Looking Back - Comparing the Raptors in 08-09 to this Coming Season
by Adam Francis on Aug 31, 2009 8:22 AM EDT
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Franchise kicks off the week by taking a look at last year's pre-season predictions...
As an annual occurence, the folks at Celticsblog host an NBA Blogger Preview before the season gets going.
Various blogs discuss their team's expected fortunes based on off-season movement, and therefore it's always interesting to look back at what was said once the season has concluded.
For us at the HQ, as a group we initially predicted 49 wins for the 2008-09 Raptors, but after watching the team go 4 and 4 in pre-season play, I realized that that number was probably much too high. In fact, after a pre-season thrashing at the hands of the Denver Nuggets, here were my comments:
To me right now, this is a .500 team; the starters are good enough (if healthy) to gain and hold leads while the bench looks not only thin, but completely unsettled and able to let opponents back into matches.
Of course the Raptors didn't even get close to the 42 win mark in the end, finishing the season with an eventual 33 and 49 record.
In essence, last season was a worse-case scenario in many ways as every issue that was raised in our blogger preview came to fruition.
-Jermaine O'Neal and Jose Calderon had trouble staying healthy.
-The club's lack of depth became a major achilles' heel.
-Andrea Bargnani struggled to find his role until later in the season.
-The team lacked toughness and athleticism.
-The swingman spot was a revolving door of near D-Leaguers.
-The back-up point guard situation was a disaster.
-And defensively, the team was akin to a sieve.
Nearly everything that could go wrong did go wrong and Sam Mitchell ended up paying the ultimate price for having many of these situations unfold on his watch.
Looking back at our blogger preview this weekend I got wondering just how different things will be this season.
As has been discussed throughout the summer, many of the issues that plagued this team last season look to have been addressed in some capacity, but right now it's very hard to say just how much of a "fix" they'll be. For instance DeRozan and Weems should help from an athleticism standpoint, but we're talking about two players with very little NBA experience combined, both of whom could struggle to find minutes in a veteran-laden line-up. Even DeRozan, who appears to have been penciled in as a starter by Jay Triano, could struggle and eventually be replaced by the likes of Wright, Belinelli and even Jack.
And while Evans, Nesterovic and Johnson should be a boost in terms of toughness-rebounding-shot-blocking, since none expected to see major minutes, just how much of an improvement can Raptors' fans expect to see from the Dinos in these areas? It could very well be argued that success in these categories falls heavily on Andrea Bargnani and perhaps even Hedo Turkoglu. Should they improve defensively and on the glass, this would play a much greater role in Toronto's final record than anything Evans, Nesterovic and Johnson do.
The main thing I think fans need to be excited about however is that even if Colangelo's attempts at fixing last year's issues aren't absolute, he at least looked to touch on each and every one. I can't stress enough not only how incredibly rare the opportunity to do that is, but also how rare it is in the NBA to be able to take advantage of that opportunity and make such wholesale changes. Aside from the Boston Celtics' championship push two years ago when Allen, Garnett and co were brought on board, and the Portland Trailblazers youth movement from the 2006 draft, I had a tough time thinking of another club in the past decade that's undergone such a complete overhaul as this off-season's Raptors.
Again, how successful the changes will be - hard to say.
However it's extremely exciting as a fan to see upgrades at nearly every spot on the roster, and barring major injuries, this should be a much-improved club, one that will be fighting for a playoff seed.
I still expect the club to struggle in terms of defensive metrics, but this is an infinitely more deep group than last year and hopefully BC has given Triano all the pieces he needs to find a winning combination.
Will we be suggesting 49 wins as a group again when we submit our blogger preview to Celticsblog?
I personally won't, but that doesn't mean if all goes well that it's not possible for the 2009-10 Toronto Raptors to hit that mark.
And as fans, really, that's all you can ask coming out of an off-season - a reason to hope that this coming season will be a lot different than the last.
FRANCHISE
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Big man minutes
“And while Evans, Nesterovic and Johnson should be a boost in terms of toughness-rebounding-shot-blocking, since none expected to see major minutes, just how much of an improvement can Raptors’ fans expect to see from the Dinos in these areas?”
If we assume Bosh and Bargs play 36 minutes, and believe Triano when he says that he wants one of them on the floor at all times, then they will play 24 minutes together. That leaves 24 minutes (half the game) when one of those rebounders will be on the floor with one of the two starters. Half the game is kind of… significant.
The tricky thing is, not all are playing at once. So maybe you get decent minutes for Evans so the rebounding improves, but he’s never been known as either a shot-blocker or lock-down defender. So I guess my point is, instead of having one player off the bench who can do more than one of these things defensively, Toronto has arguably 3 that all contribute in a slightly one-dimensional manner. So while the team is deeper, it’s too early to say whether or not the team can take advantage of that depth considering it may take playing 10 or 11 guys to make full use of the variety of skill sets.
by Adam Francis on Aug 31, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
That will be an issue. I still think you are underestimating the effect of actually having role players for that 24 minutes each game versus last year, with Voskuhl and POB and Pops (although Pops was useful for stretches).
It will actually be very very interesting to see what Jay does with his specialist-brimming lineup (outside the starters of course).
Bigs: Rasho (defense), Evans (boards), Amir (blocks/potential)
Wings: DeRozan (athleticism/potential), Wright (D), Beli (shooting), Jack (D)
Lots of tools, lots of potential, lots of potential for problems. We shall see.
by dhackett1565 on Aug 31, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I think this ultimately will depend heavily on whether Johnson takes a step forward and can play decent defense without getting into foul trouble. He is probably the most athletic of the three and “COULD” give the Raptors a decent big off the bench IF he were to take that step. Not sure he will but I guess one could hope.
Totally agree. Johnson is a real wild card here. If he shows he can rebound and play D as well as block and alter shots, then suddenly this could make Toronto a whole lot scarier.
by Adam Francis on Aug 31, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Winning Is About Defense, Defense and Defense
The old Suns that scored a lot and were relatively successful I don’t believe ever got to the NBA Finals and only did as well as they did because they did have a few guys in the rotation who could play some good defense.
However when you look at the run and gun teams like last year’s Knicks, the GS Warriors of a few years ago and the Pacers they were at best .500 teams.
You only win consistently and especially against good teams by playing tough defense.
People really look at the game the wrong way. They say. I have a guy that can get me 15 – 20 points a night and few boards so he must get minutes because after all it is the team that scores the most points in a game that wins.
However, both teams start each game with zero points. So the way to win is to keep the other team from scoring. Of course no team finishes a game with zero points but defense you have control over and offense comes and goes. In addition I can not even begin to count how many games with good teams playing that I have watched that were won in the 4th quarter because the winning team defensivley stopped their opponent.
So the idea behind the game is simple. Play the best five guy combination that has the widest positive plus/minus differential as a unit. While a team needs at least a couple of guys that cans put up big numbers on offense on regular basis you do a lot better with maybe 3 good scores who can play at least average defense and 2 guys who are stoppers. Guys that go out and shut down the other team’s top guns. For example the Lakers last year had Kobe and Ariza. This year they will be even better with Kobe and Artest on the court.
For the Raptors to win consistently against good teams they should give heavy minutes to their two best defensive players and then fill in the other 3 spots with guys that can score.
Defense
Agreed, to an extent.
However, basketball has developed to the point that these top scorers and athletes can’t be stopped. Not by a single player. Team defense is what really makes the biggest difference.
As long as the Raps buy into a defensive scheme from Jay/Iavaroni that stems from the KO playbook, they should be at least alright defensively, even with their offensively oriented players.
And as another note, a good example of what can happen when too much emphasis is placed on defense is the year KO coached the Raps. One of the best defenses in the league, but netted us what, 33 wins?
The key isn’t defense. The key is balance. A strong offensive unit with a solid defensive philosophy and a stopper to be used in key situations such as the end of games, rather than for “heavy minutes,” is the best bet for success. See the offensive efficiencies of some of the top teams in the league last year. They were all good on the defensive side, but they were all good on the offensive side too.
by dhackett1565 on Aug 31, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Was KOs defense actually good?
I think the KO defense relied more on a slowed pace, i.e. limit the number of possessions to keep the score low, but I’m not sure it was a “good” defense. That’s what kind of intrigues me about Triano wanting to use that playbook on the defensive end. Unless there was more to that playbook that just wasn’t implemented because of personnel.
I suppose the goal would be to implement a highly efficient offense that doesn’t rely on too many possessions, thus forcing the opponent to be more efficient to win games. I still stick to the notion that the best model for what the Raptors aim to be going forward is the San Antonio Spurs.
It will be interesting to see, if as fans we’re willing to make a style of play trade off for more wins.
by HQ Interloper on Aug 31, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Now that’s a very interesting point. KO’s playbook was such a “slow-it-down” system at both ends of the court that perhaps the defensive fortitude was exagerated. I’m going to dig into this a bit more – might make for a very interesting post.
Also, we’ll be attending media day again this year and this is something I’m going to bring up with the coaches for sure.
by Adam Francis on Aug 31, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
2003-04 Toronto Raptors Roster and Statistics
Points Per Game: 85.4 (29th of 29) ▪ Opponent Points Per Game: 88.5 (6th of 29)
Pythagorean W-L: 31-51 (23rd of 29)
Arena: Air Canada Centre ▪ Attendance: 750,608 (8th of 29)
SRS: -3.42 (24th of 29) ▪ Pace Factor: 86.8 (27th of 29)
Offensive Rating: 97.0 (28th of 29) ▪ Defensive Rating: 100.4 (7th of 29)
KO, awful as he and his teams were to watch, was one of our better coaches. He’s a little bit underrated ala Mike Brown, just because he can’t coach a lick of offense.
But the probalem with this team was talent, look at this hideous team after I take out the semi-competent NBAers:
Chris Bosh
Vince Carter
Donyell Marshall
Morris Peterson
Robert Archibald
Mengke Bateer
Lonny Baxter
Corie Blount
Michael Bradley
Rick Brunson
Michael Curry
Antonio Davis
Dion Glover
Chris Jefferies
Roger Mason
Jerome Moiso
Lamond Murray
Milt Palacio
Jannero Pargo
Jalen Rose
Rod Strickland
Alvin Williams
Jerome Williams
The list is full of guys who never made it, or vets at the end of their rope.
I do not understand why everyone falls back on the “Defense wins Championships” mantra. Yes, historically teams with good defenses have won a lot of championships but I bet if you look at it, it is actually teams with great offenses and at least an average defense that wins the most championships (see St Louis Rams vs Tenn in the superbowl). The reality is that the reason so many teams in pro sports seem to favour defense is that it is a skill that can be taught. Defense has always been about desire over actual skill and therefore you can compete even if you do not have much talent. The Pistons are the obvious choice as a comparison but they have only won 1 championship during the span over the last 10 years (when they started to come into prominence) while almost every other team that has won has done so with an excellent offensive weapon (D. Wade, Kobe, Duncan/Ginoboli). If all of that is true then wouldn’t you rather watch a team try and score 130 points a game? Defense can only take you so far and if you admit that scorers are going to score no matter what, it makes sense to go to an attacking style of offense. If they shut down Bosh, then Andrea, Turk and Calderon should all be able to pick up the slack and vice-versa. At the very least offense is more entertaining for the fans and that is the bottom line for MLSE going forward. If they win a championship, well that is a bonus.
Recent NBA History
Yes the Lakers last year could score, but could also defend
The Celtics had a well balanced attack in 2007-08 but won primarily because of defense led by KG
The Spurs titles over the last decade have been achieved because of defense
The Heat won with Shaq in middle when he could still move faster than molasses.
The Pistons won in 2004 with Sheed, B. Wallace and Billups leading the defense
Offense is exciting but you have to be able to stop your opponent to win consistently against the best NBA teams.
It goes without saying that football is a bit of a different animal. However, if you look at the Colts and Peyton Manning, arguably the greatest quarterback ever in terms of offensive production, the Colts have alway fallen short because of lack of good defense except the one year that they won and that was because their defense stepped it up during the playoffs that year.
People tend to oversimplify – generally speaking, a point scored is as good as allowing one less point. A great offense can’t make up for abysmal defense when they match up with a team that is very good at both. Even the best defensive team in the league is going nowhere if it can’t score.
Offense is a little more inconsistent than defense though – especially if you rely on jumpshots/3-balls. If you remember the Suns/Spurs series, the Suns would often blow out the Spurs in their wins, but end up losing by a slimmer margin. They weren’t an inferior team (had title potential if JJ wasn’t hurt), they were just boom/bust at the mercy of their low-percentage/high payout shots dropping.
For some reason, it looks worse when a powerhouse offense loses (01 Rams vs. Pats, 08 Pats vs. Giants). But when the #1 D loses people rarely consider it as much of a failure.
Much Improved Team
A healthy Calderon would have given us 5-7 more wins. Since Jose is healthy, Turkoglu is capable of winning games in the fourth quarter (and a jersey from Mr Franchise and Mr Defensive Stance), and given our much improved depth, a team record 48-49 wins is not outside the realm of possibility. I do wish we would get another SF, preferably a lock-down type like Ime Udoka.
Sign me up for a jersey if Hedo starts knocking down game-winners on a regular basis!
by Adam Francis on Aug 31, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I started off last season predicting 41 wins but bought into the hype and actually moved it up to 45 as the season started.
I normally would have had some numbers crunched this year for my predictions, but the east has seen so many changes this is going to be a volatile prediction this year.
That early part of the schedule is so tough and if they get on a bad start they might not comeback from it.
I’m going to go with 43 – 39 and 6th. But not so confident this year vs three years ago I was -2, two years ago -4 and last year +2 pre season but ended up +6 (stupid hype!).
October: 1-1 Starting off with a bang in Cleveland
November: This will be the make or break part to the season with 2 long road trips out west sandwhiched by a cup of coffee at home to Chicago. Then there’s the two games against Orlando and one with Chicago. The must win games are vs the Clippers, Bobcats, Heat, Pacers and Pistons.
7-9 (crossing my fingers huge for a near .500 month)
December: Alot of home and aways but this is where they need to dominate. The softest part of the schedule and if they didn’t get destroyed in November, or even if they did, they need to move huge. If they go say 6-12 start they may not have the confidence to run December as they should. But let’s go positive and say 9-6.
January: A more balanced month again with home and aways vs eastern opponents. 7-8
February: Nice easy run at home with only Cleveland as a huge opponent. 7-3
March: The meat of the season with another long West Coast trip through the Lakers. A balanced schedule with a mixture of tough and soft: 8-8
April: Finishing off against Eastern rivals. They will be jockeying for mid range spot in the playoffs and if they survived the first month, a battle for 4th. If they didn’t survive the first month they’ll be battling for a playoff spot. 4-4
+6?
I don’t understand your + measures there. Wouldn’t +6 mean the Raps won 39 games? And +2 (41-41) would give the same result…
But they didn’t…
by dhackett1565 on Aug 31, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Sign me up for 50 wins and the fourth seed.
And yes, I LOVE the cool-aid.
by velociraptor on Aug 31, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Love your enthusiasm
I’d love for the Raptors to win 50-55 games this year, and maybe they could if everything breaks their way. I don’t believe that will happen, but I do think this year’s team will be a lot more fun to watch. I’ll go for 44-wins and a lot better product on the floor. At least with the added depth that this team has they should be much less likely to end up in worst-case-scenario territory, like they did last year.
Wins????
Why is everyone so concerned about wins? No matter how many wins this team gets this year, if they get smacked out of the playoffs in 4 or 5 games in the first round it will be a disappointment; considering the investment in new players that has been made by management. However, the reality is that if this team doesn’t play defense the above scenario will be exactly what awaits them this spring.
This team might net 44-48 wins in the regular season by simply outscoring their competition most nights, but that’s not going to happen in the playoffs if they meet Boston, Cleveland or even Orlando.
Rob
by 2nd Raps Fan in LA on Aug 31, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions
I think the concern with the number of wins is that 48 or more wins will very likely get the 4th or 5th seed, and as such a matchup against some team that is not one of the elite three you mentioned.
by dhackett1565 on Aug 31, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
The sme trap........
Last year, I think I called 50 wins, year before about the same.
Will play it conservative and call 47. And a 5th place finish, And a first round playoff victory with Hedo hitting the game 6 winner at home in TO against the 4th place Magic.
I really do like the make-up of this team. Our defence will impoove, it’s gotta, right? 500 ball would have to be a disappointment.
To hand rookie DeRozen the starting job is perhaps asking a lot. What if he turns out to be another Kris Humphries. The report on Hedo isn’t exactly all rosy because defenders have all figured out that his moves are mostly to his left. We know what Nesterovic brings but he is a back-up at best on most quality teams. Again, Amir Johnson brings high hopes much like J. O’ Neill when he was traded for Ford but turned out to be damaged goods. On the floor leadership and team chemistry are what Triano must look for and fine tune. On paper, a much improved team. Hopefully the Raptors are back at least equal to the 2007/08 season wins.
It’s not a stretch to suggest the Raptors are capable of winning 50 games
Roster changes improve Raps’ odds
By FRANK ZICARELLI, SUN MEDIA
The odds of the Raptors winning the NBA title aren’t good, but the bookies figure Toronto’s revamped roster isn’t bad, either.
In the latest numbers released by the odds-makers in Las Vegas, the Raptors have been installed as 35:1 longshots to claim the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Considering Toronto opened at 50:1, the folks in Vegas have reinforced the improved state of the Raptors.
Another telling number will be the season win total, a figure that’s expected to get posted next month.
It’s not a stretch to suggest the Raptors are capable of winning 50 games in an Eastern Conference that is shaping up to be very competitive and compelling.
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Basketball/NBA/Toronto/2009/08/31/10695536-sun.html
Current Raptors depth chart by ESPN
I would go along with it except I am not so sure that Johnson will be ahead of Evans come opening day.
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