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Ed Davis - the Next Jermaine O'Neal?

The Toronto Raptors may have struck lottery gold with rookie Ed Davis...

Toronto's impressive victory Wednesday night over the Dallas Mavericks was possible thanks in part to a huge game from rookie Ed Davis.  The HQ takes a quick look at Davis, who could end up being one of the steals of the 2010 NBA Draft.

Star-divide

As we've seen over the years, sometimes as an NBA franchise, you just need a little luck.

This is especially true with respect to the draft.

There are countless examples of teams lucking into an eventual franchise player or All-Star with their draft selection for a myriad of reasons; health (Danny Granger's free fall in 2005 comes to mind), attitude (Caron Butler dropping to 10th in 2002) or other teams simply over-estimating talent (Detroit taking Darko Milicic over Carmello Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.)

Sometimes you can do all the scouting in the world and it doesn't mean a thing.  If the player you want is not available when you're picking for one reason or another, you've got to quickly move to plan B.

However sometimes the inverse is true, and a player you assumed would be long gone by the time your picked is still on the board.

This was the case last year for the Toronto Raptors.

All set to take Paul George, my personal favourite of the class as well, the Raps watched Utah alter the predicted draft order by grabbing Gordan Hayward with the 9th pick, and suddenly none of TO's top options (George, Henry, Udoh and Aldrich) were around at the 13th spot.

However all the change above them meant someone predicted to go higher was falling, and in this case, said player was North Carolina forward/center Ed Davis.

The Raps couldn't have been more pleased, and already this season in 14 games of action, you can see why.

Davis has an immediate impact when he enters the game, using his length and nose for the ball to rebound and block shots, and while not a great shooter from outside of about 8 feet, he excels at finishing in traffic and doing many of the "little things" that most rookies struggle with.

In fact, his career-high night against the Mavs on Wednesday again prompted another round of "Davis could be the next Jermaine O'Neal!"

It's not hard to see similarities for sure, so I figured I'd take a quick look at both's rookie seasons, using per 36 minute averages to try and flatten out the metrics.  Here were the results as per basketballreference.com:

Right away you can see the similarities in their defensive numbers as both would have grabbed an projected 10 rebounds per 36, and blocked close to 2 shots.

On offence Davis was a much more efficient option, but didn't take as many shots or score as much, and struggled from the line like O'Neal.

It would be great to be able to compare the non (per 36) numbers but O'Neal played only about 600 minutes on average though in his first four seasons glued to Portland's bench.  To put things in perspective, Davis is on pace to play over 1600 minutes this season alone.

As well, O'Neal was a "fresh out of high school 18 year old" in his rookie season, whereas Davis is already 21.  

However O'Neal's numbers overall at 21 were pretty much the same as his rookie campaign, so I don't think it's too much of a stretch to compare both per 36.  And even in this admittedly basic statistical compare, the similarities are definitely present.

A look at some of their advanced metrics, again via Basketball Reference.com, backs this up as both have nearly identical numbers for things like PER, total rebounding percentage, assist percentage and a very similar block percentage score.

As with the per 36 numbers though, Davis comes out on top in terms of effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage, as well as percentage of steals and posting a lower turnover rate.  And interestingly, while Davis is on pace to play a lot more minutes than O'Neal, O'Neal posted a much higher usage rate in his rookie season. (21% versus 13% for Davis.)

Of course if Davis gets playing time like he has over the past week, that stat could even out as well.

The bottom line for me really is that Davis looks to be the real deal as a prospect, something I couldn't say in the summer.  He never stood out much to me North Carolina, missed a lot of time due to injury of course, and didn't really open any eyes until the last couple games of Summer League in Vegas.  When I saw him in person, his shot looked like it needed some major work, he got pushed around in the paint by bigger players, and with narrow shoulders, I wasn't sure he'd be able to bulk up much.

Those issues are still present to a great extent, but his other attributes have helped minimize those issues, and most are things he'll be able to put time in on this coming summer.

So will Ed Davis be the next Jermaine O'Neal?

That's probably up to Davis in terms of how much work he puts in early in his career but it's quite possible that he becomes a version 2.0 when all is said and done.  He's already a very similar defensive player as a rookie, but has a more polished touch on O.  Draftexpress.com actually put his "upside" as Al Horford, but I think O'Neal is a much more apt comparison.  Davis doesn't have Horford's face-up game or bulk down low and I'm not sure that will ever be his forte.

O'Neal, Horford or PJ Brown (another player he drew comparisons to at college), it doesn't matter.  

Considering past 13th picks have yielded players like Marcus Haislip, Sean May and Marcus Banks, and with no real standouts from the 2010 rookie crop aside from John Wall and Landry Fields so far this season, Raptors' fans should be thrilled to be on the other side of a Danny Granger situation for once.

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Or at least, “potentially” on the other side of the Granger situation

by Jdbar9393 on Dec 30, 2010 10:30 AM EST reply actions  

Probably the best pick TO has had for some time

He just gives the appearance of a real good player but with consistancy. And that I think will be what sets him out from Derozen and Weems. Consistant.
The down side for him will be if the idea is to have him play the center spot. Just not big enough. 6-10 and 230 , so he puts on another 30 pounds ,,still pretty light weight for the big boys. I think he can do the job that Horace Grant did for the Bulls in those championship years at power forward.

by raptball on Dec 30, 2010 10:54 AM EST reply actions  

ED is the probably the first real steal the Raps have had since Mighty Mouse in the 95 draft. Still not sure how he drops behind Cole Aldrich or even Greg Monroe?!

Speaking of Cole.. in other random notes:

Cole’s got strike two as he’s been sent back to the D. You’re only allowed three in a season.

KG – in the guise of Nelson Muntz.. Ha-Ha.

Marcin Gortat doesn’t feel Phoenix knows how to play defence. Really?? Wow. “It’s just a little bit frustrating when you come in the locker room and people are talking about the offense,” Gortat

How do you send Odom back to the bench?!? 15.6, 9.8 rebounds @ 57.4%

More love for Artest. He auctioned off his 09-10 championship ring for charity raffle. His only stipulation was that he got to keep the box after. The winner got it for $100. Has anyone ever gone from bad guy to good in such a short period of time? I still don’t qualify Michael Vick as a “good” guy.

by Ustation on Dec 30, 2010 10:58 AM EST reply actions  

Still like Cole…just don’t know if he’s a good fit with OKC at this point.

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Dec 30, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

That shot of his (Cole) is way too funky, and his footwork ain’t great either combined with his “speed” it’s not looking good. Great for the college game, but not so sure about the ’A.

by Ustation on Dec 30, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Talk about the future

Starters vs Dallas
Kleiza – 25
Johnson – 23
Dorsey – 26
DeRozan – 21 (6/10 jump shots) unlimited potential, 14.4 ppg for DEC
Bayless – 22
bench
Davis 21 (14th NBA game) a defensive player (3stls/3blks) -unlimited potential
Wright – 23
Barbosa – 28 ( the old man)

by Johnn19 on Dec 30, 2010 11:02 AM EST reply actions  

To be another JO

he needs to bulk up , get a back to the basket game and develop a shoot. He’s very young tho, he’ll have time to work on it.
Even more interesting, falling at 13 means he’ll be earning close to peanuts for several years.

BTW, how is Paul George doing?

by renato on Dec 30, 2010 11:17 AM EST reply actions  

Jermaine O’Neal probably should’ve developed a shot himself, considering a career 0.465 from the field is pretty weak for a seven-footer. In 16 seasons in the NBA, JO only topped Davis’ current 0.522 FG% one time (last year with Miami).

If Ed Davis is going to be the next JO, I’d like to see him described as a “better shooting version of JO”.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Dec 30, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Yes agreed.

JO was not as effecient as everyone would have liked but he did play both ends of the floor and was pretty solid defensively, especially in his prime. If you look back at the tapes, O’Neil and Davis have pretty much the same body type and defensive instincts/shot blocking instincts. I’m hoping that Davis can develop this part of his game, anything on offense is gravy.

by MAS11 on Dec 30, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

JO was a bit of a chucker, especially in Indiana. I think he always played a bit outside of his abilities on offence, but if Davis can replicate the other parts of JO’s game, and stay healthy…

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Dec 30, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

O'Neil

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Although it was only 6 games worth of play-offs (02-03), Jermaine went 22.8 (pts.) 17.5 (Rebs) 3.0 (Blk). Those are pretty strong numbers.
Heavy minutes though, but buffered by only 15 shots, to go with 8.5 FTpts (on 10.8 attempts).
.
JO was 20-10 like Bosh, but tougher …. in a span of 6 years. Add 46 play-off games. Of course Bosh is on his way there, next up …. that 12th game.
.

by RapthoseLeafs on Dec 30, 2010 9:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Ed Davis was my “best case scenario” pick and couldn’t believe it when he fell. And I think Golden State picking Udoh was the first domino to fall that dropped Davis in the Raptor’s lap. He went WAY too high.

The big difference between O’Neal and Davis is that O’Neal didn’t have Davis’ basketball IQ coming into the league. They were both raw offensively, but Davis sees the floor better, knows where to go and what to do on both ends of the court, and has had more of an impact immediately than O’Neal did. Obviously O’Neal came straight out of high school, which certainly was a big reason for the difference.

And notice that on my wish list Paul George was second, so you guys aren’t alone, there. He’s only 20, so I still think he’s got a good chance to become the player I thought he might. Still, the Raptors definitely lucked out with Davis. I had him as the 5th best player in the draft. Getting him at 13th is a huge steal.

by Tim W. on Dec 30, 2010 12:15 PM EST reply actions  

Does anybody think that Ed Davis will get a tripple-double this season?

It’s a long shot… but outside of Bayless, I just don’t see any other Raptor being able to come close (maybe Amir)…

by Jenge on Dec 30, 2010 2:11 PM EST reply actions  

Ed Davis get a triple-double? Probably not. I could see him racking up a bunch of double-doubles, assuming he gets the playing time. But the 10 blocks would be hard to come by.

Bayless might get there, assuming he could get the double digit boards.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Dec 30, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

A guard is more likely to get lucky and get 10 rebounds. 10 blocks is ridiculous. I do not think it has ever been done by someone in a Raptors uniform.

by JumpShootersRUS on Dec 30, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I remember someone a few years ago got credited with like 12 blocks or something in a game (I think they tied a NBA record). Dont remember who but I remember it happening.

by McGateway on Dec 31, 2010 9:35 AM EST up reply actions  

It was Keon Clark – 12 vs Atlanta Hawks in 2001.

by McGateway on Dec 31, 2010 9:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Not with the minutes he’s currently getting.. not that I think he should get more mins.

by Ustation on Dec 30, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Davis is good

I was very excited when we got him in the draft but its hard to tell how players will adjust to the pros. One positive aspect of Ed’s upbringing is that his father was a pro and that might help. He grew up always wanting to play Bball and he has talent.

Davis is one of the pleasant surprises, no pleasant realities of this years team.

Keep playing Andrea and Jose and get their stats up…so we can use them effectively in a couple of trade scenarios. I have always supported Andrea, but it’s more to develop him as a tradeable asset, not because I can ignore his defensive liability. He would fit better in Phoenix or Golden State than he does in Toronto. But we gotta get something good back and the better his stats, the better trade we can expect to be able to make.

Triple doubles; there is no one on the team that is likely to get one this year. That’s the guy we are currently missing. We need a bonafide all star to lead the team…the role players are already on the roster. A trade exception, Peja, Jose and Andrea should be able to give BC some room to make an amazing trade. Too bad Nash isn’t 27.

Go Raps

by defensive rap on Dec 30, 2010 5:18 PM EST reply actions  

I seriously doubt Andrea gets traded. I would not be against it. GMs should be willing to deal basically anyone if the right offer comes along. However, BC seems to love Bargs too much to deal him.

by JumpShootersRUS on Dec 30, 2010 10:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Davis Amir & Bargnani

I think this trio could be a nice combination, if managed properly. Both Davis & Amir have better (or potentially better) defense than AB – not much of a revelation, I know. In the right combination though, and depending who’s on the floor, this group could average 32 minutes apiece (or close enough to being equal).

Of course, injuries will adjust for a 4th Big (and maybe a 5th who doesn’t mind playing much – Where is PB these days?). Fouls could hamper AJ’s minutes, but for the most part, these 3 guys could be the basis for a decent Front Court.
.
In a Front Court combination of Davis & Bargs, Ed would be the more mobile, while AB posts up. Or Andrea could pull his Big out, so Davis can make a move in. This could be a developmental thing between these two, while Raptors fill in their “team”. As Davis improves his long range (and defenses adjust for this), Andrea can spend more time posting up, encountering less resistance.

For the situation as it was with Evans, and his penchant for quality long range shooting, it wasn’t hard for Defenders to realize it was okay to migrate more towards Bargnani.
.
With Amir, Bargs can hang out more often near the perimeter, and give our limp 3pt shooting a boost. Not too much though. On defense, Amir would combine his blocking abilities with Bargnani (off somewhat this year), as well as be the more agile defender. This would have to be the time (within a game) that Andrea needs to make a greater sacrifice for defense. Unlike when he’s with Davis, who I believe will be an even better defender than Amir.
.
Johnson & Davis would obviously be the more lock down combination (amongst these 3 defenders), more in the paint scorers, with decent bursts of such scoring, and greater opportunity for the Wings and long range shooters to make their mark.
.
When Bargs is on the floor, you add a greater dose of SF-like Wrights (or guards with same mentality). In essence, it’s all about balance. With Amir/Davis combo, you have the ability to add a Kapono-type wing ….. yikes, did I just say his name. Fact is, a true R.O.I. Kapono would be perfect with this particular Big combination.
.
In 2011-12 .. these 3 Bigs will make 16.5 million … just slightly above Mr. CB’s 2011-12 future pay stub. Add the 4th & 5th Bigs to Toronto payroll, and you have JO’s one season Toronto salary. Spending 20 mil (or less) on the Front Court, gives a lot of room to fill in the 1 to 3 ….. 40-50 million. More – if as I believe – Toronto (Canada) needs to be in luxury tax land (if it still exists), to find that elusive star. We can get them, and keep them, if Raps handle the next couple years well. We have a pretty decent Bench. Just need to find someone from the draft/free-agent/trade routes, and/or have someone current – really shine – and we could have a pretty decent team. That might even mean absorbing a 2011-12 (or even 12-13) Expiring, that shouts out “stupid contract – wtf”. Those tend to be the ones where BC can find his little gems stuck in the rear end of that big ass contract.
.
Balance may be a law of physics, and alive in relationships, but it also has importance in sports.
.

by RapthoseLeafs on Dec 30, 2010 11:43 PM EST reply actions  

yep, great points

But the key still seems to be to have three things happen to win a championship

1. We need a star centre to add to that group. Howard would be perfect but impossible. I dream of Alabi being more than he is but, this piece will be hardest to find. With a Tyson Chandler, this front court you described would be formidable even for the Celts and Lakers. But we still need that defensive monster.

2. We need to add a star PG Jose is a no go for this role because of his D, and Bayless has a slim chance to develop the offensive sense needed. Both can still be key pieces to win a championship in the next four years but are not go to guys. We need one of our guards to be that guy.

3. We need a lot of players to realize their potential, ie Bayless, Davis, Demar, Kleiza, Demar and so on

I guess we should probaly let Jose, Peja (duh?) go. Jose could be a solid backup PG on a championship team and I could argue he would sign a fair deal after his contract expires to stay with the team and I would be excited to have him in that role for the next six years. I said backup clearly right? Not sixth man. I have him playing behind the next PG for the Raps who will be…….Williams or Paul or…….? Somebody special

A special PG and a Tyson Chandler type centre, while only giving up Peja and the trade exception and we can start talking deepplayoff runs. If it happens quick you can keep Leandro too and maybe, (probably not) Reggie. Amir, Chandler, Andrea, Davis and Reggie sounds like a very tough and killer front court. It would be fun to see if you could move Andrea to the three spot on some matchups. Wouldn’t you love to see Andrea abuse Paul Pierce on the offensive end and be backup on the D by those guys?

Go Raps

by defensive rap on Dec 31, 2010 4:50 AM EST up reply actions  

you are countering those points

if you want the big C, you very likely do not need at least one of those three. Let’s pretend you sign Chandler or DAlembert, do you need Davis + Amir? (as it is today you would still need Andrea as Dalembert and Chandler cannot score. Of course it changes if Davis and/or Amir become more offensive minded)

by renato on Dec 31, 2010 6:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Davis was an excellent pick

He’s posting the 5th best PER among rookies, and in my analysis of picks 11-20 of the 2010 NBA Draft he’s contributed as much as any of the others to his team. He and Derrick Favors are the only qualifying rookies in the top 20 picks to post positive Offensive/Defensive Rating differentials.

by mbmorganjr on Dec 31, 2010 8:05 AM EST reply actions  

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