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'Ball'er the Turkish Delights.

Let me start by outright stating I'm in no way a Hedo Fan, however I've been forced to write the counter argument because the level of Hate-On has become ridiculous.  Last nights interview, "Ball!" and those stupid Pizza Pizza "Yes Coach!" commercial definitely doesn't endure him to anyone. 

I never thought Hedo would be a great fit on this team, but not for the same reasons most of you have.  I currently don’t feel his current salary is the issue, nor his points production.  Hedo is an ultra rare class of the position of  "Point Forward", and with the guards the Raps have right now, this "Point Forward" position isn’t required.  However on a team like Orlando, especially when Nelson is on the bench, it’s where Hedo shines.   Having only watched a handful of Magic games this year, including last nights against Boston, they’re showing how much they miss a Hedo. 

I really think there’s only 4 other "point forwards" in the NBA: LeBron James, Lamar Odom, Boris Diaw, Andrei Kirilenko.   LeBron’s in a different universe, and really he’s a unique position onto himself.  We can argue the value of a Point Forward, but they’re all relatively similar.  They can all do everything just decently enough.  All are about 6’9ish, can handle the ball, can pass, can shoot with some range, can drive a little and grab some boards.

 

"Hedo Sucks"

 

2010            

Diaw:  FGA:  9.2, FG 46.2%, 3% 32.7, FT 75.7%, R 4.8, A 3.7, TO 2.3, PPG10.5

Odom: FGA: 8.6, FG 43.5%, 3% 30.1, FT 67%, R 9.9, A 3.7, TO 1.8, PPG, 9.6

Kirilenko: FGA: 8.2, FG 49.5%, 3% 33.9, FT 71.9%, R 4.6, A 2.7, TO 1.3, PPG 11.7

Hedo: FGA: 10, FG 40.1%, 3% 38.9, FT 80%, R 4.6, A 4.5, TO 1.8, PPG 12.6

 

It’s funny how eerily similar their stats are.  Yes Hedo is struggling with the FG%, but his career FG% isn't that great to begin with.  Clearly he is a better play maker and has a bit more range.  Fan expecations just aren't in line with reality here.

 

"He’s being paid too much"

 

Salary (over the length of remaining contract):

Diaw: 9M, 9M, 9M

Odom: 7.5M, 8.2M, 8.9M, 8.2M

Kirilenko: 16.4M, 17.8M

Hedo: 9M, 9.8M, 10.6M, 11.4M, 12.2M

 

Salary for Hedo is right in the same ball park, but yes a bit over paid, and crazy length for the contract.  BUT it doesn’t bother me as much as it’s bothering most of you.  People are so upset over the total value of the contract, however, as much as we think we can predict future returns on a player we can’t.  What I mean is, Hedo’s performance is relatively stable over his career, and it doesn’t mean that this team won’t lose Jose or Jack to injury or trade, which in that case the value of Hedo would rise.  Think back over the last two years where we’ve had to use AP and Delfino at the point position.  In the reverse scenario, even if he was performing well right now, it wouldn’t necessarily mean the value of the contract was good, as he could get hurt at any point or then suck later.  You wouldn't go around saying what a great contract and we've got Hedo locked in for 5 years if he was playing well, so you can't really do that when he's not playing well now (which I still disagree about).  The longer the contract the greater the risk, yes.  But there’s also no indicator’s as to what the salary cap will be in 3 or 4 years time.  In the NBA, the relative % of team salary is way more important that what the exact number is.  We just know it’s going down next year.  So long story short, I’m okay with the contract.   I definitely don’t love it, and it’s 2 years too long, however I understand why it needs to be there. 

 

"But we could have used the money to sign someone else!"

 

I’d like to ask who?  Last year’s crop of F/As: Allen Iverson, Lamar Odom, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Andre Miller, Anthony Parker, Drew Gooden, Chris Wilcox, Mike Bibby, Rasheed Wallace

Who in that crop 1) Would have come here (or stayed), 2) Made this team better? 

 

"But what about 2010 F/As"

 

Ok say we did nothing over the summer.  This team is worse than the previous year.  We lose Bosh.  You think we’re going to sign future F/As?  Best case scenario is, BC gambles to improve this team and have a chance to resign Bosh and have ok seasons the next few years. 

 

Hedo is a gamble not just for today, but for the future.  He was the best F/A available last season, and I’m okay with doing something vs. nothing.  The alternate universe could have been very very ugly for the franchise.  We could have kept last years team, but I much prefer this one.  Even if it means including Hedo.

 

 

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Thank You!

For countering some of the hate by showing some comparisons. Unfortunately, overpaying for high end-ish free agents is very typical for sports teams simply because they are fairly rare commodities. Part of that overpaying is going to be on dollar amounts and part is going to be contract length.

Hedo is a player with an unusual skill set and style. I also think he’s a guy who plays better the more he’s motivated and I think it’s playoffs and tournaments that motivate him.

I don’t think we’ll ever get value for money on Hedo’s contract but it’s far from the worst either. I do think he has given us the best play (even with his recent struggles shooting and spotty defense) from the 3 that we’ve had since Garbo (excluding Marion, who really never was going to stay) and we’ve seen quite a few players tryout for that position over the last three years.

by siggian on Jan 29, 2010 1:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

100% agree! :)

by Ustation on Jan 29, 2010 2:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Supplementing this. It’s funny how 4 of the top 5 assists in January came from Hedo, AK and Lebron taking #1.

http://www.nba.com/video/channels/top_plays/2010/01/31/20100130_aotm.nba/?ls=iref:nbahpt2

And Odom converted the #2 play from Kobe. None of the top 5 were PGs.

by Ustation on Feb 1, 2010 11:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

re Hedo

Those stats are awfully similar, you’ve identified his peers well. I’m in agreement that he’s best used with the ball in his hands alot. I think that was all “BALL” was about. And it’s hard for him to put up too much of a fight. With a pass-first pg like Jose, Hedo is made somewhat redundant. He speaks with such disdain about “going through the motions, filling the wings, waiting for the ball to get to him” for a reason. He knows in that role he’s just an average player, and is unable to show why he earned that big contract in the first place.

“He’s being paid too much”
If we’re not going to use him the way he’s meant to be used, it’s a problem of resource allocation. Given time, I believe that BC will shape the roster in a manner which makes better use of Hedo’s gifts. Personally, I could live with overpaid in the short term, a contract which is two years too long grates too much for me to be okay with it. I also want to state that salary and term are linked in free agency. If someone throws you two extra years, a player is willing to lower the yearly hit. And vice versa.

That last paragraph was on point. There were only a subset of free agents that would be willing to come to Toronto (or any other city for that matter). Ariza took less money to choose Houston over Toronto. Does he dislike Toronto or really like Houston? Who knows? Hedo was interesting in coming to Toronto, and even if he wasn’t the best FA available, he was the best one that was willing to play for us. How do I know? Cause if someone better was also interested, they would be rocking the uniform and not him

I do have a counter-argument for you regarding a revamped roster (with Hedo) being better then the status quo without him. BC was willing to renounce all the Raptor free agents to sign Hedo, willing to forgo having quality bench depth, and perhaps have a few will-solomon type minimum contracts filling out the end of the bench. The fact we got a more well rounded team out of the deal was a fortunate event. This was always about getting Hedo in a Raptor uniform, at seemingly any cost.

Siggian,

It isn’t a tall order to find a player that can provide the best SF play since Garbo, its not an illustrious list. And Garbo himself was able to contribute at half Hedo’s price tag per season. Think of how messy things would’ve gotten if Garbo was signed for 5 years, not three. Ustation is right in that we can’t predict future returns on any player. However, this is not a justification for not trying to minimize potential losses due to the deterioration of a player’s skills and / or health as they age. I’m not an avid follower of the NBA at all. However, a five year contract for a 30 year old seems like more of a risk then a five year contract for a 28 year old. If your issue is five year contracts in general, then that’s one issue. If your issue is paying big money when a player is in his mid 30s, then that’s another. Adding a 30 year old on a five year contract, when the team’s core players are in their early to mid 20s, seems like folly to me. We are working ourselves up to our best days, whereas Hedo has already peaked. I admittedly don’t have any numbers or charts on player performance after 30. I do feel comfortable saying that rarely is a player able to maintain their level of performance between 30 and 35. They usually see a reduction in their role, as they are gradually (or not so gradually) phased from key cog to supporting piece. I’m sure there are exceptions to the rule, however not enough to form a majority.

There are several issues concerning Hedo, the contract, the roster fit, and the cap which any fan could have issues with. Mix them all together and I’m not surprised the signing is not looked upon favorably in some corners. The cold reality is that alot of team building is haphazard and on the fly for a reason. You never know which opportunities are going to present themselves. You never know which players will improve, and which will regress. So many variables whose results can’t be determined, only projected.

A few possibilities:

Gamble signing Hedo and Bosh stays = win. Go for broke, become a tax team. Future is now. DeRozan may be sent packing for a sg who is in his prime :-(

Gamble signing Hedo and Bosh leaves = recipe for treadmill team, always out in first round, never bad enough for a shot at a high potential player in the draft.

Status quo Bosh Stays = It was about the $30 million, NOW get cracking on this short term plan before he asks for a trade.

Status quo Bosh leaves = New 3 year plan. The new goal being to be a competitive team while the core (Calderon, Jack, Bargnani, and DeRozan) are still under contract. Semi Tank the 2011 season, and then use some of the proceeds from the Bosh S & T to trade up for a high lottery level ncaa upperclassman. Add him to existing core, and use cap space from 2011 expiring contracts (Evans and Banks) to TRADE for veterans rebuilding teams are trying to unload / drafted players they can’t afford to resign. See where that takes us. Not ideal, but not doom and gloom forever either.

by Yardly on Feb 4, 2010 8:46 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Allow me to respond

My comparison to Garbo was to illustrate just what a collection of mediocre to downright poor players we’ve cycled through that position.

My reason for saying that we probably won’t get value for $ on Hedo is for precisely the points you mention. My point is that while we likely won’t get value, the contract isn’t the worst in the NBA and likely won’t be in the future either. If Bargnani continues to improve, the value of his contract will more than balance out Hedo’s.

by siggian on Feb 4, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair Enough

Seems I read the Garbo sentence differently then it was intended. Hedo’s contract will be less of a problem if MLSE is committed to being a tax team in the next few seasons.

by Yardly on Feb 5, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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