RaptorsHQ Reader Collabo - Using Andrea Bargnani More Effectively

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Aug 13, 2009 8:24 AM EDT Comment 52 comments

The Toronto Raptors need a more offensively efficient Andrea Bargnani this coming season...

RaptorsHQ looks at a recent post by one of its readers and discusses the importance of a more offensively effective Andrea Bargnani...

One of the great things about the new site is that it allows readers to not only comment on our own blog entries, but to post entries themselves on a myriad of topics.

Recently, Yahoo Sports linked to one of our readers' fanposts and this morning, I thought it might be interesting to look at another; "How to Use Andrea Bargnani Better in 09-10."

Reader "bigwheeze" hypothesized that this season Raptors' fans could see a more effecient version of Andrea Bargnani thanks to Bryan Colangelo's offseason additions and went so far as to compare Andrea's current game to ex-Raptor Donyell Marshall. There is no question that there are indeed similarities in their games, particularly in terms of style of play, but what I found interesting was that Marshall, never one viewed as an All-Star candidate, actually had superior statistics in many areas!

Here's an outtake:

Andrea Bargnani's game (08-09) at times reminds me of Donyell Marshall in his second season (04-05) when we stuck him at the 3pt line in the corner (though Bargnani seems to prefer the long 3). Bargnani is clearly the more talented player offensively, but they duplicate two key similarities - great outside shot along with the ability to play C defensively.

We'll start off with a comparison of the two players.

Shot Selection (Jump/Close/Dunk/Tip)

- Marshall: 75 / 18 / 5 / 2 (61% 3PA, 15 FTA/100 FGA)
- Bargnani: 75 / 19 / 5 / 1 (30% 3PA, 28 FTA/100 FGA)

Almost exactly the same types of shot selection, though Bargnani takes half as many 3s (more 2pt jumpers) and makes it to the line twice as often as Marshall.

Scoring & Shooting Efficiency: Pts/36, FG/36, 3P%, eFG%, TS%

- Marshall: 16.3, 13.0, .416, .570, .591
- Bargnani: 17.6, 14.1, .409, .513, .559

Both shoot and score quite similar amounts, Donyell more efficiently due to his extremely high proportion of 3 point shooting. Of note is that Bargnani is already a rather efficient scorer.

Rebounding: Off. Reb %, Def. Reb %, Tot. Reb %

- Marshall: 6.4%, 23.3%, 14.7%
- Bargnani: 3.4%, 16.4%, 10.0%

Donyell, better across the board.

Other: Ast %, TO %, BLK/36, STL/36

- Marshall: 8.4%, 6.2%, 1.0, 1.2
- Bargnani: 6.4%, 11.2%, 1.4, 0.5

Surprisingly, Donyell has a higher assist % (likely because of Andrea's tendency to shoot than pass and the old Raptors' system which emphasized swinging the ball around the 3pt line - not because of any superior passing skill). He has a much lower turnover % which should occur he was primarily deployed as a spot up shooter compared with Bargnani occassionally catching the ball within the arc and being asked to create. In the defensive stats, we see Marshall with quicker hands and Bargnani as the bigger shotblocking threat.

Anyone else shocked by this analysis? The defensive statistics were to be expected I suppose but on the offensive end, really the only metrics that Andrea had a clear-cut advantage in were pure scoring!

Bigweeze goes on in his post to recommend ways for Andrea to improve his game this season, perhaps by even limiting his offensive role. I think in all likelyhood we'll see Bargnani's scoring average increase again this season but hopefully this will be attributed to more effecient scoring, not simply jacking up more shots.

However what really got me thinking was this statement by bigweeze:

The similarities are striking between the two. If Andrea manages to shore up his rebounding and defense, he should easily be able to provide what Donyell did that season, and even more if he makes a major leap.

Wow.

I think most fans would rank Bargnani light years ahead of Marshall but the stats don't lie. Right now a second-year Donyell is more valuable to this team, especially at the defensive end, then Andrea.

The key really is Bargnani's ceiling, one that appears to be much higher than Marshall's. Andrea not only needs to step up on the rebounding and defensive fronts, but also in terms of the manner in which he goes about scoring. As many bloggers have pointed out over Bargs' career, for someone who was advertised as being such a deadly offensive threat, he just wasn't that great a shooter until his final few months last season.

From bigweeze:

Becoming more efficient offensively is our ticket to becoming an elite offense. This means getting all 5 players on the court taking shots that they can drain with regularity, whether they are dunks, layups, free throws, or 3 pointers.

Again, totally agree.

As Chris Black recently pointed out, it's highly doubtful that this club is going to be locking anyone down defensively which makes it all the more important for them to become one, if not the, most efficient offensive team in the league. Orlando ran such a club last year, the caveat of course being that they were indeed one of the best defensive teams in the league. But for a team without much of an offensively skilled low-post presence (I'm not counting Howard's put-back dunks or um..."hook shots") or slasher (Hedo was probably the closest thing) , they made opponents pay time and time again with their barrage of shooters and excellent spacing.

It's imperative that the Raptors do that this year and Andrea Bargnani has to be a big piece of that puzzle.

FRANCHISE

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Interesting analysis Franchise, did you (or that gentleman) use the full year stats or Andrea’s stats since Jan? The problem I have with Andrea’s stats before Jan is that he was used during November as a 3 in a very weird system and possibly if you use Andrea’s stats once he has been given the job at the C, the comparison could be more fair. In that (long) stint Andrea’s has been putting on the board just shy of 20 points with just shy of 50% from the field. If you expect him to grow by enhanced efficiency you have to turn him into Biedrinis who just dunks which is at the very least “unrealistic”. Moreover I remember Andrea being described as one being able to make shots into his team’s offense flow rather than a ball hog. Being surrounded by more people able to pass the ball (Hedo + Marco besides Calderon ) I can see him as a scorer off of more cuts like he started to do with Bosh last year in addition to his usual repertoire. I also envision a team that swings the ball much more with generating open looks and cuts with at least 4 of 5 players who are able to either shoot or cut to the basket (the 5th being Chris whose game is a bit more static and back to the basket) and with Andrea ability to draw the opposite C out clearing space for his team mates. It should be fun to watch.

by renato on Aug 13, 2009 9:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I used the full year of stats as I didn’t want to cherry-pick any numbers. But yes, Bargnani did have very good second-half shooting numbers.

I explain in my post that Bargnani’s eFG from 3pt land was .613 (Biedrins has a .604 FG% for his career), while his eFG was .513 overall, and TS% was .559. He has the capability to continue to raise those numbers higher and higher with better shot selection. This would be in stark contrast to Allen Iverson, where asking him to put up high shooting percentages would be an exercise in futility.

by bigweeze on Aug 13, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Player killing Coach?

I was a huge fan of Sam Mitchell, I liked his abrasiveness and no-nonsense approach. You here about coach-killing players but Sam was the wrong coach for Bargnani. I’ll credit Colangelo, he got rid of the right guy.

I don’t want to set a goal in PPG for Andrea because as a focal point he has the talent to score 20 points nightly. I expect him to average close to both Bosh and Turkoglu, between 16-20 PPG. I expect the scoring to be spread around this season with 4 or possibly 5 guys with 15+ PPG. I’ll let Triano work that out. What I do expect is for him to get his equal share of touches and the continuation of his offensive contribution that he displayed last season in the Triano run offence.

Bigger key to the Raptors this season is Bargnani’s continued growth on defense and rebounding. You know, the kid has taking a beating over his defensive game and lack of rebounding, IMO becoming the easy scapegoat for the whole team’s lack of a defensive identity. As someone who has watched just about every game since he has come into the NBA, his defence has improved. Last season, you can arguably state that he was our best defender. His shot blocking was there and his footwork has caught up to the level of play. Fouls were down and even got the ref’s call a few times.
The rebounding numbers continue to kill him, yet they improved last season and will again this year. He will not average 10 a game – at least not next season, yet he doesn’t have to. We have an untraditional centre who does hang around on the outside more often than most bigs. That is the player we drafted. Its up to the coach to figure it out. To me, take the ball out of Bosh’s hands this upcoming season and have him bang inside for some boards. I don’t need him scoring 22 points a night on a losing team, we need rebounding and toughness, time for Bosh to deliver.
You know I don’t like Charlie Rosen on FOX all that much but he recently said that its time for CB4 to stop acting like a Hall-Of-Famer and to start playing like one.

by Tinmann on Aug 13, 2009 10:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

took the words outta my mouth

Tinmann, you’re bang on with your assessment of Bargs’ defensive ability….
“IMO becoming the easy scapegoat for the whole team’s lack of a defensive identity. As someone who has watched just about every game since he has come into the NBA, his defence has improved. Last season, you can arguably state that he was our best defender.”

I definitely get tired of people calling Bargs a bad defender. If you look at the biggest deficiency in defending last year it was in stopping at the initial point of attack from the PG and SG positions….we would get beaten at the top and our bigs would be forced to rotate almost instantly to compensate….in turn making them look terrible when their man got the easy basket off the dish.

I agree that Bargs is a sub par rebounding big man, but maybe that will change now that he might be able to guard his man without having to rotate to cover someone else’s on every defensive play.

Never underestimate the power of denial

by vulcanoboy on Aug 13, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"IMO becoming the easy scapegoat for the whole team’s lack of a defensive identity. As someone who has watched just about every game since he has come into the NBA, his defence has improved. Last season, you can arguably state that he was our best defender."

I think there’s definitely some merit to this statement and re-reading what I wrote, I think I should have clarified something; last year I felt Bargs took HUGE steps in terms of his one-on-one defence and by the end of the year, he was quite adept at challenging shots from his man. His help-side defense left little to be desired though and that’s an area that needs to improve.

However help-side D as we all know is sometimes more a product of communication than a player’s individual strengths or basketball acumen. Hopefully Triano and co. have the entire team focussed on this so that Bargs isn’t always left to rotate over helplessly.

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Aug 13, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Welcome to an NBA that has outlawed hand checking. You’re going to continue to see guards blowing by their man and getting into the lane or to the basket. And winning teams are going to need to employ big men that can, in fact, rotate and defend the basket.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Aug 13, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, so we have a post that’s comparing Andrea Bargnani to Donyell Marshall on the offensive end. Defensively, he’s one of the worst — if not the worst — rebounding centre in the entire League. His PER is below average. Wages of Wins seems to think he’s one of the most overrated and overpaid players in the entire League (and this is based on his rookie contract, not his HUGE extension)… And here we are pinning our hopes on our “untraditional centre” in a League where rebounding and perimeter defence have a direct correlation to winning.

I think Bargnani has a lot to prove, and needs to make a quantum leap this season to justify his place as a cornerstone of a contending Raptors squad.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Aug 13, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bargnani and Varejao are the only two players with contracts out to 2014-15. Tightening up his game in all areas is a must.

by bigweeze on Aug 13, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like different views, but I respectfully disagree. Andrea averages 6 rebounds per game, if he were to average 10 he would be one of the (now) 6 players averaging 20 and 10. So, out of these 4 rebounds, let’s say (statistically) 2 of those go to the opponent team. On good nights a team shoots 50%, so statistically you are talking about 2 points (on average) per game. Bid deal.

Do you have a perception of him being manhandled night in night out by his opponents? It does not seem like.

Statistics are useful, for certain, but you cannot have them hiding the big picture. Your “tunnel vision” kind of judgment is based upon just ONE aspect of the game. Your same tunnel vision, keeps you from noticing that, at the opposite of Donyell Marshall, Bargnani style of play pulls the opposite C away from the bucket and by that makes life easier for his other team mates (makes them better?) what about man to man D? Block shots? What about the fact that opposing C get , statistically less rebounds than their average when they play Andrea?

There is nothing wrong in wanting a center like Moses Malone, just Andrea is a different kind of player. Judging him in relation to how far he is from your perception of what he should be, is a mistake.

by renato on Aug 13, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there any data that actually supports the belief that opposing centres collect less rebounds when playing Bargnani? I’d love to see that.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Aug 13, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did read that statistic, I did not produce it so I cannot produce it again for you. I know there are sites where you can query for data and create statistics ad hoc for you but I would not know where or how as I never bothered to find out. Anyway I am not making this up.

by renato on Aug 13, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, the Raptors were 33-49 last year at -2.9 pts/game. If there are 4 rebounds that Bargnani gives away per game, those 4 rebounds (~4 points) are the difference from us being +1.1 (over .500) and -2.9.

New Orleans and Atlanta at +1.5 had 49 and 47 wins apiece. Suppose the Raptors would have won 45 games at +1.1 (rough, I know). If Bargnani grabs all 4 of those rebounds every game, our team is 12 wins better (45-37). If he grabs 2, we can roughly assume we’d be 6 wins better (39-43).

By no means am I pinning our record on Bargnani specifically, but it just goes to show what an effect a few points can have in a league where games are so closely-fought. It’s crazy to think as nearly 200 points are scored every game. But coming up even one point short of your opponent results in a loss.

by bigweeze on Aug 13, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Standing ovation for that reply!

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Aug 13, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no standing ovation, as bigweeze assumption is those four rebounds go to the opposite team which is a wrong assumption

by renato on Aug 13, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bargnani grabbing 2 of those rebounds per game (like in your post) would have probably put us from 37-39 wins (-0.9 pts).

My point is that giving up 2 points every game to the opposing team is worth far more than you realize.

Assuming a team that is 0.0 pts/game is .500 (41-41), can you start to see the value of a few extra points per game? Over the regular season, Dallas was +2.0 pts/game and went 50-32. New Orleans was +1.5 and went 49-33.

Take a look here to see the full league with final records and point differentials. It seems that each pt you gain in differential translates to approximately 3 wins over the regular season.

by bigweeze on Aug 13, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about the fact that opposing C get statistically less rebounds than their average when they play Andrea?

It doesn’t matter specifically which opposing player grabs the rebound on the other team – we care about what team gets the ball. What we want to see is for the Raptors’ rebound percentage close when Bargnani is On Court (24.9% Offensive, 71.8% Defensive) vs. Off Court * (27.7% Offensive, 76.7% Defensive). If you add the #s together (which is close enough), you get the Raps pulling down 96.7% of rebounds with Bargs vs. 104.4% of rebounds without him – quite the margin.

The off-court #s I calculated myself based on Bargnani playing 61% of minutes, and the Raptors’ team rebounding of 26%, 73.7%.

by bigweeze on Aug 13, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unlike my colleagues, I’m more of Bargnani fan. My problem with those stats calculated are that they are over the full year, especially when you’re calculating the on court vs off court in this case, and for the first half of last year, Bargnani was pretty terrible from a rebounding perspective thanks to playing out of position and vs the team wise, since Jermaine O’Neal was in the lineup and Bargnani backed up him. It would be better to see when Jermaine was out of the lineup, but slicing stats like that is very tricky, especially since last year there were so many changes involved.

And you can’t add those percentages like that. How do you pull down over 100% of the rebounds? How can you just calculate that Bargnani played 61% of the minutes and then you just skew the percentages that way to calculate the efficiency of the team while he’s on the court vs off the court? It’s not an accurate picture and therefore, the stats get tainted.

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Aug 13, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

These stats are for the Raptors while Bargnani is on the court vs. off the court. This is not about Bargnani’s rebounding specifically, this is about the Raptors as a team when he plays/doesn’t play.

Sorry, that would be 100% of 200%. Shots by Toronto (100%) + shots against Toronto (100%) = 200%. Divide by 2 if you like. It’s a little rough to just add the numbers together, but fine for our purposes.

This of course depends largely who is on the court with Bargnani and who is not, who replaces Bargnani and who is on the court when he is on the bench. But it does seem to confirm what everyone’s general suspicion is – Bargnani is hurting the team with his lack of rebounding.

by bigweeze on Aug 13, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What I wish for (and I don’t think it’s possible) is to get a real breakdown after the O’Neal trade, or at least after Sam Mitchell was fired. I believe that about 30% of his stats were tainted last year thanks to a number of factors

If those stats prove out to what everyone is saying, then I’ll be more inclined to agree. I’m not saying he doesn’t need to improve on his rebounding, but placing the blame squarely at his feet bothers me quite a bit. He does need to keep getting better at releasing his man and grabbing the ball when he can.

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Aug 13, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wages of Wins also has Jamario Moon as the 14th most underpaid player last year.

by siggian on Aug 13, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The facts are: Moon was not paid much last season, and he was an effective player. I know the opinion of him in Toronto gets distorted based on the way he was used. But he rebounds, blocks shots, gets steals, etc. He’s going to look good next season coming off the bench for Cleveland. Whereas, he doesn’t look as good when you’re forced to start the guy.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Aug 13, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not a Jamario hater. I agree he was an effective player and he was badly miscast as a starter. But that’s sort of my point too. Jamario seems to have the ability to do things that lead to statistics but I’m not so sure he was as effective as those statistics indicate. For example, he would have a block or two in a game but he’d also have a number of moments where he’d fall for a pump fake and look terrible doing so. The former is easier to count and the latter is tougher (and I agree not necessarily all of his fault either.)

by siggian on Aug 13, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the pump fakes are actually the thing that resonates the most with Raptors fans when they recall the Jamario Moon era. Biting repeatedly on pump fakes is just bad basketball, and one of Moon’s biggest flaws (beyond a lack of strength).

That being said, he still did a lot of things well.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Aug 13, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that, along with his inability to cover outside shooters, inability to adjust to different player’s offensive skill sets, his inability to rebound in traffic, and inability to take it to the rim constantly all were what made him a pretty bad player.

Sorry, but there’s no way I’m going to rewrite history on Moon. Everyone gave him way too much slack thanks to his contract, but at the end of the day, he was a soft, less talented Vince Carter. Yup, I said it.

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Aug 13, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"less talented"

Read: Infinitely less talented.

by dhackett1565 on Aug 13, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think I should have clarified that it was the injury prone, jump shooting, unable to get to the free throw line, unable to defend Vince Carter that we saw in the final two years that I was referring to.

God, what a waste of talent

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Aug 13, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comparing a serviceable bench player to a former All-Star? I think maybe an apples to apples comparison (Moon vs., say, Pietrus) would be more valuable.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Aug 13, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think so. Both were gifted athletes who didn’t use their abilities to their fullest. One was a former all-star who mailed it in when the team wasn’t doing good or he lost interest. The other gave us about two months of athleticism before mailing it in thanks to laziness and a low basketball IQ. Neither used their gifts. Both wanted to just bomb from the outside. Both didn’t want to get to the line.

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Aug 14, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Vince gets a bad rap.

He did quite well to carry us for a number of years before he quit. We only had one other all-star – AD, an injury replacement if my memory is right. After picking up numerous injuries and carrying the franchise on his shoulders with little help in sight, I can understand why he would quit. CB4 was too little, too late for Vince – unfortunate (perhaps he didn’t realize what we had). There are other complications with his (ex?)wife who is a doctor – working in Canada probably wasn’t her dream.

Now, some have questioned his commitment to conditioning (despite being able to play a heavy minute-load). And it’s clear he’s not a type A leader (Momma’s boy), but not everyone is like Lebron, Kobe, KG. Not everyone can be the best.

I consider Vince to be similar as Ray Allen. Both have had their spurts of success between what is mostly failure. Only difference is Allen’s luck to be dealt to Boston – Vince is getting his turn on Orlando now. Grant Hill was supposedly the second coming at one point as well.

by bigweeze on Aug 13, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I liked his return to New Jersey for the little while, and he could score in spurts at times. But those final years where he was anemic from the paint and line just really put a horrid taste in my mouth. In that respect, Moon conjures up a lot of similarities.

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Aug 14, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He carried the Raptors – although they did have a fantastic run to the playoffs one year after he got hurt – but he hit a ceiling. Carter wants the game to be easy. He’d like to win, but not if it’s going to be hard. He can get his numbers on talent, and leave the hard work for somebody else.

It showed the most when Mitchell came in and started benching Carter and Rose during fourth quarters. Even Rose had the pride to be upset, but Carter didn’t really seem to mind. Fourth quarter minutes are hard.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Aug 14, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he had checked out at least the year prior to that (and the trade), more likely two.

For a while I thought he had lost something because of the injuries, but in hindsight I began to realize it actually had more to do with his effort.

by bigweeze on Aug 14, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I won’t deny that at one time he was amazing. I don’t know if I’d watch the Raptors today if it hadn’t been for Carter – I didn’t watch them beforehand.

I doubt it’s easy to give your all every minute and accept the physical punishment that comes with playing hard – and yet still face the fact that you might lose despite those efforts. But that’s the difference between Carter and less talented but superior players.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Aug 14, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Definitely gotta give respect to Lebron when his most consistent second banana over the past few years has been Anderson Varejao.

by bigweeze on Aug 14, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bigweeze, I too thought that his play went downhill because of his knee injury woes. I even remember an article in one of the Toronto papers, where his knee specialist came out and said that VC’s knee was so wonky that he was one dunk away from ending his career. I just can’t recall the exact issue.

We realized soon afterward that he just didn’t have his heart in it anymore.

by Assistant GM on Aug 15, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t really buy into that because the way they did it is very rough.

The players who are rated lower have an easier time showing up than those rated higher, because there is less separating players at the bottom end. There’s a much bigger difference between being rated #5/#1 than #105/#101. But using subtraction only spits out a difference of 4 for each.

by bigweeze on Aug 13, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wish we could have kept moon and parker for our bench…

by axl t on Aug 13, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Me too…in those roles they would have played to their strengths which is unfortunately what I think we’ll see with the Cavs this year…

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Aug 13, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amen

The fact that Jamario was so highly rated says all you need to know about these “advanced” statistics.

by RaptorsAddict on Aug 14, 2009 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you’ve been watching many of the GIAHs they’ve been showing on rapstv, bargs sure looks like a world’s-better player than donyell marshall. Of course they’re edited to show the good stuff.

His repetoire of moves, handle, quick release, remind me more of a lamar odom than DM who really wasn’t that mobile at all.

I use odom as an example, because bargs also is known for the full-game brain freeze.

by axl t on Aug 13, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bargnani is definitely a better offensive player than Donyell. His game is more perimeter-oriented where it is easier for him to display that skill, but don’t discount Donyell – he could put the ball in the hoop down low quite well.

Anyhow, part of the point is that better players are not necessarily more effective players depending on the roles you put them in. We can change Andrea’s role to make him extremely successful offensively without placing a huge load on his shoulders. This theoretically leaves him more energy to do other things under our own hoop.

by bigweeze on Aug 13, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defensive Stance

You being relatively new here – I nee to know – do you actually buy into those states from Wages of Wins?
Just need to know with whom I’m dealing with.

by Tinmann on Aug 13, 2009 5:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’ll speak for D Stance here to say that we both do…although not 100 percent. We all know that Jamario’s stats looked better than his real production, however I don’t think he was as bad as fans thought either.

The harsh reality is that on a good team, Moon can be a very productive role player. However on an overrated Raptors’ team last season, he was forced to play a much bigger role than he should have played. Look at the other options Mitchell/Triano had! Adams? Kapono? Then later guys like Banks and Douby? It was essentially “play Jamario or play the D League crew.”

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Aug 13, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I admit I do love the Wages of Wins — but view it more like a tool in a toolbox as opposed to the be all and end all solution. I look at the Wages of Wins info in combination with a lot of other factors.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Aug 13, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They should dial the emphasis on rebounds down a little bit.

I do think it’s a pretty solid system with a smart guy behind it. But when you spit out Jason Kidd, Carlos Boozer and Marcus Camby as elites at their positions (largely because of rebounding), something is in error.

I looked at his posts on the O’Neal/Ford trade.
- about the Pacers: “strong candidates to return to the post-season in 2009”.
- whether the Raptors’ trade would be a success: “It probably won’t be, but it might look like one if the team wins more than 41 games in 2008-09.”

by bigweeze on Aug 14, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Donyell Marshall was drafted 1994 by MIN

I wouldn’t put so much stock in comparing a third year Bargnani to a 10 year veteran like Marshall (in 2004/5). Based on his numbers, Marshall had just started his long slow ride towards retirement (except teams just keep paying him?)

In Marshall’s 2nd season in Toronto (his 10th) – Marshall averaged 11.5 & 6.6. Skipping the fancy, and very well done analysis, I believe Bargs will be doing considerably better than 11.5 & 6.6 this season. I doubt his development as a player is over.

by sbrother on Aug 14, 2009 2:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just to add

I will always go back to that ESPN poll with NBA GM’s prior to Baegnani’s draft. The main thing I remember is a question asked
“who would be the best players five years from now” and Bargnani was the first choice of a substantial number of the GM’s. Well, we are starting year 4, and OK, Branden Roy is probably out in front but I see AB continuing to close that gap. Wages of WIN be damned!

by Tinmann on Aug 14, 2009 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Probably? Definitely. Roy is a consensus max player while some people consider Bargnani overpaid at 10m/yr.

by bigweeze on Aug 14, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Roy is head and shoulders above anyone from that draft class.

Bargnani also has to close the gap between himself and LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo, Paul Millsap and Rudy Gay.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Aug 14, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Folks in Chicago aren’t that high on Aldridge,t the C’s shopping Rondo? Milsap was on the block and Rudy Gay?

DS -I think you have a case of “the grass being greener on the other side”

by Tinmann on Aug 14, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you’re confusing LaMarcus Aldridge with the Bulls’ Tyrus Thomas.

The C’s might’ve been rumoured to be shopping Rondo — but he averaged damn near a triple double in the playoffs.

And what block was Millsap on? Utah just matched his free agent offer sheet from Portland.

The grass isn’t greener on the other side. I was just pointing out a handful of players from the same draft class who have outperformed Bargnani.

by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Aug 14, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Tinmann…I remember the poll as well, but it was on NBA.com. If I recall correctly, 46% of the GM’s thought that Bargs would be the best player in five years. At least it goes to show you that it wasn’t just BC and Gheradini that were high on Bargs because of his heritage.

by Assistant GM on Aug 15, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs