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Weems vs DeRozan - Who Has the Higher Upside?

A discussion in one of the HQ's live chats inspires a discussion on two of the Raptors' young wing prospects, Sonny Weems and DeMar DeRozan.

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The Toronto Raptors may have lost to the Miami Heat on Saturday night, but it marked the second-straight solid outing for their supposed 2-guard of the future, DeMar DeRozan.

DeRozan pumped in a career-high 26 points against the Magic on Friday night in Toronto's surprising win, and then on Saturday put up 21 in the loss to the Heat.

Already his scoring average has jumped from 9 to 14 points a game, and his assist-per-game mark has doubled, and most of his other metrics have increased as well.  Plus, his free-throw attempts have gone from 2.5 a game last season, to 5.2 this year, a huge jump and one that Raptors' fans have been craving.  We're still only talking about 10 games, but it's a promising sign of hopefully things to come, as the Dinos search for hope for the future, in a season that looked fairly devoid of it.

However DeRozan isn't the only "young one" that's been showing promise.

Sonny Weems has gotten more minutes of late, and found himself in the starting line-up the past two games thanks to an injury to Linas Kleiza.

Weems has increased his scoring average from about 8 to 13, his assists-per-game from 1.5 to 2.1, and has made jumps in other key metrics as well, most notably his shooting where he's hitting an incredible 52% of his shots from the field, and 33% from long-range after being a horrific 13% shooter last season.

In other words, the Raps have two young wings who are showing some nice promise early on this year, definitely an encouraging sign for the future.

But which of the two has the greater upside?

Great question, and one that was debated on Friday night's Raptors vs Magic live game thread.

At face value it would seem to be DeRozan.

He's been heralded as the 2 guard of the future by the Raptors after being their lottery selection a year ago.

However there's no question that Weems, that slightly more experienced NBA player, put together a better overall season last year and was eventually rewarded with a starting job.

I've always thought Weems was the one Toronto should put more focus on for various reasons; better basketball acumen, better overall athlete, better shooter, better defender, etc, etc.  But take a look at the advanced stats below from Basketballreference.com: 

 

      GM MP PER TSP% EFG% ORB DRB     AST%  STL BLK TOV USG Pts REB AST STL WP(48)

DD 87 1977 12.6 .551 .498   4.7    10.7      5.3    1.3   0.8   9.5   18.3  13.9 3.6 1.5 0.6 +.107

SW 90 1641 13.0 .534 .512   3.5    11.9      12.0 1.5   1.2  12.2 19.1  12.7 2.3 2.1 1.0 -.056

The two career to date have posted very similar numbers, with Sonny being a slightly better rebounder and defender, and not as good a scorer (but more effective shooter).  The one area that really stands out for me here is the AST% category, where Weems looks to be the superior facilitator by a wide margin.

However look at the final five columns, which are actual per game numbers for this year.  Aside from assists, DeRozan is out-pacing his young gunz counterpart.

As well, the wins produced per 48 min score (courtesy of NB'eh) does not have Toronto's last two games factored in, and I'm guessing due to DeRozan's overall numbers in those two, in particular his efficient shooting display Friday night, they too will be quite similar.

So what does this tell us?

At face value I'd say nothing aside from the fact that Toronto has two players with very similar talents and who have bright futures.

However I think the real point of this exercise should be not to compare the two, but to note that both are taking big steps in the right direction.  I may be a bit of a DeRozan cynic, but the bottom line for me is that both of these players need lots of minutes this season to show what they can do.

And let's keep playing them together!

The two have great chemistry (as we saw in Vegas specifically) and complement each other on the court.

If that means moving Kleiza to the bench I'm all for it and I'm hoping Jay has seen the light the past two games as well.

Again, this season is all about getting the right building blocks in place for the future, and as of now, both Weems and DeRozan look to be cementing their spots.

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Last season, I was firmly entrenched in the ‘Weems should be starting over DeRozan’ camp (and rightfully so). It was pretty tough to make the case that DeRozan deserved to start last season outside of the “he was picked 9th” logic.

This season, I think it’s a bit more of a grey area. I still like Weems over DeRozan. But I think the better move — especially after the last two games — is to get these guys on the floor together as much as possible. It might not make much of a difference in the win column, but it’s producing some exciting plays thanks to their great chemistry.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Nov 15, 2010 12:28 PM EST reply actions  

It certainly looks that way. But I don’t think contract status should dictate playing time; that’s one of the issues with the Raptors right now anyway!

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Nov 15, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed – love the way these two look for each other and think ideally they should be playing together as much as possible.

I still think Weems has more upside, regardless of his age (something I didn’t touch on here), but they’re both extremely hard workers and flickers of light at the end of the tunnel for the Raps.

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Nov 15, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions  

point is

can weems play the three? if not eventually you will have one sub in for the other. I do not see DD play the three, too small

by renato on Nov 15, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Weems is a guy that I would definitely like to see extended when the chance comes up. It seems like between the 2-3 spots there should be plenty of minutes for both Weems and DeRozan.

by DW19 on Nov 15, 2010 6:28 PM EST up reply actions  

As you know

I disagree with you strongly and it’s not even close. Derozan is a relative baby in the game. He’s only a year and a bit removed from high school ball and has already had far more memorable performances that Sonny Weems. I also don’t think Weems’ work ethic is anywhere close to Derozan’s. The kid just wants it so bad, you can see it in the way he plays that he wants to be great. Weems is still way too much of a chucker, me first type.

by HDave on Nov 15, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree. when i see derozan play, I see something special he plays like he wants it like he has always dreamt of this moment, his performances are just special. I think DD has all-star potential. weems is a great player don’t get me wrong but he is a solid NBA player nothing special he has not shown anything special that would suggest that he can take it up a notch but DD has shown that he is a special player. who has more potential it is DD by a country mile, who is a better player now I would say it is weems. Play weems at the 2 and DD at the 3

by raptors_run_the_show on Nov 15, 2010 11:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I was asking for a different reason

and it was in relation to put weems as a potential building block or not.

by renato on Nov 15, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Restricted. He is still on his first contract. His qualifying offer will be just over $1M.

by dhackett1565 on Nov 15, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

in such a case he is not even a gamble

it is like 0 downside unlimited upside…

by renato on Nov 15, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Weems has better defensive potential...

I’ve said before he would have a brilliant career if he strived to become the second coming of Scottie Pippen. I just don’t think it’s in him to not try to grab the spotlight whenever he can.

You’ve said a few times Franchise that you think Weems has the higher basketball IQ but I disagree. He may have a little more experience on his side but when it comes to being a student of the game and learning where he can improve, Demar is light years ahead. I think a smarter guy looks at where he can improve and works at it, like Demar does, rather than continually trying to force the things he already knows into every situation, like Mr. Weems.

In my books, they each have a higher ceiling than the other in different areas… Demar will be an offensive star and a decent defender and Weems could be a defensive stopper and a fine offensive threat.

If they both were to max out their potential, I would keep them paired up forever, Michael and Scottie / Stockton and Malone type career paths. I just have my doubts that Sonny will take the right steps.

by Mikthaniel on Nov 15, 2010 12:57 PM EST reply actions  

I think Weems has settled down since the start of the season when he was jacking some questionable shots. He seems to be a pretty smart distributor and his handles are still more reliable than DeRozan. One area where DeRozan seems to be getting better though is sneaking around the hoop and pouncing on offensive rebound opportunities. For me, that is a a very positive indication of his offensive instincts. Definitely, Weems is still a more solid defender, but DeRozan is improving there, too.

by DW19 on Nov 15, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I love when guards wander into the tall trees to steal offensive rebounds. It shows effort and IQ when players can fluidly slip between roles and good instincts when they catch the other team napping.

Rondo made a few highlight reels that way last playoffs.

by bigweeze on Nov 18, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Trending and projections

Franchise, regarding your thoughts on who will in the end be the better player and who has more potential/up-side, I ‘m not sure I’m aligned on this. Now let me know if I’m wrong on this one, but my perspective is that DeRozan’s improvement (so far – small sample size I know) year over year from last year is quite significant. It’s also not just the last few games, but before a few down games I though DeRozan played well against Sacramento and Utah and despite only scoring 14 points played well against Cleveland. As for Sonny Weems, he has, to me at least, looked very much like the same player we saw last year. It’s difficult to put stats to this, but to me it looks like DeRozan has improved quite significantly in some important areas, while Sonny has remained pretty static. Therefore, I would suggest the trend and projections would suggest DeRozan netting out as a better player.

Couple the above with the knowledge that DeRozan is three years younger, had less time at the collegiate and NBA level and has always been thought of as a good prospect by Collage scouts and NBA scouts alike (i.e. DeRozan being a consensus lottery picka and Weems not being selected in the first round), I find it difficult to see how DeRozan could be thought to have less potential than Weems. But interested to hear some counterpoints on this… as its great to be talking about the positive aspects of this roster. Oh and one thing i totally agree on is start them both and play them together as much as possible.

by MAS11 on Nov 15, 2010 2:38 PM EST reply actions  

Agree with you completely

Glad we could find something to agree on after our Bargs arguments. I completely agree. Derozan has improved by leaps and bounds from last season, and while Weems has to, it’s clear he is pretty close to his potential. Weems is a solid scorer and a good defender, but he just doesn’t have that instinctive scoring ability that Derozan does. I don’t even think it’s close, in fact.

by HDave on Nov 15, 2010 6:49 PM EST up reply actions  

totall agree, most scouting reports said derozan was a “high risk high reward” type player. I think hes leaning towards the high reward

by raptors_run_the_show on Nov 15, 2010 11:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Weems Vs. Derozan

I’m hoping weems can become an Ariza type of player and Derozan can become a Jason Richardson type of player. I think that would be very complimenting. Hopefully they remain in the starting lineup because its exciting. They give eachother confidence out there. Raps have been swagger-less until Florida. These two got the right attitude and feed off eachother. IMO, DeRozan is the better player, but a talent like weems is needed to be successful. Basically, we need both to reach their potential as soon as possible.

by MP22 on Nov 15, 2010 3:16 PM EST reply actions  

i too love this article

Love it..just the fact that were having a discussion bout 2 players at the wing position, who has the higher upside etc. Is refreshing and pretty cool specially when if their both playing well on the same night we get half of us here debating who’s the better player. I’m one of the ones that thinks derozan when all said and done will be the better player but also love the fact of both of them starting together. They just play so well on the court that even when klieza gets healthy I think its better he come off the bench. Now here’s a question..a lil too early to think bout this but just for fun..what if we get the number 1 pick, and we draft Barnes and resign weems this off season..do we keep both weems & derozan in the starting lineup or automatically have Barnes start?

by sherwin316 on Nov 15, 2010 3:49 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

What would these guys look like in Raptor Red?

http://www.realgm.com/src_checktrade.php?tradeid=5735679

Prospectively making us:

Jose, Demar, Sonny, Anderson Ink, Ed Davis

Barnes, Smith, Wright, Kleiza, Johnson

by Mikthaniel on Nov 15, 2010 3:51 PM EST reply actions  

ummm no thank to that trade

The birdman doesn’t give anything really different from what Reggie gives us now and Jr is way too much of a knuckle head to have on our young roster..I wouldn’t do the trade.

by sherwin316 on Nov 15, 2010 5:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Its Demar ahead on the turn

But they ain’t got to the stretch yet. Really though, Derozen has that edge in offensive side and offense is generally Batman’s forte while in this case Sonny is probably going to turn out to be one hell of a Robin. It’s so great to see the potential in both. Can’t wait to watch them battle the villians as they get better each time out

by raptball on Nov 15, 2010 5:46 PM EST reply actions  

Weems & Bargs

This is a very anecdotal comment(not based on crunching the numbers), but it seems to me that Bargnani and Weems play well together. You don’t see Bargnani pass the ball much, but when you do it seems like Weems and Amir Johnson are his two favourite targets. Also, Bargnani, like DeRozan, seems a little more aggressive when Weems is out there. It’s highly subjective, but that’s my take.

Coming into the season, I figured that best case starting line-up would Bargnani-Johnson-Weems-DeRozan-Jack. Not a world beating team by any means, but as long as you can put up with watching Bargnani it should be an exciting line-up. Props to Reggie for forcing his way into the starting rotation ahead of Amir. I’d now argue that Weems has forcefully stated his case to start ahead of Kleiza and Wright is looking pretty good as the first SF off the bench.

by DW19 on Nov 15, 2010 6:40 PM EST reply actions  

No to Weems vs. DeRozan polarization

Maybe I am imagining this, but it seems that Raptors fans often love to take a polarized view on things. For example, Ford vs. Calderon or Bargnani=Jesus/Satan. From my point of view, DeRozan and Weems can grow together and give the Raptors either a decent 1-2 punch at SG and/or a reliable wing combination. Given the current roster there is room for both and given their evident chemistry there is good reason to keep them together. I guess my point is that there is no need for this to turn this into another either/or showdown to the death, and I am very hopeful that it won’t. Peace all……

by DW19 on Nov 15, 2010 7:04 PM EST reply actions  

I’m starting to lean towards the “not an either/or thing” as well. I’d rather see Weems/DeRozan on the floor together than Jack/Calderon (and Triano seems to LOVE the latter combo despite evidence that they don’t perform well together).

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Nov 15, 2010 11:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Weems and Derozan get along well and play together well. I’d rather make every effort to see if we have something here. They are more suited to NBA perimeter play than any of our other players.

by bigweeze on Nov 18, 2010 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Lighten up guys

No one is saying you have to pick one or the other. The question is, who do you think has the higher upside. Have some fun with it.

Also, Jesus takes it to Bargs every single time. Andrea is a capable one on one defender, but Jesus has a lightning quick first step. Satan would resort to ball grabbing. ; )

by Posterized on Nov 16, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Nice Article

My pick is DD because of his size and length. I think their development has been neck and neck tho. I’d like to seem them both be the future of our wing position unless we draft a super star that plays SF or Sg.

Off topic for a moment, what do u guys think of this trade:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=27b5qfb

Thompson is on the blocks, Sac looking for some help at PG and tried to get Teague, Jack was rumoured to got to Philly for Young and Williams back in July & Raps looking for a center so Bargs can go to PF. Everyone wins.

by Member29 on Nov 15, 2010 11:15 PM EST reply actions  

Two trades, one good draft pick, and we are nice...

First…

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2btbuo2

Then…

http://www.realgm.com/src_checktrade.php?tradeid=5736027

Starters / Subs

Rubio / Jack

Derozan / Ellington / Draft Pick?

Weems / Wright

Evans / Bargnani / Dorsey

Johnson / Camby / Davis

by Mikthaniel on Nov 16, 2010 12:01 AM EST up reply actions  

So when he's tradeable in Dec....

we move Kleiza and Jack to, I don’t know, the Clippers for Baron Davis…

by Mikthaniel on Nov 16, 2010 12:19 AM EST up reply actions  

I could live with it...

Ricky Rubio / Baron Davis
Demar Derozan / Harrison Barnes
Sonny Weems / Julian Wright
Reggie Evans / Andrea Bargnani / Joey Dorsey
Amir Johnson / Marcus Camby / Ed Davis

by Mikthaniel on Nov 16, 2010 12:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Some old guys to mentor the young guys playing the same position, work on a backup PG for when Baron’s legs fall off and keep working on getting the most out of our depth at the 3, 4 and 5…

by Mikthaniel on Nov 16, 2010 12:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Um....

Did you just have a whole conversation with yourself?

by Posterized on Nov 16, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions  

It’s a shame Member29 made the first post of this comment thread. Or perhaps a blessing. Either way.

by dhackett1565 on Nov 16, 2010 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

lmao

I was thinking the same thing…

by HDave on Nov 16, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Weems has played less minutes...

Derozan has been on the court for 333 more minutes of NBA regular season game action during their careers.

by JumpShootersRUS on Nov 17, 2010 2:09 PM EST reply actions  

Weems is definitely older, but is also nearly as unpolished as Derozan.

I would say Weems has less downside than Derozan, is better right now, but possibly doesn’t have the peak. On an equal contract it’s a tough choice – I would probably risk it with Derozan, but if I already had a solid team I’d go with Weems.

by bigweeze on Nov 18, 2010 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

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