Is There Magic in the 2009-10 Toronto Raptors?
With Hedo Turkoglu's move to Toronto, many Raptors' fans are wondering if this year's incarnation of the Dinos will look a lot like last year's version of the Orlando Magic. Franchises weighs in...
In the wake of what appears to be yet another big off-season trade, it appears that economy be damned, a lot of teams aren't content to sit on the sidelines of trade activity this summer.
The Orlando Magic have maybe been the most active team this off-season despite going all the way to the NBA Finals last year.
And the Toronto Raptors have been no slouches themselves in the personnel moves department, almost matching the Magic transaction for transaction.
In fact last season before the Orlando Magic really took off in the standings, many Raptors fans, myself included, compared Orlando to Toronto and vice versa. This was especially true once Toronto acquired Shawn Marion.
Both teams relied on a dominant post player (albeit in different fashions) and essentially surrounded them with a collection of skilled jump shooters and multi-faceted talents like the aforementioned Marion and Turkoglu. I even went so far as to compare Andrea Bargnani to Rashard Lewis after watching Lewis in the playoffs. Not that Andrea was at the same level as Lewis production-wise, but that there were some very large similarities in their games and that perhaps Lewis represented a ceiling of sorts for Il Mago.
There was never any question that Orlando had the superior talent in this comparison though, to the point that I believe I referred to the Raps as the Magic version 1.0.
And while that's possibly even moreso the case now that the Magic have re-loaded this off-season, it's inevitable now that Hedo has joined "version 1.0" of his former club, that comparisons would abound.
But just how similar now are these two clubs?
Jameer Nelson is certainly effective running an offence in the half-court and has greatly improved his shooting skills, but I don't think anyone would confuse he and Jose.
And likewise Bosh and Howard can both dominate games, but they tend to do so in very different fashions.
However there are indeed similarities between the two clubs from individual players to the style of play; both favouring an offense that is dominated by pick-and-roll scenarios and that likes to create mismatches one-on-one.
Taking a look at last year's statistics courtesy of 82games.com, we see more similarities between the two teams, especially in terms of "shooting details."
For Toronto:
Shooting Details
| 70% | .452 | 63% | 51.8 | 64% | .463 | 65% | 49.7 | ||
| 23% | .536 | 50% | 19.8 | 28% | .539 | 47% | 25.2 | ||
| 5% | .887 | 75% | 7.7 | 6% | .906 | 80% | 8.4 | ||
| 2% | .423 | 0% | 1.1 | 2% | .546 | 0% | 1.7 | ||
| 100% | .494 | 60% | 80.3 | 100% | .511 | 59% | 85.0 | ||
And for Orlando:
Shooting Details
| 66% | .482 | 60% | 49.7 | 69% | .424 | 52% | 48.2 | ||
| 27% | .529 | 42% | 22.5 | 26% | .515 | 45% | 22.1 | ||
| 5% | .939 | 67% | 8.0 | 4% | .921 | 73% | 5.7 | ||
| 1% | .532 | 0% | 1.2 | 2% | .385 | 0% | 1.0 | ||
| 100% | .520 | 54% | 81.4 | 100% | .466 | 51% | 77.0 | ||
Both teams relied quite heavily on jump shots and surprisingly, even with Howard's brute force down low, dunks made up the same percentage of Orlando's offense as Toronto's. The key difference upon eyeballing these stats is that even though the Magic made jump shooting 4% less of their offense, they were more efficient with those shots than were the Raptors.
Also interesting from 82games.com in terms of the offensive similarity between these clubs - shot clock usage. Toronto and Orlando showed almost equal propensity to take the bulk of their shots at certain times during that crucial 24-second period:
Toronto:
Shot Clock Usage
| 36% | .521 | 59% | 30.8 | 36% | .559 | 55% | 33.0 | ||
| 28% | .474 | 62% | 21.9 | 26% | .496 | 63% | 21.8 | ||
| 23% | .512 | 61% | 19.5 | 22% | .506 | 63% | 18.9 | ||
| 12% | .422 | 57% | 8.0 | 16% | .432 | 60% | 11.3 | ||
Orlando:
Shot Clock Usage
| 37% | .567 | 51% | 32.5 | 36% | .499 | 47% | 30.0 | ||
| 28% | .508 | 54% | 22.4 | 27% | .453 | 56% | 20.0 | ||
| 23% | .492 | 57% | 17.6 | 23% | .447 | 52% | 17.4 | ||
| 13% | .461 | 62% | 9.0 | 14% | .433 | 48% | 9.7 | ||
Again, Orlando was more efficient for the most part in terms of making the shots they took, but I think from these offensive stats we see two teams that like to employ similar offensive tactics.
It's on the defensive end where the clubs really showed key differences.
Without going into too many more stats, a quick look at both clubs defensive efficiency scores to end the season sums things up pretty well.
Toronto finished 22nd out of the league's 30 teams in defensive rating.
Orlando?
Oh...they finished first.
The hope for Raptors fans of course is that with Iavaroni on board, and some upgrades in the personnel department, the Dinos can at least climb up into the league's mid-level in terms of defensive ranking. For all the offensive similarities between the Magic and Raps, I'd argue that until this occurs, it's a bit pointless to compare the two clubs.
However that doesn't mean that Bosh vs. Howard, Hedo vs. his former club, and the Polish Hammer vs. the Slovenian Sabre won't make for some interesting story lines this coming season.
And that's not even factoring in former Raptor Vince Carter into the equation.
It's going to be interesting enough to see his fit with a potential NBA Championship contending team, let alone any one-on-one battles that he may have with DeMar DeRozan, the player who has already taken to being called the new "Air Canada."
I'm guessing the folks at RaptorsTV are prepping the VC-DD comparison footage already...
FRANCHISE
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19 comments
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Comments
Tony Allen?
Sorry Unrelated to the Orlando Story but…
How would Tony Allen look on our bench?
A bench with Jack, Allen, Wright, Evans and Rasho looks down right nasty.
And this works financialy..
Marquis Daniels to Boston, Tony Allen to Toronto (I’d try to get a 2010 or 2011 second round pick too), Ukic and O’Bryant to Pacers.
Frees up one roster spot, cough…Pops…cough, and they can still sign Delfino to a one year 4.5mil deal with his bird rights.
Tony Allen and his 2.5mil contract comes of the books next summer.
by WinnipegRaptorFan on Jul 28, 2009 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting question – I saw that note this morning and was thinking the same thing – would it be possible to bring him here? He’s not a great offensive player obviously and has a checkered past…but defensively I’d rather play him over George etc…
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jul 28, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tony Allen
The last thing the Rap’s need is a 6’4 SG. Find a 6’7/8 SF who can score, defend, and rebound, not named Delfino, and them you have something.
by Johnn19 on Jul 28, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Raps acquired Tony Allen I’d rather Jay Triano started him.
TA has a terrible jump shot but if he’s playing alongside Jose, Hedo, Bosh and Bargnani, that weakness will be limited. I think his weakness with his shot is more of a liability when playing alongside guys like Evans or Rasho, or DeRozan or Jack, he’d be better off alongside the best shooters the Raptors have. Plus, Allen would be by far the best defensive player on the Raptors so he’d add considerable value there and fills a huge hole for the Raps.
I think Tony Allen would be a good piece of next year’s puzzle.
by NBR on Jul 28, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Allen’s decision-making is terrible too though so that would make me pause about him starting. You could argue that he’s a Dahntay Jones type defender/athlete so in that sense him starting at the two has some sanity to it. However he’s not as a good a ball-handler and is a bit of a turnover machine, not something I necessarily want in my starting line-up.
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jul 28, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that I have a tough time seeing him as a starter…but on the other hand we have no scoring coming of the bench so there could be some sense in starting Allen and bringing Derozan/Delfino off the bench. I see Allen as a 15 minute a game, shut down, get under your skin, pest defender, who averages 8pts, 3assts, 2stl a game, but does all the dirty stuff. All this said, he’s still a Celtic and who knows if BC and Toronto are involved in any discussions.
6’7/8 SF who can score, defend and rebound…hmmm..Lebron James..not many others out there, let alone those that are available.
by WinnipegRaptorFan on Jul 28, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post
Looking at the shot-timing stats, however, I do notice that the defensive numbers are very similar to the offensive numbers. Can we really distinguish the offensive pattern of Orlando and Toronto from the league average to an extent where they’re similar to each other and different from the rest?
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jul 28, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I noticed that too – you’d think from these two examples that most teams probably take shots in a similar fashion favouring attempts early in the clock. I ran out of time but it might be interesting therefore to see what some of the other elite teams from last year did in those particular time frames, from percentage of shots taken to efficiency.
Also, I’d like to look a bit closer at Hedo’s impact shifting from Orlando to Toronto, especially in terms of offensive execution via the pick-and-roll.
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jul 28, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defensive question, will Iavaroni earn his money, as first specialist on "D"???
Franchise, a long way to go from 22nd (Toronto) to 1st (Orlando). Raps will score, but defense will tell where they will go in the East. Might be interesting to rank the east in defensive rating, as insight as to what they need to do to finish where, in the playoffs.
by Johnn19 on Jul 28, 2009 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
LA Lakers:
Shooting Details:
Offense
Shot Att. eFG% Ast Pts
Jump 63% .460 60% 49.6
Close 28% .541 50% 25.5
Dunk 7% .936 74% 10.7
Tips 2% .405 0% 1.6
All 100% .513 58% 87.3
Defense
Att. eFG% Ast Pts
64% .434 65% 46.1
28% .526 53% 24.9
6% .916 74% 9.0
2% .504 0% 1.5
100% .490 61% 81.5
Shot Clock Usage
Offense
Secs. Att. eFG% Ast Pts
0-10 40% .557 54% 37.7
11-15 28% .505 67% 24.1
16-20 21% .496 57% 18.0
21+ 11% .404 52% 7.4
Defense
Att. eFG% Ast Pts
40% .546 56% 35.9
24% .468 63% 19.0
22% .448 66% 16.6
14% .434 65% 10.0
by Ustation on Jul 28, 2009 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Memphis
Offense
Shot Att. eFG% Ast Pts
Jump 63% .440 51% 42.8
Close 28% .483 41% 20.9
Dunk 7% .916 69% 9.9
Tips 2% .456 0% 1.1
All 100% .486 50% 74.7
Defense
Shot Att. eFG% Ast Pts
Jump 65% .454 62% 46.0
Close 27% .568 47% 24.0
Dunk 6% .930 73% 8.8
Tips 2% .552 0% 1.4
All 100% .515 57% 80.1
Shot clock
Offense
Secs. Att. eFG% Ast Pts
0-10 33% .526 49% 27.1
11-15 25% .495 51% 18.8
16-20 25% .444 49% 17.2
21+ 17% .453 49% 11.6
Defense
Secs. Att. eFG% Ast Pts
0-10 36% .549 52% 31.0
11-15 26% .501 62% 20.4
16-20 24% .527 61% 19.3
21+ 14% .436 58% 9.5
by Ustation on Jul 28, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Shot selection
It’s funny, I had this same discussion about a year ago and it surprised a lot of people I talked to that shot selection was practically the same for all teams not matter what the make up was. The “run&gunners” / “half-courters” / “Twin-Towers” / “Jump-shooters” all had very small percentage differences.. It always breaks down into something like:
Jump Shot: 63% – 70%
Close: 24% – 30%
Dunk: 3% – 8%
Tip: 1% – 3%
All things considered, those are very low variances, and surprisingly teams with true Bigs generally don’t get as many “team dunks” as one would think. The biggest factor to winning teams is “FG% made vs allowed”. Makes sense.
by Ustation on Jul 28, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wow neat.. didn’t even notice, the shot selection for Lakers and Griz were exactly the same. Only diff is with the %s.
by Ustation on Jul 28, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the stats breakdown Ustation, interesting to see things laid out like that. I’d argue though that over the course of a game, a 7% difference in jump shots taken (Toronto’s difference vs the Lakers) is a fairly significant difference. However it probably bears a more thorough look, especially because as you pointed out, it’s one thing to shoot more jumpers if you’re hitting them. It’s another if you’re jacking up low percentage shots from the perimeter when you should be trying to get to the line.
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jul 28, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that 7% can be a fairly significant difference, however that’s closer to the extreme ends and at the end of the day what surprised me the most is that, that translates to only about 4-5 more jumpshots per game (based on an avg of about 75 Attempts per game) with a team that is known to take more Js vs a team with an Inside presence.
I would have thought it was a much bigger difference than that and it certainly feels like more.
by Ustation on Jul 28, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that 7% is HUGE in my mind. And I think for most of us avid raptor fans this isn’t news. How many times were you sitting at home watching TV yelling at, Moon, Bosh, Parker, Bargs to take it to the rim.
by WinnipegRaptorFan on Jul 28, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunks
That’s is surprising that the Magic and Raptors have the same percentage of dunks, it seems like D12 throws it down every time he touches the ball, and it’s hard to remember practically any dunks from Raptors last year, I guess rocking the rim counts the same as just squeezing it in.
As for defense, i guess it helps to have a 6-11, 40 inch vertical, solid muscle, shot blocking machine in the middle, who knew?
by CalexanderJ on Jul 28, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Moon the most underrated player in the nba 2008/09
Jamario Moon the most underated player in the NBA last year. Got to give props to BC, what a find by Colangelo and Sam. I am really happy for Jamario and I hope with LBJ feeding him the ball he will score a lot more and get to the rim a lot more. Its a good thing when a guy like Jamario who has been around finally make it. This is still a feel good story and I am happy Jamario got a contract out of it. I wish him all the best in Cleveland he was one of my boys when he was with the Raps and I still like him. Just hope he gets over his fear of going to the rack…lol but practising with the King everyday will sure help his confidence because he did not have that kind of fearless player in Toronto. Just hoping someone can sign Joey soon. ………raps4life
by raps4life on Jul 28, 2009 6:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs


















