The Miserable Elegance of Andrea Bargnani

by Thomas Anderson on Aug 22, 2009 3:57 AM EDT

In the new era of NBA fandom science, it seems, is king.

Pick a blog, or a basketball-related website. There will, undoubtedly, be numerous posts, using the latest metrics and numbers to describe and rank players. From John Hollinger to 82games.com, the landscape of NBA writing has changed. And with it, so have the fans.

We're more tech-savvy now. We can understand more complicated statistics than our ancestors. Per game measures you say, we scoff at such trifles. Ours is a world where every moment is accounted for. We are the NBA economists.

Economics is all about efficiency. It's the science of being cheap. If I can buy a bushel of corn for $4.00 from one farmer, or pay just $2.00 down the road, naturally I choose the latter. If I can choose between a player who shoots 38% from the floor, and one who shoots 48%, again I choose the latter. And, if my starting centre averages 6.8 rebounds per 40 minutes--

Sorry, I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

This is our problem. And it's one that's been beaten, kicked and pistol-whipped more than halfway to death. Our centre doesn't rebound. He tries, but he's no good at it. He jumps -- arms raised -- towards a falling basketball; but there's always someone else who jumps higher, or with better timing, or who simply pokes the ball out of Il Mago's soft hands.

Perhaps we just need to accept it. Andrea Bargnani is like our teenaged son turned goth. Sure it might bother us. We can all hope that it's just a phase, and that better days are ahead. But every morning while we drink our coffee, Andrea comes down the stairs: still with his nail polish, still with his mascara, still with a perpetual scowl.

Andrea Bargnani isn't particularly efficient. At least, not as far as his movements are concerned. While his shooting percentages have gone up and his turnovers have gone down, there has always been something unnaturally elegant about the way that he plays. From his one-dribble, pull-up jumper, to his curling finger-roll -- the big Italian moves with an uncommon grace. It's luxurious. His movements are so clean and fluid that they appear almost wasteful.

Andrea's been buying $4.00 corn. And that's what makes him so fun to watch.

But when a missed shot bounces off of the rim there is no time for luxury. Sure, he can make a twenty foot jump shot look like a pirouette, but you have to get the ball before you can shoot.

The very thing that makes Andrea Bargnani so good at basketball, is the very thing that makes him, um, bad.

They say rebounding is all about the dirty work. A player has to be quick, decisive, even ruthless in his pursuit of the basketball. I don't know if we'll ever see those qualities out of Andrea, but as long as he keeps pulling moves like this, I'm willing to accept him for who he is.

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7Ft 2 Guard

One of the interesting things I learned from reading the Wages of Wins blog – which offers another statistical vivisection of basketball, is that while Bargnani has terrible stats for a center (especially low rebounds, and low FG%), he actually has good stats if we compare him to 2Guards.

Defensively he has to cover the other teams center – so that means that AB is always going to be considered a C (its who you primarily defend that determines what position you are).

But on offense his game is much more like that of a 2Guard than a C. He spends little time near the basket getting high efficiency put-back dunks, and more time floating around the perimeter launching less efficient bombs.

IMO the WOW metric will never capture the essence of AB’s offensive game because he is being compared to less talented goons whose only job is to rebound under the cylinder, and collect tip in junk.

by velociraptor on Aug 22, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions

re: WOW and future play acquisitions

I recall you’ve been a pretty big proponent of the WOW metric in your past posts.
My rough understanding is that it compares a players statistical performance relative to his peers at
the same position. I also recall reading that it puts a strong emphasis on rebounding, and turnovers hence Jamario’s high ranking relative to our perception of him.

You mention that Bargs doesn’t pick up those high efficiency put-back dunks since he’s just not in the paint. This also explains his low offensive rebounding numbers for a big man (0.9 last season).

My question is that if you were to look for the ideal front court complement to Bargs, would looking for an excellent WOW score be one of the primary statistical indicators? Are there any players whose numbers standout as a potential great fit?

Given the presence of our various skill players, you’d want someone with low turnovers since they’d spend most of their time off the ball. More importantly like Vicious D said, a high WoW score would indicate a strong rebounder relative to other bigmen. No more having the likes of Varejao, Okafor, and Jamison ring us up for mid-teens boards.

by Yardly on Aug 24, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Great Post

I think your fanpost does an “elegant” job of capturing all the issues associated with Bargs. He really is the supreme X Factor on this team given that his size dictates that he play a position that he’s not really suited for. One hopes that he can improve enough in the rebounding department so as not to be such a detriment to the team on the defensive end, but really, I think this season goes a long way in determining just whether Bargs and Bosh can be an effective combo going forward.

by Adam Francis on Aug 23, 2009 9:46 AM EDT reply actions

re: Bosh as a finesse PF

Your point about determining if Bargs and Bosh can not just co-exist, but form a bigman combo you can win with is a big question. From a longevity standpoint, players with his build last longer when they able to avoid the battles in the paint. I wonder if Bosh can flip the switch to Olympic mode, and focus on offensive rebounding, and defending the paint.

Its possible that Bargs and Bosh rack up the numbers, and yet have a combined contribution to the team that is less then the sum of their stats. It’s important that a team’s best players have some synergy between their games, and this is crucial when they share similar positions and areas of the court.

by Yardly on Aug 24, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I believe the lack of actual games to watch believe we are in the period of the year where, in relation to any player we just live out of by now distant memories and like in all distant memories, we tend to have … selective memories (have you already started talking about the “good old times”, even so you may never had it better then now? if you didn’t, brace yourself, you will start soon).

Selective memory 1) Bargnani had a dreadful first half of the season. Not true, he had a heck of a start of the season, he had a very bad December (while playing the three). go back and have a look at his stat lines.

Selective memory 2) Rebounds: There’s always someone else who jumps higher, or with better timing, or who simply pokes the ball out of Il Mago’s soft hands. Not true, not as a blanket statement, he had very, very good rebounding figures (above 10) against top NBA teams. I agree, it is puzzling how he can grab 14 rebounds against the lakers (he did, last season) and maybe 4 against a YMCA team the the night after. The position? the attitude? both? For sure he is not concerned about his own stats when he plays. The point is he has it in him, the problem is why is he not getting rebounds consistently, but that seems more a problem for the coaching staff more than anything else.

Selective memory 3) He is a bad defender. No he is not, man to man he may have been our last season best defender. Help defense:mediocre, but is it Andrea’s problem or a team problem?

Selective memory 4) He is an X factor. Hey, he is a 20 and 6 guy already, what does he need to become just passable? 40/12?

I believe the guy is under a constant scrutiny and pressure like no other player on this team (not even Bosh) and Toronto fans are hypercritical and they measure him against ( the hype of ) the player they wanted to have: Greg Olden.

Moreover, it is funny how people never let the truth come in the way of a good story, go back and have a look at the Highlights and stats of Andrea rookie season playoffs and this year Olden’s ones.

At the end of the rant, just for a change, Franchise, why don’t you put together an article on Andrea, based on the half full part of the glass? For progressing you have to build upon what you already have, analyzing how his skills impact the team performances and what tread off you would be willing to make and why. For example, in late April he has told the (Italian) press that his summer program was to actually loose fat mass (rather than getting bulkier) . As I cannot think he makes these decisions without talking to the Raptors organization, it seems like they have made some choices that will affect his perfomances in several ways on D and on O. What would you (the site) he to become (starting from his current physical and technical level)? what would you be willing to work on, what would the trade off be?
Renato

by renato on Aug 23, 2009 3:33 PM EDT reply actions

Renato

First of all, Franchise didn’t post this story. I did.

And perhaps more importantly, you seem to think that I don’t like Andrea, or am picking on him. This couldn’t be more wrong. I love his game. I agree that he’s a very solid one-on-one defender, and I also agree that he’s much more than an X factor. I feel that if we’re getting a second all-star this year, Andrea’s our man.

I feel that he does have limitations as a rebounder. If you think he gets it together when it matters, against the good teams, that’s cool. I’d like to see him improve a lot more in this way.

With that said, my main point wasn’t even Andrea’s limitations as a centre. It was more 1) our nature as fans to be over-analytical and stat-obsessed. and so miss the joy of watching someone who can do the things he does on the basketball court, and 2) that I don’t particularly blame Andrea for his limitations, but rather believe them to be an affect of his unique physicality.

by Thomas Anderson on Aug 23, 2009 10:21 PM EDT reply actions

Thomas,
I do appreciate you wrote the story, and I was really inviting Franchise to write that article as he is one of the site owners / main editors. You see, you, me, everybody would love Andrea to be dominant in every aspect of the game and that is not realistic, not for him not for anybody else. He does not rebound as Moses Malone, but put Moses 6 meters from the bucket and he would have been lost.
Some fans complain about Andrea’s shortcomings back at the bucket, but funny enough, their favourite (Oden) is just as awful if not more and he does not even have a middle range game (let alone a long range one). Actually it gets even funnier when when I see article on this site, even from one site editor comparing Andrea actual stats with Oden’s per 38 minutes stats, where he has never been able to stay 38 minutes in as he has fouled out much earlier (I believe I remember Oden averaged in the last playoffs more fouls than points) for he did not have 38 min in his legs.

I have no idea whether Andrea will consistently improve on his shortcomings, what I know is he has shown he has game, he has shown he is clutch and actually ar I do not remember him missing (ever to be honest) on a last second or last minute game changing shot. He is not “there”, by any stretch of the imagination, but this is also because the cieling for him, at this point, seems to be much further away that some Toronto fans summer wet dreams (in relation to same age players)

PS, for all Toronto’s fans who would like to have a back to the basket kind of C to pair him with Bosh, I would like to remind you that he had one last year and he was traded also because the experiment did not work also because the two ( Bosh and JO) were competing for the same space. Bosh is actually performing better paired with Andrea as he can drive without (more often than not) having to face the opposite C.

by renato on Aug 24, 2009 4:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually, what I’d like to pair Bargnani with is a PF who is most concerned about rebounding, and rebounding only. Bosh can be that player (as shown in the Olympics) but if he continues to feel to be the guy that has to make every shot and take the game into his hands, the Raptors will never become more than average. At this point, it’s about positioning between the two players. I agree that pairing up Bargnani with a back to the basket player will make sure he’s out of the paint, but at the same time, having Bosh concerned about his touches all the time is problematic

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com Twitter @RapHQVicious

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Aug 24, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I would like to pair Bargnani with Kobe or LeBron.

by Ustation on Aug 25, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

wrong sentence

I said: I would like to remind you" …. where I was not actually “ranting” against you at all so it need to be read as: “I would like to remind” and just scrap the “you”

by renato on Aug 24, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

lol. No problem. Not taking it personally.

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com Twitter @RapHQVicious

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Aug 24, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Well said man. I have to fight the other HQ guys all the time :p He’s just such an awe-inspiring kind of player to watch at times.

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com Twitter @RapHQVicious

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Aug 24, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

re: What would you like to see Andrea Improve, and what to trade off

Hmm.

The Fanpost (which is well-written by the way) refers to the elegance of Bargnani’s movements. Those traits of smoothness, and a sense of purpose (instead of moving with reckless abandon) will serve him well in improving his post game. The ability to really punish undersized opponents in the post, to the point where the offense runs through him at times, is a medium-term goal of mine. He already knows how to draw big plodding bigmen off the dribble from the perimeter. Increasing his confidence in his post game, when teams try to stick a 6’9 tweener on him, is the next step.

The tradeoff, as mentioned by Renato, is a training regime that emphasizes strength and quickness over bulk for the sake of being big. He needs to improve his strength, but the true behemoths (Shaq and D-How) are so naturally strong that they will always get the better end of a physical battle. Better to offer resistance on defense, but really punish them on offense with your superior quickness, and speed. Another benefit of not going overboard with bulk is an increase in endurance. Keeping pushing the ball in transition and a guy like Yao will be left sucking air during every stoppage in play.

by Yardly on Aug 24, 2009 7:43 PM EDT reply actions

Well said Yardly. I think Bosh and Bargs can be a much more dangerous combination offensively than a more traditional C/PF combo would be.

And sorry if I came off like I was taking it personal Renato — re-reading the first line of my comment made me feel like an arrogant tool — I was just trying to take the heat off of Franchise.

by Thomas Anderson on Aug 24, 2009 9:34 PM EDT reply actions

lol
Don’t worry. You don’t sound like Franchise :p

You’re much kinder to Bargs. (Yes, I’m taking a jab at him)

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com Twitter @RapHQVicious

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Aug 24, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Colangelo has given up on the fact that Bargnani can’t rebound. I mean let’s face it, there wouldn’t be a need to bring in Reggie Evans and potential rebounders in Amir Johnson if Bargnani was rebounding. They could focus their efforts on other weak spots in their game.

by Mike Klander on Aug 25, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions

Gave up?

Do you really think this is the only reason they would bring in these players?

Could BC not have learned his lesson and realized that a backup plan is a good idea (read: don’t hire Will Soloman)? Perhaps BC still envisions improvements in Bargnani’s game, but realizes that the best case scenario doesn’t always happen, and as such is prepared?

Perhaps he simply sees the advantage of having more rebounders on a team that will primarily be taking jump shots, and has had rebounding difficulties in the past (overall as well as individually).

by dhackett1565 on Aug 25, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions