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Tip-In: Toronto Raptors' Post-Game Report - Time for a Change

With their fifth straight loss, the Toronto Raptors drop a game under .500 for the first time since January.  Although last night's defeat at the hands of the Portland Trailblazers showcased a better effort from the Raps, Franchise notes that it still wasn't enough, and hopes a changes are coming...

Star-divide

DeMar DeRozan should not be this bad a defender.

He's long, quite athletic, has good lateral quickness, and seems to be a very hard worker.

However check these numbers:

22, 35, 19, 32, 21.

Those are the point totals for the players DeMar DeRozan has been tasked with guarding the past five games, all Toronto losses.

Now, those aren't all directly attributable to DD.  Various other Raptors had a hand in those totals as well.  However I threw these numbers up to point out something that I don't think has been discussed enough this season; for all the jeers thrown the way of Andrea and the Ottoman, DeRozan has flown under the radar in terms of criticism.  Toronto is just not getting enough from him to validate his consistent starting line-up inclusion.

The easy defence for DD of course, is that he's only a rookie.  Many a folk replied with something of this nature last night on Twitter, when I was calling out DeRozan's lack of defense.

However I'd like to point out that of the five totals above, three of them came from members of his rookie class; Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry.  In addition, amongst the 2009 alumni class, DeRozan has hardly lived up to his draft billing statistically.  His PER is better than only Wes Matthews, Holiday, Chris Hunter, James Johnson, Jeff Teague, Eric Maynor, Terrence Williams, Wayne Ellington, Jodie Meeks and DeMarre Carroll...yes, hardly players likely to compete for the rookie of the year award. 

In addition, DeRozan plays twice as many minutes per game as most of these guys.  So the whole "he's only a rookie," defence doesn't hold a lot of water.  Yes, that's true, and we'll get to that in a second, however there are plenty of rookies that are providing solid value for the teams that drafted them.  In fact, if you were to do a re-draft of last year's crop based on this year's play to date, wouldn't the top 15 picks go something like this?

1  Blake Griffin
2  Tyreke Evans
3  Steph Curry
4  Brandon Jennings
5  Darren Collison
6  Ty Lawson
7  DeJuan Blair
8  Jonny Flynn
9  James Harden
10  Omri Caspi
11  Jonas Jerebko
12  Marcus Thornton
13  Taj Gibson
14  Rod Beaubois
15  Chase Budinger

You could arguably go 20 deep adding names like Holiday, Cunningham and Ibaka before even getting to DeMar.

That's not to say DeMar is a bust of a pick, it's way too early for that, and it's not the purpose of this blog post to make that argument.  But it should be quite obvious by now to the Raptors' brass that he is a long ways away from providing the contributions this team needs, especially at the defensive end of the floor.  Outside his individual stats, 82games.com has shown all season that line-ups containing him at the shooting guard spot, just aren't getting the job done statistically.

So the question is, why does Toronto keep throwing him out there at this point?

It's fine to pull the "Hoffa" in my books if you're a) a lottery team or b) securely in a high playoff seed so can afford the rookie some learning room, however the Raptors are in neither.  (Although you could argue they're sliding towards the former.)  With their fifth loss in a row last night, and two more certain ones on the horizon, it's desperation time.  If Triano is willing to pull Jack from the starting five, as he did last night to start the second half, how about DeMar as well!?  There are only so many times that I can watch he and Jose, needlessly double-team players, leaving their own men open for 3-point shots.  DeRozan did this time and time again last night with Nicolas Batum, and he burned the Raps on nearly every occasion.

However this post isn't meant to be a "pick on DeMar" affair.  Really, the point of this is to illustrate that he's one piece of this problematic starting line-up, the one according to 82games.com that has a plus/minus of -82, wins only about a third of the time it's on the court, and routinely gets outscored by the opposing team's starting crew.  Look no further than the third quarters of games the past few weeks for evidence that this unit isn't getting the job done.  In fact last night, not only did Triano pull Jarrett Jack and replace him with Jose Calderon, but early on he yanked Andrea Bargnani too, after Bargs stood around yet again and watched the Blazers grab offensive rebounds from under his nose.

Now ordinarily, this late in the season, I wouldn't advocate drastic changes.

But considering the state of affairs the Raps are in currently, and that it seems the eighth seed is a lock at the least considering the Bulls' woes, why not?

How does a Jack-Weems-Wright-Bosh-Bargnani combo?  Statistically, it's the five-man unit that's provided TO with the best defence. 

Or what about Jack-Belinelli-Turk-Bosh-Bargs, the club's best offensive group statistically this season?

There are definitely a number of ways you could go.

Personally I'd like to see Jack-Weems/Belinelli-Wright-Bosh-Johnson to start games, with Bargs playing the sixth man role, and Hedo, Calderon and DeRozan (in spot minutes) following up for a pretty tight rotation.  I think that's a much more balanced group and one that will be better suited to start games.

The problem is, I'd bet anything that it's not going to happen.

Triano has at times shown some grit and sat his over-paid legions, but overall, the same issues keep rearing their ugly heads, and short of completely new personnel (not happening until this summer obviously), the only way to deal with said issues is to either swap the deck chairs, or institute some drastic tactical changes.

I'd argue that this late in the season, tactical changes, outside of say more focus on zone D or something to that effect, are trickier than moving the pieces around so it's the latter Triano and co. should try first.  After all, last night when Jay sat Andrea in favour of Amir Johnson, and went with the Calderon-Bosh-Johnson-Weems-Hedo group, the Raps finally started to cut into Portland's lead, and play some solid D.  The point being, while the Raps are never going to be a lock-down team, with the right pieces in place, it's possible to at least be respectable in this area.

Considering Toronto's offensive prowess, respectable on defence would be huge.

In fact it would undoubtedly be the difference between at least a .500 road swing and this five game skid Toronto is currently stuck in.

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Comments

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I agree that moving Weems into the starting lineup is a must on so many levels. I think that the Raptors have decided on hiding him by bringing him off the bench to keep his value low for next season. If they start him and he plays well (or in his case better than DiDi which would be automatic) other teams might look to steal him knowing the Raptors will have difficulty signing him with their cap situation. So Sad.

I am not sure staring Wright over Hedo is much of an answer as that would just turn our bench into tripe. At least now with Wright coming off the bench, our bench tends to out play the other teams bench so we have that to look forward to every night.

by McGateway on Mar 15, 2010 8:02 AM EDT reply actions  

re Weems

I believe Weems is already signed for next year to a non guaranteed min contract.

by Johnn19 on Mar 15, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think a lot of this comes back to statistical analysis of the lineup. You can reference the data provided by 82games.com to determine the ideal starting lineup/rotation. But at the end of the day, if Jay Triano and Bryan Colangelo aren’t paying attention to this type of analysis — and are still married to the idea that Bargnani and Turkoglu are the foundation of a 5th seed — then this joke is going to continue through April.

There’s a reason why there’s a significant difference in the win percentage between teams that employ advanced statistical analysis and teams that don’t.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Mar 15, 2010 9:54 AM EDT reply actions  

Agreed

Again – time to head back to the ACC to ask some tough questions regarding use of stats…

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 15, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Celtics

The shame of it is, if Toronto could have gotten that Lakers win, and won some of these ones that looked like W’s on paper (Sacto, Philly, G State etc), they could be closing in on the Celtics, who look like they’re caught in a death spiral themselves…

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 15, 2010 10:31 AM EDT reply actions  

Or at the VERY LEAST, you hang onto that 5th seed and a first round match-up with those same struggling Celtics. Then you probably get past the first round and re-sign your All-Star PF. Oh well.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Mar 15, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Calderon's defense...

… is still the hole that most teams pick on. Look at Andre Miller last night.

We can’t have Calderon out there at the end of games, because the other team’s PG either blows by him or posts him up.

by B.C. on Mar 15, 2010 10:46 AM EDT reply actions  

The irony here is that he doesn’t always hit his shots at the end of games when he is out there with Jack so I can’t help but wonder why the hell he is out there at all over Wright or Weems. It is almost as if Triangelo are afraid to roll the dice with their FA’s to be. They need to accept that it is best for the team to run out the best lineup regardless of where those players may end up in the future. Doubt it will happen though.

by McGateway on Mar 15, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Jose makes some truly puzzling decisions on D. It’s not even just getting blown by, sometimes he decides to double random players thus leaving his man wide open on the perimeter. Now maybe he’s simply following Triano’s schemes, who knows. But it cost Toronto at least 9 points last night.

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 15, 2010 10:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

The half-hearted double teaming and constant switching on defence drive me nuts. It’s easy to blame the players, but I think it’s as much a function of the system. Triano just doesn’t recognize that he is lacking the players to pull off whatever the hell it is he’s trying to accomplish on D.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Mar 15, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

They switch everytime screen is set. Teams have recognized this immaturity and use it against them. What happened to the good ’ol days of fighting over screens???

by Slick_Rick on Mar 15, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

As I mentioned the other day in my recap, Steph Curry even called this out post-game as a big reason why their backcourt had such success!

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 15, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

No kidding — go OVER the screen if it’s a guy like Steph Curry or go UNDER if it’s a guy that can’t shoot… this is basic, people…

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Mar 15, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

no wonder

ever wonder why it seems like in every loss its an opposing backcourt that goes off for 50 or 60 points…its because they love the switches, and guys like bosh and bargs arent quick enough to stick on guys like curry and ellis…and then go figure if they happen to miss they seem to get an offensive rebound because guys like calderon and derozan cant box out the opposing bigs they just switched on…the switching is what makes our defense as bad as it is. Whether or not that is a personel problem or a coaching problem can be debated, but i think its both.

by dbonds on Mar 15, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d say both for sure. Yes, the Raptors have some terrible defensive players but the system doesn’t seem to be helping them…a lethal combination indeed.

Adam Francis

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 16, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

re Calderons defense

Do you watch Jack’s defense, he is no better than Jose. During the losing streak opposing starting PG’s are shooting 52%, 7 rebounds and 18 ppg vs the Rap’s starting PG.

Do you watch any other games, one on one defense against guards in the NBA is a thing of the past. It requires team defense or 2 on 1 to defend talented guards now days.

by Johnn19 on Mar 15, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jack vs. Calderon

Jack at least used his body to somwhat control Miller’s post-ups/bumps, Jose was bowled over and/or played matador and let him blow by.

by B.C. on Mar 15, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Jack’s help defense is miles better than Jose but yes, he hasn’t exactly been the answer either. That’s why in my last two posts I’ve called out the entire team. This isn’t just a “Jose” or “Andrea” issue – this is a team of mediocre to terrible defensive players. And yes, nowadays you can’t just depend on a “stopper.” That helps, but you need a contingent (and a Dwight Howard type doesn’t hurt), plus a system that maximizes those defensive skill sets.

I’d argue that Toronto has none of these.

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 15, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

starting lineup

Do we all agree that Toronto needs defence? Then Why not start Wright at the 2? Who cares if he’s not on our team next year, this guy was balling for a pretty good Dallas club last year.

by freddier on Mar 15, 2010 11:06 AM EDT reply actions  

Wright is an option but I still think you roll out Weems as he is the perfect blend of youth, defense and offense giving you a good look at him as a possible resign in the offseason. I just do not have the faith in Triangelo to look at this possibility.

by McGateway on Mar 15, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ideally your suggestions sounds good, but...

I am convinced that Triano will not make any lineup changes. He is following in step with Sam Mitchell who never acknowledged that change was needed. The mark of a good coach is recognizing the weaknesses or chemistry problems in lineups.

When your bench out-performs the starters on a nightly basis there has to be a shakeup. DeMar has hit the rookie wall so hard that he is unconscious. Triano cannot force production out a player that still needs a couple seasons under his belt. It is no fault of DeMar’s that he’s not being as productive as Triano had envisioned.

I find that the Raptors coaching staff do not rely on statistical production at all. Basketball is a numbers and hustle game, if you are not producing on the court your butt needs to be relegated to the sidelines… I am speaking to you Hedo

by Slick_Rick on Mar 15, 2010 11:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Hustle is something you can't learn...discuss.

I think you can yell at Bargs and Hedo until the oceans dry up but they will never learn to hustle the way we want them too. Half the time Bargs is wiping the sleep out of his eyes while his opponent is flashing by, and Hedo is just too flat footed to make any real difference on D. At Calderon to this mix and you have some bad paella. Derozan, well, he’s a kid amongst men. With his size he needs mad skillz like Curry and he’s just getting out muscled and out worked on defense.
I like the idea of a Jack-Weems-Wright-Bosh-Bargnani starting 5 with short noose on Bargs.
These babies have to man up pdq or else the season is lost along with Bosh.

"Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do." – Goethe.

by Oldskewl on Mar 15, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think he was asking if that quote was from Faust, a story re-writen by Goethe.

by McGateway on Mar 15, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with OldSkewl- we need action. So I thought I would become a do-er.

No pacts with the devil though, or devlin….lol

by Jenge on Mar 15, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Please no Devl-in pacts. Listening to him last night trying to put a positive spin on things was bad enough.

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 15, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jenge are you Naija? I see WS

by Scores on Mar 15, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry not Naija. What’s WS?

by Jenge on Mar 15, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jenge are you Naija? I see WS

Oh! Wole Soyinka… Damn it…. I have been…BUSTED….

Now I have to change my profile Pic…. perhaps I will go with Shabba Ranks and a trailer’load’a’dem’girls’girls’everyday…..

by Jenge on Mar 15, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can we Conclude?

Just wondering if we can agree on a simple consensus here. Perhaps we can make an impact by keeping things simple and writing a letter to JT, BC and perhaps the Team?

This season:

1. That our starting five needs to be revised, as at no time this season has the current arrangement worked.
a. That developing DeMar has beeen a good activity, but it’s time for this team to either designate or set about discovering which player should start at SG;
b. That playing Turkoglu as a starter (for whatever reasons they may be) needs to change. He might be a valubale asset off the bench, especially if he doesn’t pick up early fouls that can constrain his Balling later in the game. I hope he will continue to work on his conditioning and tenacity; I hope we can explore other avenues for a starting SF.

2. Acknowledge that from a defensive perspective – there are liabilities in crunch time with Jose finishing games. This shouldn’t undermine any of the positive aspects that he brings to the team. In fact he should be commended for everything he as achieved this season.

3. Acknowledge that our Bench has done a fantastic job this season.

4. Congratulate Rasho for being the Raptor with the highest Shooting% of all time; and CB4 for approaching the 10,000 pts as a Raptor threshold.

5. SIgn Bargnani up for Judo classes immediately. I think it would help his game.

Do you think we can come up with a short statement like this?

by Jenge on Mar 15, 2010 12:28 PM EDT reply actions  

I would rather Bargnani bought some Stick-em.
I have never completely understood the reasoning behind starting Demar over almost any other 2 we have but I was willing to say that maybe the coaches felt that he needed the sure minutes. It is time though that he go to the deep bench to wave pompoms with Rasho. Even if we think he didn’t hit the rookie wall before the season started, I think we can all agree that he is not going to get any better this year. I really like the idea of starting both Weems and Wright and bringing Turk off the bench where he can have more of an impact. I doubt Turk would handle the “demotion” though. BBallers tend to be overly egotistical and are too concerned with titles like starter even if the end up playing the same minutes as a starter would. Too bad as it might be interesting to see what a bench with Calderon, Turk, and Johnson coming off the bench would look like.

by McGateway on Mar 15, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ball

Turk is just more effective when he handles the ball on offense. He worked with J. Nelson because Nelson is primarily a combo guard who can be highly effective just shooting.

It seems to me that putting Turk on the court with Calderon as starters or bench guys you still will get the same mediocre results from Turk.

by Buddahfan on Mar 15, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I might agree with that statement except that Hedo can’t play with Jack who is more of a dribble penetrator then a pure passer like Calderon. Calderon and Hedo could play on the second unit together if Calderon took on more of the shooter role at the PG position while Hedo was out there. Just my opinion but we know Jack/Hedo aint working so why not try something else.

by McGateway on Mar 15, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really like this idea. Hedo wouldn’t take the demotion well of course so that’s an issue, but I think playing him with Jose and making Jose the gunner would be worth a shot.

Hell, why not at this point?

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Mar 15, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

PRESS RELEASES

Do you guys have any ideas about making a press release or pursuing some form of advocacy if we can generate some form of consensus? I say this meaning that we aren’t asking questions… We are asserting.

Perhaps we can get some federal and provincial stimulus $$$ while we are at it (joke).

The joke is about the money – letting Triangelo & the Players know what we think isn’t.

Criticism is helpful if it is short, clear and to the point. More temperance than vitriol.

by Jenge on Mar 15, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Have to disagree with the Demar criticizm

The guy isnt lighting the world on fire, but by no means was he the reason the Raps lost to Portland again. As a Blazer fan, I couldnt help but notice the change in body language and intesity everytime that the “starters” got in the game. Roy also played worse last night then he had in his previous 3 games and Demar actually looked ok.

The Bargnani, Hedo, Calderon lineups are just too, how do I put it………SOFT. Seems like Weems, Amir Johnson, Derozan, and Jack were at least palying with some intensity. They werent hitting shots, but the effort was there.
The problem is and has been with the Raptors a lack of toughness inside. As much as us Blazer fans harp on Lamarcus for not banging the boards, Bargnani is a complete defensive and rebounding joke

Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson

by Benson on Mar 15, 2010 2:03 PM EDT reply actions  

I think you are missing the point here. Derozan doesn’t do enough on offense or defense consistently to warrant a starting job. You cannot tell me that having someone with more confidence and knowledge of the NBA game will not help the starting unit.

by McGateway on Mar 15, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

No I can understand that

But the guy is a rookie who only played 1 year of mediocre college ball. He certainly need seasoning. I just think you have to have a LOT of patience with a player that young. Unfortunately the Raps are trying to make the playoffs so its tough watching a young guy try to develop.

maybe he shouldnt be a starter, but I didnt see anybody else who was killing it last night to take his place. maybe Weems?

Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson

by Benson on Mar 15, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

So what do we agree on?

OK, so what should we conclude?

1. Turk won’t like being demoted, reassigned, redeployed or whatever its called .
-I think and feel that whatever the team needs override this;

2. Turk + Calderon on Bench might not be the greatest.
-I agree with the concerns, but to be fair I think the jury is out on this one. But it won’t take long to figure it out.

3. I don’t think we are bashing DeMar. He’s a rookie and playing starting SG in the NBA which is not easy at all.
 
My two cents: I don’t think the argument that we should keep Turk in the starting line-up for those reasons is compelling. I guess we need to figure out real quick which guards should play with Turk and go from there? Marcus Banks is my first choice. Maybe throw in some Jarret Jack and Rasho to stabilize things. Add one other… and we have Baby steps

by Jenge on Mar 15, 2010 2:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Actually, Derozan’s issues have nothing to do with the position he plays and everything to do with his overall basketball smarts, ability, experience or whatever you want to call it. We all knew going into the season he was a raw talent. He needs more polish before he will be impact player. SG is probably one of easier positions to learn (at least on offense) and it isn’t a surprise that if you look at the rookies who produce the most, a lot of them are SG/SFs.

by McGateway on Mar 15, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

So we agree at least that:

1. At least one of Bargs or Turk should be yanked from the Starting Five or what I would rather call our ‘Default Setting’;

2. DeRozan shouldn’t have the pressure of being a starter. I think he knows he is respected – I think he can find his own groove. It’s time to put the team first.

by Jenge on Mar 15, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bargnani shouldn't start and his minutes should be limited

He got the starting job by default and because he’s Colangelo’s boy. The starting five should be served better with Amir Johnson rather than Bargnani. There will be more hustle with Amir playing more.
Bargnani should be playing garbage time since all he does is hoist those treys.
A 7-foot, 265 pound dud.

~Why worry? We'll all die anyway~

by chilimon on Mar 15, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Amir starting = possible foul trouble

Rasho starting = gives the ‘SS Raptor’ a Keel.

What do you think?

by Jenge on Mar 15, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

why couldnt this downfall come before the trade deadline?

im getting sick…. bosh is walking closer to his way out of this team. im scared. david lee anyone?

by tea time on Mar 15, 2010 4:09 PM EDT reply actions  

to me raps are not making past the 2nd round.

we either face cavs. which we’ll lose (nba will make sure cavs get to at least conference finals). orlando. which is another loss. vince carter anyone? you know he’’l bring his triple A game. atlanta. theyre just way too athletic for us. and finally boston. who i feel we may… have a chance. but the way charlotte, milwaukee are winning and toronto in a major slump, seems like we wouldnt even make it to the 5th spot to face the ageing, but experienced boston club. times are looking bleak…. very bleak in raptorland. and for all toronto sports.

i just hope colangelo does something major this offseason. maybe trade away hedo and bargs (who i still think is good, but just not right for this weak defensive and rebounding team). cause seriously we need bosh, and we need to support him with more athletic and rugged players. who can actually rebound!!!

by tea time on Mar 15, 2010 4:19 PM EDT reply actions  

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