The Triano Effect

I thought his Canadian national team experience would be a plus. We don’t have a wealth of talent, so I inferred that a coach with his background would be accustomed to mixing and matching, finding the best way to get irregular pieces to fit together while addressing the needs of the team.

I view this year as a developmental one, and the way Triano runs the ship will determine how well players progress. Part of that is being seen as someone that gives people a fair shake, and keeps the doors of communication open. We’ve accumulated some depth, and as the 2007-08 team showed, that can lead to both role confusion, and dissension in the ranks. I recall Jack Armstrong talking about the hazards of having a clump of players at a position, with roughly the same cumulative skill level. Without that clear pecking order of talent, everybody thinks they’re better then the next guy, and are unwilling to take a backseat in the rotation.

I see the SG position as one where concerns could emerge later in the season.

(I’m only going to explore this scenario as a hypothetical, in no way suggesting its likely)

I see the pecking order for SG as follows (Bellinelli, DeRozan, Wright, Jack, Douby).
1) Bellineli gets first dibs for a two key reasons. Primarily, its due to the fact he has the best balance of offensive and defensive skills, combine with experience. Second, he doesn’t possess the size and strength to cover minutes at SF (a la Delfino).

2) DeRozan is a complete wildcard, however Triano has stated that his development via consistent court time will be a priority. He is the precarious situation of getting minutes not by beating out his competition, but in the name of player development.

3) Wright has the ability to play minutes at SF, and his strength is defense, which can’t be said for anyone else in this race. On the downside, he’s on an expiring contract, one which the team may be anxious to let expire for much needed luxury tax breath room next year. If the decision to cast him adrift has already been made, it is much easier to put the screws to him should a minutes crunch emerge later.

4) Jack is backing up a player expected to play ~35 minutes. To justify his salary, I can see him getting a 8-10 minutes at SG per game.

I think our team will secure a low seed in the playoffs. This means that late in the season, every victory will have the added importance of affecting playoff positioning and end of season tiebreakers. It is at this point, that what DD does (or doesn’t) do with his minutes will come to a head. By making typical rookie mistakes, while a vet like Wright or Jack sits, his place in the rotation could be seen as undermining the team’s march to the post-season. The D-League wouldn’t be an option, due to the perceived cachet that being a lottery pick brings. They usually stay up regardless of any scarcity of minutes, and their right to refuse assignment is a big part of that. The better Triano is at communicating EVERYONE’s place in BC’s grand plan during training camp, the less grumbling there will be later on. Does he have the confidence to be proactive in telling certain veterans what they may not want to hear? Or does he want to be everybody’s friend at the outset, knowing that vets are the ones that will drive the team’s success, and deal with the politics of minutes distribution as they arise?

I will clarify the use of the word developmental. IMHO, I don’t see the Raptors advancing beyond the first round this year. Given no roster changes (a big IF I know), it is Bargnani’s development that will be the main drive behind the team’s short-term internal improvement. Hedo, given his age relative everyone else, seems like a hedge to buy time for Derozan. In general, I’ve read that young players start making an impact in their 3rd year. If Hedo’s performance plateaus, and then declines through the life of the contract, then it would inversely mirror DD’s expected rise towards a major role. Year three would be the height of their combined talents, with years four and five featuring declines by Hedo canceled out by improvements by DD.

Following this model, I would expect year to year improvement, for the next three years at least. This makes the year upcoming useful less for regular season record, if expecting a first round dismissal, then progress shown by Bargnani, and to a much lesser extent Bellineli. Bargs plays so many minutes at such a crucial position, that even if his improvement was limited to better positioning on defense and offense, it would make a noticable difference in the team’s overall performance. Now if he was able to significantly improve his bball skills (ie post-up game, reading caroms of the rim, passing) in addition to his bball IQ then we’d really be rolling. However, skill development isn’t something we can forcast as reliably as the positive effect of experience on future performance at this age.

We just have to wait and see. The changes are a positive, now its up to the players to bring it every night from October to April and everything else will fall into place. One cannot predict what this team will do in the playoffs that’s a totally different ballgame and anything can happen. Everybody is beatable except for the team that win the championship which will be the team that beat all their opponents in the post season. I feel good about the Raptors for next season, I have no expectations as to what will happen, I am a game to game guy that does not speculate, teams that looks good on paper doesn’t necessarily mean they will be good on the court and vise versa. Its the team that plays hard, players knowing their roll and buy into the coach’s system that makes in to June……………….Raps4Life