The DeRozan Dilemma

by RaptorsHQ - Archives on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT in NBA Draft

Even if DeRozan is the next Gay, can the Raptors afford to wait on his development?

Four days until the draft.

Four days until Demar DeRozan is the newest Toronto Raptor right?

Since we saw Jrue Holiday work out in person, the HQ has suspected that he, DeRozan, Henderson and Flynn were at the top of Toronto’s "one of these guys should be available at 9" draft board.

DeRozan appears to be the favourite, and Bryan Colangelo hasn’t been shy in recent radio interviews about his affinity for the USC product.

But is this the right way for BC to go?

Interestingly, the poll on our home page had most fans favouring DeRozan and Tyreke Evans by a long shot up until last week. Suddenly, some interesting statistical information courtesy of Jon Hollinger was revealed, and then that poll started to change. Guys like Gerald Henderson and Jonny Flynn started to gain momentum, and even the comments on the site referred to the dangers of drafting DeRozan.

There’s no clear answer of course.

As you’ll read in our interview with Jonathan Givony of Draftexpress, none of these prospects are exactly blue-chippers, and so picking DeRozan in the long run might be the best bet.

However here’s a thought I had this weekend.

Let’s say DeRozan is like T-Mac when he first came to the Raptors. In year one, he doesn’t play much, and when he does, looks years away from being able to contribute. In year two, he’s a bit better, and like McGrady shows flashes of brilliance at times. The Raptors exercise their option on him, and finally in year 3 he breaks out.

However without DeRozan being a factor in year one, and without much financial room for the sweeping talent-upgrade the team needed, the Delfino-Marion-Evans trio only brings in a few more wins for Toronto, and Bosh eventually goes south.

Without Bosh, the team continues to be mired in mediocrity and although the Raptors hold DeRozan’s rights, he makes it known then when his contract is up, he too has his bags packed.

Yes, rather a doom and gloom scenario I realize.

But is it that unrealistic?

By all accounts DeRozan is an athletic marvel but a project nonetheless. I’m not sure anyone, the Raptors’ brass included, is counting on him to contribute much next year.

But therein lies the problem.

If Bryan Colangelo truly wants the best chance at keeping Chris Bosh, he not only will probably need to pony up a max contract, but he’ll also have to put together a squad that showed a lot more promise then that of last year. As I’ve discussed many-a-time, by not moving CB4 this off-season, he’s essentially loading up a one-year game of Russian roulette where simply returning to the playoffs, probably won’t be enough.

This team needs to show that it’s on track to compete with the best in the East and even if it’s not this year, it needs to be in the near future I’m guessing for Bosh’s sake.

So does adding DeRozan really help this situation?

It reminds me a bit of Houston trading Rudy Gay and parts on draft day for Shane Battier. At the time, this was viewed as a bad move by the Rockets to give up on a player of Gay’s star potential.

But here we are three years later, and the Rockets are still reaping the benefits of that deal. Gay might be a more dangerous offensive player, and a future all-star, but Houston recognized that Battier was a better fit for their club, and they wanted to start winning now, not in five years.

So this is my question; can Colangelo afford to gamble on "upside" with this pick?

The counter-point to all of this obviously is that perhaps DeRozan DOES have an impact next year, and perhaps Toronto walks away with the player who is eventually the best from this draft class, surpassing even Blake Griffin. And perhaps even if DeRozan doesn’t develop, BC’s next moves via free-agency, which arguably are going to have a much bigger on-court impact for next season, mean that Toronto doesn’t need to rely on Demar anyways, and he can develop at his own pace.

I guess my fear is just that you only get so many rolls of the dice.

So why not play the best odds each time instead of trying to come up with the one big score?

Well, perhaps it’s just not in BC’s nature.

ESPN.com on Friday actually had Colangelo ranked as the top GM in terms of "drafting prowess" in a comparison of NBA GM’s over the past 20 years.

And looking at his track record, he has come up huge on similar "athletic projects" like Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire.

(As a side note, it’s interesting that the Raptors have had the top two executives in the ESPN survey, Colangelo and Thomas, and also two of the bottom five in Jack McCloskey and Pete Babcock, who of course was helping out brother Rob.)

So maybe, for the man who ESPN.com quoted as saying \"At the end of the day, you also have to trust your gut," this is hardly a risky pick at all.

But that’s still not saying grabbing DeRozan is the right choice.

The argument could be made that instead of the typical, "drafting for need vs. drafting the best remaining talent on the board" options, Toronto should explore a third choice; drafting for skill sets. While drafting on upside has surely been a crapshoot (Shawne Williams) and so has drafting to fill a need (big man – Hoffa), the one thing that has panned out historically is grabbing a player with a discernible skill set that translates from college to the NBA (ie; rebounding, 3-point shooting, etc.)

It doesn’t necessarily guarantee the best prospect when all is said and done, but it might make a lot more sense than simply taking a flyer on someone to simply fill a position, or who offers upside. Suddenly under this theorem, players like DeJuan Blair (rebounding) and even Jeff Teague (ability to attack the basket) become much more valuable.

Looking at things this way, you’d have to say then that Gerald Henderson probably is the best play at nine. Yes he’s a wing with some upside, so fits both the "need and best player" suppositions, but he also excels at getting to the rim and defending on the perimeter, two skills that have shown time and time again to translate at the NBA level.

However when all is said and done, I do believe that if DeRozan is there at nine, he’ll be Colangelo’s choice rightly or wrongly. The Raptors’ PR crew informed us late last night that there will be no more workouts this week so it looks like Toronto is happy with the pool of players they’ve seen, and don’t expect the likes of Harden or Evans to be around when the Raptors draft.

Of course a lot can change over the next four days.

With trade rumours flying regarding teams like Washington and Minnesota, who knows how things will play out Thursday night, and the NBA’s "Green Room" List released at Draftexpress this morning is a testament to this uncertainty.

Do the Raptors think they’re cutting through a lot of this uncertainty and grabbing a fairly sure thing in DeRozan?

Perhaps.

But I’m sure if you talked to Denver’s management about their drafting of Nikoloz Tskitishvilli in 2002, they were probably saying the same thing…

FRANCHISE

PS – A huge win for Canada Basketball yesterday as the U16 Men’s Team thrashed Venezuela 106 to 81 to claim a bronze medal, and win a spot in the 2010 World Championship’s.

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Comments

Great article Franchise. Very interesting theories on our draft options. I think if we draft DD it will be knowing that he won’t be a major factor in the first yr or 2. BC has to know that the solution to our SG/SF needs cannot be found at the #9 spot. I don’t think for a minute BC is looking for a starting SF/SG with this pick, it’s more of an investment in the future. Even if we don’t pick DD, whoever we choose won’t be a solution on the wings so we might as well swing for the fences and draft DD and rely on FA/Trade to address our current needs. Using this thought process I would be fine with DD 9.
I actually prefer Gerald Henderson at 9. I’d rather see us get a guy who can contribute today for sure, even if it’s off the bench, rather than a guy who may be a star or bust but we won’t know for another 2 yrs.

by Member29 on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Franchise,thanks again for all your work and dedication to round ball.
I tend to agree with the D.D. dilema,he will not be our savior,but I guess at the end of the day,its about putting butts in the seats,and D.D. would probably be the best at doing that.We may have to take Hill,with the way his stock has fallen we would be crazy not to take a possible Bosh replacement at nine.(not being negative,just a realist)
I like Evans but he will be long gone.
If someone other than D.D.?,my choice would be between the Orange and Dookie !!!

by d279 on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I think the whole "do it to keep Bosh" line of thinking is played out. If he goes, he goes--he's hugely overrated and his knees aren't going to hold out much longer--just let the guy walk and forget him.

Which brings me to my point: potential, potential, potential. Pick someone who could be a 20ppg scorer or else this team is going to be stuck for years. If DeRozan is a total bust and we miss the playoffs again: who cares? We only lose that 1st rounder if we're a top 8 team . . . so if "DD" stinks, we get another shot at it next year.

by Original Aaron on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

By the way, I voted for Tyreke Evans on your poll--he has the biggest upside of anyone in this draft, in my opinion. If Colangelo could trade up for Washington's pick (which I've heard numerous times that they don't want), then he has to do it to grab Tyreke.

by Original Aaron on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Original Aaron - I think Franchise's point is that it would be one thing to take a flyer on Demar last year or previously, but with a lot hinging on this upcoming season, it IS really important to get something of value from this draft. The other part of things is that if Bosh walks, and Toronto can't replace him with the newfound cap space, then the team needs to lean on DeRozan even more, especially since there's one other thing Franchise didn't touch on:

Toronto might not HAVE a pick next year!!!

Even if the team is just ok and makes the playoffs, they lost that pick to Miami.

by lurker on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

its worth the gamble...if DD is the next "one" then we and the other teams in the draft will be kicking themselves if they pass on him, plus: he fills our SG need, its a no brainer even if it doesn't work out.,,,
it would be diiferent if he just came out of high school or something, but everyone knows he can play.

by toshmon on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

lurker, What do you mean we might not have a pick next year? Lost it to Miami? You mean no first or second round picks next yr? Someone PLZ enlighten me on this.

by Member29 on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

toshmon, i don't think DD or anyone available at 9 "fills our SG need". We need a starting SG that plays solid defence and averages 16-20ppg. Are you suggesting we draft DD to fill that role? DD fills our need for young, appreciating talent, but that's about it right now. Not saying we shouldn’t get him, just saying let’s keep our expectations realistic. Our SG/SF needs for next year cannot be found at #9 imo.

by Member29 on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

The teams who want to build perennial contenders draft players who can potentially be special. That approach is particularly relevant in this luxury tax era because if that "specialness" is realized within the first couple of years, the value in terms of production for pay skews in the team's favour.
You also don't build your team to appease a single player (Bosh).
Interesting that you bring up Houston as an example, who outside of this year didn't make it past the first round of the playoffs, and outside of some solid young role players don't have much of a championship competitive window left with its current iteration, given Yao and Tracy's health issues. Lastly, Dukies, although solid, haven't made the sort of transition to the NBA where they stand out as outstanding, maybe not since Grant Hill. The ones that come to mind off the top of my head are Battier, Reddick, Dahntay Jones, with Carlos Boozer being the most recent exception as an upper echelon type, but the rest are solid role players. Right now, the Raptors need to take a chance at getting more than that.

by Interloper on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

as part of the Marion trade, if the Raps make the playoffs next year, Miami gets out pick... and this goes for a few more years until it's unprotected in something like 2012.

by lessthanzero on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Member29 - yeah, just like lessthanzero stated, we owe Miami a protected first-round pick from the Marion deal. So if we make the playoffs next year, even if we sneak in and get kicked to the curb in the first round again, Miami gets the pick.

by lurker on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I think it's important to remember that BC is hoping to secure a later first round pick... and he'll know with some confidence whether he can make that happen, before he picks at 9. So, with a securing a second pick as part of his plan, I think you'll see BC go with his gut at 9, and then try to secure an NBA skill later. I keep seeing Teague mocked in the late teen and early twenties... it would be nice to see BC secure both DD and Teague (or even Blair if he falls)... which would be a best case scenario.

by lessthanzero on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I hope to post my interview with Jonathan Givony of Draftexpress.com tomorrow. DD is one of the guys we touch on among many others.

What is clear from the interview is that this is a very below average draft class. If this was any other year DD would not be in the running for the 9th spot.

by HOWLAND on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Just say no to Demar DeRo!!!

I say trade down. Try to get two decent picks that can at least come off the bench and contribute. Maybe pick up another player in the trade. This is the year to trade down.

by Silverback on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

The Miami deal is lottery protected until 2015 when they would get any pick we have. If the Raptors still have that pick by 2015, the reasoning is another pick wont make a difference anyway.

I still think we should take the best player available, regardless of postion. Drafting a player because he might be special is just silly as everyone believes the players they draft might be special. You don't draft some guy cause you think "well, he might be 9 or 10 guy one day so lets use our lottery pick on him". Drafting the best player available regardless of position is the best strategy and one Toronto has traditionally gone away from at key times (the Arrujo pick is a prime example, Bosh is actually another example as Wade was projected to be the better player at the time and he has shown that he is but Wince was still with the team so they drafted a forward). Bottom line if Johnny Flynn or Evans are still there then I say you take them and let the chips fall where they may.

by McGateway on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Chad Ford's newest mock draft has Toronto still taking DeRozan but one Toronto source apparently quoted as saying that Holiday actually has the edge over DD.

I think TO would love to get Evans, but there's no way he falls and I don't think Toronto has the assets to deal up. I also don't feel that they'll be able to grab a late first-round pick.

That being said, Portland has a gaggle of 2nd rounders so I'd love to see BC make a cheap play for one of them and grab someone like Paul Harris or Jerel McNeal.

by Franchise on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

McGateway is right; this is a draft where you can't afford to draft guys for positional needs, the Raps simply have to select the guy they believe is the best basketball player left with their pick. If Jordan Hill falls, then that's the guy you take irrespective of the fact he plays the same position as Bosh.

In any case, I think the Rudy Gay example, used by Franchise, is illustrative of what the Raptors should be trying to do. No matter who we pick, they're not going to be an IMPACT player next year, so BC should be actively trying to move the pick to a team interested in stockpiling some young talent.

Again, I know I use the Warriors a lot as an example, but this team is so dysfunctional that you never know what they'd be willing to do. BC needs to go Riley or Nellie or whoever is in charge over there and tell them that the Raps will pick for 'em at #9 if they would just be kind enough to send over Anthony Randolph.

Anthony Randolph is the real deal, and as soon as he gets some real playing time on a team that plays basketball (not Nellieball) this kid will put up serious numbers. If the Raps could get him, it would be like getting T-MAC AFTER his first few years in T.O.

Rob

PS-Franchise, come on, give BC a call and tell him to call GSW and pull this deal off; we all know you have some pull with the big wigs at MLSE now.

by 2nd Raps fan in LA on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Franchise--I feel similar to you, in that I want Colangelo to go for a second 1st rounder, but feel that he will fail to do so. I never understood why he didn't trade down in the 2006 draft to get Bargnani with the #6 or #7 and secure another pick.

In addition, when we had NO 1st rounders in 2007 and 2008, he did nothing and we paid for it dearly. He better not think Delfino is the answer, because that guy should be getting 15 minutes a game MAX on a mediocre NBA team. (they should have just left him in Russia with Araujo)

by Original Aaron on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

drafting to please a layer who could leave anyway is nonsense and can hinder your team chances for years. Have you read the latest Jack post on many issues + Bosh? not really a strong endorsement....

by renato on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I’d prefer we draft for the future. Not a project, but not necessarily someone who’ll jump right in and satisfy a position (amongst the few we need).

As for who we draft, we need a SG, a SF, or a combination of those two. Even a combo SF/PF, or a combo PG/SG would work for me. Since it appears no clear cut choices at the 9 spot, and unless something dramatic happens, I say we draft for position. This isn’t like the Araujo draft year – we were focused on that type of player – whereas we have 2 or 3 needs at this stage.

The biggest issue that the Raptors have to face, is with deciding a direction for this team, and where Bosh fits in there. I believe he’s leaving for 2 reasons – he ain’t getting his MAX contract here (I hope not), and he wants to go to a championship contender … NOW. Which is why I prefer not to allow "Bosh's" demands be our focus when drafting. I don’t mind having a couple of rookies this year. Just so long as they play hard and want to learn. And I think if we have a Marion (or Marion quality) at the SF, along with a healthy Jose, this team will make the move upwards. Where it goes, depends on a number of factors.

Unless one can reach into the mind of BC, there are too many variables at this time, to make sensible choices. We're essentially on the outside looking in -- spending a lot of time worrying about our fate.

by RapthoseLeafs on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I was just wondering about Giorgos Printezis and how he'd be looking to come over for the raps now. Checking the Olympiakos website I noticed his stat line was pretty favourable compared to Josh Childress' even though he played 5 minutes less per game.

He played 18.7 mins/game versus 23.8 for Childress. He scored 9.1 ppg versus 8.8 for Childress. He loses on the boards with 3.8 rpg versus Childress who had 4.6.

I'm wondering when BC might be planning to bring this guy over...

by d on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

PS... I also just noticed his percentages are awesome, at least from the team's Euroleague games. 65.4% from the field and 50% from 3. (His FT% was awful though at 51.7% although it was better during regular league games at 70%+.)

by d on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

d - We looked at Giorgos earlier this year and while his numbers are decent, if not workman-like, this year is not the year to take up roster room on another commodity, especially since the Raptors would be able to give him more experience in Europe. If he can prove that he can sustain his play for an entire season, Printezis would be an intriguing option. In particular, he has to work on his ball handling and rebounding a little more.

by Vicious D on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I understand the logic behind the "if the Raps stink it up next year, Bosh will walk" argument, but consider this; they stunk with him last year. This is also not a very strong draft, so I think the best you can hope for is a solid contributor rather than a gamebreaker.

That said, I think Flynn and Lawson have the most impressive resumes of the players that are likely to be around at #9. Henderson would be a decent pick at that spot. However, if it comes down to it, I think DeRozan is a defensible pick at that spot too. He's not a polished product yet, but he does have some skills to go along with his athleticism. When I watched him in the tournament, it was his mid-range jumper that impressed me the most. I don't see him as a star in the making, but it's a start.

by Skywalker on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I think we better have a team that can compete in east if we want anyone good to play for us whether it is bosh or no bosh. no good player wants to be in a bad team.

by gaboonrap on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Great article Franchise,
The Rudy Gay and Shane Battier comparision was bang on. I think that picking Demar is questionable at best, but I could be wrong. I haven't seen enough of him to make any generalizations, if he will or will not be productive in the league. You are right about the Raptors need to have the draft pick produce immediately. For me, the safe pick for the Raptors is Gerald Henderson or Johnny Fynn. I'm surprised that Ty Lawson is off the Raptors radar.

by SlickRick on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Great article,

personally I would like to see henderson in a raps jersey, he reminds me so much of a young ray allen, and i am a huge dukie fan so that part does not hurt..as far as the bosh thing goes, well I would liek to see him stay i really will not be all that hurt to see him go and have that kind of money to spend..the problem I have is that I believe that both he a Barg's essentially play the same type of face the basket game and what we really need is a true low post force..Still is nice to see all of the options that the raps have available with this pick...

by biggyc on Jun 23, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions