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Pressssshah…

BC did better than most last time he had a lottery pick.  The pressure is on for him to at least hit that mark again.

BC did better than most last time he had a lottery pick. The pressure is on for him to at least hit that mark again.

According to the early NBA Draft rumours floating around the Toronto Raptors are:

1. Looking at a swingman at the nine spot

2. Looking at buying an additional pick in the late first round

3. Looking at trading Kris Humphries to the Clippers for the rights to Blake Griffin, considering their salaries will be similar next year.

Ok…I made the last one up. (Although as discussed yesterday, it is the Clippers we’re talking about here.)

But the point of the third marker was to get some Friday morning discussion going and I ask you this:

"Is this the most important draft in Raptors’ history to date, or at least in terms of Bryan Colangelo’s career?"

I’m going with yes and here’s why.

As I sat yesterday reading through the latest round of draft buzz I got thinking about how most of this year’s lottery crop are viewing this draft as just another piece to their overall puzzle.

-Donald Sterling and the Clippers are thrilled at another rent-a-star they can take to the bank for three to four seasons before letting him go for nothing,

-Memphis has been on the verge of relocating or going bankrupt now for the last few years and nothing short of another Lebron is going to change that via the draft,

-Oklahoma is sitting pretty waiting to see how the other two "franchises" drafting ahead of them let things play out,

-Sacramento and Washington may not even keep their picks after falling out of the top three spots,

-Minnesota is continuing with its ever-present rebuilding project,

-Who knows what’s going on in Golden State,

-New York is still trying to take baby steps out of the Isiah Thomas era,

-And the other remaining lottery teams like Indiana, Milwaukee, and Phoenix were close enough last year that some good health and another solid addition even late in the draft should put them back in the playoff mix next season.

But let’s think about the Raptors for a second.

If Toronto blows this pick; as in the selection doesn’t have an immediate impact, even in terms of spot minutes off the bench, it’s quite possible that things start to go awry very quickly this off-season isn’t it? Because if BC can’t get the necessary help he needs via free-agency and the ninth pick in the draft turns into another Hoffa, then suddenly this team looks very much like the sub-500 squad it was last year, which doesn’t bode very well for retaining Chris Bosh.

Now granted, perhaps that’s a bit of a doomsday scenario but the way Bryan Colangelo is lining up his ducks, isn’t the first spin of the barrel in his game of Bosh-roulette the draft? Because let’s be real here. As much as the Raptors want to say that they’re "not far off," we all know this team needs a legit back-up point guard, a shot-creating swingman of some sort, bench depth, rebounding help, and an overall upgrade in toughness. And those are just the obvious needs.

Not all of these needs of course can be addressed via free agency and that’s why it’s crucial that whoever is selected at nine lends some sort of immediate help. If not, the temperature on that oven surrounding BC is surely going to ratchet up a few notches.

And really, this pressure exists solely because of the corner Bryan appears to be painting himself into. He let it be known during his end-of-the-year talk with the media that he has no intention of dealing CB4 this summer, and will wait until next summer if necessary to see how things play out with Bosh. Of course, I don’t have to reiterate why I feel this is a bad idea on several levels but let’s look at a best and worst-case scenario here.

Best case is that Colangelo upgrades the team’s talent this off-season, the club stays healthy and wins about 50 games next year, and finally gets past the first round in the playoffs. Is that enough to convince Bosh to stay? Who knows, and as a best-case scenario, it’s not exactly ideal, because even if the team has that sort of success and Bosh still decides he wants out, then at that late stage will Colangelo even be able to get the proverbial fifty cents on the dollar in return for CB4?

On the other side, BC’s off-season moves don’t work out, the team sits around last year’s putrid record, and then the low-ball offers for Bosh start coming fast and furious even before the NBA trade deadline.

So what’s BC to do?

Well, I’m not the only one who feels he should be looking at trade scenarios this summer but if he’s bound and determined to make one more go of it next year with a new roster, then it has to start with the upcoming draft.

Another questionable lottery pick and as previously stated, things are only going to get tougher for Raptors’ management, something I’m not sure the club can’t afford in their quest to keep Bosh. And if Bosh can’t be retained, or if another substantial player or two can’t be obtained in return for his services, where does that leave this franchise? I’d argue that not since the final days of Vince Carter is more hinging on management decisions in regards to this club’s future. The last thing we fans want is to be another Clippers or even Bucks, and unfortunately, that scenario is quite possible if Bosh departs for little in return as this team will be in full rebuild mode all over again.

And what about Colangelo himself?

He was viewed as a basketball savant when he arrived, a Renaissance Man compared to previous Raptors’ GM’s if you will. However Bargnani aside, his drafts have been littered with strange second-round selections and another failed selection can’t bode well for his future, dare-I-say not only with the Raptors, but also within the NBA itself?

Again, perhaps a bit on the melodramatic side and maybe the draft isn’t the be all end all here, but there’s no question that hitting even a double come June 25th will go a long way in assisting the Raptors’ brain-trust with the pressure-cooker that is this off-season.

Or as they’d say in the drum n’ bass I’ve been listening to almost exclusively as of late, the presssshah.

For the sake of the Raptors I’m hoping BC gets things right with this pick.

I strongly feel that the club can ill-afford another strikeout (sticking with the baseball analogy) as the draft is the domino that needs to fall correctly in order to set up the free-agent time period. If some of the Raps’ needs can be properly attended to via the lottery then this could indeed go a long way towards righting this franchise’s ship.

On the other hand, a poor selection might be the first fatal crack in Colangelo’s off-season plans and a year from now we fans might indeed be yelling, Selectah, reeeeeeeeeeeeewind!

FRANCHISE

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Might be interesting here to point out some of BC's draft choices.

1996 - 1st rnd - pick 15
Steve Nash

1997 - 2nd round - pick 42
Stephen Jackson

1998 - no pick

1999 - 1st rnd - pick 9
Shawn Marion

2000 - 1st rnd - pick 25
Iakovos Tsakalidis
(worst draft class in NBA history)

2001 - pick 51 - alton ford

2002 - 1st rnd - pick 9
Amaré Stoudemire

2003 - 1st round - pick 15
Zarko Cabarkapa
1st round - pick 28
Leandro Barbosa

I think this hisotry shows that he's been incredible drafting at the #9 pick, can really build a team around the draft, and has a knack for getting quality late in draft (barbosa + stephen jackson).

I'm feeling very good about having the draft in BC's hands.

by andre on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Franchise, you’ve often repeated your theory that Bosh is worth most now, yet you haven’t explained your rational. I believe quite the opposite. If you are bent on trading Bosh, no better time than next summer. Right now, you are limited to, I don’t know, two teams that believe they have a chance of re-signing Bosh. Not many will give up a lot for a one year rental (at least not until the trade deadline).

However, if you fast forward to next summer, you have D-Wade who has re-uped and James who decides to stay. That leaves Bosh as the jewel of the Nile for the group of teams that have been clearing cap space. I think the beauty pageant of players/picks teams will send our way for a sign and trade will be one for the ages.

I completely disagree with the notion that Bosh should be traded. However, even if he should, now is not the time.

by Zona on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Has anyone else noticed the similarities between Orlando and the Raptors? The Raptors are like a poor man’s Magic.

Both teams were built from the same mold, have an athletic big who can dominate surrounded by shooters. Only trouble is, Orlando has better skill set at every position. But we are almost the mirror image of that team. Just look at some of the similarities. Is AP not the same type of player as Turkoglu? Can shoot the three, bring the ball up the court and play half decent D. Bosh Vs. Howard? Same player. Bosh a much better free throw shooter but Howard much tougher in the paint and a better shot blocker. We even have our Kapono to their JJ.

So …. If:
1 Calderon has a bit more pep in brining the ball past half court
2 we sign and trade Marion for a solid 2/3
3 we draft a solid 2/3
4 Bosh comes back the same player he was in November
5 Bargnani continues his development
We suddenly match up quite well against the Magic skill set which we know is good enough to get to the conference finals.

Lot’s needs to happen, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. All of a sudden "We’re not far off" doesn’t sound far off.

by Zona on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Zona - Bosh has a player option for the 2010-11 season. So if he wants to opt out of his deal after next year he can and thus will become an unrestricted free-agent. Opposing GM's know this so know that BC will need to either:

a) have Bosh under contract by June 25th (ETO date for players who would become unrestricted free agents) or

b) move him prior to July 1 unless they want to risk losing him for nothing.

As we get closer to those deadlines, I think it's going to be tougher and tougher for BC to get a fair deal. So even if Bosh becomes the Jewel of the Nile as you stated, if he's made it known that he doesn't want to return to Toronto, and you're a team with cap space, why would you try and give the Raptors a good trade offer? Bosh isn't going to re-sign with Toronto so knowing that, you can either low-ball offers (as BC will be in a Babcock situation at that point needing to at least get SOMETHING in return for Bosh) or you wait it out and hope your offer lures Bosh to your team as opposed to other competitors who have cap space.

That's why if this team doesn't substantially improve next year, the lure of the Raptors being able to offer more money than other teams is going to have to be enough for Bosh to stay.

And even if the team does have its best season in franchise history, Bosh still may be seeking greener pastures and if that's the case, then the best time to get max value for him I'd argue is right now.

by Franchise on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

That's why I think the "Bosh recruitment process" started with Jay Triano and continues with this draft.

Oh, and a little while ago someone was asking where BC had ever said that Bosh was the franchise-piece or a max player.

I found this quote from when CB4 signed his last deal:

``We're here today talking about the future of this franchise,'' Colangelo said. ``This is a terrific opportunity to address making Chris Bosh the cornerstone of the foundation as we move forward building this franchise.''

"the cornerstone" isn't necessarily "max contract player," but I'd say that's the same as "franchise-piece" and as close to saying "max player" as possible.

by Franchise on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Wow... great post Andre.
Amazing to see the history.

I definitely feel good with BC in the drivers seat and a decent draft class.

by mcclarky on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Good discussion. I'm for trading Bosh, and I have to agree with Zona that I really don't think his value decreases much over the next season. May even increase based on him being the prized free agent in 2010, because I really doubt Lebron or Wade are going anywhere.

That said, I think BC needs to explore what offers he gets this year for Bosh, but not panic. Can always do a sign and trade in 2010.

by Silverback on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Franchise, the tone IS a little doomsday today. It's actually hard to say whether the choice made on June 25th is the right one until well into the season, or maybe even a couple of seasons in. What the team needs more than anything to return to playoff contention next year (assuming the return of Marion and the transition of Parker to a backup role) is a viable bench with more athleticism and I trust BC to at least accomplish that.

Zona, watching Orlando I was thinking the same thing about how they epitomize the ideal case of what looks to be the Raptor Formula, even down to the blown leads in earlier playoff rounds. Is that championship caliber? Don't know (they don't even have their starting PG available to them), we'll see but it is upper echelon in the conference which is a good place to be at.

It would be interesting if someone could pull the stats on the coaches that have made the playoffs regularly the past decade. Those faces seem more common than the actual teams. I would say teams like the Clippers, Bucks, and Grizzlies have done a very poor job in the past of hiring coaches, with their successful years coming when they had good coaches (Hubie Brown coached the Grizz to a 50 win season). Part of the Raptors mismanagement in the past has had to do with their going cheap on coaching...hmmm. Hope Triano can change that trend.

by Interloper on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

The orlando comparison is one thats come up a lot on the site. I think franchise was talking about it after their series against philly actually too. Both teams are jump shooting clubs that tend to let leads get away from them and have a dominant big man and lots of shooters around him.

But as you guys said, orlandos surrounding cast is a lot better.

Nice to see the stats on bc andre, hopefully he can keep his trend going next month.

by fromlongrange on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

As an aside, you have to like Triano's appointment to the US national team this summer... if the experience is deemed valuable for players, it has to be just as valuable for coaches. Now, BC probably had more than a little to do with the appointment considering his pop is running US Basketball... but Triano is clearly respected as someone who understands international ball and NAB ball... which should prove to be an obvious reason why he was retained for the Raps. Not a bad reason either...

by lessthanzero on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Good stuff to hear about Triano!

I understand as Rap fans we are still recovering from an emotionally abusive season....

... but whats up with all the doom and gloom??!...

Even if Bosh leaves...blah blah... its the uniform that I respek... and its not going anywhere soon...

(although I would like to see them resurrect the TO Huskies blue and white jerseys..... or the pajama party dinosaur pin stripes)

by JENGE on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Lessthanzero

FYI - Triano has been assistant coach to the USA team in the past also...this isnt a first

by Blanco on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Bargnani and Bosh cannot coexist because they are both essentially meant to play the 4 spot (PF). Furthermore, I don't think Bosh will bolt if he sees that the team is moving in the right direction. Here's what I think needs to be done.

Toronto trades:
Andrea Bargnani
Jason Kapono

Memphis trades:
Rudy Gay
Marko Jaric

Why the trade is good for Toronto. Well it clears out the roles of each player. Rudy Gay is clearly a small forward; he is young, has good ball handling skills, plays sound defence, is used to being the go-to guy and is able to contribute immediately to the team’s success. Marko Jaric is a better ball handler than Jason Kapono, has good size, plays sound defence and can create his own shot.

- Andrea Bargnani although good, has not shown he can play consistently well for a whole season playing a high volume of minutes. Bosh has.
- Bargnani has not yet established a strong post presence which will be important in creating space for other players to get shots. Bosh has.
- Bargnani would need a period to get readjusted to playing the PF position. Bosh is already quite familiar with the PF position.

Trading Bargnani instead of Bosh simply makes more sense in making the team competitive now; getting Rudy Gay in the trade assures the team will also be more competitive in the future.

The Raptors could then draft players strictly based on who they like (Earl Clark, Dejuan Blair, Stephen Curry).
They would then be in a position to do a sign-n-trade with Shawn Marion for a good starting SG/SF (Jamal Crawford, Quentin Richardson, Ben Gordon) or a strong backup PF/C (Boris Diaw, Stromile Swift, Ron Artest).
With the reduction in salary expected in Shawn Marion’s salary as well as by letting go Joey Graham, an expected saving of about 10 million bucks, the Raptors would be in a position to sign a free agent to answer any remaining need (Zaza Pachulia, Channing Frye, Charlie Villanueva).

Tentative starting lineup:
Jose Calderon
Anthony Parker OR Jamal Crawford, Quentin Richardson, Ben Gordon, Stephen Curry
Rudy Gay
Chris Bosh
Patrick O’Bryant OR (most likely) Zaza Pachulia, Channing Frye, Dejuan Blair

by Childlike on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

We've got to dissociate Bosh's fate from from what needs to be done this off-season. Playing connect-the-dots with past roster mistakes seems to be a favorite pastime in Raptor nation. Do that enough times, you either become jaded or start flaming ESPN personalities for perceived slights. It's a slippery slope folks.

Franchise, I'm in agreement that ideally, the player we draft is able to contribute for at least 15 minutes in a reserve role on the wing. This takes on even more importance with the uncertainty surrounding Shawn Marion's situation. Any market for his services would be limited, no guarantees that what we get back will fit a positional need.

In the big picture, the draft is always an investment in the future. Whether they mature in the short-term or long-term will undoubtedly play a part in how players are ranked on the team's "big board". IMHO, if a raw high potential player is drafted first, BC dives headfirst into the picks for sale market. The two other teams I've heard in the market are Houston and San Antonio, both in the same conference (West) as most of the rumored lower picks for sale. I can see Western Conf sellers preferring to sell to us, so that the success of that late pick doesn't get rubbed in their face too often. What hurts Suns' fans more, Rondo on the Celtics, or Rudy Fernandez on the Blazers.
BC needs to turn that 3 million into an actual roster asset, since there are no guarantees that reinforcements will come via free agency. That's why I was disappointed that Sam Young couldn't go against T-Will in workouts. From the mock draft's I've seen, Young seems like the player available late (ie mid 20s) who best matches some of what T-Will brings to the table.

I don't expect all our weaknesses to be shored up in one off-season. I do want progress made towards the goal of adding athleticism and toughness to the team, things we need regardless of whether Bosh stays or goes.
If we knew Bosh was on the outs, Blair would make a great part of a 3 man bigs rotation alongside Bargs. Thinking long term with a late pick, I've read Omri Casspi compared to Nocioni, provided he irons out his 3pt shot out before leaving Europe. Could be a great option to add some size to the SF, something that has to happen eventually IMHO.

by yardly on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

yardly - Interesting point about the Western teams being the ones selling as yes, it's quite logical that they'd be much more willing to let said prospect go East then see them potentially blow up in their own conference or even worse, their own division.

PS - Childlike - the only reason I want Jaric here is so I can figure out how to entrap him in some prostitution scandal. Then Adriana Lima is finally mine!

by Franchise on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

The team is a million years away from contention. I've crossed over to hater status guys, sorry but I can't take it.

If you step back and look at the franchise, take off the fan's glasses....it's pathetically sad.

I think it was the end of season feel good interviews that did it for me. If the players don't give a shit about embarrassing themselves, as evidenced by their "who cares" physical demeanours, why would I care to watch?

Colangelo should've had it pasted to him in that main interview, but instead rambled on in his annoying way with 60 minutes of excuses.

I would take the Inaugral season of Damon Stoudemire and Carlos Rogers, etc. over this overpaid bunch of whimps anyday.

Hire a bunch of rookies or hacks and what do you expect: Coaches, countless rookie asst. coaches, scouts, 10 day contracts, on and on.... (Hoffa's pal Jim Kelly is still with the team, right?)

Keep Bargs and José and trade the rest.

Long live Toronto Junglist Massive. (Old school of course.)

by DayOner on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't see Orlando and Toronto as that similar. Dwight Howard and Bosh are both highly talented young big men, but they are very different players. Bosh scores on mid range jumpers or by beating his man off the dribble. Howard scores in the paint this allows the Magic to play inside-out). Bosh is a goog rebounder, but nowhere near the rebounding phenom that Howard is, especially at the offensive end. The biggest difference is on the defensive end though. Neither Bosh or Bargnani will ever have close to the defensive impact that Dwight Howard has with the way he patrols the paint.

I guess you could say that Bargnani is a comparable player to Turkoglu, but you can run your offense through Turkoglu though. Who plays like Rashard Lewis though?

by JBen on May 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

U guys never cease to amaze with the diversity of posts - just wanted to throw that out there and send a few BO BO BO's out to all the shottas and jungalists! Keep up the great morning reads HQ.

by heavyc on May 23, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

An intersting problem occurs to me. The best pick to buy in the upcoming draft is actually Phoenix's due to financial reasons (they could use the 3 million in cash and they cannot afford to have to pay another player). The problem of course is that Phoenix has been reluctant to trade with Toronto in the past due to BC. It is kind of a shame that we are stuck in this position.
I agree with the view that this franchise is screwed if they cannot find the pieces they need this offseason but I still disagree that trading Bosh for bad contracts is the answer. In fact, if they can draft a decent player in this draft and simply let Bosh walk next year, I think they could be in a good position going forward to both keep their cap numbers reasonable and make a push in a couple of years. The last thing this team needs is more over paid players with contracts that go on for more than 2 years and I still think that is what we are going to end up with in a trade for Bosh.

by McGateway on May 23, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

I agree wholeheartedly with McGateway on this one, I rather see Bosh just walk out and leave the Raptors with a ton of money to work with than have a bunch of potentially good players on contracts that may or may not end up being good.

The Raptors will never get anything of equal value for Bosh. If a team thinks their young stud will be remotely as good as Bosh they'll keep him and groom him and enjoy the cheaper salary.

No team will do a superstar trade with the Raptors (except maybe Phoenix with Stoudemire, but even then I think Bosh can do more things on the floor than Amare so Raps lose that trade).

The only trade Raps will get, will consist of a second tier player along with a rookie which won't make the Raptors any better anytime soon. I'd be much happier if the Raptors got some draft picks for Bosh and they can get those next year IF, I repeat IF, Bosh chooses to bolt.

by Childlike on May 23, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Blanco,

I know he ran the practice squad prior to last years Olympic. Just because he's done it before doesn't diminish the achievement. My understanding is that this is a bit of a promotion from his position last summer. And wouldn't you say being called back is another endorsement?

by lessthanzero on May 23, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't see why it's so difficult to draft a great player in the NBA. You simply find a 6'8", 250lb, jumping jack that runs like the wind, handles the ball like it's got a string to his hand, is unselfish and can hit a three pointer from the top of the key with 1 second left in a game. I refuse to believe that we can't find our own Lebron. (dream sequence ends, reality sets in).

by melon on May 23, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Melon - comment of the week. I used to think those "Witness" shirts were a bit ridiculous but last night's shot by Lebron made me rethink things...

Also, the "letting Bosh" walk angle is an interesting one for a future blog entry. In the past, this was always viewed as a "worst case" scenario since TO couldn't attract free-agents. Hard to say if that's still the case although I want to ask prospects in the upcoming workouts that we'll be attending what their take is on that.

by Franchise on May 23, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Childlike, I disagree completely that letting Bosh walk for draft picks is better than a trade. Isn’t 50% on the dollar better than 0? I’d take Monta Ellis and Anthony Randolph alone in a trade before I let Bosh walk away for draft picks, are you guys kidding me? I will never understand that logic. I’m not saying that we trade him for a bunch of bad/long contracts, but if we could get one young guy who is already locked up to a long term contract, eg. Ellis, Biedrins, Ben Gordon etc .and one or two decent role players to improve our depth, I’d take that instead of ending up with nothing.

You’re putting a lot of stock in draft picks, what if we end up with the #12 pick from who ever we sign and trade Bosh to next year and draft a dud? Its one thing if we sign and trade for the #1,2or3 picks next year but chances are Bosh won’t be going to the clippers, Memphis or Minnesota. I don’t agree that letting him walk for nothing is a good idea. I do agree however that we should start the season with him and see how we do and maybe make a trade before the deadline. Having said all that, the talk out of raptor land is that BC has decided to go all the way with Bosh next season and explore a sign and trade with whoever he choose to leave for, IF he actually leaves.

by Member29 on May 23, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

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