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3 in the Key - Game-Day Preview vs The Knicks

Here we go...opening night for the Toronto Raptors in the 2010-11 NBA Season as they take on the New York Knicks...

Star-divide

Last night the 2010-11 NBA season kicked off with much fanfare as the new "Super Friends" in Miami played their first game, Yao Ming returned to action, and the Lakers receiving their championship rings.

Tonight, things begin for real for the Toronto Raptors with much less fanfare and many less expectations.

They're expected to be a basement dweller by most, a team with middling talent that fails to win 30 games and while yesterday I tried to err on the optimistic side, the news last night that Leandro Barbosa, one of the teams top performers early on, will require wrist surgery at some point in the near future, doesn't bode well for us optimists.

That being said, the Raps have a great chance to get off on the right foot in their first two games of the season.

Toronto takes on New York in a sort of re-match of the teams' final pre-season game a week ago in Montreal, one that the Raptors walked away from victorious.  Then on Friday, they take on a LeBron-less Cavs squad at home.

I commented after the final pre-season game that I thought the "experts" were overrating the Knicks and I'm hoping the Dinos go out tonight and make me look good.

Here are our 3 keys on how to get the job done:

1)  Hit the glass - We saw this as a big key throughout pre-season in fact.  When Reggie Evans was pulling 12 or so boards down a game, an ensuring the ball was moving on offence instead of looking for his own offence, then the team looked pretty solid all things considered.  The Knicks aren't a great rebounding team by any stretch of the imagination so if Toronto can dominate this area, it should provide for a big advantage this evening.

2)  Forget Amare - There's no question Stoudemire is a bit of a man amongst boys down low on most nights, and tonight is probably no exception.  However I'm fine with Amar'e racking up 40 points as long as he's not getting other Knicks involved.  Players like Gallinari and rookie Landry Fields can stroke it from downtown and what I don't want to see tonight is a situation where Amar'e is drawing so much attention that the rest of the Knicks have open looks all evening around the perimeter.  Yes, try and keep Amar'e's damage to a minimum, but let's see that swarming perimeter D as well to prevent easy looks, something Mike Dantoni's teams thrive on.

3)  Starters playing like starters! - The most common theme fans saw in pre-season unfortunately was one where the Raps' first group of five got down by a significant amount on the scoreboard and the second unit would have to pull them back into the game.  This can't happen all season if Toronto wants to escape Nets' levels of losing so I'm looking for a good start tonight.  The re-insertion of Jarrett Jack into the starting line-up was supposed to help with this, but the onus is on all five starters, especially guys like Kleiza and Bargnani, to have immediate impacts once the ball goes up.  New York's bench is definitely not great, so perhaps this is a game Toronto can afford to lag a bit behind starter-wise but I'd rather not see the team get in the habit.  Let's get a solid effort at both ends right from the jump.

Raptors' basketball is back folks...enjoy the season...

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Looking ahead

Just looking at the schedule till the end of November and I would say we should be happy to come out of that part of the schedule with 7 wins and 10 losses but they need the win tonite and Friday as they appear to be realistic possibilities.

by raptball on Oct 27, 2010 8:53 AM EDT reply actions  

I don’t know about 7-10, but for sure tonight and Friday are key games if the team is going to get off to a good start this year.

by DW19 on Oct 27, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep, these two are biggies…thinking about rolling out a tool on the HQ that tracks Toronto’s record in “must-win” type games…aka ones like tonight that are available W’s on paper.

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Oct 27, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Barbosa

Very concerned about this Barbosa injury situation. I thought he played great in the preseason often bailing out a stagnant half court offence by taking it hard to the rim. Better than expected defense as well. And I like his composure on the court too. He just looks like he knows what he’s doing.

I could see him becoming a fan favourite so I hope his wrist is not as bad as it sounds.

by Tronix on Oct 27, 2010 8:54 AM EDT reply actions  

If he needs surgery, I sure hope he gets it now, rather than later.

by dhackett1565 on Oct 27, 2010 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

My thoughts exactly

Get it done, get him back in time to show he’s still a player, then trade him.

by RaptorsAddict on Oct 27, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

He is about the only desireable we have

by Tinmann on Oct 27, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have started to warm up to Barbosa, too. I wouldn’t mind keeping him around past this season. Of course, that depends on the draft, trade offers, the composition of next year’s team, etc… But in general, I like the idea of having a spark plug who can come off the bench and ignite the team. If we are going to survive the growing pains of the next few years then we are going to need some excitement to tide us over.

by DW19 on Oct 27, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Oct 27, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve noticed this with Reggie Evans. His efficiency drops when he plays more than 20 minutes. He’ll average 8 or so boards a game in let than 20 mins but will produce just about the same if he starts. Hopefully that will not hppen now.

by Jeffrey Thompson on Oct 27, 2010 9:34 AM EDT reply actions  

fitness issues in previous season? too much candy?

by DW19 on Oct 27, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d ideally only like to see Reggie play about 20-25 minutes a night so that he’s not trying to do too much. The efficiency thing makes sense though…the longer he’s in the game, the more free-throw and offensive opportunities he gets…

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Oct 27, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

win

We should win this… Knights don’t have anything special or extremely dangerous. Need to slow down Amare, and just play a good game. :)
My guess is that there will be a victory by ten points. Kleiza will get over 20 points and 10 boards, I hope …

by majoras on Oct 27, 2010 9:43 AM EDT reply actions  

The bright side of the Barbosa injury:

All Sonny and Demar, all the time. More playing time for the young duo may be the best thing for this franchise long term. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Triano uses this as an excuse to bring back (thunder/lightning!!!) THE TRIANGLE OF DEATH BACK COURT!!! I’m shivering…

by MAS11 on Oct 27, 2010 11:18 AM EDT reply actions  

agree with you

Agree with you it just means more time for demar and especially weems hell even Julian wright might get more time too. I think it would be better if barbosa got the surgery done now than later.

by sherwin316 on Oct 27, 2010 11:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Good point on Wright

He may crack the rotation as a result of this injury.

by MAS11 on Oct 27, 2010 11:56 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I meant that they were the back court of the triangle of death. They were two components of the traingle of death.

by MAS11 on Oct 27, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Line of death – I like it. I’d also like Julian Wright to play more. Right now he’s basically invisible.

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Oct 27, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL @ "Line of Death"

As in shortest distance between Jack and Calderone.

by MAS11 on Oct 27, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

HEDO SUCKS

stat line from last night:

27:13 minutes

6 Points on 2-7 FG / 2-4 3PT / 0-0 FT
3 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 1 Steal
+/- of -7
4 Fouls

$10M for the season!!!

by B.C. on Oct 27, 2010 12:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Barbosa could miss the entire season with a wrist injury and that deal was still worth it.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Oct 27, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

This totally made my day ha ha ha. Wow…nice work Hedo and yes, to my colleague’s point, we could discover that Barbosa is still in Phoenix, the player we received is really an android and therefore has no future trade value, and Toronto would STILL come out on top of that trade!

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Oct 27, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup

We could be paying a bag of hammer’s Barbosa’s salary for the next two years and still have come out on top of that deal. Turk will be stealing the Suns money for the next FOUR years!

by MAS11 on Oct 27, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

By the way

I cannot remember the last time I found myself rooting for the Celtics

by Tinmann on Oct 27, 2010 12:22 PM EDT reply actions  

I was definitely conflicted

But in the end, it’s the sheer smugness of the Heat/Heat fans over the thuggery of the Celtics that did it for me. So I enjoyed Miami Thrice stink it up, especially in the first half.

by siggian on Oct 27, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Though I have a severe hate on for Boston...

…I cheered for them like I was one of the New Kids On The Block last night.

by Posterized on Oct 27, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Was thinking the same thing last night…wow LeBron hogged it…

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Oct 27, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can you blame him?

The Heat were legitimately playing better with Wade and/or Bosh on the bench.

by HDave on Oct 27, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Quoting Doug Smith

Folks, it’s fun.

I don’t know whether the Heroes of the Hardcourt will win 22 games or 34 games or 41 games and I don’t care and, you know what? I don’t know whether you should, either.

Sports is supposed to be about fun, isn’t it? Isn’t supposed to be a couple of hours of escape, from the boss and the bills and life? A diversion, a thing to entertain you and make you smile.

Yes, being a passionate fan is nice but to live and die with possessions, to dissect every nuance of every game? That’s too much.

Yes, this team will get absolutely drilled some nights and it will win some games out of nowhere. And in every game you watch – win or lose – there will be a moment, a play, a shot, a dunk, a move that makes you say "holy crap" and that’s what it’s all about.

Who cares whether this guy or that guy says they’ll win 20 games or 25 games or whatever? Does anyone really need to obsess about the predictions of others, or seek validation for their opinions all that much?

I think we all need to take a deep breath and maybe a step back and realize what it is:

A game.

It will be nice, indeed, when they win; it will be a tad less nice when they lose but at the end of the day, it’s entertainment.

Please, enjoy the good moments and quickly forget the bad. There’s enough in each of our lives that we don’t need to feel anger and angst and dismay over a bunch of guys playing a kid’s game.

by Tinmann on Oct 27, 2010 12:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t know whether the Heroes of the Hardcourt will win 22 games or 34 games or 41 games

Ladies and gentlemen, the president of the Pro Basketball Writers Association.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Oct 27, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't get it

Do you know how many they will win?

by Tinmann on Oct 27, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Smith’s other points are valid… but c’mon! He can’t distinguish between a team that will win 22 games vs. 41 wins (and what would probably be a playoff spot in the East)?!

I think 25-26 wins is a comfortable prediction. And you would assume someone that watches and writes about basketball for a living could come up with a prediction based on logic.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Oct 27, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Doug is trying hard to prepare HIS fans for a tough season without completely scaring them away… but I did find this post annoying (I’m generally pretty neutral when it comes to his work). He always tell us he is not a fan and doesn’t really care if this team wins or loses so for him, of all people, to preach to Raptors fans on how they should feel about their team is a tad irritating.

by Raptoronto on Oct 27, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bang on

It’s stuff like this that Doug writes that drives me bonkers and Raptoronto, you summed my thoughts up perfectly. Of ALL people, Doug isn’t the one to be delivering this message.

On top of this, yep, I agree, just a game Doug…but it’s such an “ivory tower” approach to:

a) say “who cares what anyone else has to say” regarding projections etc

and

b) belittle those that DO care about minutia in sports! Isn’t that like the pot calling the kettle black? Yeah, some people DO over-analyze data and games etc…but Doug, who cares if they do! That’s something THEY enjoy and really, to each his own!

Adam Francis - Publisher - RaptorsHQ.com

by Adam Francis on Oct 27, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ivory Tower Approach

Doesn’t that sum up Doug Smith in a nutshell? Talking down to the fan base, pretending no other blogs exist outside the Star/ESPN, fielding softball questions from his fawning readership, failing to provide any analysis that woould piss off Bryan Colangelo/MLSE, writing off advanced statistics in favour of analysis based on his experience as an intramural basketball player… should I continue?

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Oct 27, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hey UStation ...

… I know it’s early but you laughed at my predictions and I just want to bring attention to something…

“I’d most like to see these guys consistently have good nights:

Jack, Barbosa, Kleiza, Johnson and Bargnani combining to max out at 110 pts!

Add some minor point production from the rest and that’s a great game!"

Raptors pre-season average… 108 ppg

You asked what I thought the Lakers would score…

“so I’m gonna go on record as saying "the Lakers will average very close to 110 ppg on the season."

Preseason Avg. 98 ppg Game 1 – 112 pts

Not so crazy I think… but it’s early…

by Mikthaniel on Oct 27, 2010 1:04 PM EDT reply actions  

I think you should hold off on your celebrations. They have played exactly 0 minutes of regular season ball so far.

by DW19 on Oct 27, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL...

Totally agree, just fueling my own fire to keep on track of things this season…

I have been way too lazy a fan in the past few years and want to motivate myself to pay more attention…

by Mikthaniel on Oct 27, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

not a blow to DW19

but, lately, pre season consideration are accepted just if they fit in with the general consesus that is that this team will suck, for anything else, it is just pre season…. :)

by renato on Oct 27, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t remember the exact comment, but I’m pretty sure I was making fun of you for the range that you had put.. Wasn’t it something like 59-110?

Here’s my prediction: the Raps will score between 50-120 points per night. :)

by Ustation on Oct 27, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

The highest scoring average last year was the Suns @ 110 ppg, the lowest was 92.4 by the Nets.

So one, the statistical range is fairly minute. We’re talking a difference of 17.4 If I took the median and predicted all teams will score 101.5, I’m sure most nights, I’d be close enough to be considered right.

If you think the Raps can avg 110 per game that’d be saying they’d be the best offence in the league.

by Ustation on Oct 27, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Assuming they play a faster pace – it is not out of the realm of possibility to average 110 points per game. Unlikely, but certainly not a write-off.

by dhackett1565 on Oct 27, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

ACTUALLY...

… it was more like 59-190…lol… if every player had their worst game on the same night and had their best night on the same night…

but it was really just a demonstration of inconsistency…

p.s. it looked like the Heat were gonna get stuck around 59 points last night

by Mikthaniel on Oct 27, 2010 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ahh that’s what I found so funny.. I’m pretty sure 99.99% of all team scores fit into that category. :)

by Ustation on Oct 27, 2010 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

few thoughts

The season is finally here thanks HQ for keeping us up to date with your columes..just a few thoughts..as much as I HATE the Celtics I found myself cheering for them cause I just can’t see myself cheering for the heat..even wades comments after the game man he’s way to cocky man if lebron didn’t go off the way he did it would have been a totally blow out..and our friend hedo..oh boy its gonna be a long season for the suns if he puts up numbers like that. Even if barbosa is sideline for the rest of the season that was still a totally win in my books as it comes to that trade. Should be an interesting season and it starts tonight.

by sherwin316 on Oct 27, 2010 5:01 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

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