Sunday Thought – What’s Andrea Bargnani’s Ceiling?
First off, a big congratulations to the Orlando Magic.
I know I’ve repeatedly referred to them as frauds, but they got the job done in convincing fashion by closing out the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.
The difference in the series?
Well, besides the Magic bench, which we’ll be discussing in depth tomorrow, Orlando’s 3-point shooting was just too much for the Cavs to overcome. Orlando has SIX good to great 3-point shooters on their club, many of whom can score from inside and out. So when Dwight Howard decides to dominate like he did last night (the first time I’ve seen him look like a true future MVP), teams are forced to leave these gunners and pray that they miss.
For most of this series, they didn’t, and now Cleveland finds itself sitting at home watching the NBA Finals, much to the dismay of Nike and NBA Executives I’d imagine.
One of the assassins in last night’s game was Rashard Lewis.
At one point he was completely dominating Cleveland; hitting the 3-ball, driving to the rim and contorting his body in the air to score with his left, posting up and hitting the turn-around J, and even showing some mid-range form. He was a key player in the first and second quarter and a few of his open 3's seemed to demoralize the Cavs as he kept adding nails to Cleveland's coffin.
Suddenly, I found myself focusing on only Lewis when the Magic were on the attack, and it struck me that perhaps it was Lewis rather than Disco Dirk that Raptors’ fans should be comparing Andrea Bargnani’s developing game to.
In fact I’m not sure Andrea will ever get to the Dirk level for various reasons, but is it not quite feasible that Bargs could approach Rashard Lewis proportions?
If you watch Lewis closely in the finals, you’ll notice some eerie similarities between the two players:
-Both tend to start their offence from beyond the arc and work in
-Both are mismatches on the perimeter due to their foot-speed and athleticism
-Both are major long-range threats but are more volume shooters then pure marksmen ala Kapono or Nash (when they’re on they’re on, when they’re off, things can get ugly)
-Both lack in terms of mid-range game (a major difference between Andrea and Dirk at this point)
-Both are sub-par rebounders for their positions, but solid defensively one-on-one
Andrea is of course taller, but if you were to shrink him down a few inches, I’m not sure how much difference there is between these two in terms of style of play.
At points in last night's game I was able to even see similarities in terms of head fakes, jab steps and well, neither are exactly the most jubilant and expressive types on the court.
In fact, I went back and looked at the stats from Rashard Lewis’ third season in the NBA and compared them to those of Bargnani from last season:
FG% - .480
3P - 1.6-3.7
3P% - .432
FT - 2.3-2.7
FT% - .826
STL - 1.2
BLK - 0.6
TO - 1.7
REB - 6.9
AST - 1.6
PTS - 14.8
Now Andrea:
FG% - .450
3P - .1.5-3.7
3P% - .409
FT - 2.8-3.4
FT% - .831
STL - 0.4
BLK - 1.2
TO - 1.7
REB - 5.3
AST - 1.2
PTS - 15.4
Lewis is obviously the superior shooter right and rebounder, but the rest of the stats, right down to turnovers, are very similar.
Of course when Lewis was with Seattle in his third year, he had more of a dominant role in the offense whereas Andrea really came into his own later in the season in his third year.
Their third year PER’s reflect this with Lewis hitting nearly 20 (19.49) whereas Andrea sat just below 15 (14.66) last year. Interestingly though, if you compare Lewis’ current role with the Magic I think it’s a lot more of true compare to that of Andrea late last season, and Rashard’s PER during the regular season sat at 16.83, I believe reflects this.
Does this then mean that I think Andrea is the second coming of Rashard?
Not quite, as obviously Andrea still has some work to do to get to that level, but not only that, with his height advantage and what I believe eventually will be superior low-post play, it’s not impossible that he becomes Lewis version 2.0.
That’s not a bad building block if you are a Toronto Raptors’ fan, one that providing the team doesn’t overpay, could be a major force in the Eastern Conference. The hope is that this off-season he puts in the same amount of work on improving his game as he did last summer, in order to get to this level and beyond.
If that happens, suddenly taking a Rashard Lewis with advanced weaponry doesn’t seem like such a bad idea with the top pick in the 2006 draft.
It may never be Brandon Roy, but it’s certainly no Adam Morrison either.
FRANCHISE
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Now that's a very interesting point, something that never occurred to me. Does that mean then too that Andrea would be more effective playing at the 4? If so, maybe more ammo for the "trade Bosh" cannon eh?
by lurker on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I also thought this while watching the games. Hedo Turkoglu also has the same type of game only he is a much better passer.
by Sorael on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Good article. A lot of people panned Orlando for overpaying Lewis, but he really is a cool assasin. One thing Orlando did extremely well against Cleveland was to move the ball in, out and over, to get a clear shoot for the threes and Lewis was clutch. As great as he is, I was a little disappointed that Lebron didn't show more of a mid-range shooting game. Without exhibiting that option, Orlando's defense basically became a zone to stop Lebron's drives and stay up on the three point shooters. That was one of Bargnani's most signifcant improvements last year, making greater use of the pull up foul line jumper.I read somewhere recently that Kobe thinks that mid-range game is what separates himself and Dwayne Wade from everyone else.
by melon on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Good comparison to Lewis. To me Bargnani seems like the player that opposing teams have more trouble defending than Bosh. Not saying he's better right now, just as an opposing coach, he's a bigger problem.
Who do you put on him? A center? Bargs can take them out to the 3 point line and is also way better off the dribble than any center in the league.
A smaller player? Bargs seems to know when to post up much better now.
Bosh seems relatively easy to match up against. And, I don't like the tendency he has being shut down by lesser players like Varejo and good old Mikki Moore.
by Silverback on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
From the rumour mills at Hoopshype.
1. Raptors covet Tyreke in the draft above all (from some 'inside' source)
2. Three way trade where Boozer and Deng end up in T.O. and Bosh exits...
I'm no fan of the Bosh trade talk spec - but with CB making some special announcement tommorow ...
why the hell not?... you only live once....
by JENGE on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
i think bargani will be all round player better than lewis because of his defence and his block shots and bargani tend to attack the rim more then lewis and his drive and pull up jumpers is becoming dangerous to defend and bargani in the second half of the season was getting to the free throw line alot and i alo think bargani will beat lewis and bosh in 100meter sprint race lol
anyways here is highlight of imago http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgMUEig7Ebo&feature=related
by mobchester on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Hedo still drives me nuts but he played much better last night. And while no one's said much about it, Rafer has been a huge addition. Can you imagine that club minus Nelson and with Anthony Johnson (albeit a solid back-up option) running the point?
Saw the hoopshype talk. Problem of course is, will Evans even get to Toronto. I have a feeling he's gone top 7, maybe even top 5 once workouts really kick up a notch.
And I think it's a good point about Bargnani being more of a mismatch than Bosh. Bargnani's range and ball-handling allows him to get out on the perimeter further, thus negating the effects of many more physical defenders. If he can keep putting together his mid-range arsenal and work on his help D and low-post game, he should be a very tough cover for opponents.
by Franchise on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Speaking of ceilings and things that stick to it...
Have any of you seen Andrea Bargnani's pasta commercials...
wtf!?!
PS - too bad about tyreke being so coveted. Do you think its worth trading up? Even though I doubt that would happen... and in any case if Rubio was available... the point might be moot...
by JENGE on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
A feeling: Earl Clark will be the pick.I don't have a huge opinion on that - he seems like he's got a huge upside and possibly head. But the way things may fall, I see Clark the best of the rest with Griffin, Thabeet, Rubio, Harden, Hill, Evans,Derozan, and possibly Holliday or Johnson gone already. Curry will drop. I think BC was hoping to get a scorer with the first pick and snag a scoring point later. He might be better to take a Flynn first and go for a big like Hansborough later. We'll see.
As for the comparison of Lewis to Bargnani, and the assertion that Bosh is an easier match up than Bargnani - are you high? Bargnani is tougher to defend because he is similar to Bosh in skill set and the best defender will be busy on Bosh. Sticking Bargnani as the first threat is going to change the way he looks on the floor.
by EaseMyPain on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Funny, I just assumed you meant Hedo, but I see what you're getting at. Hard to say what Andrea's ceiling is, but he'll definitely be something other than Dirk Nowitzki. Andrea will never be that kind of rebounder, but I think he'll be a better defender - well, he couldn't be any worse.
Interesting that the Raps covet Tyreke Evans. He doesn't blow you away with his athleticism, but he's a very clever player who can play both guard positions. More importantly, he excelled at the college level. Some mock drafts have Derozan falling all the way to #9, although I have a feeling that won't happen after all the workouts are done. He's the kind of player scouts love due to his size and explosive athleticism, even if his college resume isn't that impressive. To give his his due, though, he played quite well towards the end of the season and displayed a nice mid-range game. Intriguing!
by Skywalker on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Why is everyone in Raptorland so high on Evans? The book on him is that he has no shot and in TO he would be asked to be a SG; If you draft him as a PG then Ukic is redundant and likely gone thereafter.
Either way, with the lack of talent this team has, it should be drafting the best available talent notwithstanding position; so if Evans is available and he is at the top of the chart then grab him, but I like Derozan much more for this team.
However, chances are both will be gone by the 9 spot. It would be interesting to hear from one of those people who said that winning a few more games WASN'T going to hurt us; I bet they'd trade in those meaningless W's for a chance to draft 7th right now.
Rob
by 2nd Raps fan in LA on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I have been of the trade Bosh and let Bargs develop mindset since November.
The Raptors would eventually need to add a rugged rebounder, who operates near the basket on both ends. Although they should do that even if they keep Bosh, who is definitely an overhyped rebounder.
If the Raptors can fill a couple of holes and gain some cap flexibility/space going forward by dealing Bosh, I will be a very happy man.
by JBen on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
The Bosh/Boozer, Deng deal is interesting, but by my calculation, there is 7 million more in salary coming in than going out. Ther may be more, but how they calculate between seasons is a mystery to me. That means that someone else has to go, and as long as it is Banks, I am good with it.
by BOWG on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
It was also interesting to find out that Rashard’s 3rd year wasn’t a play-off year either. Actually, neither was his 4th – but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. That co-incidence I can do without.
Lewis is turning 30, putting up numbers that have Orlando where everyone wants to be. Andrea is turning 24, and catching up fast to Lewis’ numbers. People quote his year numbers, but I tend to think of Andrea as playing more his speed (consistently too) from January on – almost like he was in his 4th season. As for Rashard, he’ll be making 18.8 million next year (on his way to 23.8), while Bargs will get a measly 6.5 mil. :-)
All that said, I can only hope one co-incidence rings true.
by RapthoseLeafs on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
like lurker says, rashard is also a 4, which bargnani to me obviously is, and he's mentioned that in interviews even this summer that his natural position is at the 4.
definitely 'trade bosh ammo' lurker.. one of things I makes me a little bit ok with such a thought
by axl on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Could Bosh's "big" announcement be that he's activating his player option year, and will be with the Raps for another year?
by RapthoseLeafs on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Could Bosh's surprise be that he is converting to islam?
He could be changing his name like cat stevens and muhhamad ali did back in the day...
If he does then sign me up for that new jersey!
Shukran!
by JENGE on May 31, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
BOWG - NBA trade rules allow teams to take on salary as long as they have the cap space to do it (and I believe Toronto will). Basically the rules of offsetting salaries or salary matching applies only to teams who are over the cap or the trade will put them over the cap. If that trade put the Raps a million over then they would only have to send out a million dollars in salary or enough salary to make the trade the equivalent to the 10% rule.
I still think that taking Curry is a safer bet. Maybe he will never be anything more than a 6th or 7th man but he will contribute right away and can you really say that about anyone else in the draft Toronto is likely to be looking at in 9th spot.
2nd Raps Fan - The extra wins didn't hurt us as moving up a spot or two would only leave Raps management more likely to blow the pick with someone shooting up the board based on workouts. Instead we can kick back and watch as incompetent team after incompetent team jump at guys who will be gone in 3 years.
by McGateway on Jun 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
.. good article, and just to make the discussion more interesting, Bags can guard Lewis but Lewis cannot guard Bargs, there are a few highlights of bargas against Orlando when they tried Howard on Bosh and Lewis on Bargs, it ended up with Lewis watching Andrea hitting a turnorund jumer from 4 meter once and and Lewis making a fault on Andrea the other... are you sure Lewis is looking down on Andrea? My take on it Andrea is already more of a match up nightmare already
by renato on Jun 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I really don't get how people can say Bosh is an overhyped rebounder when he's been avg about 10 reb per game for the last 4 seasons!
Bargnani's ceiling can only be whatever he is actually able to accomplish on the floor, alot of players have had size and skills to match some have been used those strenghts to their advantage, some have done moot. For 2 seasons he did moot more often than not, this past season he did good a little more than he did bad so all I can do is cross my fingers and hope for the best.
by Childlike on Jun 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I was reading a blog on why Orlando won and something was mentioned that struck me as pertinent for the Raptors.
"[2nd quarter, 4:55] The Orlando 4-out/1-in: The single most effective offensive scheme we've seen from any team in the postseason. Everyone on the floor and on both benches knows it's coming.
When Howard gets the ball off the left block, the Cavs promptly send a double-team, as Delonte West joins Varejao on the cover. Howard has gotten so good at sizing up the backside of the defensive zone in this situation. He takes a looks at his four shooters spread around the arc. At first glance, there isn't much there. For all of Cleveland's problems this series, they're still one of the best defensive teams in basketball, and they rotate very well early in this set. Orlando realizes that in order to work itself an open shot, someone has to scramble the defense.
That's when Courtney Lee dives hard for the basket from the top of the arc. LeBron James, who has been monitoring the top of the floor, has no choice but to pick up Lee on the cut. When Lee cuts, Lewis fills that open space up top, where Howard finds him for the wide open three-pointer. Lewis drains it. He finishes with 18 points on the night, capping off a solid series.
What disintegrates the Cleveland defense? Lee's basket cut. A less-disciplined team would settle for a mediocre shot after their first option doesn't get them the open look they want. Not the Magic. They're so patient, so confident that they can get something out of the possession, even if it takes them deep into the shot clock. Lee never actually touches the ball, yet he's the catalyst. How many teams execute an offense where off-the-ball players routinely create shots?"
How many times did we complain that no one on the Raptors seemed to cut while our post players had the ball (or our PGs for that matter)?
by McGateway on Jun 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

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