3 in the Key - Raptors' Game-Day Preview vs. Rockets

by Adam Francis on Dec 31, 2010 9:10 AM EST in 3 in the Key

The Toronto Raptors look to duplicate the success of their big win over the Dallas Mavericks tonight against the Houston Rockets.

According to ESPN's accuscore predictor, the Raptors have only a 23% chance of winning tonight's match against the Rockets.

Of course, the odds were even worse than that Tuesday night vs. the Mavs, and we know how that turned out.

The undermanned Raps took it to the Mavs in a surprising win, and certainly will be looking to build on that this evening with another surprising win.

Surprising?

Well although Toronto has already beaten Houston this season, 106 to 96 back in November, the Rockets weren't exactly at full strength. Now however, the team has its core back (minus Yao Ming of course) and despite a loss Wednesday night to Miami, have won five of their last six and are slowly crawling back towards playoff contention in the West.

Even in the loss to Miami the Rockets looked pretty sharp.

They scored more points against the Heat than any other opponent has this young NBA season, and kept it close up until the final buzzer.

Considering Toronto looks to be quite short-handed yet again tonight, this New Year's Eve match-up looks to be yet another tough test for the Dinos.

Here are our game-day 3 keys:

1) Team effort. This was one of the most impressive things about Tuesday's win over the Mavericks. There may have only been 7 guys playing, but every one of them made major contributions in the win. Calderon apparently is likely to play this evening, but considering that Andrea Bargnani is out for sure, Jerryd Bayless and Sonny Weems are day-to-day, and Leandro Barbosa and Amir Johnson are game-time decisions at this point, Toronto is going to need another big team effort this evening and we may even see Ronald Dupree and Solomon Alabi pressed into key minutes. The Rockets don't rely on just one player to do their damage so the Raps need to counter with their best complete effort as well.

2) Defence. This key is one that we could probably use for every game but it's a point that's usually quite moot. The Raps just aren't even a mediocre defensive team and...

...wait...

They held the Mavericks to 41% shooting?

Yes, after seeing the defensive work by the Dinos against Dallas it's obvious that this team can play D, and good D at that, but for various reasons it rarely seems to happen. It has to tonight as the Rockets are averaging nearly 106 points a game on offence, a good 6 points more than the traditionally "offensive-minded" Raps! This isn't going to be a game then that Toronto can just shoot itself out of, especially minus top scoring threats like Bargnani, so the club will need to get stops in order to have a chance to win.

3) Paint play. No, not the type you did in kindergarten. Toronto had a distinct advantage in their match against Dallas because sans Dirk, the Mavs had very little presence down low, and were forced to settle for a great number of jump shots.

The Rockets have lots of options in the paint, including stud Luis Scola, and also have players like Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin who excel at getting to the hoop and the free throw line. Toronto's therefore got to ensure Scola faces some resistance down low (maybe Joey Dorsey wants a little revenge on his old club) and the Raps' perimeter D needs to be as tight as possible as well to prevent forays to the hoop.

In addition, while Houston isn't a great rebounding club (they sit about middle of the league in rebounding rate), the Raps can't afford to give the Rockets many second opportunities considering the way Houston's offence is humming right now.

This one might be decided on the strength of available talent, but I think when all is said and done, the story in the paint will be the game's determining factor.

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Defense

I have seen the game with the Mavs, and with the game moving forward, besides praising the effort on display by the guys in red, I was holding my breath in each of one of those long 2 and 3 Dallas was bricking over and over. Where do you draw the line between a great defensive effort that everybody seem to be praising and an off night from the Mavericks’s otherwise sharp shooters? A few of those bombs going in would have changed the whole game dynamic with the Dinos not being able to just pack the house and go for the boards . My question (question as I don’t know, I am asking you as you looked deeper into the issue) for the stat junkies is there a metric (maybe a set of metrics) that lets you measure the defensive contribution to an off night of the opposing offense?

by renato on Dec 31, 2010 9:35 AM EST reply actions

Ultimately though that is the idea. Long bombs are lower percentage shots even when players are wide open, let alone when there is a body on them contesting the shot. Sure the Mavs could have gotten lucky and hit those shots but again that is the point, they would have had to get lucky. Good D forces the other team to put up long shots while weak D opens up much higher percentage shots (like lay ups).

by McGateway on Dec 31, 2010 9:43 AM EST up reply actions

we did it against Orlando last year

and they buried us under a rain of 3s and that was the example of a bad D, while we were doing exactly the same

by renato on Dec 31, 2010 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

Exactly McGateway

I’ll second that. If Dallas takes and makes contested jumpshots all night, more power to them. You have to play the percentages, and outside jumpshots (especially contested ones) are low (or at least lower) percentage than waltzing straight to the rim and laying it up. That is (or should be) the way you play good defense. The raptors did a good job of recovering against drives, helping and forcing a lot of Dallas’ offence to the perimeter. A lot of credit should go to Julian Wright, who was a madman out there and intelligently switched when necessary and on one possesion guarded almost the entire opposing squad. A lot of credit also has to go to the Raptors bigs who played great help defense, intimidated in the paint (Davis 3 blocks!) and rebounded. It’s amazing what happens when your bigs play like bigs. The whole game changs and defence for the entire team becomes easier.

by MAS11 on Dec 31, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

The Dallas game

Mavericks shot .227 from the perimeter – well below their .359 average (at the time). You can call that lucky, or unlucky, depending on perspectives. But the fact is – Dallas had a off-shooting night. And without Dirk, they couldn’t compensate for it (with any interior presence). As I’ve said in a few posts before, all the ducks lined up for that game – and Raps took advantage.
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But yes, kudos to a total team effort. Defensive effort is/has been an issue with Toronto for far too many games. Not so much ability, but EFFORT. The Dallas game also features a break-out type of game for Davis – and that was the most positive sign from the game …. IMO.
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by RapthoseLeafs on Dec 31, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

Yup, exactly what I said. Raps forced them to a perimeter game and therefor played the percentages properly. And yes great effort, which is not a surprise considering the players that played.

by MAS11 on Dec 31, 2010 7:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Joey Dorsey has been playing pretty well of late. A couple of games ago, he had a double-double and he is not exactly known for his scoring. Even in University of Memphis he was not that great a scorer. The pickings are getting pretty slim for the Raptors. With bayless and Barbosa down, who will back up Jose Calderon. Ronald dupree isn’t anyone special and I do not think Solomon Alabi has even played a game. Hopefully the Raptors will have a game like they did against Dallas.

by Jeffrey Thompson on Dec 31, 2010 11:09 AM EST reply actions

Solomon Alabi played a game from before.

by ZM15 on Dec 31, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions

Chuck Hayes is OUT

Their best defender is out, so we need to give the ball to guys like Davis and Johnson more.

by ZM15 on Dec 31, 2010 11:34 AM EST reply actions

Chuck Hayes is a very good at being in the right place like Reggie Evans. But at 6’6 he is very undersized and not a shot blocker. His absence is a good thing though. Shane Battier and Kyle Lowry are their best defenders. Their post defense is solid, but they lack shot blocking and size…

by JumpShootersRUS on Dec 31, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions

Their post defense is solid, but they lack shot blocking and size…

I was not talking about Lowry and Battier here, but rather the Rockets team in general.

by JumpShootersRUS on Dec 31, 2010 12:16 PM EST reply actions

Updates

Apparently Jose, Jerryd, Amir and Sonny were all in shoot around.

Sonny is out though, Amir is a go and both Jose & Bayless are game-time decisions.

Could be ugly if the Raps are missing both point guards.

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Dec 31, 2010 1:20 PM EST reply actions

This is where a third PG could be useful... Buuuuut we have Ronald Dupree... Um, yeah...

by MAS11 on Dec 31, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

No kidding.

Paging Bobby Brown, paging Bobby Brown…

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Dec 31, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

That's exactly who I was thinking about!

Someone get Bobby Brown a ticket to Houstan STAT!

by MAS11 on Dec 31, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

I am curious to see who Shane Battier guards tonight. He is their best defender and could probably handle just about anybody that the Raptors can throw out there from positions 2-5, given that we do not have a true center.

by JumpShootersRUS on Dec 31, 2010 1:29 PM EST reply actions

Barbosa is going to earn his money tonight…Hopefully, Julian Wright passes well again tonight to make up a little bit of what we lose with our lack of point guards..

by JumpShootersRUS on Dec 31, 2010 1:39 PM EST reply actions