Tip-In: Toronto Raptors' Post Game - Breathing Room
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 8, 2010 7:30 AM EST
25 comments
Chris Bosh's return wasn't exactly what Raptors' fans hoped. Instead of an emotional win, the Raps dropped a 114 to 101 decision to the 76ers yesterday afternoon and as Franchise discusses, now have precious little breathing room if they want to ensure a playoff spot...
The Toronto Raptors sit at 32 and 29 on the season, good for sixth in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately they are also only two games out of playoff contention altogether. They've still got 21 games to go, but the next four are on the road against Western Conference foes (including the Lakers and Blazers), and the following two are against the Hawks and Thunder respectively.
Hmm...should I start to be worried about my "over" bet from the start of the season?
After yesterday's loss, the team's fifth in its last six games, it's easy to be concerned. Compounded with the upcoming schedule, it might even be tempting to start reaching for the panic button. At one point Toronto looked well on its way to 45 plus wins but now? Can they hit 38?
I'm here to say all will be ok.
While yesterday's loss, which we'll address in a moment, was needless and frustrating, the team is actually right on my anticipated pace to start the season. In fact, they're still slightly ahead.
Continuing on its current pace, that is to assume that Toronto will win 11 of its final 21 games, the club will finish with 43 wins this season.
My prediction was 42, hence my over bet.
Pace does not factor in schedule of course, so let's take a look at the Raps' remaining matches. Are there 11 games fans can safely pencil in as wins?
It's the NBA, so there are no guaranteed wins of course, but I'm looking at these matches as solid options:
Throw in a couple other lesser options and anything less than a 42 win season would be a big disappointment in my books. It also might mean missing the playoffs.
Currently John Hollinger has Toronto slated for seventh in the East when all is said and done, on pace again for that magic number of 42 wins. I think it's imperative that the Raps hit that target if they want to securely grab a playoff spot, and of course, rising above that number, thus avoiding chances of a seventh place finish and match-up with Cleveland, would be great as well.
However to do this, the team needs to play a lot better than it did yesterday.
Toronto came out flat, and just never got their act together at either end of the floor. For some reason, the team kept going one-on-five offensively, something that you just can't do against a ball-hawking club like Philly, and this led to 15 turnovers and 30 points off the break for the 76ers. Philadelphia was simply too quick and athletic for Toronto on this afternoon, and out hustled the Dinos repeatedly. They won the battle of the boards, the shooting percentages, and free-throw trips and really dominated this one from start to finish.
For the 76ers, Thaddeus Young had a career-high 30 points, and others like Jrue Holiday and Lou Williams were a major pain in Toronto's side all afternoon. And from Toronto, outside Jarrett Jack who had 20 points, there simply was very little resistance.
And for all the hoopla surrounding his return, Chris Bosh was fairly invisible. Yes he looked rusty and understandably was finding his way a bit, but he also wasn't very aggressive at either end of the court. Toronto needs him in top shape for the final quarter of the season, and therefore here's hoping that his locker room visit after a strange fall in the second half, doesn't mean a new injury, or an aggravation of a previous one.
It would be great to have Hedo Turkoglu back for next game as well. Yes, you heard me right. In the past few matches, with players in and out of the line-up, it's felt a bit to me like Jay Triano's been fumbling blindly to find some rotations that work. The Weems and Johnson combo worked well on Friday, but not so much yesterday. And suddenly DeMar's minutes are down as well. With the playoffs drawing closer, establishing a set rotation and some regularity for the players becomes more and more important, and Hedo needs to be part of that, no matter what you may think of his on-court contributions.
With that regularity hopefully comes a more consistent level of energy and effort on the court, so that fans don't see repeat performances of yesterday's loss.
Yes, I still feel this team will be safely in the playoffs when all is said and done, but if efforts like yesterday's keep occuring, I may find myself quickly singing another tune...
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To Work or Coast - Which will it be
Yes I’d say your right, seventh place is realistic. It’s every coaches dream to understand why a group of players will play so poorly one game and great the next and vice versa. Worse still, it seems that it only takes a couple of players not to show up and it can become contageous. It basically comes down to energy but to we observers, it’s hard to understand since they are young ( at the peak of their health) and have every opportunity to rest yet there are so many times that they come out sluggish.
I suspect that they will continue their inconsistant play, beating some good teams and loosing to some poor ones. It all depends if they show up to work or show up to coast.
Great comment
I was thinking about this in the shower this morning (don’t ask) – often I’m quite vocal about giving athletic guys like Weems and DeRozan more run and criticizing Triano yet he did just that yesterday to start the game, and that put the team behind the 8-ball for good. It’s easy to blame coaching but the fact of the matter is, like you mention RT, sometimes for whatever reason, guys just don’t bring it. And that’s indeed what happened yesterday.
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 8, 2010 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
agree completely guys, it almost like a player gets the start and they’re like… I made it because I’m awesome, not because of the actual things they do on the court….
Combine that with the fact they’re suddenly facing the other team’s starters and their rythym is out of wack because they’re used to coming in off the bench and maybe not so hard to see why too much tinkering (forced or not) is a bad thing.
Also – and not that it’s an option for triano – but we would’ve been better off without cb last night… he was obviously weakened and sluggish.
Banks
Not that this would make a massive difference, but I think Banks deserves a little more burn.
Certainly in games like last night’s, where no one is bringing it on D, he could be a spark-plug off the bench. You know he’ll work his tail off every minute, and he’s actually the best defensive point guard on the team. And he can score, so he’s no great detriment on offense. So why not throw him out there when nothing’s working and see if he can help the team get some much-needed stops?
re Banks
One has to wonder whether the fact he has no future with the team beyond the end of his current contract plays a role. Trot him out every now and then, just to show the rest of the league that he indeed has a pulse. And hopefully opposing GMs won’t hang up the phone when they hear that Marcus Banks is being included in a potential deal to even out salary.
Exactly
Toronto faces Golden State twice actually so I split the wins/losses on that one, and there are a few others that they could steal. So while I don’t expect the Raps to win all 11 that I posted above, they should be able to grab most and a few outside of this box, to even things out.
Again, the key is they “should.”
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 8, 2010 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
Mediocrity...A Frustrating Place to be In
There is still such a huge gap between us and the Elite teams. How are we going to get there. Even if we sign Bosh, its unrealistic to expect him to get much better. Our point guard play is adequate but not likely to get better. There is no draft pick on the horizon unless we finish out of the playoffs and if that happens, we likely lose Bosh. Turk is Turk. I’m not counting on our MLE this year with so many teams with cap space and our ownership’s unwillingness to spend crazy money.
It all comes down to one of DD or Barg’s taking a major step forward. While I expect Barg’s to continue to show gradual improvements, given how long he has already been in the league, I’m doubtful. DD better work his tail off this summer!
Exactly. I mean, I was thinking and…does it really matter if we manage to crawl into the playoffs but get beaten in the first round in 4-5 games? What difference does it make? Playoffs are nice yea, but we all pretty much know they wont be making any noise if they do get in anyway. So why the fuss? It’s all pointless
Bosh Contract
I agree with you but for one thing. I think playoffs do matter to Bosh. They at least show him progress. Were it not for that, I would be doing what I usualy do this time of year, cheering for losses in the hope that we get lucky in the lottery. I do agree that a first round playoff loss does not excite me.
Ding Ding Ding
Bang on, and really, it gets back to what I was saying in the off-season. At best I saw a 45 win team; fairly solid, but still not in even the East’s elite let alone league’s. And with precious little cap room even if Bosh leaves, and no future prospects, it’s hard to see where a big jump would come from barring some major trades.
That’s why in the off-season I profiled 3 players as the team’s X Factors; Bargs, DeRozan and Hedo in that order. While he’s still wildly inconsistent, Andrea has at least continued at his pace towards the end of last season for the most part, and that’s been key in the Raptors’ success so far. However DeRozan has been a non-factor, and it’s hard to say that Hedo’s been much of a boost either. It’s been guys like Weems and Amir Johnson that have overproduced, along with Bosh of course, that really have carried this club.
So it’s a real bind. Realistically, for major improvement to take place Toronto should miss the playoffs and get a lottery pick in what looks to be a fairly solid draft. However this year, it’s hard to advocate that considering the Bosh situation…
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 8, 2010 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
I know the Bosh situation is a factor but I dont think a first round loss excites HIM either. This team is really stuck in no man’s land with a couple of bad contracts that no one will want, not to mention BC’s ego wont let him even attempt to trade them. Someone just has to take their game to the next level. Besides Bosh, we’re just a team full of good but not great players. For a team to break into that upper echelon, you need to have more than one player who plays at a very high level all over the court. Think – Thunder (Westbrook, Durant + nice pieces), Atlanta (Joe Johnson, Josh Smith + nice pieces). Bargnani frustrates me to the max for this point. There’s just no reason for him to not bring it on a regular basis. We’ve seen him follow up an 11 board game with 17 boards the next game at one point this season. We’ve seen him routinely drop 20 points and block 3,4,5 shots. Why the hell does it all just go away? Fine, if all the Bargnani lovers want to claim that he’s facing more double teams and teams are keying in on him (which I think is bogus anyway), fine. There’s still no reason for him to disappear on the defensive end. We’ve heard repeatedly that defence is a product of effort more than anything else. It’s pretty sad when he’s barely outrebounding some 2s in the league. We’ve seen him play at an extremely high level. If he was consistent, this team would be so much better.
…not to mention BC’s ego wont let him even attempt to trade them.
Where do you get that opinion from? If anything, BC has shown that he is not afraid of admitting he made a mistake and then correcting that mistake.
The only mistake I can remember him rectifying was the JO trade. I do not remember him ever saying he made a mistake making that trade in the first place. He’s done some stupid sh*t, you can’t deny that. Bargnani’s inconsistency is infuriating for a 4th-year 1st overall pick, not to mention that untimely contract extension he was given. The value of it is acceptable I guess. Hedo and Calderon are on long, terrible contracts, too. So basically its 1/4, you can give him the benefit of the doubt for 2 of the contracts since they were handed out before this season. But the fact is, he’s made some really bold moves that’ve backfired and crippled this team going forward. This is simply a bad situation. As far as my reasoning for thinking he’s not admitting his mistakes go, it’s my opinion because everytime I watch a Raptors game and they ask a viewer to send in a question, there is no hint of regret whatsoever in his responses. Obviously, he’s not going to just say blatantly he’s made a mistake, but he pretends like the moves he made were a masterstroke and that is far from the truth.
There is an element of luck when your competing against 29 other teams over a small group of available players at any one time. Even with cap space, if you end up overpaying your fifth free agent option, how much further along are you?
Internal improvement is the name of the game. Until we see meaningful improvements, Colangelo is on the right track auditioning wings that other teams may have overlooked. With our current cap situation, our best bet for a wing is to bring them in by the boatload and audition them in our crappy rotation. If they breakout, we then go over the cap to resign them. If not, throw them out and take in a fresh batch. The practice of signing veteran wings is of no use, since the only ones we can afford will forever keep us at the bottom of every list for wing production. I’m happier taking a chance on Belinelli, Weems and DeRozan, then seeing Jamario, Parker, and Kapono in Raptors red. Those guys had their chance, and we all saw what they can and cannot do. In the case of Jamario, he didn’t change very much, and that could be an indictment of his advanced age, lack of dedication to his craft, or a combination of both.
My next question is how much value should we assign to Antoine Wright? He’s not that old, but I have the sneaking suspician that he may get a contract that is at least one year too long. I hope against hope that the other wings in the rotation can show enough that his agent doesn’t go into the offseason thinking he’s the only game in town. Let him shop around, and we’ll get back to him once the market has settled for players of his ilk.
Wright is only 26
I like him. While he is by no means an Artest or Battier, he is the closest thing we have to a stopper. I also like his versatility to defend multiple positions. Someone however needs to impress upon him what his role is. I’m fine with him taking open looks but he has to stop trying to create. If he can accept that role, I’m all in favour of resigning him.
Bargs
Didn’t get to see the game yesterday, but I imagine from the non-mention he was a non-factor?
Should his minutes start to go down in favour of someone else like Amir Johnson?
Ball.
Andrea was pretty invisible yesterday for the most part, but no-more so than any other Raptor not named Jarrett Jack (or maybe Reggie Evans.) He had one good stretch on offense when he was aggressive down low, and the team as a result kept going to him, but at times his head didn’t seem in the game either.
Example? Fourth quarter he caught the ball near the top of the key after it had swung around the perimeter, and rifled a bullet pass inside hoping to get an easy score. Only the pass was to Reggie Evans, who was unprepared, and fumbled it out of bounds. Just not exactly a smart play considering the receiving target. Bosh, sure. Evans? Um…
I’m not sure this means his minutes need to decrease, but he definitely needs to be more of a factor on this upcoming road trip of Toronto wants to get back home at .500.
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 8, 2010 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
papa
I still think bargs is going through some growing pains right now as he becomes more of a focus for other teams to shut down. learning how to deal with doubles and help defence is his next hurdle and if the past is any indication, he’ll come out fine. (except it might not be until next season.)
Stretch run
Yesterday’s loss was frustrating to watch, but I saw it coming a mile away. The reality is that this team hasn’t played a really good game in quite some time. Sure they’ve won some games, but that’s more a factor of inferior competition than superior performance.
The defense has been in regression ever since Jose got back from injury. I’m not blaming him entirely, but the defensive drop-off from Banks to him is significant. That’s the trade-off though…..more offense with Jose, or more defense with Banks. What bothers me more is that Triano doesn’t give Banks a little run in a game like yesterday, where everyone is flat and Jack or Calderon aren’t stopping their defensive assignment. To me, it reflects a coach not wanting to ruffle any feathers, instead of what he should be doing….trying to win.
But that raises the question: Are we trying to win? I mean REALLY trying to win? Derozan’s been unproductive most of the season, yet he continues to get meaningful minutes. Turkoglu has cost us numerous games, yet he continually gets trotted out there without recourse. We hear all the right things from this team, but their actions tell another story.
We are in the stretch run now and some hard decisions have to be made regarding the rotation if we are serious about winning. To me that means more Johnson, less Bargnani & more Weems and Wright and alot less Derozan. I have zero confidence that’s the way it’ll play out though.
ACC critique
Was at the ACC a couple times over the weekend (near who I believe were Derozan’s folks/family since they were both wearing Derozan shirts). I noticed a few times when that they would change the upped ad lights just under the 500 level often when the Raps were on offense and it would change the darkness on the court. Not sure if much connection, though this often lead to a lost possession with a bad shot, etc… Raps’ brass should really look into this as it is a detriment to the team (or could be used when the opposition has the ball).
out of the teams Miami,bucks,bobcats,bulls who has the toughest schedule
we might still finish 5th if we can put up a good run at the end dont lose hope over on bad game i still believe in our team and im looking for a good show against the lakers
by raptors_run_the_show on Mar 8, 2010 8:40 PM EST reply actions
Bargs
he seems tired out there maybe he needs a couple game to energize his game.
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