Finishing Fourth
by RaptorsHQ - Howland on Jul 27, 2009 6:36 AM EDT
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Whether it is at work, at dinner parties or just out and about I have found myself talking Raptors ball a lot lately. There seems to be some genuine excitement in the city about this team. The excitement is not misplaced, but what will it take for the Raps not to disappoint?
We can all agree that BC has done a pretty darn good job changing this team. With the additions of Hedo, Jack, Rasho, Wright, George and DeRozan he has completely remade the roster and addressed most of the weaknesses that were so readily apparent last season.
This team definitely has more grit and toughness, it's deeper, and finally there is a guy who can create off the bounce and be (hopefully?) the clutch scorer this team has been desperate for.
There is reason to be excited. As of today, the debate amongst readers is how high a seed the Raps can grab this season rather than wondering if the playoffs are a possibility. There is a sense of optimism in the air.
I am also excited about the season. Late last year recapping games became more of a chore than anything else. The fans were down and out and all the while we were forced to listen about how that Raptors team with Marion might be able to turn things around. It was a bit of a farce. This year the Raps should be competitive and that will make for covering this team a lot more enjoyable.
My expectations are tempered however. The top three teams in the East are absolutely stacked. The Celtics, Cavs and Magic will undoubtedly be the class of the East and each of them will be entering into the season with a "Finals or bust" mentality. Toronto, despite all the recent moves, is just not there yet.
That's not to say the Raps can't have a very successful 2009/2010 season, but the margin for error is small. We have seen recent Raptors teams play good ball all year and then get knocked out in the first round. Been there and done that. This team will be looking to go deeper into the second season. We all know BC didn't make these moves to see this team make the playoffs and then in turn make a quick exit. I fear however, that this will be the result should the Raps not manage to secure at least the fifth seed in the East. This year the sixth seed won't be any better than the seventh or the eighth...they all result in a first round match-up with one of those top three teams. They will all result in a disappointing ending to the season.
There will be a number of teams fighting for that fourth spot. Finishing fourth will not only ensure avoiding a dreaded first round match-up with the elite but it also means home court advantage. Given how crazed Raps fans are come playoff time this advantage can't be overvalued.
Toronto will likely find itself in dead heat race with that second tier of teams including Atlanta, Washington and depending on an Odom/Boozer acquisition, the Heat. All of these teams will be battling for that precious fourth spot and it will be the games against these teams that will really capture my interest come the fall.
So the goal for this season is a simple one...place fourth. It doesn't sound too lofty a goal but it is not something that will be obtained easily. A fifth place finish wouldn't be the end of the world but the goal has to be four. Should they finish 6-8 it doesn't take a crystal ball to see what the result is likely to be. Do the Raps have enough to challenge for it? To do so would require a pretty big leap based on last year's results. Based on our poll from last week however, the answer seems to be yes.
Hopefully that optimism is a sign of things to come.
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Could be a good year
There are so many “ifs”. If they stay healthy. If they move the ball. If they play defence. if they have chemistry. One thing I hope does not happen, is that they revert back to always dumping the ball into Bosh and standing around watching. With the tools they now have , Bosh needs to be part of the offence not “the” offence. Responsibility for sucess now shifts to Triano
A couple more ifs
I have the same worries rapt, the team has to run more, move the ball better, and the scoring needs to be shared better. Triano is huge this year. Last year we said if Calderon goes down we’ll be life and death to make the playoffs, this year, if Triano ‘loses the team’ or just plain turns out to be a dud, we’re in trouble.
plus
If bargnani has indeed turned the corner.
If our bigs stay healthy.
Although the Celtics, Cavs and Magic are stacked, and there is clear seperation to the next group of teams that are expected to compete for the 4th/5th seeds to avoid them in the first round, keep in mind that this is why they play the games. Paper is worth jack if the Celtics lose a couple of their big three for an extended time due to injuries, and even Rasheed is not a guarantee to stay healthy as he will be 35 when the season starts.
Additionally, with the rosters changing so much with the Raps, and with other Eastern teams, we will have a much better idea of where the Raps and our competition stands 30 games into the season, as certain teams will gel better than others.
The Raps finishing 4th is the supposed ceiling for even the most optimistic prognosticators, but who is to say that one of the top 3 will not end up there and the Raps can move up? I am putting the 33 wins behind me as the roster is totally revamped, Calderon is healthy, our rookie will be able to contribute in a much needed position, we have Turk, newfounded depth while getting rid of most of the deadwood (and yes, Mr. Banks, unfortunately you and your bad attitude will never even see the light of day on our roster but we could not even trade you for a slice of Pizza Pizza), plus the roster is set outside of Bosh for years to come.
Do not understimate Triano having a full training camp to work on our deficiencies i.e. rebounding and perimeter defense since during the season NBA labour laws limit practice time, plus teams are playing so many games and due to travel time it is hard to conduct effective practices.
The Raps homecourt will once again be a huge factor that was lost last year, and that alone will translate into a few extra W’s at least. Our fans can be vocal and a huge factor in bringing out the best in our roster.
Do I have rose coloured glasses – probably, but hey, it’s the end of July, and it is my right to do so.
by briangerstein.com on Jul 27, 2009 7:22 AM EDT reply actions
The coaching staff is one thing that we’re all counting on to make changes so it’ll be interesting to see how that works out. This team needs to be conditioned properly and everyone just needs to be expected to work that much harder since the Raptors now have a fairly fast team coupled with a remade coaching staff. For now, I wonder how quickly this group will gel together and who that final signing will be.
Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com
by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Jul 27, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Things that make you go hmmmmm....
I am a Celtics fan at heart since the early 80’s…. but closely follow and cheer for the Raps…. I hope the Raps finish 3/4…. but something inside me just feels we (fans) are blowing them up with our “we’ve got a good team this year” attitude….
PG play will be a strength…. but if JC or JJ go down early…. are we still expecting Ukic/Douby to play 12-20 mins. a night of quality bball?? Oops, I forgot about Banks…
Shooting Guard…. our lives will depend on a rookie, a player who would rather be at the point and a 2nd – 3rd stringer depending on what team he is with….
Small Forward…. Turks is a GREAT pick-up but where is the quality behind him? And PLEASE do not think Delfino is quality for 2 or 3 position…. if he was that good, why wouldn’t other teams be actually more interested?? I’d much rather have Barnes on the cheap…
Power F – another strongly manned position… both starter (obviously) and back-up… but the “top 3 teams” are also strongly manned at this position… perhaps Cle. is the weakest… perhaps…
Center – I voted for AB being overrated… he had a nice scoring touch at the mid to end of the season… on a bad team.. .playing major minutes…. I love Rasho… but again, the C position is also manned by some dominant big men…. Howard, Perkins, Sheed, Shaq, Big Z, etc… and that’s just the top 3 teams….
My guess is this sounds negative….. but I think perhaps we need to have some realism and reverse psychology for this upcoming season…. don’t expect the 3-5 seed…. something more realistic like 6-7…
and if the Raps are good enough for the 3-5 seeds, than we will be pleasantly surprised, rather than let down….
?
The teams the Raps will be competing with for the 4-5 spots are who you should be comparing them to.
C: Remove Howard, Perkins, Sheed, Shaq, etc from the list, and how many centres in the east do you place above Bargs in terms of total production?
SF: As for Delfino… he’s made it clear that he wants 5 million a year, and the Raps are the only team that would offer that, as they are stuck with him or min contract players. As such, why would any other GM be interested if Delf has already turned down 4 million?
SF/SG: Wright played starting minutes for a pretty good Dallas club last year, establishing himself as a solid defender at the 2 and 3. Should be good for a few minutes at each position, don’t you think?
SG: “a player who would rather be at the point” —> perhaps, but he was actually more effective at the 2 for Indiana last year. The 2 is pretty solid, with Jack, Derozan, Wright and poten tially Delfino splitting time there, with the leftovers filling in at the 3 (as Wright, Delfino, and possibly Derozan can play both positions).
PF: the top three teams are strongly manned here? With the signing of Bass, Lewis will play at the 3, and Bass is kind of unproven as a starter. KG is looking good, unless he goes down to injury (which he did last year, and… he’s another year older), and Rasheed seemed a little… off last year. Cleveland??? I guess you’ve got Varejao… who’s a good banger, but not much behind him, unless they go small and play LBJ at the 4.
Hey – better yet, we should expect the team to place last – that way another lottery visit will seem great! Let’s expect the team to leave the city – that way if we finish last but stay here, it’ll be awesome!
I’m all for tempering expectations, but I like to have a reason to do so.
by dhackett1565 on Jul 27, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
How about Horford? Okafor? Lopez? Miller? You could argue all of those names have been better than Bargnani has been. Get a grip people. He had a few good months and there is some promise there but he is hardly an elite centre yet.
Wow, really? I can maybe agree about Lopez from a rebounding standard, but he about out hustles everyone… But it’s his only claim to fame. Can’t score, can’t really defend unless it’s all about banging.
And the rest of them, I’d say they’re in a similar league as Bargnani, but I just don’t see them as having a unique skill set like Bargnani does, not are they as well rounded. They’re all certainly not as young. Bargnani’s not a top level center yet, but he’s hardly a piddling middle-of-the-road center either.
Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com
by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Jul 28, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
You would take Perkins over Bargnani?
You are joking right? Perkins the pylon over Bargnani? You could argue about Sheed in his prime and just about help defense. Sometimes I really wish you guys got the chance to get Oden the bust and you would be happy to get 3 points and 5 fouls all season long
Renato
Perkins has a championship ring. Do you really believe Bargnani will ever get one? Besides, Perkins is a true centre not a 2 guard in a centres body. Bargnani has unique skill sets that make him a difficult match up but don’t dis good solid centres without having anything other than Raptor love to back it up.
McGateway,
I get from your answer you would rather have Perkins, and at the end the important thing is to be happy. I also understand, than you think he was instrumental to the Celts earning their ring. It is obvious at this point you would not be able to do a simple swap with the Celts, you should have to add a filler, to bridge the skill gap and cash considerations as a sweetener. Bargnani will be on his rookie contract next year, so salaries should not be all that different. Please make sure, when you knock the Celtics door with that proposal, to have your hat in your hands and never look straight in Ainge’s eyes, as a sign of deference; it is humiliating, I know, but at the end, if you succeed, you would come out with a steal………
OMG
All I am saying is that Perkins right this minute is a better NBA centre than Bargnani. I Know Bargnani might be a better player in the long run but right now he is not. Calling Perkins a pylon when Bargnani can barely provide adequate defense is simply silly. Perkins may not have been the main cog on the championship team but he was hardly sitting in street clothes either. The issue raised by the original poster was what centre is better than bargnani in the east. Ultimately I think it is easier to name the centres who are worse right now as Bargnani has shown some signs that he is getting there.
I think Perkins shows a different flavour than Bargnani. The “Two guard in a Center’s body” is really inadequate to describe Bargnani’s game in my opinion. He’s starting to show that he has the strength to defend some of the larger centers in the league (but not the truly powerful ones like Dwight Howard) while also improving his defense against shorter, faster players. I mentioned it the other day on my Twitter Feed that watching the Game in an Hour segments on Raptors TV lately has made me really appreciate his ability to back peddle against the faster people in the league while still able to go for a block. You just never see that in any center out there.
And I know his rebounding is still a big issue with most people. Heck, I think he’d say it himself. But he does an adequate job at least fighting for his position most of the time. It’s just that I think people focus too much on just this one aspect of his game, and not enough on other benefits we receive from his unique body structure.
Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com
by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Jul 28, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I believe Bargnani is a very good man to man defender, I saw him going under just twice, once against Shaq and another against Zidrunas Izgausas (really not sure his last name spelling). His defence against Howard was very, very good. I agree on the rebounding issue, on the other hand, I am sure the Celtics would swap the two players in a sec if they were given the opportunity. I really disagree on Perkins being the better C, not on defense, not on offence, not by making his team mates better. By having Bargnani “parked” at the three, you bring out centers of the likes of Howard, making life easier for everybody.
4th-8th
I am confident the Raps will make th playoffs. I would bet on that. However, where they will finish I can’t predict with confidence. Add the Bulls to tier 2 teams.
Second Best Team In the East
Here are the reasons:
Outside of point guard, and maybe shooting guard if DeRozan starts, the team is not what you would consider traditional by any means. PF, SF, and C are all unique in their skill sets, and pose significant match up problems. It is difficult to automatically assess such a non-traditional outfit.
The wing position was VERY BAD last year. When Anthony Parker had a good game they won, when he didn’t they lost. Wing play should not be a problem this year.
The bench was VERY BAD last year. I don’t have to expand on this, but honestly outside of Jack and Evans all of our anticipated rotation players will have come from quality teams or been part of near championship caliber teams in the past.
The defense should improve simply by way of the offense being more balanced and distributed, thus all of the players should have more energy to devote to defensive focus. Effective defense starts with having enough energy to play it, so as a consequence of roster improvements, I expect Chris Bosh to have a much better defensive showing this year. Also, the primary strength of the bench as it is currently composed (Jack, Wright, Rasho, Delfino—maybe—is DEFENSE), so depending on substitution patterns we should see a marked improvement in this area automatically.
Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani are both better offensive complements to Hedo Turkoglu than Dwight Howard was so the offense should improve
Better practices — with better quality depth the practices should be better than they were last year because the in-practice competition is much improved. The team should be better prepared than they showed at times last year, and as the season progresses will have formed the necessary habits to play at a high level.
Lastly, Outside of Orlando and even more so than Boston when you factor in age and depth, this team is best positioned to lose its best player and still win games.
I will be disagreed with but that’s ok. I’m not aiming to make outrageous comments but I’m a huge proponent of balance and this is what Colangelo has achieved this off-season and that is why I think the claim is justified.
I think you’d be hard pressed to find someone in the Raptors organization that would call them the second-best team in the East. Orlando and Cleveland are both going to post 60+ wins. Boston could get there as well, if Garnett comes back healthy… The Raptors are looking at 40-something wins (.500 record at the low end and maybe 48 wins at the top end).
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Jul 27, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Strange how going into the season last year some were predicting a 50 win team, fourth in the east, etc…and then the games were played. I think what has happened with many fans now is the opposite—temper expectations to the point of having none and automatically be satisfied with anything that exceeds those low expectations.
I think you’d be hard pressed to find someone who would admit publicly to the team being the second best in the East, given last year’s outcome, but why wouldn’t they be gunning for that stratosphere privately.
Maybe I’m missing something but can someone explain why Cleveland will automatically win 60+ games? Does everybody see them as being capable of replicating their home record from last year? With the departure of Kuester will their offense run as well, given the need to accommodate Shaq? I think what happened to Cleveland in the regular season last year was the best case scenario for that team, and should not be expected as the norm.
by HQ Interloper on Jul 27, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe getting a bit ahead of ourselves
Enjoy the post and agree with most points in terms of the top 3 being in a league of their own. Obviously standings are near impossible to predict, hell, just ask any Washington fan about how quickly a season can go sour with one injury…having said that, assuming the Raps stay healthy and everything goes according to plan, I still have a hard time seeing them as a 4/5 seed. The problem is, even after many years of playing around with the line-up, BC still has a jump shot dependent team, with the likes of Bosh/Bargs/and Calderon making up a big chunk of the offense, Hedo having a bit of aggression to him (though not an athletic big by any means, he too can get caught jackin up “shats”), and the SG position up in the air (is Delfino even joining the raps/can Derozan be an effective NBA player in his first season/who the hell are these guys from Dallas?)…is this really the basis for a 4rth seed in the east?
Our bench may provide a bit more aggression than past years, as Jack and Evans will certainly give us a bit more of an “in your face” attitude, and Rasho will be solid as usual, I don’t see even that vaulting us past teams like Atlanta (athletic team, not affraid of the paint, young), Miami (Wade gets either Boozer and/or Odom to play along side him they are automatic 4/5 in the east), or even Washington (assuming Agent Zero is even half of the player he once was). As much as it may sound like a lot of pressure for a first year guy, Derozan may be the wild card that determines how we can break down other teams d with penetration. If he does provide us that ability to mix up styles we may have a chance at the 4/5. But if the live and die by the jumpshot era continues, we may get a playoff spot, but we may also get dominated in the playoffs by a team that commits to taking it to the rim! (aka: the only way to win titles!)
Hopefully I’m wrong, and this is the beginning of a great era of Raptors Basketball, but after being pushed to drink the JO koolaid last year, and the “Kapono will get so many 3 point shots based on the doubles Bosh draws” crap the year before, I think a realistic goal this year is the 6 spot, unless of course Agent Zero is blogging with an injury and Wade is still begging Riley to make a move come mid season…
Jump Shots
I think that’s a major concern for most people as when we left at the end of last season, we were mostly hoping Colangelo to go athletic and rebound crazy, but he hasn’t really done so. However, I’d say he’s assembled a much smarter group of players that are at least bigger than their predecessors. With Jack behind Jose, DeMar replacing Moon, Wright replacing Parker, Rasho replacing Voskuhl and Evans replacing Hump and I think the team got a lot more size without sacrificing a whole lot of speed.
But yes, this team is still very much reliant on jump shooting… Albeit not as much as some years, but when four of your top five are known for shooting the ball well… You’re just not going to get away from it.
Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com
by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Jul 27, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Depth
Broken down that way I agree on all fronts in terms of an upgraded team, no doubt. DeMar still hasn’t cut his teeth in the NBA yet though, but one can assume any type of offense he brings will easily replace Moon’s need to jack up his “bunny-hop shots”. My only concern or considered downgrade of that bunch would be Wright for Parker, though admittedly I wasn’t exactly watching for him during Dallas games last season. Parker was certainly a basketball IQ guy, though slightly timid on the offensive end at times. I hear Wright gives some good wing defense though, so maybe it ends up a tie…hopefully…
Without an overhaul of the core group this will always be a jump shooting team. This is why I almost see hints of BC looking to replace CB4 after this season or at least have the option to, because if you ended up with a more typical PF in terms of aggression and mass, the system would almost work better by contrasting styles, instead of everyone jacking shots up.
What top 3?
I think that many are misremembering (to quote a pitcher) how steep the age cliff is that Boston is about to roll down. I think I will enjoy watching them tumble. That was after all the deal with the devil that Ange made. Great team for two years and then get the walkers out. They will be lucky to finish top 4 with all the injuries and Allen/Rondo trade rumours they will have to deal with this year.
Orlando seems to me lost a step this offseason. You can’t replace the intangibles that Hedo brings with a head case like Vince. They will obviously be good, but I don’t think they will be as good as last year.
Cleveland will have their own problems, just ask Phoenix. They will need to work Shaq into their offence free throw game plan. I don’t think they will be as good as last year either.
I also believe that the Raptors will get more out of Hedo with the players around him than Orlando did. And, since we are a replica of the Magic circa 2009, top four seed, here we come.
Magic Replica
I like the enthusiasm and do agree that Boston could be set for a tumble (althought I think they have one more good post season in them). However, I do not see the team as a Magic replica since we have nobody that plays like D12.
CB4 > D12
D12 was outplayed by CB4 last summer. What we lose by way of inside toughness we more than make up by a good mid range game and one of the best free throw shooting in the league for his spot. CB4 is not a liability at the end of games, doesn’t foul out and can make a clutch shot when he needs to.
CB4 > D12... in international basketball
Unfortunately, the comparison we are concerned about has to do with the NBA version of the game.
But Bosh definitely outplayed him on the international stage — no debate there.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Jul 27, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Magic/Celtics legit. Don't believe the CAVS hype though...
Good call on the "misremembering"…that never gets old!
I still see Boston living up to the hype. No doubt Sheed is not the same guy who won a title with Detroit a few years back, but he still causes matchup problems on both ends of the court and I see the likes of Allen and Pierce really benefiting from this, as no one is going to just leave him open. Age will catch up with this group eventually, but I don’t see them just losing it 2 years removed from their title (especially if KG can regain his health and form, since if they had him last post season, we may have not seen a finals game in Orlando to begin with).
The difference with Cleavland is you can’t use the word "group" with them at all. It’s LBJ, part time Shaq (you know he will sit out his share of games this year, especially when his icy hot patches don’t cure the joint pain he will feel living in the cold air of Cleveland!), and a bunch of spare parts, because no matter how you slice it, Mo Williams is NOT a legit guard on a championship caliber team . You could even argue if it weren’t for injury, he’s no Jameer Nelson or Jose Calderon in terms of PG in the East. I’m sure next to LeBron even Mike James could go off for 30 every now and then… Otherwise they have…err…Varejao….my point exactly!
Magic will still be good, I know it’s quite fashionable to hate on VC, but he always plays well when it pressure isn’t only on him. They also retained all other key players minus Hedo, and I don’t see Howard doing anything but improving his post moves and jump shot. So unless someone can legitimately make the argument that Hedo is twice the player that Vince is, I can’t see them not making another long playoff run…
Who know’s maybe there is hope for a higher seed for Toronto, but at least 2 of those 3 are going to kill it, and one of them is in the same division.
Expectations
All we need is for the Raps to make the post season. Last year we had huge expectations with Bosh and JO and we all see what happened, we barely won 30 games. So to soften the blow, all the Raps have to do is get to the dance and go from their. I will leave the seed that they get to the players, if they over achieve we could be very happy with a top 4, if they just achieve then we are in the playoffs. If they under achieve then its lottery. With all the new pieces if the Raps comes out winning then gelling won’t be a problem, If they comes out losing then JT have to find the right combinations to put on the floor and that could take up to 30 games. So I won’t be going ahead of myself because we have done so over the past 3 seasons and we see the result, a steady decline…………..this should be one hell of a season…………raps4life
Prediction
Taking everything into account and with a little optimism, I predict the Raps will finish 5th in the East and face the Wizards (4th) in the first round.
by Dan-o the Man-o on Jul 27, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions
Mental Toughness
The margin of error to becoming the 4th seed will be extremely thin. This season will come down to mental toughness. In the past, Toronto lost too many games in an inexplicable fashion. There were too many nights when guys didn’t show up and after the game seemed confused about what happened. If the Raptors show up to play every night (and the team gels like we hope they will) they could do some damage.
5 - 8 seed
Not getting the fourth seed isn’t necessarily a kiss of death, sure on paper drawing Bos, Cle, or Orl in the first round seems like a kiss of death, but that’s on paper. Going into last season, you would have thought that the Celtics would roll over their first round opponents, but that Bulls had a great shot to win that series. With age, and injury factors, if Toronto is playing good ball at the right time, with some luck, they could upset a higher seed.
Chicago
Given the Celtics were missing KG I am not sure that is a good example.
Dave "Howland" Randell
Co-Creator of RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Howland on Jul 27, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Good example
He did say “With age, and injury factors”…
by dhackett1565 on Jul 27, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
jump shooting
In regards to the Raps being a jump shooting team….. wasn’t Orlando a jump shotting team as well? Yes they have Howard for boards but he’s their only interior presence so if you execute well and hit shots that jump-shooting stuff goes out the window.
As for Bosh not being aggressive or needing a more traditional 4, correct me if i’m wrong but doesn’t he get to the line in the top 10 of players on the league. Is he getting fouled shooting jumpers or going to the rim?
We can make predicitions but over 82 games who knows what happens? The Raps are not the best team in the conference but they could rank anywhere from #3-8 depending on what happens over 82 games. What will end up determining where they are positioned is health, team chemistry and defence.
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