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by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Oct 18, 2010 12:00 PM EDT
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PrintFor more on the lack of love afforded Hedo Turkoglu during yesterday's game against the Phoenix Suns, check out the Toronto Star, Globe and Mail and National Post and Raptors Republic. Bonus: Check out this YouTube clip of a fan heckling Turk.
Basketbawful thinks the Raptors might be one of the worst teams in the league. Wages of Wins has the Dinos slated to win 25 games while Arturo Galletti is a bit more generous with a 26-win prediction.
Doug Smith shines the spotlight on Linas Kleiza.
The Picket Fence asks who are these Raptors?
Check out the Southeast Previews Recap from CelticsBlog.
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4 wins for Wizards?
It looked like Arturo Galletti is predicting that the Wizards are going to win 4 games this season. I assume that is a typo, but if not then that is quite a bold prediction. Galletti seems to have 5 teams ranked below the Raptors(Wizards, Clippers, Wolves, Sixers, Pacers).
I followed the Wages of Wins link, but all I found was a story about the Bucks. I did see that WoW has Toronto rated as a “Tier 4” team.
For the Wages of Wins link, there’s a chart about halfway down the page with the projected win-loss records for every NBA team by division. It has the Raptors finishing 25-57, one game ahead of the 76ers (which sounds about right).
I don’t know about four wins for the Wizards. I mean, that would be pretty remarkable for a team boasting a number one pick/rookie of the year candidate.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Oct 18, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, right. They are projecting another year of the Atlantic division sucking, other than the Celtics. That seems plausible. Also, it looks like neither Griffin or Wall are projected as helping their respective teams much. That’s not the greatest news for those Raptors who hope that a high draft pick would be able to set the franchise back in a positive direction. Personally, I think Griffin would have a great impact on most teams….Imagine him on this year’s Raptors, for example. However, the Clippers being the Clippers, I guess anything is possible.
Their projections are purely statistical based on NBA play – as such rookies (especially high end rookies) will tend to project much worse than they will actually play (or potentially not project at all, depending on their method). So teams with high-end rookies will tend to outperform their projections.
by dhackett1565 on Oct 19, 2010 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions
They have the WIz at 16.
Funny.. we use a tiering system as well, and that’s where we slotted the raps (4).
16 wins is still ridiculous. NJ was awful last year because lacked a single credible veteran on their roster while Washington has at least three that I can think of (Arenas, Hinrich and Howard) plus a remarkable stock of young talent. Anyone want to bet me 50 bones that the Wiz end up with more wins than the Raptors? 16 is just ridiculous.
BTW, from what i see on the chart the over/under on the Wiz is 32 games, not 16. Not sure where you got 16 from.
I didn’t read the article too carefully, but I got it from this: http://dberri.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/2010-2011-win-predictionslevy.jpg?w=449&h=421
Has there been talk about “Behind the Draft Day” on NNA/Raps TV? I only managed to watch it on the weekend, and it looked like there was a major deal to be had, and the Raps would have ended up with Avery Bradley (They provided a list of Bradley, Bledsoe and someone else). If I had to guess the deal was either with Portland or Chicago.
Haven’t seen it – I’ll have to try to catch a replay of it sometime.
by dhackett1565 on Oct 18, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
The Raps were on the clock (with 5 minutes), they had a deal lined up and were asked to provide a list of players they wanted in the draft if this other team were to pick for them. And my guess the Raps were either 1) going to pick on behalf of this team with their 13th pick [most likely scenario], or keep the pick and get another draft pick (i.e. Bradley or Bledsoe).
1) It would have had to be a team at least two picks away as they were asked to provide a list of three players (i.e. therefore not Houston, or the Bucks).
2) It would have been most likely JC as they only listed PGs as their wish list.
They had 5 minutes to get the deal together before making their “official” pick of Davis. They had to decide either if they wanted to trade package or make their pick, and if they were to make their pick they needed to figure out who it was.
The editing had the brain trust (Massi, Embry, Triano) talking about what the “list” should be for this potential trade.. then them making a decision on who the pick should be. Then no more mention of the potential deal.
Interesting stuff…
Okay, looking at Arturo Galletti’s analysis, I can see the logic from a WP standpoint. The problem I have is how wins produced is decided. First, his prediction of Arenas producing 1.9 based on the previous 3 years is ludicrous. He was injured for almost the entire first 2 seasons in that scenario and suspended for the better part of the third. Last year he was playing sub par (for him) but because his suspension happened relatively early in the season (before the half way mark), it is pretty hard to give him an accurate number. Hinrich’s biggest attributes (leadership and defense) are impossible to measure in something based purely on statistical metrics so even his predicted 4.96 WP seems a little low (I would put it closer to 6.5-8). Howard is only going to decline at this point so I understand that portion. As for Wall, I cannot argue with the logic that he will not put a season like Rondo, Paul or Magic but it wouldn’t be unreasonable for him to have a season at .15/game for a total of 10 wins (of course it would nice if he didn’t have a ass/turn of 1/2 (exaggerating). That brings us to Blatche. There is no doubt he is an enigma but his numbers improved last year (Per went up from about the league average to 17) and outside of the fact he rebounds a lower rate then people would like, he does hit FT at a good percentage. Ultimately, thinking he is only produce 0.8 wins based on the previous 3 years (2 and a half of which he was coming off the bench and averaging probably 22 minutes while doing so) stats. I would like to see a break down of his WP from last season broken into 2 parts (before the trades and after).
Ultimately, my biggest complaint is that if someone predicts a team to win 30 games and they win 34, I do not call that accurate. I understand there has to be some plus/minus but I would prefer a +/- of 2 not 4. Otherwise it is just a guess.
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