams like Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, OK City, Minnesota and Washington all have three or more selections and with several of these clubs looking to be cost concious next season, there may be picks to be had.
But for the Raps, it's the lottery pick obviously that's of paramount importance.
Perhaps whoever is drafted at that spot (assuming Toronto doesn't jump into one of the top 3 positions post-lottery) isn't a franchise changer, but in so deep a draft, I'm quite confident the Raptors will be able to grab a nice piece to next year's puzzle.
As of now, without getting into rankings, some of our favourite options from Toronto's draft range include:
-Paul George - SF - Fresno St.
-Ekpe Udoh - PF - Baylor
-Devin Ebanks - SF - West Virginia
-Daniel Orton - PF/C - Kentucky
-Jordan Crawford - SG - Xavier
-Stanley Robinson - PF - UCONN
-Quincey Pondexter - SF - Washington
-Patrick Patterson - PF - Kentucky
-Dominique Jones - G - South Florida
-Xavier Henry - SG - Kansas
We've already got our feelers out on these prospects and over the next few weeks you'll hear from media, scouts and others who regularly follow these players, in order to give you the most comprehensive look possible at draft options for the Raptors.
However outside of a shot at new, cheap talent, there's another very important piece to the "having a lottery pick" puzzle.
Right now, various teams like Charlotte, New York, Cleveland, the LA Lakers, Phoenix and Dallas don't own first-round picks so perhaps the true advantage is that a lottery pick is simply an additional asset that Toronto wouldn't have had had they made the playoffs. Now, should the Dinos look to get creative with their logjam of contracts, perhaps a lottery-pick helps grease the skids.
Put it this way.
A lottery pick = facilitation.
In a year where many clubs will again likely be looking to make major changes to their rosters, a lottery pick could go a long way towards making the contract of say a Jose Calderon, all the more palatable for a potential trade partner.
Would I prefer if the Raptors kept the pick?
Slightly...but it all depends on what trade options might present themself as unlike past seasons, I'm not married to anyone in this draft...
...well...
...outside of Evan Turner of course.
And should Toronto land a top 2 spot in the draft and therefore an opportunity to grab the Ohio State swingman, suddenly this off-season looks pretty good doesn't it, Bosh or no Bosh!
And that's my final point about this lottery pick.
By simply having their logo on a combination of ping pong balls next month, Toronto has a shot at perhaps a franchise-altering player, something they wouldn't have had at all after a first-round exodus.
So what if it's less than a one percent chance...
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The trade flexibility is the big issue ...
I love that the Lottery Pick will give that option if, and when, the Raps decide to try to unload some of the dead weight contracts.
And I like Udoh and Patterson for sure as picks, particulary Patterson. Played three years in a pro style system and is a legit big with a post game compliment an outside one. I’d go with Crawford, Robinson and maybe Jones as back up options. I’d like to see Jerome Jordan as a second round pick.
Ray Bala
CANadian BasketBALL Report
on www.raptorhq.com
I don’t know that dealing one of our many bad contracts is worth trading the pick. Usually you deal the pick to maximize cap room (to secure an allstar+), not to gain a marginal amount and MLE level player.
Even if we did have enough to sign one big name, we are no better of a squad than we have been this current season with Bosh. Barring a trade of Jose, our 1/3/5 have basically defined our salary structure for the next few years. Buying our way out of trouble with draft picks is a bad idea.
I agree
That’s what got the Raps into some of this trouble to begin with. But perhaps BC can find another gem of a move that works.
And really, it’s not so much an advocation of moving the pick as it is nice to have that option as an additional asset that wasn’t present 3 weeks ago.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
BC made a trade a few years ago (I think) which netted 3 million to buy a pick and he never used it. If he could buy a late 1st rounder then trading our own to help move a contract or two would definitely be good. I am willing to suck for a year or two if it meant we could finally build a solid foundation going forward. What I do not want to see (but probably will) is a continuation of the selling this team as a contender when there is no way in hell it will ever be.
I didn’t get to ask BC about that $3 M during the press conference but it was on my “to ask” list. I’d love to know just what happened to it as well as this might indeed be the year to buy back in.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't Forget About
Eric Bledsoe….
Also, if the Raps do manage to get a second round pick try Kenneth Faried – the best rebounder in college hoops last season. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kenneth-Faried-5325/
Much like Millsap and Blair before him, he is undersized.
Dave "Howland" Randell
Co-Creator of RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Howland on Apr 28, 2010 10:56 AM EDT reply actions
Bledsoe is interesting and I’ve asked for scouts take on him as a prospect and fit for the Raps. The issue is he plays the same spot as Toronto’s two best young guys in Weems and DeRozan…although I’d say he’d be an upgrade over both, particularly in the scoring department.
Like Orton, a major project, it may come down to BC trying to fill holes if he feels this team is still competitive enough in the East, or going for the best player available and a bit of a rebuild.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The draft and draft coverage
If the raptors can somehow creep up to the 7th or 8th pick, I would think Cole Aldrich could possibly be a good choice. He is strong player who can play in the paint and hit free throws. However, he needs to develop an NBA physique. He has the frame but not the muscle (yet). If he can, he may be a good NBA player.
As exciting as the draft is, I find draft coverage annoying-especially the analogies of prospects with current NBA superstars. It is lazy analysis that neglects how hard it is to survive the NBA. Remember the Dan Dickau comparison’s to Steve Nash? Or scouts glowing over ‘Smush’ Parker. Both are out of the NBA and Dickau played (sat on the bench) for eight teams in five years. Steve Nash? I don’t think so…
I could be wrong....
but my understanding is the Raps either end up with a top three pick or end up where they are slotted now.
Dave "Howland" Randell
Co-Creator of RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Howland on Apr 28, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Same. I’m under the impression that the top 3 are up for grabs, and then the remaining teams slot in underneath that at the pre-determined draft order.
Maybe he means by trade?
Yep - Top 3 Only..
…unless they somehow trade up.
That being said, love to see Cole on this team. It would give the Raps a Joel Przybilla type to pair with Bargs which is never a bad thing.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point ...
I’m not a huge fan of the NBA player comparison myself but unfortunately that’s what most people, meaning the casual fans, are able to understand.
As for Aldrich, I like his potential also but he seems a little light for an NBA big, particularly for someone who will likely live inside. He’s a potential early 2nd round pick I think and if so, he would be a great pick up for the Raps at that spot.
Ray Bala
CANadian BasketBALL Report
on www.raptorhq.com
Though more than half of first rounders (and many top 10 picks) will wash out of the league, there will always be a premium on potential in the NBA. You could always trade your draft pick for a veteran who is “better” than the majority of options available at the pick, but will never be a path to the NBA championship. Thus, the focus on risky “potential”.
The draft coverage is generally focused on the expectation that these players come close to fulfilling their potential, because the NBA draft is the beginning of the road that ends at the NBA Finals. That is why the draft is given such a spotlight and the prospects are worth fawning over.
If a young Steve Nash was entering the draft, would you be upset if his comparable was Steve Nash instead of a more modest comparison like Jose Calderon?
Why not just take the comparables for the player’s style of play rather than ability? Obviously, noone can know with certainty whether player X will become an all-star or benchwarmer – whether Greg Oden will become Bill Russell or Theo Ratliff – but the difference in overall skill is what separates them moreso than style of play.
Even though it’s a hype job at the draft, I don’t find it objectionable that they project the best prospects onto the best players in the world. The top NBAers generally have more defined styles of play than most, have proven their styles to be successful in the league, and are the most widely recognized by fans. And of course, the top prospects have the best chance of actually becoming that level of player.
Would you rather their analysis of pick #23 to be this?
“Don’t even bother packing your bags junior, you won’t last 3 years in the league or get off the bench.”
actually Howland
you were essentially right and my scenario was improbable.
the raptors are the 13th seed; therefore, they can either get one of the top three picks (not likely) or the 13th or 14th pick (very likely). The raps lost a coin toss with Memphis (they had the same record this year), which means the Grizz get the 12 pick.
Bala- isn’t aldrich a projected lottery?
Aldrich is a projected Lottery Pick ...
… depending on who you read but I’m thinking, hoping really, that he falls down to the bottom of the first round. The Draft combines are coming up and depending on his showing at this and the various other Draft related events, he may take a blow to his stock. I’m not really a big fan of the Kansas big man in the NBA personally, but that’s just me. With the many other options available, he may get bumped (read you may see Whiteside picked before Aldrich for instance).
Ray Bala
CANadian BasketBALL Report
on www.raptorhq.com
This from David Thorpe's chat today
Tom (Chicago)
How can an impending max FA watch the Chicago Bulls and not want to play with this young core? DRose is a superstar in the making…think Bosh was watching?
David Thorpe (12:24 PM)
He had to be. Here’s the problem, Bosh must want to have Noah next to him. It’s every scoring big’s dream to play with a talent like Noah. But how can the Raps do a sign and trade without getting Noah?
-
If someone as well respected and “in” on NBA knowledge thinks that we have the ability to get someone like Noah in a S&T, I’m willing to cross my fingers and hope.
(Hedo + Bosh) for (Deng + Hinrich + picks)
I’m not a big fan of this — mainly because Deng seems like a very average player with a $9M/year contract — but salaries could line up here (Chicago also has a few trade exceptions that could be used).
We get rid of the Ottoman, and get Hinrich to play with Jack — which opens up Jose trade scenarios.
Trade Jose to a team like Sacramento that needs a starting PG, and maybe get a young Center like Jason Thompson to play beside Bargnani (you’d need to take either Beno Udrih or Francisco Garcia to make the trade work).
Hinrich / Jack / Banks
Weems / Derozan / Marco
Deng / Garcia
Bargnani / Reggie
Thompson / Amir (hopefully)
It is also highly improbable. Chicago can sign Bosh outright so all the talk of sign-n-trades are a stretch if Toronto tries to get cute. We might be able to get Hinrich or Deng or Noah or something along those lines but only if Chicago is looking to move them (so Hinrich or Deng are more likely then Noah). As for Sacramento, my understanding is that Udrih has finally started to show signs of being the starting PG they needed. He is a decent fit to play next to Evans so I am not sure that Sac will make a trade for a PG now. Toronto had their chance to push to get Kevin Martin from Sac early in the season but couldn’t get it to work.
I’m not sure why Thorpe thinks Toronto HAS to take Noah back.
The reality is that if Chris wants to go to Chicago, the Bulls can simply say “fine, we’ll give you a second-round draft pick.”
Unless a number of teams indicate to BC that they want Bosh (say Heat, Knicks, Bulls and Clips), and Bosh has no preferred destination thus creating a bit of a bidding war, I think getting someone of Noah’s value back is a pipe dream.
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don’t have any faith in Colangelo right now. I get the terrible feeling he’ll draft Donatas M. just because he’s a talented shooting C. Hope he proves me wrong.
3 Important dates:
.
May 18th – Lottery
.
June 24th – Draft day
.
July 1st – Bosh day
.
Should be an interesting stretch.
.
And if anyone expects Bosh to return, you’ve gotta hope they hit that 0.6% miracle to move into one of the top 3 spots, draft a surefire superstar, somehow deal one of Calderon or Turkoglu, and then get some additional help via the mid-level exception.
I don’t like the odds of any of that happening, quite frankly.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Apr 28, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Odds
.
Obviously our chances (for a lottery WIN) are not great, and moving Jose or another difficult piece will require a little magic / luck.
That being said, I felt the same way last summer before BC started his wheeling and dealing – even if it didn’t work out so well – player-wise. Hopefully Brian’s Cap Specialist has another few tricks up his sleeve. We can only hope.
.
by RapthoseLeafs on Apr 28, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Look for trade possibilities with Dallas, Cuban is going to blow that team up after they exit the playoffs.
Bosh & Noah
.
My spider sense says Noah & Bosh wouldn’t work.
Noah takes down 11 Rebounds a game, while Bosh snags 10.8 per game. There’s only so many to go around. Then there’s the offensive side of the game. Noah being in the post (for those rebounds), means 2 more Bigs to crowd up the area, and less space for CB. With Bargnani, he helped draw out a Big.
.
I realize that CB was in his contract year, and that he toughened up during the summer, but part of me believes Bargnani was indirectly responsible for the improvement in Bosh’s numbers. And hanging around the post with Noah will affect the style that Chicago plays. Someone will suffer – and I’d bet it’s Noah.
If anything, Noah would be a perfect compliment to Andrea. And if I was Chicago – please no choking on this thought – I’d rather have Bargnani than Bosh. One’s at 8 million next year, the latter will cost 17 million.
.
With Andrea, the Bulls would have 40 million committed, with another 16 million left over to grab free agents. And if Hinrich ($9 mil) went the other way, the Bulls total payroll would be 31 million, with 25 million to play with.
.
Just a stupid thought.
.
I agree with you actually
Bargnani would be a much better fit on a team that can hide him defensively and needs a potent scorer
Noah co-existed productively with Horford at Florida, so he can definitely play with another inside player. However, Bosh might not be that guy because he likes to have a clear lane for his drives to the basket. As many have said before, Bosh has a small forward skillset on offense(good jumper, to set up his drives, not that much back to the basket play). That may not mesh especially well with Noah or Rose.
Of the free agent big men available, Boozer might be a better fit for Chicago than Bosh because he has a more traditional PF set of scoring moves. Too bad he’s not a great defender, but then again Noah would probably cover a lot of his mistakes.
After watching Bargnani and Johnson play together I definitely think Bagnani and Noah would have a lot of synergy. As with Boozer, Noah’s defensive acumen would cover a lot of Bargnani’s flaws. Additionally, Bargnani has the size to do a decent job guarding the larger centers of the league that Noah has previously struggled with and who would overpower PFs like Bosh or Boozer. Also, playing beside an engaged, passionate and communicative teammate like Noah, Bargnani might actually be able to keep his head in the game on a more consistent basis.
i think we should draft al farouq aminu, do you guys think he will drop. i think colangelo should try to get a top 2 draft pick ths offseason some how get one
by raptors_run_the_show on Apr 28, 2010 6:56 PM EDT reply actions
Love him but I’d say he’s gone top 7…
Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com
by Adam Francis on Apr 28, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Colangelo
I’ve been reading the posts, mulling over some things and thought I’d offer this now as to my take on Colangelo’s attitude toward draft picks.
I don’t think he signed onto the job to stick around too long, so he has lacked the stomach for the long build. What if he came in with the mandate to simply engage the fanbase with some entertaining style of basketball and a few playoff appearances here and there, maybe a run to the conference finals, which he could then parlay into any position he wanted.
Thus we have a situation where he trades picks, is reluctant to buy picks, and always tries for a significant trade or signing of a known commodity that offers more immediate results.
Babcock had no problem sticking it out for the long run, hence the slow build approach that MLSE soured on rather quickly because of a boisterous fanbase.
Grunwald wanted to finish what he started but wasn’t really given any additional rope after a bad coaching hire.
Perhaps the whole sticking with Triano thing has to do with the acknowledgment that, as a local product, he is willing to stick around for the long haul and take the lumps without concern over his jetting it for greener pastures.
Comparing Colangelo to a Presti or even a Morey in that sense is not fair because his objectives might be much different than the others in that he is not long for these parts and this position was supposed to be a stop-over non-nepotism involved proving ground so that he could name his price in the place(s) of his choosing.
So, about this upcoming draft: It really depends on if there has been a shift in Colangelo’s view on the whole thing. He is either going to be willing to move the pick for one last big swing at keeping his reputation as one of the top GMs in the league or this year has forced a reconsider where he has decided to stick it out for the long haul, thus trading Bosh and whatever else needs to be moved to start over properly.
I am not sure I understand your logic here as you are trying to guess why BC has made the moves he made when he has made them. If you are correct and he has been trying to build instantaneously (i.e. he is building for the short term) then why did he draft DD? Derozan was a project and there were players behind him (Terrance Williams et al) that were considered more NBA ready (not saying they had better seasons, only that they were considered more NBA ready).
Also, why extend Graham then bring in Delfino, Kapono and Moon? He could have just let Graham go. I agree that there appears to be no long term plan but I do not think he came here just to make the playoffs a couple of times and move on. If that was his plan, he would be gone now as NJ was very interested him mid season and the owner of that team (new) looks like he will pay big dollars to win, something we know that MLSE will not do.
franchise do you think even turner is better then john wall ?
by raptors_run_the_show on Apr 28, 2010 11:25 PM EDT reply actions
what do you guys think, is this possible?
by raptors_run_the_show on Apr 28, 2010 11:35 PM EDT reply actions
This trade seems absurd, but with all the athletes that Philly has on their roster maybe they could actually use a guy who is a competent ball handler and decision maker. They were a ton better two years ago with Andre Miller than last year without him. The trade probably can’t go down because Philly’s GM would get run out of town on a rail, but it might actually solve problems for both clubs.
Holiday is the future in Philly at the PG position so it’s not like they are desperate to get a ball handler. Philly was rumoured that they were looking to rebuild so adding Turk wouldn’t make a lot of sense unless they are looking just to save money as Igoudala makes like 5 million more a year then Turk, I do not see this trade happening. If Turks contract was like 2 years shorter as well I think they would consider it under the dump salary idea.
I’d be fine with Ebanks or Henry.
The 4th Line Blog
Go Flames Go
by Justin Azevedo on Apr 28, 2010 11:58 PM EDT reply actions
Warming up to the pick
Initially, I was unhappy that Toronto missed the playoffs and I thought that with Weems, Johnson and DeRozan the team had a decent amount of young talent to work with. As I see this draft gradually getting deeper I am starting to see the benefit of keeping the pick this year and am drifting towards the “buy a second pick if possible” camp. When good talent is available you want to grab as much of it as you can get your hands on.
The Raptors should have enough money to buy a mid to late 1st rounder. There are teams who might be willing to move the pick for cash due to luxury tax issues (Phoenix if they resign Amare, Dallas who are sitting at 84 million next year and Lakers for the same reason. A lot will depend on whether those teams decide to keep things status quo or if they decide simply to start over (unlikely in LA’s & Dallas’ case).
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