Sunday Thought - The Cost of Waiting on Jack

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jul 19, 2009 10:10 AM EDT Comment 28 comments

Franchise hopes that waiting on Jack doesn't leave BC stuck with the likes of Magloire to fill out the roster...

How bad did Bryan Colangelo really want Jarrett Jack?

Well considering the team still has a few days left before they find out if he's officially a Raptor or not, I'd say pretty bad.

Because while Toronto waits to see if the former Georgia Tech guard joins them for next season, it could be at the expense of other free agents.

As I commented yesterday, the Raptors plan A is obviously Jack, but they needed to have a plan B in place, even if they felt fairly confident that they'd be able to snag the former Pacer. One would think that plan B consisted of some combination of Carlos Delfino, Rasho Nesterovic and others but as the Raps wait on Jack, many of those "other" options look to be drying up.

This morning various sources were reporting that Chris Wilcox, a player I felt would be a good addition to the Dinos for little salary, had agreed to sign with the Pistons, and confirming rumours I heard in Vegas, Rasho Nesterovic is also on Detroit's wish list. If these two are off the board, it doesn't leave a lot of options for Colangelo in terms of serviceable back-ups, in particular for Andrea Bargnani.

Aaron Gray, Johan Petro or Shelden Williams? Is there enough upside in names like this?

Or how about athletic shot-blockers like Stromile Swift or Johan Petro, players who just haven't been able to live up to expectations?

Grizzled vets like Adonal Foyle, Ben Wallace or Theo Ratlif? Ratliff might be interesting if he could stay healthy...

...and please don't say Jamaal Magloire.

Of the remaining "bigs," the best options are actually 4's like Joel Anthony or again, Toronto's own Pops Mensah-Bonsu. Both have played the center spot at times, especially Anthony, and both have more upside than almost anyone left in their category.

Another option might be Joe Smith, however I'm not sure he has any reason to leave Cleveland regardless of how much money is thrown his way. And if Toronto goes a bit smaller, then maybe they gamble on someone like Leon Powe, who because of his recent injury might be had for cheap.

The tricky thing is that if waiting on Jack eliminates various options for bench depth, BC might be placed in a situation where he feels he needs to overpay to secure a much-needed back-up at the 5. And considering the expected luxury tax drop next summer, this is something they need to be very wary of.

The last thing Toronto wants is to shore up an important bench spot behind Jose only to be forced into signing Robert Swift for the next 3 years...

FRANCHISE

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couldn't afford Wilcox...

Wilcox signed for 2yrs/6mil. Too rich for the Raps and the money they had left… and since the offer sheet to Jack was signed, no significant bench worthy player has really been snagged by anyone…

I read somewhere that Ike Diogu had interest from the Raps… so you can add him to the questionable upside list…

we already have a project center the POB… though I don’t mind Aaron Gray’s game… if we needed an new project I’d vote for him…

I think it makes more and more sense to sign Pops… for the rebounding alone.

by lessthanzero on Jul 19, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anthony...

Not just for Canadian content… but Anthony would be some nice muscle in the big rotation…

by lessthanzero on Jul 19, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

we could use a shot-blocker off the bench, though that would still mean we won’t score a single point once our starters come off

Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog

by boo15749 on Jul 19, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure about that. Jack and DeRozan could probably do their share of damage, as well as Delfino should he re-sign.

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Jul 19, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

besides Jack, I meant to say

but I’m definitely taking a wait and see attitude regarding DeRozan’s ability to create a shot, it will probably get better but I doubt he can create a lot of offense at this point. I also went on the assumption that we’re not bringing back Delfino (though we may)

Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog

by boo15749 on Jul 19, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pops!

Loving the new site boys, fantastic to see the HQ really take off as the best community of Raps’ fans on the net.

As for filling out the roster, I can’t say as I agree with the premise that Jack has cost us anything. My prediction, which is really just a wild-ass guess, is that we still land Rasho for the bi-annual (I mean, if ever there were a guy to give a “hometown discount”, it has to be Rasho, doesn’t it?), retain Pops and possibly pick up Anthony. Personally, I prefer all of these options to Chris Wilcox, although, in his defense, he does look like someone who could have been a mainstay on The Wire, so that would have been a nice addition to the squad. I’d also be open to taking a flyer on Ike Diogu. And if Adonal Foyle ever graces a Raps uni I will not be happy.

by RaptorsAddict on Jul 19, 2009 12:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re waiting for Jack

Franchise, we know BC is talking to Delfino’s agent, and would be surprised if he has not contacted Nesterovic’s by now. Would expect Delfino to finally realize if he wants to return to the NBA Raptors are his best option, if he wants the cash, he needs to keep up his Russian. If not Carlos, there are reasonable options still out there, Barnes, Wafer etc. The question is will Rasho sign for the $1.9 BC has available, or does he have to go elswhere? Some affordable options may be James Singleton, Brian Skinner, Sean Marks, Ike Diogu, all UFA’s as bigs are a priority. Jack, Delfino, and Nesterovic is still the plan A, and makes 15, and next stop training camp in September.

by Johnn19 on Jul 19, 2009 12:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jack Attack

If we get JJ, it will be worth it.

I do not think Wilcox will ever turn into anything much.

I am actually hoping that Delfino is off the wish list now that Douby has shown some promise, given how cheap his price tag is.

I like Rasho, but at his age, I do not want to see him signed for more/longer than the LLE (BAE) – waiting on Jack did not prohibit offering up this exception.

I would like to see the Raps waive POB and take a flier on another young guy with upside.

by JBen on Jul 19, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is a 3 big rotation btw bargnani, bosh, and evans not enough?

minutes wise, i think if we have those 3 guys rotating in the two front court spots and putting turk at the four when we go small and versatile, it might be enough. however, when you play howard and shaq there will be foul trouble and other issues defending those players with our frontcourt depth. i would love to see joel anthony on the team despite him and evans being equally offensively challenged. call me pro/homer…

by MP22 on Jul 19, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Evans is small, 6’6" to 6’8". He can’t play major minutes or we are screwed.

by bigweeze on Jul 19, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

him being small

means he can’t play major minutes? So are Powe, Davis, Millsap, Boozer, Brand… there are PLENTY of small PFs in this leaugue

Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog

by boo15749 on Jul 19, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The reason the positions in basketball are defined as they are – for defense, not offense. Depending on your offensive style, you can play whoever you want to maximize your points scored. But the problem comes in matching up defensively. Reggie Evans will be repeatedly attacked and exposed if he plays major minutes, just as a team with Vince Carter, Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce, Dwyane Wade and Manu Ginobili would get exposed in the paint.

Reggie Evans cannot block shots or alter shots (think Hoffa), this means his only defense against a driving perimeter player is to foul. Evans’ biggest asset is his ability to rebound the ball (on offense). But being shorter than average puts you at a distinct disadvantage defensively. Think of how many layups will occur with Evans and Bargnani on the floor at the same time.

Another point of note is that aside from a really great talent like Wade – even quality combo guards (PG/SG like Arenas/Ben Gordon) and tweeners (SF/PFs like Antawn Jamison) have largely had trouble establishing themselves as franchise players or even starters because they are too slow to guard the smaller player, yet too small to guard the larger player. Imagine how good Iverson would have been with another couple of inches of height.

So who should the Raps play instead of Evans? I don’t see many better options on the roster, maybe we should have looked into that before using our MLE. Or pray we can get Rasho back on the cheap.

Just addressing your point of there being many small PFs in the league – I don’t deny that there are some quality smaller players capable of playing PF well. But generally, they face an uphill battle. They’re often role players, energy guys, and they are not the ones you want to pay major money to.

Powe I do like for punch off the bench. But both he and Davis played beside KG who covers for plenty of his partner’s shortcomings. Kind of like how Alvin Williams looked good standing beside Vince but awful without him.

If you look at Boozer and Millsap – they are two of the most foul-prone players in the league, both ranking in the top 8 per game. Boozer is a good post scorer and rebounder, but a notable weak link on defense and Millsap has yet to extend to a full-time workload of 35-40 minutes. Millsap is good as well, but his blocks per game have remained flat despite increasing his minutes from 20 to 30 over the last couple of years. It’s just not to give the same effort defensively over extended minutes.

Elton Brand is good, but has never gotten out of the first round and his teams often disappoint. But guys like KG, Duncan, Howard, Nowitzki are getting to the NBA Finals and consistently in the playoffs because they are just a little more capable.

by bigweeze on Jul 19, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

height is important but...

does it really matter if he’s just shy of a few inches. im sure he has a a long wingspan that makes up for his lack of height. Evans may not be a threat at altering shots but theres more to defense than just swatting balls away, he is a man able to take (foul) charges and is tough to back down his opposition and is competitive. im sure with iavoroni he will be able to get better on D but its not like he’s terrible.

also consider ben wallace who was/is a shorter nba center/pf than most. he was the defensive force behind detroit glorious years when they won their championships.

by tea time on Jul 19, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is only so much you can teach – even if you or I played “perfect defense” we would still be bounced from the league. Reggie is a tweener, he will alwasy be at a disadvantage against the normal size PFs. Wallace was an athletic freak during the time everything clicked for him in Detroit. But once he lost some of that bounce, his game slipped dramatically.

I guess we’ll have to let it play out, but I still feel Reggie Evans is a player best served with about 15 minutes of high intensity time per game, not 20-30. Foul trouble will be a concern with him in extended minutes.

by bigweeze on Jul 20, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve gotta agree with bigweeze. Evans is not going to be a jumper, but rather a guy that will fight for position and try and out muscle guys. He’ll have his uses, but out jumping people is not his forte. He’s also solely an inside man, who’s going to get fouled a lot… Which means he’ll be at the line and with his free throw shooting, it’ll be detrimental. (But at least with this Raptors team, another guy picking up fouls against the other team isn’t so bad, right?)

Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com

by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Jul 20, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is a good rebounder by the numbers, but I wonder if he has a little Danny Fortson in him – grab offensive board, miss putback, grab own miss. Nevertheless, he should be a good complement to Bosh and Bargnani on the offensive end as they do like to play away from the basket and he plays the garbageman role well.

I just shudder at the thought of playing Cleveland or Orlando with guys like Lebron, Howard and VC attacking the basket. We all know how Vince gets up for the games in Toronto..

by bigweeze on Jul 20, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Johan Petro,Nazr Mohammed, Gerald Green

Thanks for the article today Franchise; I disagree that signing Jack to an offer sheet has affected our ability to get other FAs. Waiting the week is just part of the process and any other FAs that might be interested in playing here wont just choose another team bec they have to wait 7 days for the Raps to close the deal. with Jack.

I’d like to see POB waived and us pick up Johan Petro. Petro has the personality and the grit to be a solid Center in the league but what he lacks sorely is weight/strength. I’ve watched him play for France, OKC and Denver and he showed wayyyyyyyyyyyyy more promise and upside than POB. At 23 and getting stronger evey year, I’d put money on him developing into a starter or at least first guy off the bench for a good team in 3-4yrs.

I wonder if we could get Nazr Mohammed for Marcus Banks & POB? Nazr is an under appreciated veteran big that would be insurance for incase the injury bug hits.

Plz no Ike Diogu. Joey Graham 2.0. We already have a defensive wing in Wright, we need a scorer off the bench who can play SG/SF. Take a gamble of Gerald Green? Could you imagine if Green “gets it” and plays well for us; Him and DD could be excellent wings for yrs to come (maybe wishful thinking more than anything)

I’d like us to replace the idea of bringing back Delfino with the possibility of giving Douby/Jack those minutes at PG/SG. I thought Rasho was frustrating during his season here and now we’re talking abt bringing him back? I thought he was over the hill back then, this is 2yrs later, whats the point? Say no to Rasho.

My team would look like this:

Bargs/Petro/Mohammed
Bosh/Evans/Pops
Hedo/Green/George
DD/Wright/Douby
Calderon/Jack/Roko

This leaves room for moves during the season and next off season bec Douby, George and Wright are all expiring/cheap contracts and I’m assuming Petro and Green would also fall into that category if they were brought in.

by Member29 on Jul 19, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If we could get Petro cheap I’d do it just for the “Petro Canada” joke possibilities! Mohammed’s interesting but his salary is huge per year. However…a trade that works financially is moving Banks and O’Bryant to Charlotte for him. Can’t see Charlotte biting on it but hey, Larry Brown also at one point traded for Steve Francis and thought Trevor Ariza was useless…

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jul 19, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is why losing jawai sucks

I’m not saying he was going to be good, but he a was large tough guy to stick under the hoop. Losing hump, jawaii – though I know they’re not all-stars silverback – could turn out disastrous if we can’t get rasho because it’s a guarantee, either bosh or bargs miss some time this year, based on their history.

by axl t on Jul 19, 2009 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Totally agree. The one thing that no one is really talking about is Bargnani’s foul trouble. He was better last year but if he picks up two quick fouls it has a huge impact on the game:

One, it means Bosh has to play the 5 and Evans the 4. That hurts offensively as Evans can’t score and Bosh isn’t as effective offensively because at the other end he’s perhaps getting beaten up by a more physical presence.

Two, Evans isn’t the most foul-concious player either. If Triano tries him at the 5, what happens if HE gets in foul trouble? One more solid big, especialy a shot-blocking type, would be great.

But I suppose you could say that another scoring wing would be good too…just depends where BC decides he needs to fill in cracks first.

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jul 19, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There was a cost in waiting on Jack

but Colangelo must have considered that before tendering him the offer sheet. I would agree with BC that a back up point that can play a little off guard was probably more pressing than a back up 4/5. It would have been nice to get Wilcox but Jack is probably more valuable to the Raps, seeing as how steep the drop off is behind Jose. Fortunately it looks the like Pacers aren’t going to match the offer, because it would really suck to have waited out the week for nothing.

I too am of the opinion that Rasho isn’t the best answer at backup center, someone with some upside would be preferable, but at least we know what to expect from Rasho and it’s nice that he wants to be here.

by CalexanderJ on Jul 19, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

have to agree with that

we needed guard depth more than anything, and we could still try to bring back pops (which i would like to see)

Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog

by boo15749 on Jul 19, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question is this. Did you think of writing this article after Earl Watson was released or before?

I would be very surprised if the Raptors did not address their rebounding need through a quality big man, probably Rasho Nesterovic or Drew Gooden. They could also snatch a lesser player like Pops, remember they don’t need a post scorer or big name player, just a banger type with a big body. They were probably hoping POB would fill that void but after his summer league performance it became clear that’s not going to happen.

Jack is a good player, he’s the type of player that every team needs – a tweener guard that can play multiple positions and doesn’t concede much on defense. He’s only 25 years old and has a mature head on him, investing in him is not a bad idea at all. If you talk to some of the Pacer bloggers and writers you’ll know they love Jack and what he brings: quality guy, good player, and a solid locker room presence. He was playing 33+ minutes in Indiana which was too much for him (thus the high turnovers), if you keep his minutes in the 20-27 minute range he’ll be that much better.

As for Wilcox, don’t be fooled by him, I was a fan of him in Maryland and Seattle but the guy takes more possessions off than Jamario Moon. I wanted the Raptors to acquire him a year and a half ago and thankfully they didn’t. It’s easy to get fooled by his thunderous dunks in the paint but overall he’s hollow, no wonder the Thunder and the Knicks didn’t care for him. I’d rather take Jason Maxiell over him.

by Arsenalist on Jul 19, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No, wrote this badboy this morning so yes, pretty clear that Jack will be a Rap barring some bizarre move by the Pacers. However I thought when seeing some of the other players being signed, especially from the “big man” pool which was quite shallow to begin with, that it’s an interesting thought ; when you go after restricted free-agents that you may need to wait out, that can handcuff you as a GM from making other moves.

Therefore it really shows how badly you want a particular player because ostensibly your funds are tied up until you see just whether or not the other team matches your offer etc.

Do I think waiting on Jack hurts the Raptors? No, and mostly because I believe as mentioned that he’ll be in red and black to start the season.

And really, I ranted a year ago about how terrible a move I thought it was not to have a back-up for Jose in the wake of the JO deal and with Jack being an HQ favourite for a while, this is my favourite move of Colangelo’s so far this off-season.

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jul 19, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FREE AGENTS

Whats wrong with waiting it out? Players will fall through the ‘cracks’ of the FA market like BC says. It’s not a bad strategy when we don’t have a definitve target (outside of Jarret Jack) and some pesos to throw about.

Even if we don’t get our ‘big’, it doesn’t mean we can’t trade for one later….

If it comes down to it: George, Delfino, Wright, Ukic can all be dealt at some point.

Todays hoopsyhype says that Bellinelli and Brandan Wright are on the outs in GSW – and I hear that Dallas wants to move K.Hump (but I don’t like his contract at all…so pass).

I’m not so worried about the SG position, but I think it behooves us to get an above average SF in case Turk plays ‘big’. I’m not sure Delfino is it? He did back-up Tayshaun though…. and Matt Barnes…. im 45/65% yes.

by Jenge on Jul 19, 2009 3:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Moon

Cavs offer Moon an offer sheet

by d279 on Jul 19, 2009 5:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Parker AND Moon?

Thanks for the update d279…think they’ll try and complete the trifecta and grab Graham??

This could be interesting though.

Cavs were such a good defensive team last year so if Moon signs, this might give some insight into the whole “Jamario the statistical wonderchild vs Jamario the actual player…”

by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Jul 19, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs