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RaptorsHQ Trade Deadline Breakdown


This Thursday marks the NBA's trade deadline and in preparation, RaptorsHQ takes a quick look at some possible options for the Toronto Raptors...

Star-divide

Has another Western Conference arms race begun?

Late last night it was announced that as a follow-up to Dallas acquiring Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood from the Washington Wizards, the Portland Trailblazers had obtained the services of Marcus Camby, exchanging under-appreciated point guard Steve Blake and athletic wing Travis Outlaw.

So my question this morning then is, who's next?

You may recall that two seasons ago, the Lakers nabbed Pau Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies for what at the time, seemed like nothing, setting off two more momentous Western Conference trades resulting in new homes for Jason Kidd, Shaq, Shawn Marion and Devin Harris.

Well, it looks like it might be happening again.

Only this time the East could be more prominently involved in this "one-upmanship."

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat are believed to be pressing hard for the services of Amare Stoudemire, and the Boston Celtics sound like they're trying to add another key piece to their puzzle as well.

And this brings us to our Toronto Raptors; should this club be looking to make any upgrades and if so where?

To the former part of the question, I'm not sure they should.  The team has been playing very well since mid-December, and hasn't really even had a chance to field a completely healthy roster yet this season.  Last Wednesday's match against Philly was probably as close as they've come now that Reggie Evans is back.  What Bryan Colangelo doesn't want to do is bring in a new face that disrupts the current chemistry and on-court success.

That's not to say that there aren't areas on this team that couldn't use a boost however.

Toronto's defence is still efficiency-wise, the worst in the league thanks to their historically porous start, and some additional rebounding and toughness wouldn't be a bad thing.

However if you were to point at the Dino's roster and identify any glaring holes in particular, they would probably come at the swing positions.  We've discussed this before, but the Raptors have been one of the worst teams in the league in terms of getting production from the 2 and 3 spots.  According to 82games.com, Toronto's combined PER at those two spots is 26.3 - the league averge is 32.2.  Hedo has been the main culprit in this regard but until recently, Antoine Wright was even worse and rookie DeMar DeRozan hasn't exactly set the NBA ablaze as of yet.  If Bryan Colangelo is looking for an upgrade in an area, it would be these two positions.

But can you actually move Hedo Turkoglu?  He's on the books for another four years with $44M owing, and his production has hardly warranted those numbers.  Not to mention that he hasn't even shown signs of being able to live up to those gaudy figures down the road.  BC in the past has been quick to move pieces that just didn't fit, but in this case, I think he's stuck unless he's prepared to give up young assets like DeMar DeRozan and Amir Johnson.

And speaking of DeMar?  Can you relegate him to the bench at this point in the season, and on the heels of what should be a confidence-boosting All-Star break, if you bring in a more experienced 2-guard?  Statistically I'd argue that it makes sense, but as we know, the game of basketball isn't all about stats.

The reality is that I think Colangelo will sit this trade deadline out.

He's got a few spare parts that he could probably do without (Reggie Evans, Marcus Banks, definitely Patrick O'Bryant), but they're not going to fetch much more in return unless packaged with a bigger fish.  And even non-essential pieces like Marco Belinelli and Sonny Weems have niche roles on this club, ones that are important enough that I'm not sure Colangelo wants to screw with them.

I'm expecting a quiet trade deadline on the Raptors' front this season, however that's not to say there aren't a few swingmen out there who I think would look great in a Raps' uniform.  These include Leandro Barbosa, Ronnie Brewer, Corey Brewer, Anthony Morrow, Tayshaun Prince and Chris Douglas-Roberts among others. 

Could Toronto steal a Prince or a Douglas-Roberts from a beleaguered team looking to cut costs or start over?  What about making a play for someone like Mike Dunleavy Jr, hardly a star, but perhaps a player who could be had for relatively cheap and who sports some nice upside?

If you've spent any time with ESPN's Trade Machine or RealGM's Trade Checker over the past while, you know that any such deal is tough.  Toronto has too many long-term locked-in deals that are probably unmoveable, and of their smaller contracts, many are important pieces to this team right now, or players who would fetch little value in return.

In fact I'd argue that Toronto is in the toughest "buyer" spot right now of nearly any team in the league; they're rolling so don't want to change too much, however haven't had enough tough games recently to determine if the record is more a product of the schedule, or of a team ready to take that proverbial next step.

So I'll end it on this.

If I'm Bryan Colangelo, I listen to offers over the next few days, but unless any blow me away, (aka get Hedo out the door), I'm not budging.  However there is one call I'd have already placed, and that's to Memphis' GM Chris Wallace.

It's no secret that the Grizz haven't decided what to do with Rudy Gay as of yet and are loath to pay him big money next season.  But if Colangelo called and offered Hedo and DeMar, for Gay, Steven Hunter and DeMarre Carroll, wouldn't Memphis have to do it?  They'd grab a talented 3 with a guaranteed deal AND a great future replacement for Gay in DeMar!

For Toronto obviously Rudy would be a big upgrade at the 2 or 3, he'd be a better fit than Hedo, they'd be able to get his salary off the books, and make an even bigger pitch this way at retaining Bosh.  A starting line-up of Jack, Gay, Wright, Bosh and Bargs would be pretty solid while Carroll is a nice Amir Johnson-esque type off the bench.  Hunter would simply be a throw in to make the deal work financially.

The danger of course would be renting Gay as there's no guarantee he'd re-sign along with Bosh in the off-season.  I think that's a chance I'd take however as at worst, Gay walks and Toronto has a good piece of cap room to use to go after someone else in next year's talented free-agent crop.

The Grizz are in town tomorrow night and we'll be taking in the game via media access.

I'm not getting my hopes up, but let's just say I'm hoping to catch Colangelo and Wallace in the middle of what looks like some serious negotiations...

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Hedo

The more I watch Hedo with the team, the more I think he’s kind of like that slightly loose thread sticking out at the corner of the side pocket of your pants. You think it’s makes sense to get rid of it, but then you pull it out and the entire side opens up exposing your thigh. You try to fix it with some decent new thread but it doesn’t look as nice or fit as well.

Getting Gay is an interesting idea but how much will he want to resign? The beauty of the Hedo situation is that you know how much he’s going to cost and you know that whatever he’s contributing to your team is translating to wins. It’s an easier baseline to work with when contemplating future improvements. Also, wing production might be an issue because the Raptors generate most of their offense from their front-court, unlike a lot of teams where the PF and C are fill in the gaps sorts.

And why give up your current starting 2 AND 3 for a starting 3 who might price himself out of long-term consideration? Do you not think DeMar will improve enough next year to be an exceptional price for performance piece on a competitive team?

These are the questions I’d ask before jumping at the idea.

by HQ Interloper on Feb 16, 2010 10:35 AM EST reply actions  

I guess it depends on how sold you are on DeMar to a certain extent. If you view him as a similar player to Gay but a few years younger, you’d be mad to make the deal. However if you’re like me, and believe he’ll be a solid role player in the league, but nothing more, than you make the swap.

I like the “thread” analogy for Hedo though, and maybe BC waits a playoff run to see if he “tightens up the whole sweater” during crunch time.

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Feb 16, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

DeMar

I expect the next few weeks to tell us exactly what we have in DeMar. His year in college, he started off slowly and then showed himself to be an impressive prospect with some inspiring play in the latter part of the year (according to accounts I read here having not seen him play in college). It will be interesting to watch him over the next few weeks to see if a similar pattern holds now that he should be more comfortable with his situation. Here is where I think the All-Star weekend participation was useful in that he probably came away feeling more like part of the fraternity. Even some of his comments about the weekend, where he suggests that he’ll be a player in the league for years so might consider participating in another dunk contest can be viewed as his feeling comfortably entrenched as an NBA player. The on the court product should improve as a result

by HQ Interloper on Feb 16, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s a pretty good analogy. I’d have to agree, as much as his scoring has been lacking, i’d still hate to lose his overall skills right now, especially since we’ve been playing so well both with him and now without him. I don’t know what the locker room chemistry is like but i’d see him as someone who would get along.

by dchoubak on Feb 16, 2010 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

The thread analogy is nice one.

The reality is knowing that you have garbage as opposed to not knowing what you have is a bigger factor in my mind. Not that Turk is garbage but his play makes him expendable especially in light of his age. Gay may not sign here but if you are going to take a flyer on a rental, this is the year to do it with all the potential moves that are going to come this summer. Remember, teams are going to be looking for other teams to take on salary while they work on sign and trades for their FAs. Toronto doesn’t have to sign a FA because they may be able to get what they need in one of those type of deals.
As for people worried about trading away a potential superstar, stop worrying. DD will never be a Michael Jordan, and though he may be a solid starter one day, its a crap shoot. SG is position that shouldn’t take that long to develop and if he ends up not being nothing more than a 7th man off the bench, you will wish you had made the move for Gay.

by McGateway on Feb 16, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

i would not trade denar at ne cost we goota have faith i think he can live up to potential id give bellineli and hedo for gay and caroll

by raptors_run_the_show on Feb 16, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

RE:Hedo

I would have be of the midset that I would always pull the thread out if it was possible. Even if you ended up ruining the pants, they didn’t look very good with the thread sticking out. To date the team hasn’t really seemed to struggle when Hedo is not in the lineup, so if there is any way to drop him, I would pull the trigger. However, I do still beleive that when the playoffs get here, you will see a more integral and energized Hedo… After all he is still getting over “mono”, and it was Valentine’s Day on the weekend so he’ll probably be out tired until the playoffs anyway.

by PNUTZ on Feb 16, 2010 11:39 AM EST reply actions  

Mono?

Hedo had the kissing disease? Busy Valentine’s Day week for him?

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Feb 16, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Just a bad joke...

It was the only explanation I could come up with for a professional athlete missing training camp because he was fatigued.

by PNUTZ on Feb 16, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

mono?

are you talking thesame aiment that plagued Roger Federer?

by Scores on Feb 16, 2010 11:52 AM EST reply actions  

Lets see what this team do

I think we have got to keep what we got and see what happens.
Call it winning ugly or what but fact is for the last 25-30 games we are as hot as any team in the league, and arguably a better upside than just about all.

Take a gamble Brian, and sit this one out. Expect a more comfortable Hedo(who I see the knives are back out for) handling the ball more and a motivated DeRozan upping his game down this homestretch.

Regarding your trade proposal? Rudy Gay? Giving up Hedo and DeRozan? Grizzlies might just get the two better players and next season we have squat! Just how bad do you dislike Hedo anyways?
Call Riley. Hedo and Demar for DWade. To give up what you are offering we gotta get something back.
By the way, here is my gut feeling. DWade will sign in Toronto next season.

by Tinmann on Feb 16, 2010 1:51 PM EST reply actions  

I don’t think the knives have really gone away for Hedo. Or maybe I missed something?!?

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Feb 16, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Hedo and Demar for DWade?

Ridiculous. Although, maybe we Cleveland will agree to a Lebron for Patrick O’Bryant swap instead…

The Eternal Pessimist...

by shrubz on Feb 16, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d be interested in hearing why your gut tells you Wade is coming to Toronto.

by Posterized on Feb 17, 2010 2:57 AM EST up reply actions  

No trades please

The Raptors have been improving these last few months due to internal development and increased cohesion(and a better schedule). I’d wager that continued development over the remainder of the season will do the team more good come playoff time than making a move now(unless LA is offering Kobe for Hedo, of course).

Personally, I would not involve DeRozan in any deal where the guy I was getting back was not signed for at least a couple more years.

To paraphrase Sports Illustrated: if Memphis is offering Rudy Gay for Hedo Turkoglu then Toronto would take that in a second. They might even throw in Marcus Banks to sweeten the pot.

by DW19 on Feb 16, 2010 2:17 PM EST reply actions  

Unfortunately, you won’t get the benefit of a “better schedule” in the playoffs. The Raptors will most likely face a higher seed with home court advantage. And their inability to beat those teams on the road will be exposed as they get bounced in the first round.

This team is in need of a trade. Not a huge, earth-shattering blockbuster, but a deal that will address the wings heading into the postseason. DeRozan might be the answer two seasons from now, but he is not the answer right now.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Feb 16, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed, People need to stop treating every Raptor player like they are potential all-stars. Derozan might, that is MIGHT be good one day but the Raptors clearly need help on the wing. As everyone has pretty much scratched trading Calderon and his crappy contract for help, DD makes the most sense to move. DD and POB expiring for Rudy Gay works financially. Raptors can throw in a future (2 years from now as Toronto will lost their 1st round pick this year and per NBA rules must keep next years pick) 1st round pick could get it done. It really depends on how much the Grizzlies believe Gay will cost and whether it is worth that cost to keep him.

by McGateway on Feb 16, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think it’s necessarily treating every player like they are a potential all-star, more like missing out on a promising, cost-effective opportunity because you wanted the short term pay-off of a second round appearance. Think of Celtics trading Joe Johnson for Tony Delk a few years back. If DeRozan were given the lead role responsibilities of other members of his draft class, what kind of numbers might he be putting up? As fans, we can’t make a fair assessment of his talent either way, so who knows how tradeable he is right now. If this team wants to be more than a middling playoff participant, they have to realize a lot of value out of some of their cheap home-grown assets while they are still cheap. Trading away those assets prematurely doesn’t make sense.

by HQ Interloper on Feb 16, 2010 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

It really depends on the reality of the situation. Say for example that Memphis was actually interested in doing a deal (though line: Better to get a player who projects to another Gay then lose him for nothing). Can you imagine if it got out the Raptors shot down the deal and then got bounced in the first round? We might see another Viral Video like Kobes.
The other side of it is that you can look at the Courtney Lee trade last offseason. Even though Vince hasn’t played well, Lee has been a disaster in NJ.

by McGateway on Feb 16, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Not sure I was very clear

What I am saying is that Toronto may get as much improvement out of internal development as they would from making a trade, unless the trade was really lopsided. Even if Toronto’s players are not as good as _pick your favourite replacement_ they have started to develop chemistry and should continue to improve as the season wraps up. Making a trade could end up hitting the reset button on the team chemistry for a marginal upgrade in talent with a net result of no real improvement.

As far as trading for Rudy Gay, the problem is not his talent level. The problem is that his contract is expiring and the Raptors have to be confident that they can re-sign him otherwise they are giving away DeRozan(or whoever) for nothing. The cap space that the Raptors would get if they lost RG would be minimal and certainly not enough for an adequate replacement.

BTW, the SI comment was intended as a joke. I think Gay is as good as or better than Hedo right now. He is also younger, a better defender and a better athlete. Of course he has less playmaking and playoff experience.

by DW19 on Feb 16, 2010 5:50 PM EST up reply actions  

The issue of Gay leaving is a possibility (probably a strong one) but isn’t it worth the gamble? Remember the main issue here is convincing that the team has potential down the road. If Gay leaves, there will be other player possibilities in FA and by keeping the trade to DD and another low salary player, the teams core remains intact.

by McGateway on Feb 16, 2010 10:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Disagree

SI is wrong again.

Please note I stated I was against Turk and DeRozan for Gay.

Turk straight up? Hmm, still think I keep Turk. Him and Jack will work out fine..

by Tinmann on Feb 16, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Turk cannot be involved in a trade for Gay as Gay makes 3.5 Mil per season. The Grizzlies would have to include a bunch of contracts to make that work.

by McGateway on Feb 16, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Since you said it...

Markus Banks for Rudy Gay + filler…..

by renato on Feb 16, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I was thinking more what I posted above. Gay for a potentially future Gay (DD) plus expiring contract (POB) and a future 1st round pick and cash. I highly doubt any other deal would work without dismantling one of the teams (maybe working a Belinelli or Weems/Johnson into the deal might work and we would then take back a crap contract of some sort something like:
D. Carrol and Gay for Johnson, POB and DD it works in the trade machine.

by McGateway on Feb 16, 2010 4:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Forgot to include Jason Kaponos Trade exception.

by McGateway on Feb 16, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Gay might be a rental

Not to be like the hysterical ESPN guys, but why would Gay stay with the Raptors after this season? He doesn’t have any roots in Toronto like Bosh does and he is going to be wined and dined by all the teams that miss out on Bosh, LeBron, DWade. Maybe I am missing the fact that he is a restricted free agent or something. It just seems to be that giving away DeRozan for a guy who might leave town in a few months could be counter-productive.

by DW19 on Feb 16, 2010 5:59 PM EST up reply actions  

jc for gay

how about calderon for gay and conley…numbers work…we get a good wing and back up pg, they get a real pg to who has experience working with gasol

by artificialturk on Feb 16, 2010 6:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Was just goin to say gay doesn’t even make close to as much as turk..so trading turk AND derozan for gay would never work memphis would have to throw in more assets for it to even go through..maybe throw in oj mayo and now were talking lol

by sherwin316 on Feb 16, 2010 3:55 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

HA! Dirk better than Chris!!

Group C: “It Makes Us Angry That You’d Even Ask”

12. Chris Bosh
11. Dirk Nowitzki
Dirk was headed for the finest season of his career until Carl Landry mistakenly tried to eat his right elbow. He hasn’t fully bounced back yet. Neither have the Mavs. As for Bosh, I hate All-Star Games because nobody tries for three quarters and the game rarely reaches even 40 percent of its potential. Still, it’s a must-watch because the cream of the under-30 crop reveals itself in crunch time, and this year, Bosh was the best power forward or center in that game. Period. He has even handled the fact that everyone in America has made the “Wait, he looks like one of the leads in ‘Avatar’!” joke at least once nicely. Still, if Dallas called Toronto and said, “We’ll take Bosh off your hands for Dirk, this way you won’t lose him for nothing this summer,” Toronto grabs that offer in a heartbeat … right?

by BargsBust on Feb 16, 2010 3:57 PM EST reply actions  

just read this too

Bosh is easily in the top 3 for PFs in the league and 6 years younger than Dirk. Don’t understand how Dirk, D. Williams and D. Rose can be rated higher than CB4.

…Simmons is a pretty smart guy and usually knows what he’s talking about but, really?

The Eternal Pessimist...

by shrubz on Feb 16, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

If you read the entire article, he explains his position in the next post about the guards. Guards are more valuable in this day and age of anti-hand check rules. It is one of the main reasons so many people believe that Bosh could never be a franchise player. As good as he is, he does not generate the offense like, Rose and Williams do. You cannot underestimate the value of a player who can create their own shot. Whether you agree with that argument or not, that is the position he has taken. As for Dirk, Dirk has been to a final and is one of the best PFs in the game today. You can Ying and Yang Dirk and Bosh but you have to give the slight edge to Dirk just because he is the more accomplished player. Bosh may end up being better as his career goes on but Dirk right now does have a slight edge.

by McGateway on Feb 16, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Another Trade that works and might make some sense (especially if Suns trade Amare).

Banks and POB for Barbosa. Banks contract ends at the same time as Barbosa’s but is over 2 million less. POB expires at the end of the season and the Suns could buy him out right away and waive him, saving money. If the suns were to take on Iggy and Dalembert, this trade makes even more sense.

by McGateway on Feb 16, 2010 5:10 PM EST reply actions  

No, no, no... God please NO!

Franchise, Mike Dunleavy is a terrible Basketball player who has no upside. He has actually regressed considerably for three straight seasons. He makes $10 mil per seaseon, is averaging 11 pts per game shooting 40% from the field and 30% from behind the arc, doesn’t play defense or rebound. Why-Oh-why would we ever consider adding him to our team?

by MAS11 on Feb 16, 2010 5:45 PM EST reply actions  

One more thing. No matter how much we swing around emotionally for our team, we can all thank the basketball gods that we are not Bobcat fans. How do you think they feel right now.?

by McGateway on Feb 17, 2010 6:35 AM EST reply actions  

Hedo for Gay

Cmon are you seriously suggesting anyone in their right mind would have interest in Hedo Turkoglu? He has one of the most untradeable contracts in the NBA.

Look at his production, would you pay him 10+ million for the next 4 seasons?

We should jus look forward to his final season where he will be a valuable expiring contract.

Im an idiot... but so are you

by xclusuf on Feb 17, 2010 8:58 AM EST reply actions  

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